CO 68 14 74 US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 i I IN FULL Draft DECLASSIFIED to 3 MKA ISI g 1999 $3 Dep Sec 39 HasSeen One on One a n - 20 September 1999 ggzzug i My meeting with Ivanov on Monday evening was mostly one on one and this format elicited a great many seemingly candid comments from him mainly on three topics Russian politics economic reform and corruption terrorism and the Caucasus We touched on Russian American relations and a few 3 other subjects as well Declassification Authority Geoffrey W Chapman Senior Reviewer 1 22 2020 Russian Rolitics and Elections Ivanov expects the parliamentary elections in December to produce a more moderate weaker Duma he predicts that neither Luzhkov's Otechestvo nor the Communists will do as well as they hope 'In part as a result the presidential race will come down to a contest between Primakov and Putin Yavlinsky Zyuganov Zhirinovsky have no chance Luzhkov probably won't Classified by Sestanovich Reason E O 12958 1 5 and UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 FIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 I 2 1 even run As between Primakov and Putin Ivanov says his old boss has no answers for Russia's structural problems he has grand ideas of a theoretical sort but is not strong in practice By contrast Putin is an effective administrator and this suits the needs of the moment As Ivanov sees it there will be no more revolutionary changes the changes that have already taken place have demolished all institutions and what is needed is someone who can do the detail-work of establishing new procedures for getting things done Putin is that kind of guy and will be able to count on the support of youth and of reformers He will also have it became clear Ivanov's support Putin has given his foreign minister a lot of autonomy which Ivanov appreciates he added that Putin is getting more immersed in arms control 'He said that he would like to find ways of bringing Putin into greater contact with senior Americans The Vice President's time to pursue this channel will be limited he believes Ivanov said he hoped we can make the most of the next opportunity for meetings with Putin at the Istanbul Summit in November As for Primakov Ivanov feels he cannot win without the support of the Communists and that this dependence is on UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 CO 68 1 4 74 1 IED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 0068147741 Date 02 26 2020 7 3 balance a liability for him it's a further reflection of the fact that product of the past Caucasus If elections go off as scheduled Ivanov sees Putin and Primakov as the real contenders but he does see a scenario in which Lebed could emerge one involving a state of emergency and a widespread recognition that the situation in the Caucasus had simply gotten out of control A Yeltsin resignation involving a transfer of power to Lebed is not likely but evidently not to be ruled out As for the crisis that Russia faces in Dagestan Ivanov believes that it is if only precaridusly under greater control The borders of the region whether Russia's with Chechnya Chechnyafs with Dagestan or Georgia's with Chechnya are porous and gaining control over them will be hard but doing so rather than waging all-out war with the Chechens will be Russia's priority and strategy The large number of Chechens Azeris Armenians and others living across Russia often illegally further complicate the matter Over the longer run Ivanov argued Russia faces an interconnected Islamist terrorist alliance -- with bases in UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No Fl-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 IED 08 Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 DeeNo 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 4 Bosnia Chechnya and the rest of the Caucasus Afghanistan and elsewhere Stalin's policies while brutal recognized that the Chechens were always trying to undermine Russia and to acquire their own strong position on the Black Sea As for Russia's dealings with other Caucasus governments Ivanov did not conceal his dislike of ShevardnadZe whom he accuses of playing politics with terrorism and ethnic issues Shevardnadze he says has made up assassination plots against him and rejected a deal that could have been struck to return Georgian refugees to the Gali district in Abkhazia Ivanov claims that Shevardnadze's own foreign minister admitted to him that electoral considerations made the deal unattractive Beating up the Russians is a much better campaign gambit Aliyev also came in for Ivanov's criticism like Shevardnadze he was in the Politburo in the old days and the two of them had no trouble getting along at that time now all the two of them do is complain about each other this is an odd comment and may show Ivanovls lack of surefootedness in- Caucasus affairs In reality Shevardnadze and Aliyev were far from close in the past but have obviously made the decision to warm up their relations recently for one overriding reason doing so made urgent strategic sense UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06814741 Date 02 26 2020 US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 5 Economic Reform and Corruption Our discussion of economics gave Ivanov another chance to ping Shevardnadze he and Gorbachev had made a big deal of putting all ideas out for discussion during perestroika but they'd never figured out a serious program of economic reform By the time Yeltsin came in nothing positive had been done on the economy and it was necessary to do a great deal all at once This was the period when Russia put itself in the hands of foreign economic advisers Ivanov says he doesn't blame those advisers here he is much more tolerant than Primakov but he asks why these advisers are now so bitterly critical of 'Russia Here he asked about Larry Summers why is he so aggressive in charging Russia with mistakes He notes in passing that those whom Summers allegedly likes best Nemstov Kiriyenko definitely won't be in the next Duma their party won't clear As for the current controversy over corruption Ivanov's attitude is the world weary one didn't everyone know that such things were going on And since everyone did how could the New York Times campaign against Russia be explained I explained that the timing was dictated by the course of our law-enforcement investigation which moved on its own track UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-t3804 Doc No C06814741 Date 02 26 2020 306814741 US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 6 Like those bombers flying toward Alaska that I didn't know anything about Ivanov observed ruefully Adding a personal note Ivanov said that he makes $300 a month and so has no need to take bribes It's the guys who only make $100 who are vulnerable he says Again a rueful notes we should have seen this corruption problem coming what with millionaires popping up all over But he noted the days of free spending and suitcases full-of cash are already in the past Now there are more limits on how people deal with their new wealth the fanciest restaurants are Asuffering Ivanov clearly recognizes the changes that the corruption issue will bring He obServed that Chernomyrdin is or will soon be in the U S against Ivanov's advice to postpone his trip Naturally Viktor Stepanovich wants to see the Vice President but why asks Ivanov would the V0 want to have a his pictUre taken with Chernomyrdin now Russia American-Relations We briefly touched on arms control Ivanov said the Duma was unpredictable and he doubted that START 2 could be ratified in this session All the same he was charged with UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 306814741 Date 02 26 2020 IED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 trying and they would try again in the next Duma if they fail now In the meantime Ivanov clearly wants to make more of an effort to affect U S elite opinion He has arranged to speak at the Council on Foreign Relations and at my suggestion was also doing the Times editorial board He asked whether there wasn't some way he coUld meet with members of Congress too He said his message to the Council would be that the U S had three needs from Russia stability inside_Russia continued reform and a consistentJforeign policy I agree and said so I also set out our thinking reiterating our arguments as to why the limited national missile defense we have in mind wen't really threaten Russia particularly given the President's commitment to pursue it cooperatively I further observed that it was a big loss for us that Yeltsin is no longer capable of meeting the President_for the kind of sustained discussion of big problems that they used to have as they did for example at Helsinki Other Issues Among issues before us at this UNGA Ivanov agreed to work on a Taliban resolution On'the Middle East ministerial i meeting that we've been pursuing he predicted that the Lebanese and Syrian foreign ministers would decline our invitation Ivanov also related an exchange he'd recently UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 006814741 Date 02 26 2020 1 CO 68 14 7 4 US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No 306814741 Date 02 26 2020 r-u-m'r v' 8 had with ssad who apparently asked him out of the blue whether he was Jewish Er why do you ask said Ivanov to which Assad replied that he wanted to know since Primakov was he'd been surprised to learn Jewish Sorry said Ivanov I'm not Finally it seems that lvanov's deputy was just in Belgrade and found Milosevic extremely confident There's no way says Ivanov to get him out and adds that General Perisic agrees 1 - UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No F-2017-13804 Doc No C06814741 Date 02 26 2020 This document is from the holdings of The National Security Archive Suite 701 Gelman Library The George Washington University 2130 H Street NW Washington D C 20037 Phone 202 994-7000 Fax 202 994-7005 nsarchiv@gwu edu Read related article Putin Clinton and Presidential Transitions 2020-11-02