l3F -B 6l ASS IST ANT SEC RET ARY OF O F-EN SE 2400 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON OC 2030 1·24 00 - ···r INFO MEM O ' ' ·· ' l _f · '1 J j f INTE RNA TION AL SEC URIT Y AFFA IRS FOR SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FROM Assistant Secretary of Defense for Internatio nal Security Atr a n ty Mr Peter W Rodman l b 6 20 J v N 2004 SUBJECT THE ECONOMIST REPORT CAR D ON COLOMBIA I ' You have asked about benchmarks to measure prog ress in Colombia One benchmark might be the increasingly favorable tone of the media in reporting on improved security • This leader from last week's Economist magazin e might interest you • It's a report card on President Uribe at mid-term with statistics on terrorist activity decline in overall violence and recent kills captures of terrorist leaders The article attributes Uribe's success to two facto rs 1 The security build-up which in large degree than ks to US support has allowed the military to take the offensive 2 The government's effort to recapture territory and establish a presence throughout the country '' That's a backhanded tribu te to your concept of Effective Sovereignty' vs ungoverned spaces To which I would add that a key element of our succ ess has been Uribe himself Attachment As Stated G c-J 1- 4 oso 00 90 8-0 4 1 Bo 'JIIDIDistc om http l www ccollODlist comlworld la PrinterFrtenc lly din' Sto ry_W IH ill 11 IR Y' Eco noft t t tom LATIN AMERICA COiombia's secu rity policy You do the maths -- · · - c i 1 c - 1 · f· -o · - · - i· - r - rw·· · ' 't t· t' Des pite Its shor tmm ing- Pru iden t Urib e'• security push has ach reaults ieved aom e proml IJng Got l tlc ll backito•nd AFTER mon ths of effor t by Colombla n agen was finally arrested In Ecuador on January ts aided by the United States Ricardo Palmera above Is the mos t seni or reader of the FARC Colo2nd Mr Palmera whose nom de guerre Is S1m6n Trinidad mbia's main rebel group to be capt ured war with the gove rnme nt In Bogota durin g Its long His capture ts a sym bolic victo ry for President Alvaro Urib e and part ly becaUM of America's help ther e have been man y othe r if less dram atic gains If ending Colombia's violence were simp ly a question of numbers then 2003 offer for hope Jorge Alberto Uribe the defe nce mini ster since November no relat ion ed many reasons of the pres iden t has his own tally Last year over 16 0 00 suspected mem bers of the coun try's two leftis t guer rilla groups and of its right -win g para milit ary vigil ante s eithe r surrendered or were kille d or capt ured That amo unts to more than half of the thre e Irreg ular armi es' estim ated total stren gths Keep this up and they will soon be wiped out It's math ema tics says Mr Urib e If only Colombia wtll rema in a ltole nt coun try for years to conw die drug trad e wlll see to that Vet the president's •dem ocra tic security ' polic y has Inde ed notchelt-up some-lnijbwtwe- _ Colombia's overall murder rate f'ell to arou nd 50 per 100 000 people Jn 200 3-st lll high by Inter natio nal standards but the lowe st figur Democracla FSD a Bogo consultancy e since 1986 according to Fundadon Segurtdad y For the first time In rece nt years the num ber or new Inter nal refugees caused by the viole nce f'ell subs tanti ally to 156 188 Acco rding to new gove rnme nt figures ther e were a mere 2 04 3 kidn appi ngs In 2003 dow n from 2 98 6 In 2002 1 on 1 14 2004 10 06 AM Ec JJIODlist com r btq WWW econoausu om wm1111ta1rnnu 1r I 1ClKA1J wu 1 iu11 _iv Mean whlle the sewrl ty forces have been busy they fough t more than 2 300 battle s with the Irregu lar armie s up from 1 338 in 2002 losJng 523 dead whlle kllllng 2 980 according to FSD figures And a mc1Ssive campaign of aerial spray ing has cut the cultiva tion of drug crops on which the rebels rely for Income Behin d the ngure s lies a big sea ir ity butld-up suppo rmd by ArnertCan aid totalllng aroun d $2 5 bUllon since 2000 Presid ent Urlbe' s strate gy has two main eleme nts First the anned forces have taken the offens ive In the second half of 2003 the army and air force did much dama ge to FARC units In north- weste rn Colom bia aroun d Bogotci and Mede llin They killed or forced the surren der of half a dozen mid- e vel guerri lla comm ander s This has helped to blunt FAR C's effort s to moun t an urban bomb ing campa ign Secon d the gover nmen t ts attem pting ta recap D n terrim 1 and establ lsh·a presence throughout the country A plan to expand the police was compl eted last month with contingents placed In all 158 munlc lpallti es that lacked them when the presid ent took office In Augus t 2002 -no small matte r In a count ry more than twice the size of France In some places the police are being backed up by a new force of local part-t ime peas ant soldters The ome lette and the brok en eggs Ordin ary Colom bians feel safer and partly as a result the econo mv Is revtvl ng GDP grew by an estim ated J 2% last year the best postin g since 1997 Juan Yor1c -based consultancy points out that the capftaf ffight of Carlos Echeverry of LatlnSource a New recen t yeal'5 has now be•1-r versed and Inves tment and impor ts of capita l goods are both 1 growing Yet this progress Is not witho ut Haws and It Is tao early ta be sure that It is lrreve rstble The gover nmen t has yet to hit FARC where It would hurt Its tongstandlng bastio ns in the south and east In depar tment s such as Meta and caque Thismost Is where the guerri llas have their trainin g schools weapons factor ies and arms dump s and game r some suppo rt from the local popul ation - t ' •' r i r- • _ · _ L' · - f if · Mr Uribe the defen ce minist er points to recen t comb at In Putum ayo a FARC strong hold In the south A stt1lle • ii fwWs has broug ht gener als to the two l 9Jl posts who spend more time in t he fteld thao at their desks And CoDGP G IL st mootb apga pved a anti te rroris m law that gives the army Judicial power s of arrest and sean t • welf as phone-tafll III Mr Uribe Insists that the 1 power s will be tempo rary the law expire s In four years be used only again st terro rism and wlll i me wm be subje ct to congressional overs ight But huma n-righ ts group s say they will lead to an Increase In tortur e and forced disappearances Any such heavy hand ednes s will carry politic al as well as ethtca f risks The presid ent alread y faces crftlcl sm for a hasty effort to give an amne sty to right- wing 2of3 1 14 2004 10 06 AM ' · ·F 1 onomist QOID hnpJ www economist com wodd la Printcd'ncodf y ctm mto Y_lU paramllltar1es who have a murderous past and links to some army officers Perhaps the weakest part of the security strat area s In a downbeat recent report the Inter egy is Its approach to the civili an populatlon In guer rilla national Crisis Group a Brussels-based lamented the government's lack of a rurat hdog -development strat egy and concludes thatwatc last ing gain s agai nst the insurgents will be diffic ult 1r not impossible unless rurar comm uniti es see ctear and Imm edia te benefits In the government camp aign Foreign Relations in New York this week made A hefty commission organised by the Council on some simil ar points Mini ster Uribe adm its that ·the social touch ' Is Impo rtant But boosting local gove rnme nt schools and hospitals Is expensive And while the pres ident remains very popular he has stum bled recently A referendum In November on fiscal reforms promoted by him failed when too few Colo To reduce the resulttng ftscal gap the president mbians voted asked Congress to approve tax Increases but diffe rent ones lndu dlng a wealth tax It did so rr the president Is no longer omnipotent that Is no bad thing The main thrus t of his secu rity poll Is sound but It needs to be reftned·if ttie undo ubted progress towards mek ing Colombia a peaceful democracy Is to be consolldated Copyngr t Cl 2004 The i conomiSt N -p aper and TI 41 Economist Group All rf9hts reserv ed 3 oO l 1412004 10 06 AM This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu