4 Es 'qa - - - 233 Manda-I913 Review - Em Bowman L t AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CHICOM ABILITY TO PRODUQE AND DELZVER NUCLEAR WEAPONS - DECLASSIFIED UNDER AUTHORITY OF THE INTERAGENCY SECURITY CLASSIFICATIOE APPEALS PANEL - E O 13526 SECTION ISCAP No QM document frepared by DIAST 24 Nbvember 1964 - I 7 - my a 3 $5113 i lM1 Kr - Til- 3 3' lm i 41 a - h 4 36 1 h '3J Ei'14 l3v 3 - - 1 'sse -uun 'e vki - n - i 33'sw - e- guf jrg hir I AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CHIGOM ABILITY TO PRODUCE AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS She source of the used in the first CHICOM test has not as yet been definitely established We cannot exclude the possibility that it came from the although he have no such evidence On bal- ance however we tend to believe that'it came fron the only isotOPe separation facility thus far identified in China the gaseous diffusiOn plant at Lanchouf_ The number of stages installed in the single cascade building at Lanchou is probably inadequate for the production oi ully enriched uranium in an ordinary'mode of operation honeverg'the CHICOMS - could hare employed a batch process which could produce-shout 20-106 kg of weapon grade U-235 per year While there is no evidence of the' enistence of other isptoPic separation facilities such as electromage netic gas scentrifuge or diffusion cascade buildings their operation in a totping mode used in conjunction with Lanchou is considered4pos sible and could result in an annual production'of as much as a fen hund- red kg of U-235_ter year The fact that the first CHICQM test was of an all U-235 design prob a ably indicates that sufficient plutonium for a test was not then available but we believe that a device utilizing plutonium could be availahle at any time There is'at Pauut ou a suspected plutonium reactor of perhaps 30 40 me which could produce 10-12 kg_of plutomium annually Since this is a rather small amount of plutonium for the broad nuclear weapons -- program that we belieue the pursuing we think other produc- tion reactors exist or are planned ELL ithcisi nhugu - l' - - rf i a 31- iillgi 5 4 ig s 'l 5- i I'-35 set I d- t Portions denied are and thus outside of the jurisdiction of the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panelasses Types of weapons Analysis of the Chinese Communists' nuclear test of 16 October 1964 indicates a rather crude device comparable to the earlier teets of the United States Con- tinued testing with U-235 would hermit a decrease in weight and diameter weaponiZed version of the first test device could be trounced very soon without further test This device would be heavy and expensive but would not reguire extensive testing for development and stockpile There is no information available concerning the capability of the Chinese Communists to design and produce thermonuclear weapons but we do not believe they could achieve such a capability until after l970 Availability of Nuclear weapons The table below shoWs ranges of Values which ate detived ftom two different estimatesioi eroduction capacities While the ranges are in tended to reptesent reasonable maximums and minimums it cannot be a tuled out that the actual availability lies_outside the ranges shown Compatible delivery vehicles are shown as a function of tineHr n gqlg'hl'f r ggf unrq twinsin l zl Laue n Calf Tn If zii 0 vi Portions denied are and thus outside of the jurisdiction of 'the Interagency Security Classi cation Appeals Panel as 2 _v 3 33 1 if $73 5 raj-s1 Lynn-pnn- iajf - -- 1 mp - - Estimated nuclear weapons availability 4 Total - Compatible it Eng U-235 3g Weapons Delivery Vehicle 1964 Bull modified Badger 1965 I 1966 Beagle 1967 MRBM possiblyl Delivery Systems_ The earliest weapons capability that could be achieved by the Chinese utilizing the present 0-235 test device would have to be based upon air delivery - we estimate that a ballistic missile system MRBM class with a maximum warhead weight of about 2000 pounds will probably not achieVe IOC before'l967-68 Aircraft delivery before l9l0 would be limited to the following aircraft'with the restrictions noted for internal carriage Orderuoanattle yaximum Bomb Maximum Bomb ng l I Diameter gighg Bull 13 I 5 feet - 20 000 lbs Badger- 2 0 4 0' A 20 000 Beagle 290 - 3 2 6 000 External or partially external carriage would be possible for larger diameter bombs with a corresponding reduction in mission performanCe The Fishbed 22 in l964 order-of-battle conceivably could carry a 30 bomb of about 2000 pounds to short rangesFle i wl 0 YEA 1 5 - of Eula 4 - g Ewing - 1 11' - 1 1 loh5g3 1 3L my k loggejil-fs w r g eg e h a i 0 I Conclusions The evidence obtained to date does not permit an unambiguous inter J - pretation of the scope and trends of the CHICOM nuclear weapons program I We believe however that the Chinese in collaboretion with the Soviets i embarked upon an extensnre e fort 1n the late 1950 s involveng both - I Pct 239 and 11 235 Undoubtedly the Soviet pullout in-about 1960 seriously delayed the construct-ion of fissionable materials production facilities but despite this we believe the Chinese have every inte ntion nd are in the jp'zmeess a of developing an extensive broadubased nuclear weapons program Hie mp fg Hg - i't w tat is - -- wo o- This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu