'mw- E's-Mme moon AHLI we HEB i lAumomyMuQ l Si By me Dates-3 9 UNITED STATES ARMS CONTROL AND AGENCY Waehington Office of the Director STAT Jammnv-w may I 3 E012953 25X MEMBRANDUH FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE 1 am enclosing a copy of an outline of a program to prevent the Spread of nuclear weapons which might afford a basis for a study by Roe Gilpetrio in conjunction with the Committee of Principals William C Foster Enol Program to Limit the Spread of Nuclear weapons paper LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 5 Declassified when separated fr Encl DECLAHSIFIED 1 0 13 130 3 Ono QQMUU A 4 FWW DtULAtib'u-itu newsman By me 0319 519 This document consists of 3- pages Series A LIMITED DISTRIBUTIQII NOV 3 1954 T0 LIMIT THE SPREAD 0F NUCLEAR WEAPONS There are today at least three or four states in addition to the nuclear powers which could make a decision to develop nuclear weapons with assurance they have the capability to support this decision The detonation of a nuclear device by the Chinese Com munists will place increasing domestic pressure on additional countries to make a national decision to develop nuclear weapons In some cases this pressure will be based on reasons of security in other cases it will be based on reasons of prestige The number of states that could develop nuclear weapons will increase as nuclear technology continues to develop throughout the world Because of regional rivalries a national decision by any additional countries may force other countries perhaps technically less qualified to engage in an all out effort to acquire nuclear weapons either by development or by other means GROUP 3 Downgraded at 12 year - LIMITED DISTRIBUTION swam 4 u t I l n - 1 1- mun L W - - Aumo tyW f wag NARA Dates-gin LIMITED DISTRIBTUIQE 2 The present period is a critical one for if effective barriers are not achieved now we will probably be unable to achieve them later Annex A of this paper sets forth an over-all program for the purpose of limiting the spread of nuclear weapons It is ideration by the panel appointed by the President drafted for cons in conjunction with the the Chairmanship of Mr Gilpatric It is suggested that it unde form the basis Committee of Principals program It encompasses a for development of a detailed action wide range of action including the following 1 Actions stimulating adverse reaction to Chinese Communist testing 2 Bilateral actions to prevent individual states from embarking on nuclear weapons programs 3 Actions to impede the spread of technical 0 develop and produce nuclear weapons capabilities required 4 Actions in the General Assembly to develop a political consensus favorable to a non-proliferation agreement and to stimulate non-acquisition policy statements pending achieve- ment of such an agreement EMITED DISTRIBTUIQE Ids-t 1 Aumomyuun s'w 35 52 mm maes m LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 3 - S negotiation with the Soviet Union of a non proliferation agreement open to accession by all states and development of a position on MLF which will facilitate such an agreement 6 Action to prevent the proliferation of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles 7 Negotiation of a comprehensive test ban This is an over-all program for action In considering this program however two basic considerationS'must be recognized First the above areas of action are not of equal importance While action in all areas should be undertaken we must keep in mind that the two most important areas -- the two Where successful action is most likely to assure success in preventing nuclear spread -- are the comprehensive test ban and a formal political agreement on non-proliferation Second the relation between the MLF and a formal political 1 agreement on non-proliferation is within the government the most controversial and also possibly the most important of the LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - -- u u - Aumomuuo m 4 NARA 03 35 21 Ea 'ff ff LIMITED DISTRIBUTION -4- recommendations of the suggested action program This recommendation proposes that the non-proliferation agreement prohibit the creation of additional independent entities controlling the use of nuclear weapons The discussion withinihis government concerning the relation Ship of the MLF to non-proliferation has been directed to the question of whether actions taken to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons might somehow slow the develOpment of the MLF The extent to which the prospects for are dependent on the success of a non-proliferation program has been largely overlooked The prOSpects for an MLF are dependent upon the success of a non-proliferation program in two respects In the first place a general acceptance of the fact that the MLF is a step against proliferation of nuclear weapons is necessary for agreement on _the MLF by some countries whose participation is necessary In the second place a successful non-proliferation program is essential for a stable relationship between the Federal Republic of Germany and the MLF If the political and barrier which now restrains proliferation is broken down the MLF might cease to be a workable entity Should India Israel Japan or LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 3 mm- 111110 in 334 62 mm 031351731 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 5 Sweden acquire an independent nuclear capability the Federal Republic of Germany would doubtless come to feel that it had accepted second-class status in limiting its nuclear power to that provided by the MLF In this case one of the principal_ objectives of the MLF that of providing a political framework in which the nuclear aspirations of the EEG could be satisfied would no longer be attainable gage - LIMITED DISTRIBUTION iAumomyMum - ECLASSI Ht mm 03135391 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION UNITED STATES ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT AGENCY gasses RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A PROGRAM TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS The following are recommendations for a program to limit the spread of nuclear weapons It is proposed that the outline of recommendations in this paper serve as the basis for development of a detailed action program 1 Stimulating adverse reactions to the Chinese Communist test A continued and aggressive program to encourage the strongest and most universal adverse reaction to the Chinese Communist nuclear test is an essential part of any program for limiting the spread of nuclear weapons Circular instructions have already been issued to underscore points calculated to produce the above reaction in foreign govern- ments These instructions have also asked the appropriate LIMITED DISTRIBUTION a DEGLASSIFIED -- Mitt mumongmuo i li y ELSL mm Datesgml - LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 2 - posts to protest to certain states which have been less than forthcoming in expressions of condemnation of the Chinese Communist test We have also urged those states which have not yet signed or having signed have not yet ratified the limited test ban treaty to do so In our continuing effort in this regard the following points should be stressed The limited test ban treaty was significant in preventing further poisoning of the atmosphere and opened the door towards additional steps towards peace Subsequent progress has been made and the groundwork has been laid for still further progress in such vital matters as stopping the spread of nuclear weapons to additional nations and halting and turning down the arms race All countries have a stake in continued progress The Chinese Communist test was a grave blow to worldwide hopes for disarmament progress It is the responsibility of all to condemn the Chinese Communists for flagrantly obstructing this course LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - I ll - DEGLASSIFIED EL I f mm mesa-cl LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 3 The U S should make it clear that it believes the same attitude should prevail with regard to any French atmospheric test USIA in consultation with ACDA and the Department of State should give priority attention to a public affairs program to support the above position In the forthcoming General Assembly the United States should support efforts which will inevitably develop to condemn atmospheric testing and urging adherence to the limited test ban 2 Bilateral actions to prevent individual states from embarking on nuclear weapons programs India The approved memorandum to the Committee of Principals dated October 14 1964 on The Indian Nuclear Problem Proposed Courses of Action outlines a program to reinforce India's stated policy of confining its nuclear development to peaceful purposes Its principal elements are LIMITED DISTRIBUTION UtULA sll ltU If Aumo ty um LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 4 - To open high-level dialogue with the Indians in order to inform ourselves of India's intentions and nuclear capabilities and to establish a continuing relationship regarding such matters To consider possible cooperation with India in developing projects in peaceful uses that will dramatize to the Indians and Afro-Asians the former's advanced scientific progress To consider giving confidential security assurances to the Indian Government reinforcing the general assurance to nations of the Asian area given publicly by the President To intensify efforts to build a restraining international climate by working through individual governs umnts which might influence the Indians privately as well as by promoting appropriate UN resolutions on non-proliferation ambassador Bowles has already opened the dialogue with Prime Minister Shastri Further action should be developed following the Ambassador's return from'Nev Delhi in mid- hovember 49% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION ff Maximum BVSL NARA Una- 5319 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 5 - Israel and the UAR 'Measures we have been taking with respect to Israel and the UAR should be allowed to continue on their present course Meanwhile we should explore the possibility of having the CAD Declaration on non-acquisition take on a binding character possibly through a formal agree- ment by the OAU Members If satisfactory progress towards this Objective is not forthcoming we should consult with - the British Canadians French West Germans and possibly the Soviets in an effort to restrict the supply of techno- logical information missiles and components to the UAR and Israel Sweden Sweden has been postponing a decision on whether or not to manufacture nuclear weapons an accom- plishment of which it is fully capable This is an internal political problem for the Swedish Government Since the _ChiCom detonation there have been no signs that the Swedish Government is changing its postponement policy and in the absence of such signs we should take no action to stir up the issue If we receive evidence that a change in policy Luann DISTRIBUTIQIE 1 I g 5 lAumo llqu 4' 351-52 - NARA Brawl LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 5 - is under consideration a subject on which Embassy Stockholm should be instructed to report fully we should adapt to Sweden the approach being used with India but work to the extent possible through other Nordic governments Owing to Sweden's domestic capabilities in the nuclear field it is questionable whether application of IAEA or other interna- tional safeguards would be possible or effective g p_n The initial reactions in Japan to the Chinese Communist detonation include demands from the Conservatives for a Japanese nuclear weapons program We should not how- ever leap to any conclusion that such demands will make headway inasmuch as World War II left the vast majority of the Japanese people with a deeply emotional abhorrence of having anything to dO With the military uses of nuclear power Furthermore a change in the Constitution would be required Nevertheless we should keep a close watch on the trend of Japanese thinking If the trend of Japanese developments require it we might engage in something of the same course of action we are using in India In any LIMITED DISTRIBUTION A - Uhumuun mu - at a lnumonwuum ELSE- NARA 0313522191 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 7 - case we should enforce to the maximum our policy of apply- ing IAEA safeguards to peaceful uses facilities in Japan We should also cooperate quietly with the Japanese in any appropriate display of their scientific capabilities they might undertake Federal Republic of Germany We should seek to write into the MLF Charter the maximum of politically acceptable restraints and indications of readiness to make the MLF subject to future arms control and disarmament agreements 3 Actions to impede the spread-of technical capabilities required to develop and produce nuclear weapons This portion of the program should involve four main courses of action Action should be taken to seek agreement among suppliers of nuclear materials and certain specialized equipment and non-nuclear materials to subject all exports of such materials and equipment to IAEA or similar safeguards All countries not having nuclear weapons should be encouraged to submit their peaceful nuclear activities to international safeguards These LIMITED DISTRIBUTION Aumomynuoi' i'li ELSL NARA Date-$211 - LIMITED DISTRIBUTION were made in general terms in the President's message of January 21 1964 to the Disarmament Conference and they have been reviewed in recent interagency discussions Draft suppliers and recipients agreements have been circulated to interested agencies ' Arrangements should be strengthened to prevent the dissemination of nuclear weapons technology including such developments as the gas-centrifuge process The efforts to strengthen the capabilities of the IAEA to assure the use of fissionable material for peaceful purposes only should be continued as well as the efforts to win acceptance of IAEA safe- guards Consultations should be held with a view to assumption by IAEA of safeguards respon- sibilities for certain of its activities LIMITED DISTRIBUTION i - - 4 Aumo ym Date-53 91 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 9 - 4 Action in the forthcoming General Assembly At the forthcoming General Assembly the U S should seek to develop the widest possible consensus favorable to an international agreement on non-proliferation thereby making an agreement more likely and making more difficult any national decision by non-nuclear powers prior to such an agreement to acquire a nuclear capability At the General Assembly the U S must also be concerned with heading off GA recommendations that such an agreement include prohibitions on our freedom of transit for nuclear weapons as called for at the Cairo Non-Aligned Conference or un- acceptable language regarding the MLF as desired by the USSR Our best chance to avoid such recommendations lies in adopt- ing a positive program which enhances the prospect of achieving an agreement Inter-agency agreement has been reached at the working level on tactics for promoting a draft resolution which would Stress the need for an international agreement as called for in the Irish Resolution of 1961 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 5 Authority 9 NARA 03 35 73 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION - 10 - 'Note the declarations of the governments participating in the recent Cairo conferences of the Organization of African Unity and of the Non Aligned states which expressed their readiness to undertake through an international agreement not to manufacture or acquire control of nuclear Weapons Record the readiness of all UN members who do not possess nuclear weapons to enter such an agreement and their intention meanwhile not to manufacture or otherwise acquire control of nuclear weapons Call upon all non-nuclear states to undertake the same obligation Record the readiness of the nuclear powers- to respect such undertakings and urge all states to pursue policies leading to the achievement of the objectives of this resolution Request the ENDC to draft the international agreement which would be open to all states and to report to the UN Disarmament Commission not later than 30 July 1965 and LIMITED DI UtULHoouucu f Aumomy u m 3 5L NARA Dam-51m LIMITED DISTRIBUTION -11- Request the UN Commission to meet to consider the agreement and make arrangements to bring it into force It has been thought advisable not to have the U S sponsor such a resolution but to entrust sponsorship to a friendly non-NAIO'government possibly Ireland even at the risk of our having less control This draft resolutionImeeds to avoid a GA call for a world conference to draft the agreement as favored by the OAU and Non-Aligned Conferences by assigning this task to We would hope to avoid a world conference altogether by proposing that the ENDC draft an agreement which would be considered and opened for signature by the Disarmament Come mission which includes all UN members and can be convened at any time To prepare the ground for the desired GA action the urgency of anagreementshould continue to be stressed in high-level U S statements Other world leaders should be encouraged to make similar statements LIMITED DISTRIBUTION 4 BLSL NARA muggy LIMITED -12- 5 ggotiation of a non proliferation agreement and develoument of a position on the MLE facilitating such an agreement The most important portion of the over-all program is obtaining a formal non-proliferation agreement under which the nuclear powers agree not to transfer nuclear weapons into the national control of individual states or assist such states to manufacture or acquire control of such weapons and the non-nuclear powers agree that they will neither manufacture nor acquire national control of nuclear weapons An agreement along those lines has been discussed with the Soviet Union for over two years Agreement between the U S and the USSR on such a draft is essential not primarily because we want a Soviet commitment not to proliferate nuclear weapons it is unlikely that they would do so even without an agreement but because U S and USSR cooperation is necessary to obtain the adherence to such an agreement of countries -- such as India Sweden -- that we are most anxious to have LIMITED DISTRIBUTION UCULHOGIFILU - Aumodry um b By 52 - NARA 0335331 456 4% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION -13- adhere The principal obstacles to an agreement with the USSR have been 1 the MLF and 2 the question of Chinese participation The Soviets have argued that the MIT will result in giving the Germans control over nuclear weapons and that so long as the U S proposes it any joint action on non- proliferation is barred Soviet opposition to the MLF wholly apart from the German acquisition of nuclear weapons may be so deep seated that they will not take any constructive action concerning the Spread of nuclear weapons until there has been a decision on MLF one way or another However when the new regime in the USSR is evaluating its position in the field of armaments the U S should be prepared to give the Soviets assurances which cover their concern about the MLF being a step toward the acquisition of an independent nuclear capability by the FRG The first step should be a follow through on the presently planned discussion by the Secretary of State LIMITED DISTRIBUTION UtULA oll'ltU L- Aumo gw4 By 52 NARA 03 25 73 619% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION with Gromyko in New York explaining the MLF safeguards to prevent unauthorized use of nuclear weapons or dis- closure of nuclear weapons information Even more important is an assurance that the'MLF will not be just one in a series of steps which end up with the Germans having an independent or dominant control over a nuclear weapons force The U S has previously attempted to solve this problem by assurances that MLF forces could not be used by national decision_of any country not now possessing nuclear weapbns This still held open the possibility of a European force which could be controlled by a group not consisting of the present nuclear powers and which would in effect be an additional independent decision-making entity controlling the use of nuclear weapons in which the Federal Republic of Germany could be the dominant member We have indicated to the Soviets through Prime Minister Luns that while we do not exclude different control arrange- ments from one involving a U S veto in the context of movement 453% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION madam NARA Date-53 91 LIMITED DISTRIBUTIQD -15- toward European unity such charges would require U S concurrence and would undoubtedly imply political evolution in Europe which would involve the melding of the present national nuclear forces into an MLF context So far however we have not been prepared to incorporate into a non-proliferation agreement a commitment that would in effect prevent the U S from relinquishing its veto unless either the UK or France melded their nuclear forces into the MLF This position has been based on a belief that to do so would place the UK in a position where they could in effect veto future MLF evolution without joining whereas since they may be concerned about such possible evolution they might join the MLF to gain a veto right Given the present political situation with respect to the MLF this reason now seems clearly more theoretical than real We should therefore be prepared to include in a proposed non-proliferation agreement an assurance that the MLF would not be used to increase the number of inde- pendent decision-making entities controlling the use of LIMITED DISTRIBUTION il' DECLASSIFIED i aysL mm 03 53 9 49% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION nuclear weapons We should also support and encourage appropriate efforts which may develop among participants in the MLF to register a commitment on non-acquisition in connection with adherence to the MLF With respect to Chinese Communist participation our position has been that participation by the Chinese Com- munists is a precondition to any such agreement Chinese Communist participation is of course important but if we continue to insist on Chinese participation as a precondition we will foreclose all Opportunities'for achieving such an agreement The Soviets are aware of this and it would not be in our interest to indicate that we are not really inter- ested in_such an agreement at the present time The U S should therefore refrain at the present time from raising the question of whether Communist China must be a party to a non-proliferation agreement If the USSR asks for our views on this matter we should state that Communist China in our view should be a participant in any LIMITED DISTRIBUTION r I - NARA 03 53 91 535% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION such agreement both because of the problem of India and because of the desirability of having the agreement world- wide in scope We should not indicate that we consider Soviet acceptance of this view a precondition to further discussions of the subject We should indicate that we are prepared to defer consideration of this problem until we have completed the discussion of other aSpects of the agreement - 6 Action to prevent proliferation of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles In order to reinforce our efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons we should consider an agreement or alternatively a tacit understanding banning transfer of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles or assistance in their manufacture It could include those categories of strategic delivery vehicles now included in the freeze proposal At the present time it would have to exclude the MLF and the Nassau agreement Any formal agreement would probably be rejected by the Soviets for the reason that LIMITED DISTRIBUTION WlAumamyWW l aySLisHA Datesrzill 343% LIMITED DISTRIBUTION the nuclear non-transfer declaration has been rejected -- at least until an MLF agreement became a reality However if our policy is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons into national control there is no reason this policy should not be extended to strategic missiles and aircraft which are primarily designed to deliver nuclear weapons To transfer these is to invite requests for the nuclear weapons which are normally associated with them and even after such a request is turned down to reduce the national effort required by a decision to develop a nuclear force 7 Negotiation of a comprehensive test ban treaty We should make renewed efforts to achieve a com prehensive test ban treaty for such a ban might well force political decisions in India Israel Sweden and other countries not to produce nuclear weapons The new Soviet leaders have stated their intention to seek such a ban although they have given no indication as yet that they would be prepared to permit any on-site inspection LIMITED DISTRIBUTION Hive 'Aumo w um it 33 52 NARA 03355731 LIMITED DISTRIBUTION -19 We should initiate a priority review of the present U S position with respect to on-site inspections unmanned seismic stations and other verification processes Research by DOD ABC and ACDA indicates that our requirements can probably be adjustedwithout jeopardy to our security as the result of improvements in intelligence collection techniques prospective developments in seismic detection and reappraisal of the impact on the military balance of possible undetected treaty violations I We should also consider whether we would be prepared to adhere to a comprehensive treaty without Communist China if the Soviets would be prepared to do so without France At a time when a Chinese test was anticipated but had not yet occurred our position was that a comprehensive ban would be in our interest without the Chinese ss_ e_s_a LIMITED DISTRIBUTION Datasrzm LIMITED DISTRIBUTION We should also consider whether our position can be simplified in other respects such as the procedure for inspections on the territory of non-nuclear powers Preliminary analysis indicates that considerable simplification may be possible without compromise of our basic security interests LIMITED DISTRIBUTION I or Me mem This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu