THE WHITE HOUSE WASH I NGTON April 18 2000 MEMORANDUM FOR JOHN PODESTA CHARLES BURSON CC GEORGE FR AMPTON LEON FUERTH JIM STEINBERG FROM RE ROGER BALLENTINI COP6 Policy Status and Outlook As we come upon the conclusion of Earth Day we will begin to focus intently on the Sixth Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention onUlimate Change “COP6 ” November 13-24 in The Hague Netherlands This Memorandum outlines the issues currently on the table and our plans for preparation I Background The President and especially the Vice President were responsible for the success at COPS in 1997 that produced the Kyoto Protocol The last two meetings ofthe C JP have incrementally addressed open issues with the Protocol COP6 on the other hand has been targeted by much ofthe international ct mmunity as well as by domestic NGOs as the meeting at which a ratifiable Protocol must be finalized The Europeans and others have i allied around this notion calling for ratification of the Protocol by 2002 While we have not voiced such expectations we too have stated that COP is a crucial meeting Most ofthe world community considers the U S the main obstacle to completion of the Protocol The U S NGO community shares much ofthis sentiment Thus it is very likely that the U S would be blamed for a “failure” at COP6 II Our Goals Our first preparatory task is to come to some consensus as to what constitutes “failure” and “success” at COP6 Failure would most likely mean that at the meeting’s end much ofthe world community considers the multi-lateral process over - at least one including the U S This suggests that we might define “success” as an ending to COP6 with a consensus that 1 the Protocol is alive and moving toward completion and 2 there remains a chance for U S ratification in the near term III The Challenge Success defined in this way requires a balance between the “rightward” pull ofthe current U S Senate and much ofthe U S business community and the “leftward” pull ofthe international community as well as U S NGO’s Conceptually this is a balance between issues ofthe costs ofthe Protocol and its 'environmental integrity More specifically such a balanced result will depend on the resolution of a number of key matters flexibility mechanisms such as emissions trading developing country participation the role of agricultural “sinks” and potential new cost-controlling mechanisms such as a “safety valve” For example much ofthe developed and the developing world as well as the U S environmental community resists our efforts to make unlimited use oftrading and to get the developing world to “meaningfully participate” in the climate change fight despite the fact for example that we would argue that cost-decreasing flexibility mechanisms add to the environmental integrity ofthe Protocol unfortunately many ofthose calling for “environmental integrity” are really calling for the U S to “pay” for our past emissions Many see both issues as signs that the U S is not willing to seriously address the problem at home On the other hand without securing liberal use of flexibility mechanisms and achieving some progress in developing country greenhouse gas abatement the Protocol would be pronounced dead on arrival by a significant faction in the Congress and would receive harsh reviews from a wide array of business sectors Therefore the negotiations of all ofthese issues will be roughly defined by these polai'ized positions IV Preparations We do not of course need to achieve a perfect consensus balance on each remaining issue to be negotiated Instead the political and policy balance we need to achieve is one measured across all ofthe elements to be worked out at COP6 Working with the State Department and our interagency team we are addressing each ofthese issues We are consulting with stakeholders the Congress academics and others to evaluate our negotiating flexibility as to each issue and exploring how we could negotiate a package ofissues that achieves the overall balance we need Thus either here or at the State Department we are holding meetings on sinks rules for the mechanisms compliance developing country participation and so forth I can provide details as to the status and outlook for each ofthese issues at any time One important point deserves significant emphasis to maximize our leverage in multilateral negotiations we need to demonstrate serious domestic actions Showing a serious intent to take action to reduce emissions in the U S will lessen environmentalist criticism of our positions and will give us greater credibility with other nations in our negotiations