------------ Q-------------UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2018-02939 Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 IRELEASE IN FULL COhIFIDEt JTI A L PTQ2721 REVIEW AUTHORITY Paul Hilburn Senior Reviewer SEOUL 06877 01 OF 03 050431Z PAGE 01 ACTION C-OO INFO LOG-OO ANHR-OO TEDE-OO ADS-OO SS-OO ------------------898670 050431 Z 38 o 050430Z DEC 98 FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5488 AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY BONN AIT TAIPEI 5654 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK SECDEF WASHDC USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI J-5 FPA USCINCUNC SEOUL KOR UNCMAC COMUSKOREA SEOUL KOR J-5 COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA e e tcJ F I c Iq SAS-OO OOOW I I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 006877 TOKYO FOR SPECIAL ADVISOR PERRY AND COUNSELOR SHERMAN NSC FOR L1EBERTHAL 3ADER AND PRITCHARD GONFIDDHIAL PAGE 02 SEOUL 06877 01 OF 03 050431Z STATE ALSO FOR AMBASSADOR KARTMAN E O 12958 DECL 12 05 08 TAGS PREL MARR PINR KS JA KN CH RU SUBJECT EXPECTATION AND TREPIDATION THE ROK THAT DR PERRY IS VISITING CLASSIFIED BY RICHARD CHRISTENSON CHARGE REASONS 1 5 B D 1 SUMMARY THE KIM DAE JUNG ADMINISTRATION IS LOOKING FORWARD TO DR PERRY'S VISIT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A STRONG CASE FOR THE U S AND THE ROK TO CONTINUE PURSUING A CLOSELY COORDINATED DETERRENCE ENGAGEMENT POLICY TOWARD THE DPRK ROKG SENIOR LEADERS BELIEVE THAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE U S DPRKTHREATS INCLUDING NUCLEAR ONES ARE MANAGEABLE AND THAT THE AGREED FRAMEWORK -- DESPITE ITS IMPERFECTIONS -- REMAINS A KEY ELEMENT OF THREAT MANAGEMENT THEY ARE ALSO AWARE HOWEVER THAT THE U S THE ROK AND JAPAN REMAIN HOSTAGE UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2018-02939 Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2018-02939 Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 TO DPRK PROVOCATIONS INCLUDING NUCLEAR AND MISSILE DEVELOPMENT AND ARE CONCERNED THAT DPRK THREATS CAN REINFORCE ANTI-ENGAGEMENT SENTIMENT IN ALL THREE COUNTRIES JEOPARDIZING A COORDINATED DETERRENCE ENGAGEMENT POLICY END SUMMARY MEETING OF PRESIDENTIAL MINDS 2 PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG AND OTHER SENIOR ROKG LEADERS WERE VERY SATISFIED WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON'S EXPLICIT ENDORSEMENT OF KDJ'S TWO TRACK POLICY OF COI pl EJENTIAL PAGE 03 SEOUL 06877 01 OF 03 050431Z DETERRING DPRK THREATS TO PREVENT WAR AND ENGAGING THE NORTH TO SLOWLY INDUCE CHANGE OVER TIME THE TWO PRESIDENTS AGREED THAT IT IS VITAL TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE NATURE OF SUSPECT UNDERGROUND CONSTRUCTION IN THE DPRK AND TO CURB FURTHER DPRK MISSILE DEVELOPMENT TESTING DEPLOYMENT AND EXPORTS AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER BOTH EXTOLLED THE BENEFITS OF A SUSTAINED HARDHEADED ENGAGEMENT OF THE NORTH AND THE VALUE OF THE AGREED FRAMEWORK AS A VITAL ELEMENT OF THE DETERRENCE ENGAGEMENT CALCULUS COMING AFTER TWO VERY SUCCESSFUL SUMMITS BY KIM DAE JUNG IN TOKYO AND BEIJING THE ROK LEADERS BELIEVE THAT THE CLINTON VISIT DEMONSTRATED THAT THE TWO NATIONS' DPRK POLICIES ARE NOW AS CLOSELY COORDINATED AS THEY HAVE EVER BEEN THANKS IN PART TO A GENUINE PERSONAL RAPPORT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESIDENTS DR PERRY'S ROLE 3 -67 THE ROKG SENIOR LEADERS ARE ALSO QUITE PLEASED WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON'S EMPHATIC STATEMENT THAT DR PERRY'S POLICY REVIEW IS AIMED AT STRENGTHENING THE TWO NATIONS' SHARED POLICIES THAT BEING SAID SENIOR ROK LEADERS AND LEADING OPINION MAKERS ARE ALSO KEENLY AWARE OF THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN THE U S THAT RESULTED IN THE CREATION OF THE NORTH KOREA POLICY COORDINATOR POSITION THEY SEE DR PERRY'S VISIT AS AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE THE CASE FOR THE DETERRENCE ENGAGEMENT APPROACH BUT THEY ARE ALSO KNOW THAT THE IMPERFECTIONS OF THE APPROACH REQUIRES DEALING WITH DOMESTIC POLITICAL CRITICS CmJFlBEfqTIAC PAGE 04 SEOUL 06877 01 OF 03 050431Z PRINCIPLE AND PRAGM ATISM 4 C PoRESIDENT KIM'S NORTH KOREA POLICY IS PREDICATED ON BOTH PRINCIPLE AND PRAGMATISM THE PRINCIPLE ASPECTS HOLD THAT CONDITIONAL ENGAGEMENT IS THE MOST EFFICACIOUS STRATEGY TO BRING ABOUT A SOFT LANDING OF THE NORTH AVOIDING WAR AND MINIMIZING THE SUFFERING OF ALREADY DOWNTRODDEN COUNTRYMEN THE PRAGMATIC ELEMENT RESTS IN UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2018-02939 Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 czotpmm u_m0 Cm Uoumnami o m ma zo Zo Oomoomm Um m $02 5 OcmmijI x m00202 0 053005 59 20 XOmm 2m mm 4m2m52m 02 Um2_2mc_ m0 mm Om 0mm03 mem m 2 3 I m 52 an O wm 0032 _m _2 0m0EZm wmm2 _ mO_ _m OI 2 mm _ IOmm OI 20mm 1020 m2H r 005$ Enm momma $331 3 0mwmm U m n mmOCr ommwu om Om own omoLmLN 0-00 romroo 2Im-oo 0m-oo mm o m m-oo Boo 8055 A wm omokwwoN 0m0 mm ES mmOCr mI00 mama _2_nO 0m00 POZUOZ 03m _u m_m 0022 Zm Omx mmOUmT mI00 mmOCr Cogcwxomm mmOCr Xogtum Dogcmg 2 0 mmOjOZ ON 9 om mmOCr oommww m mom r 0 _m0m 20 00C2mmr0m mImm 2 mom Emwmmazkj w 0mm 20 EMJOIEMU lmiint Prl _u mm ON mmOCr 8me ON cm 825de mom w mm UOm m O 0mg A mummr 23mm Km 22 OI m mchmO 20 0m human rm $9 229 Cm 0% m m m Zo 000 20 Oomoommgw 0m czorpmm o Cm Umum23m2 o n mnm m Zo s-mo m-omomm Con 20 Oman 95888 Om 2 mom 2 3 L020 -- 0m0r00 Om I_m 20 Om w 2002 20 me r0920 I5 20 00 mm2 m 5 00020 20 mm2 0 M 020 20 42 rmm 0 I m Om I m m mm2 m Om wmm 200 2 Om m2mm _ 20 02 n I m umO 0 m 2mm0m0 HO 2 m0020 0 20 m wm w 40 2 umm O0_ 2 2 020 I m Om 2 20 Mm 2m OIwOmm_ $02 1m0 20 C0 20 20 20 5 54 2 2 OI mm 0 20 Im 0 Ummx m ZCOrm m mOm m u 0m ow mmOCr ommwu om Om om omo m N 02m I w rm mzm0 wm cmm0 Om w Cm 20 EOXO m Cm m 4 1m 0mm2 m0 ZCOrm m I m m EmOmmU m0mmEOcm umOWFmEm mmOE BOX m C m 2 Am00 m wm 0 mm OC u m szmm rm m0 20 $02 m 02m0 mmOwEmEm Om 20 20 mom 03 mm u Nm Am00 rm 0 Om Xm Om c20r mm u m0 Cm m m m Zo -No m-ommwm Doc 20 Oomoomm Oman o m mo UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No M-2018-02939 Doc No 006009247 Date 04 23 2019 FRAMEWORK PAGE 04 SEOUL 06877 02 OF 03 0504312 FAULT LINES AND FISSURES 10 Ga- FROM THE ROK PERSPECTIVE THE DEADLINE COULD GENERATE A FISSURE IN THE JOINT U S -ROK APPROACH AND HELP PRECIPITATE A HEIGHTENING OF TENSIONS THEY BELIEVE A DPRK NUCLEAR THREAT ARISING FROM THE SUSPECT CONSTRUCTION WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR SEVERAL YEARS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD THE ROK AIM WOULD BE TO HAVE CREATED A HIGH STAKE IN PEACE ON THE PART OF THE KIIVI JONG IL REGIME SO THAT THE NORTH MIGHT ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL FOR PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE EVEN IF THE NORTH DOES NOT ULTIMATELY ACCEPT PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE THERE WOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME TO DEAL DIPLOMATICALLY AND MILITARILY WITH THE THREAT BEFORE IT BECOMES LETHAL MANAGING KOREAN ELECTORATE VIEWS I It It END OF DOCUMENT gt gt CONFIDENTIAL PT02723 PAGE 01 SEOUL 06877 03 OF 03 0504312 ACTION C-00 INFO LOG-00 ADS-00 SS-00 0504312 l38 0 0504302 DEC 98 FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5490 AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY BONN AIT TAIPEI 5656 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK SECDEF WASHDC USCINCPAC HONOLULU USCINCUNC SEOUL COMUSKOREA SEOUL COIVIUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA WSECTION 03 OF 03 SEOUL 006877 TOKYO FOR SPECIAL ADVISOR PERRY AND COUNSELOR SHERMAN UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 391190 1173600900 OOCI 9390 91918 JO wewuedeg G33ESV 3H L GNV AOl'lOd 3HJ SNINIVJNIVW JDOSV SNOLLVAE3S3E SOOIE3S 30lO OJ CINV E03 LN3TI30X3 NV 3Cll OEd S3HONDV1 HOIHM SDOIE3S ANV GNV 3H L N338 3AVH H088 3H L SNOIJOV NI 3SVSN3 OJ 3H L WOE3 3HJ SNINIVJNIVW 3SN3TIVHO TVOIJJWOE OLLS3WOG SROIE3S 3EOW zmoso so 30 20 1 1990 so 39ch WOE3 3H L OJ aanma GNV 30V3d SNINIVJNIVW NI 3HVJ S S H LEON 3H L 3ONVHN3 EOJO3S 3S3HJ JVHJ 3H L A8 G30NV1V8 N338 3SNVHO SNIOOGNI NI SNIVS JNVJIWOONOO M33 HJEON 3H L 81133N38 3O M013 NV SVH JN3W3SVSN3 3H L WSIOLLIEO LN3W3SVSN3 SJJ 8830088 JS3GOW O L SHOE 3H L E03 SISV8 3WOS 3AVH SNOP WIH SNOA NVWEIVHO AEVEONOH SEHOES 3HJ N33M L38 SNIJ 33W 3H L GNV L03f 0Ed SEHOES N338 3AVH 3E3HJ SNOISSQOSICI N0 QEVMEO3 3AOW OJ 3H L OJ 3H0 3H L E32I'lilE33 330 3HOE8 SHOE 3H L E3 L3V 30 SISV8 3H L N0 3CIVW 38 LOVJNOO LVH L AOl lOd SJJ OJ SVH SHOE 3H L 99- '21 iEOddf lS mamas AOl'lOd su mo SNIAEEVO s m 3H L HOIHM A8 aawnamsm am CINV onwowooa 3H L A8 GaivaaNas ESEEIAV-SISIEO 3H L 333C MlavssaoaN LON ma EICHM SAOPNE ADI-103 LNEWEISVSNE SJNIH ousawoa 3H L NO -393 LL SNLLISIA SI J VH L HOE 3H L GNV FIE Vf '13Ed 5SSV L QOISOIZL 31030 38963 '03 NVJALLEVH E03 ZLSVOQO 80 3O 80 1990 10038 30 CIEVHOJJECI CINV E03 OSN 1172600900 9990 C13I3ISSV10ND A 2i UNCLASSIFIED US Department Of State Case NO Doc No C06009247 Date 04 23 2019 COMMENT C THE STAKES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THE ROK ACCORDINGLY THE KOREAN GOVERNMENT HAS GONE TO GREAT TO PROVIDE ACCESS TO ITS HIGHEST LEADERS SEOUL FORUM PRESIDENT KIM KYUNG WON HAS ALSO UNDERTAKEN TO PROVIDE A VARIETY OF VIEWS FROM THE VERY ELITE OF THE NORTH KOREAN EXPERTS CHRISTENSON It lt END OF DOCUMENT gt gt UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 00600924 Date 04 23 2019 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu