Olrttlor o lnl•llla•nt• 1 'f • · - Otfll J · · 'f •p · F' _D '- ·- if %Je4 •• •i F ' · 7 - - · - · - · ·· '7 · • Y · G r · r i '••' 5 ' I D ' b 1Y· ' I b 3 · · ' ' ' ' i ' - I Iraq's Nuclear Interests Programs and Options lntera1t11CJ lntelllpnce Mtmorandmn · ·· i • ' ' _ ' pproved for Release 2013 07 0 · __ _ _ f ' '· · · · _ ' '' - · · N t · · ' 4· ' · · · i f I ' ' i _r ·· • • '· ' J -'i t l- t° 14' '' i - • _ r • · · · '' · J · · '' ·' ·r' ' ·' - 1 · · r •• t t 1 J ''· • cl'' • •t · I ·· - 1 1 ' ru I 1 Car I' 000 · • Warning Notice ntelligence Sovrces and Methods NOFORN NOCONTRACT- WNINTEL H_ IRAQ'S NUCLEAR INTERESTS PROGRAMS AND OPTIONS I nformatlnn availat lt• •• nf I 0 1nl -r ID i'll was uwd In thr 11rrparallon of this mrmorand1 m - -----__J__ FOREWORD Iraqi nuclear intentions cannot be gauged with a hiRh degree of confidence becauw the available evidence is fragmentary and in most casc -s ambiguous The judgments advanced in this memorandum are thus largeh· speculati 'e in nature Nonetheless thf' ' are gP 11erally consistent with the thrust and conclusions of thr broadt•r country asSf'ssment presented In NIE 36 2-l i9 Iraq's Role In the Middle East Tliis memorandum was prepared under the auspices of the National Intelligence Officer for Nuclear Proliferation by scientific and political anah·sts in the Naticnal Foreh n Asscs iment C enter of thr C entral Intelligence Agency and in the Defense lntelliitence Agency It was coordinated with NFIB representatives in the lnteragency Intelligence Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation C01102734 I • 1 CONTENTS FC HE 'OHD Sl' l l Rl A 'lill KEY Jl'D lf IS DISC l'SSIO I Tlw Polle ' St•ttlnic lrm1 · l udt•ar Proicrarn F11111rr lnt t'nli ·e and C omtraints Condusions ancl Implications A EX Thr Iraqi Alomk Enrrl ' Cnmmi lon l I 5 5 i II If m C01102734 I ' • ' I t I' • • ' I ' ' • ' ' • • t ' ' SUMMARY ANO KEY JUOGM£ NTS w lun•f' no hard rvl it nct' that Iraq has clt'clclrcl actually lo accaulr • nuclt ar wt apons We belit ve howt'Vt r that the Iraqis have al lt'nst clt clclt'd to put thf'mselvt-s in a position to do so hv develop ng a rc•lnllwlv sc•lf-suHlch•nt nuclear hase- that coulcl produCt' 5uch wt•apon I evenh1 1lh Stron11 grounds for this conclu5lon are provided hy Iraq's security concerns re ional ambitions as rtions of Intent to match lsrat•li nuclear capabilitir s and demonstrated Interest In technologies and materials that would be needed to develop an autonomous nuclear weapons potential At the same time the wide-ran1dn1e nature of Iraq's q1u• t for nuclear technolOjty ug1ee5ts that BaKhdacl may not yet have a fixed plan for achievinK the latter goal If Iraq undertakes to build nuclear weapons the greatest technical prohlrm it will face Is likely to be the acquisition of sufficient fissile · matt'rlal Four approache5 would seem to be open to It dlve slon of the hbthly enriched uranium HEU that the French are schedult'd to supply as fuel for the OSiRAK and ISIS research reactors development of indi1eenous means of procluclng fissile material diversion of plutonium product d in a nuclear power prQKram or acquiidllon of fls 'iile material from a forei3n sour e or these only diversion of the French HEU or acquisition of f l sile material abroad would offer any hope of succes before the mid-to-late 1980s - If as expected the French do provide HEl but no more than an Initial loaJing for t ach of the two re arch reactors Iraq might be able to divert this material and build an air-delivera ble nuclear weapon by as early as 1981 althou1eh the 1983-84 period would be more likely If spare loadings were also furnished BaRhdad mli cht be able to build several sur h weapons in the same time Frame Diversion of the HEU could not however be accomplish without terminatlni c or conspicuously Ylolating International safeguards - Alternatively the Iraqis could load natural uranium plates in core positions In the research reactors and recover the plu tonium that was produced Out this extremely difficult technical operation could not be accomplished 5urreptltlou5ly and it would take at least two years of around-the-clock operation to acquire enough plutonium for a sln1ele nuclear weapon - It Is very unlikely that Iraq could build a production reactor r centrifuge enrichment facility-or beKln divertin51 the plutonium 1 rmlm·t·d h 0 tlu• first of its 11l11nn •cl powN rc•nl'lors-IN•fnrc• tlll' luh• tmms - lrnq d11H1C't'S of nhtalnilUt fissilt• mult•riul f llllll ll fort•hm Sllltr ' ' urc• pnnr hc•fnrc• tlll' mid- rnsos und nnh· slhd1th· IN'llt'r O 'N till' lonun run lriu1l dc•dslons with rr•s1M•t•t to how for how fost 111ul h 1 whut roult• to 1 11rsuc• tlw 1111d1•nr wc•npous optlol1 will d1•1 e•ncl In pnrt on donwstk nml lnlPrnatlonal cirl'umstanct s that urc• liuhjc' ·I to cl1 inut' In 1111 ' case l 1uclul1ul's c•stlm111t•s of the• costs rides 11nd rt•turns ur 'lll'inus '1111rs1•s of udlnn will l1t• h 1sc•d on Its own p11rticular J «'rCt'l lions Uncl r most fort•sc•c•uhlc• conditions how ' 't'f lrnq's lntc n·st In clc•vc•lnpln u capahllit · to pr0 l11ct• nuclear w 'aponli will contlnu ' to IX' iot1staln 'd h · · security concNm r 'Rional ambitlonli and reccmnltlon that Its oil wc•i1hh uncl litrah•Rlc location Rive It consiclernl lt lrvt'ragc• owr Its principnl i111clt•nr su11plh•rs At tlw same tlmt thr lrnqls will he• constralnt•d hy - Apprc• ·latlon that llfl ' nhroRutlcin hlntunt drcumwntlnn 11r cnnflrmecl violation of tht ir obliRalionli 1md r tlw N1111-ProlifN 11tlon Treaty NPT could result In the• t't'ssnllnn or sc•vt'fc• curtailment of vital forehm alililstance for their nuclear 11rcmram - Tlw r 'lnt 'd prospect that In the neur-to-miclcllr trrm ut lt•11st no sc•t·onc ary lillflpli •r would flt' willinR or nhlt• to stc•1 In nncl fill thr Rap - TllC' po islbility or pr 'f'mpllvt action h · lsr1wl -The• risk to other Important nnllonnl lnlrrf'Stli for t xumplc tlw chant• • thnt thr rraclionli or nrillhhorlnll stnlt•s could 'fr 'cllvt·h· frustrate llaRhclacl's lonJ er run r lonnl nmhllinns Whllr thr lrnqlli oh ·lously bdiev ' thnt thr lt vrl of politicnl 1111 milltnry risk nssoclntrcl with tllt'ir currrnt pnllrrn of ndlvlty In tllC' nuclrnr flrld b lll'Ct'1 tnhlt thry havt' rxhihitf'cl a tm•ntf'r tlt•Jtrt• • or 1 raRmnlllom and rlcxlhillh· In tht lr fort IRn policy IM'havlor ovrr tlw pnst sevrral years that SUllRcsts that they arc not In any particular hurry to achieve their more nmbitiom objectives They nre thus likt'ly to favor 11 covert nncl rrlntively meusurt cl nuclear Wf'npons rt•Sf•nrch nncl clrvrlopmrnl f'Hort which 1r nltimntt ly cnllrcl upon to do so conlcl rrnliOnnhly h - rxpecte l to produce several dt•livernhlc wnrh '11 s hf'forc It was uncovered This would rule out cons1Jic11011li shortcuts rntnilinR clivcrslon or French HEU or mlsme of the safrRtmrdcd · rt•actors as nnythinS morr than mrnliUr 's of Inst rt sort llnrrinR somr unforrsrrn chnnJ r in thr Mirlcllt• Enst milltnr ' or pollllc1I t•nvlronmf'nt thnt hro11Rht ahout n mnrkf'cl shift in lln hdad's current po lclt•s priorities ancl l 'rcf'ptlnns of risk we llf•Jl •vc• tlmt it Is 2 11111ik1•h· thul Iraq will 11llt·m1 I lo lniilcl 1111rl1•ar Wt'UllllllS lwforc• tlw lute• IOSOs 1 In the· inlnim hnwt• 'N tlw lnuais t• 111 he• t'Xl «'dl'1l 111 pNsisl in trri11 In at· 111ift• nil lht• nt•t·1•ssarr skills fal'ililic•s -111ul fissile• nrntni il 1111tln 1 lu· 'O ·c•r of t lll'lr 1wat·e·ful 1111de•a r 1 r r 11n If · Baathcl ul foll11ws this t·nurSt• of udl1111 11- will 11rohi1hly he• Sll 't•t•s• f ul 111 clc•tnrl11 1l1l ' se•rious su1 1 lic•r rm•ssurt•s hot h 1 1•slt•rn 11ml So 'ic·I m·rr 1111' 11c•xt s1• 'Nal - ·1•ars Tlw cluul d1arndt•r of its mwl •nr 1 rn rarn is howe• 'rr lilwlr to l f'conl ' l1•ss und lc· s amhi 11011s as ii 11pprnad1t 's a c 1pahilih· to huild nuclt•lll' Wt'll nns Tilt' lsr u•lis morPm'N urt• lilwh· lo mis ' morr 111 1·nt ularms as s K n as thc y t·n·n makc• n 11lausiblt• rnw-hoth to mohiliw inl 'rnational pressurc• a ai11st Iraq and to justih in aclvanc an ' direct action th v ma dt•cicle to take _ But l' 't•n if thC' Iraqis mana c to dn no more than to avoid llrr 'nkin Israel or thr Wt'st for four or five 't•ars timC' mi ht work to tlll'ir 11dvant 1 t· Hy tlwn ·the ' '· ma ' no lon1tN fi ' SO clr1wncl 'nl Oil forc·i 11 nudt••ar assistant· ' aml tht lsnU'lis mhtht find pn•t•mptlvt' intc-n·t•ntion politically and militarih· mon• cliffk11h Ahhmud1 wt cannot fort cast with an ' tll' rc·e• of cn11fidt•11ct• just how thr Iraqis would l1t•havr if thf' ' actually acquirrd ruu lt• ar W ' lllOlls clnrin thr cnmi'n drc acl ' wr do11ht that tlwrc• woulcl h • muinr changt•s 111 tl1 •ii' nvc•rnll forf'hm pnliq· ohj •ctlv ' i Rn hd1ul is vlrl11nlh· ct•rtnln lo n•main sln•n 'h' anti·lsral•li It is also likrl to hr it odds with n 1111ml1t•r of Arab ovcrnmt•nts a11tl lf1 f·xpNi nce r currcnt periods of ltmsion i11 ils rc·laliom with Iran Even if Iraq acquired nucl 'ar w 'apons within 1 IH' flf'Xl f t'W 'f'ars posSf Ssion or such orclnanct• would not h£'1p to I so ah• E - ·11tian Prc·sident Sadat i' hrln fi 'thists to pn vf'r cl iC'whcn• In the Arnh world Nor would it C'nd forehm exploitation of tribal or st-ctarian 1mrrst that l i cncl 'mlc to lraca On th ' oth 'r hnncl th ' Arah-lsrtlC'li dis1111t ' would prohahly lw sl nlflcuntly aff c•ch•cl J olic ·mukrrs on hoth sidrs of that ff'll I would luavt• to rl'lhlnk thc•lr milltur · plan and stratci t ' However Iraq's acc111lsltlon or nuclf'ar weapons would not necessarily establish a stahk• balance of terror in the l ·ficlcll ' East whC'rf' lnciclt nts that could trii tgrr hostilities arr common and ft• ' lradcrs havf' much 11nclc1standinR of thf' co 1sc' Jll 'ncr•s of usinR nuclrar wra1ions Tiu• implicaliom for US pnllclt s ancl intcm• i of the judgments ndvnnccd thus for mul •rscnrr thr wt almrssc•s of lhe cxl illng intf'rna· tional nonprolifrration rri tlmc In vlrw of the levNiuw that lrnq cun hrinR to hc•ar on il i principal nuclf'nr supplins tlw chnncrs of Immel 11ncl linwh· cooprrntlon In clt•n •lng Hn hcl1ul furthrr wt•n1Kms-111 111icnhlt• • AhlHntt1h a• 1 rr•irn h ln li -at I unlikrh· annthrr fi · ln1 n 11t tltat rnhthl prnmr•t l 0Rh1la1I to llf'C'f' rr 1ff it ntH·lrar Vtf ation timrtahll' woul l t ro ·rrt a1 f111i iliun of a '911 tantial •1uantif · of f11rrittu·r•rc11lttt· I fi 'ilr malrrial roved for Release 2013 07 03 nmt rluls tt•d111nlnR ' nncl t' 11thlmc•nt rnnRt' lrum cM1r to folr d1•1 t•ndh1R nn tlu• nutl'rt' of thr itl'm or lmowl1• l1t1• •oncnnc•tl Tlw n1 plicutlon h · the Unltt•d StntC's of h 'a ' ' pr -ssur ' to St'l'tm• Stll· 1 l'OOIM'rntlon wllt'tlll'r or not it w11 ohli NI h · l11w to do so wnul t p ohahlv crt•ate conslclc•rahlc• f rktion in its rt'latlons with a numlx·r t Its prlnclnul 1mrtrwrs In tlw North Atlnntlc Trrnt • Onuml1 11tlon NATO uml thr OrR1rnlzatlon for Et·onomlc Con ratlon and D1•vt•lopmt•nt OECD -partlculllrlr with Franc ' anti ltah' Siner vlKf rous l ' hnology clt 11inl efforts could he qultr costly hut still ln ad ' unh• to k ' 'P Iraq from acquirinR nuclrar wt npons hy th1• hate IOHOs If it wishes to do so there will he a clrnr nerd for parallel 'lforts ulmt•d at lncllrrctlv lnflut ncir1K the securlh· conc 'rns nsitionnl l nals and forc·l n polk ' nhJt•ctlvrs that promi i ' to ht• tlw 1uimnn· d1•tnmlnnnts of hoth I the clrgre ' of urgrncy that tlw lrncais nttach to tll 'lr nuclear wt•apons nmhitlons nml 2 thrlr behavior If and whrn thr ' cross the w1•apons thr 'sholo Pro1m•ss toward a hroadh· accrph·cl 'ace 5t ltlr mt·nt In the Middlr East will he particularly Important In this 'Onnrctlon IX'CIHl it' If thl' Iraqis acquln• n nude nr wt_•npons capability IX'fore stich a settlement is achievecl hr cl 'stnhili7 in rf focts of their accomplishment will he r 'nth·-aml perhaps clisastrously-maJ nlfiNI roved for Release 2013 07 0 DISCUSSION Th• Polley Setting I lr1111'J nudrpr Pmhltlm·' 1ur uulitrnwlh of Ill dt'tl'fmh1Pll1111 to 1•slahlhh and C t'nrr lhrlf ns 11 m11Jc1r for ·1· 111 lh A111h worlcl lra11i lrP1lns hP 'r usr I a 1l1 •111lt• of 11111irr1·1•1l1•11lrcl lnlrrn11I lahilil ' rl 11111 oil wt lllth 111111 mort• ft t·rnlh· fnrlultrnl' rricl111111l clr 0 rl· o lmc•nO In mow t lwir cm mt r · f rum ll posit 1011 of 11ollllcal l1olat11111 lo one• of s11l1 1ant1al lnflurncr lotlay A1·hll' 'rmr11I of ll hroa1I nuclrar 'apahilih· 11 appar· ·nlh· rf't 1mlrcl hr llw Iraqi Cm·1•rnmt'nl H prt'rrqul· ltt• lo fulflllrnc•nl of lh 11lllm11lr ohlt' 'lh·t• r1 11lon11I ht'Ml'fl 011 ' U11rrl1111 clomc• llC' 11plw11vnl l 1111lulad · n1•w 1m1rnlnl'ftl'r In rt 1Cl1111al 11H11ln Is 1101 ltlcrlv In 1 lrunsllory Thr nation's 1lrrn11th1 arr hro1ull 0 ba INI Oil rMrrvr1 will la I nl lf'r 51 thrm11d1 this crnhlf ' and will Pn'lirr Hn1tl11hd t'l'onomlc imlt prndPn 'f' for tlw fort'5f'l•ahlr f uhlfl' Oil rrvf'nuM havr In fuel Jumprd from ahout $ billion in 19i3 to ovPr $14 hllllon In 19i8 Much of that aclditiunal lncomf' has hc-rn u INI to mild Iraq's 1umt d to ·Cf'S lo lwlct' thf'lr 117 1• al thf' lime of lhf' 1973 Arah-ln11rll wor-an1I furlhrr rllpanslon an1I modrrnlzallon arr plannrd Olhrr asw11 rrlrvant lo Iraq's pursuit of a uralrr volcf' In rt «lonal ar d 1dol i1l afhlrs lncluclr a substantial population an amhi110111 literacy· prOKram a relatively hhih aarlcul hmal potential conslclerahlr lnflurnce with radical PalMtinlans and a stral lc locatior Morf 'llvf'r Rairh· dad has benefitrd from a serlrs of recf'nt df vf'lop mt nls that hnvr wrakrnf' l thf' po1llloM of rnml of Ill prlncl1 al rl'l lonal comPf'lllors Iran Samii Arabia SHiil F' iivpt and Turkl'y 3 p fillc l uadf'rthlp Thr rapid r rowth of Iraq's national powrr as l f'f'n In part attrilmtahlr lo tht' political 1kill detl'rmln tlon anti sharrd idMIORI· cal l t'flllf'Clive of the lradrrs who H mrmlw-rs of thf' ·Revolutionary C 1mmand Council RCC currrntly prMl lr ovf'r thr countn 's hlahlv Cf'nlrolilrd l a'thlst rritlmr They havr lirld powt'r for 11 yrars In a rminlrv wlwrr ln tahilitv lntrl11or 11nd vlolrnrr ho 'r dumu·trrbrd thr 11oltllC'ol M'f'nr throu1ho11t mMt of hf' 20th crntury This b ll1r lonaMI prrlod of contlnu· mt5 rulr slnCf' thf' lroql monarchv wa O 'rrthrown In IMH Evrn thm11h llir polrnllal for trrn1lilt• rrmaln t hi' t•11111inulh· nf ll'Hdt rshhl hus IM rn f' 'il·nllul to I he• fnrmulatlnn aml lmpll'mrnlallnn of lnal1 's amhlllous 11lu11s-hnth clomf'dlc an I for hm-for thr futurf' 4 Thr lcr ' 1l1•1'1slo11s In h a 1 lnrlu linll th1JM• rrlat • lt11 lo lllf' cmmln•'s 1111rl1•ar 1m11 rum arr 11111111' hv 1 111• man rrc•sltlt•nt S111l1lam I lmo 'n Tl11• lrunslllon of pt1w1•r In Juh· from ail I nil formrr Prrsiclrnl Rakr to SacMam llcl not an sm K lhh- Satlilam apparrnlh• ovrrrraclt•d lo s111111rstlons h · othrrs In the Ra 'thlst lt•aclnship that l1r hold lonit ovt'rtlur 1mrty c•lf' 'tions In lralllmlll' his surcf's lon lo lhf' prt•sltlt•nc ' I If' not onh· om1t l tl1111r l1r ht•llrvf'cl thrttnlf'nrcl his AllN'f'Sslon hut uM CI tht c•11IM1tit• as a prl'tr- 1 to rf'movt• othrn In thr 11ow1•r slruchirl' wh1111• lo ·nlty hr clo11h1t•1l S11cl1lnm appran In havr rmt•raf'cl f rc m I his aumnll'rs rvrntl firmly In ch11r111' Hr will probably he at lt'ast tt'mpo rarily 1listractrc-I howf'vrr hy lnlrrnal lf'l'llr llv mat· lrrs Hr Is asslstrd by a handful of close assoclalrll and haclcNI hy llOlh a powrrful 1 artv oriranl r otlon a d A prrvaslvf' lt'c11rlly apparatus Saddam's prlmuy do mrsllr aools llf'sidrs rrmulnlnit In powt r arr f'C'O nomlc M'lf-suHicl ncy and f'Stablishmrnl of 8a'th11t socialism Enlararml'nt of individual fr 'doms Is nnt rmphasl7 f' I His carrol-and-stkk approach io itovern· Ing has proved reasonably effective but en•n the prl'Sl'nt hlithly centralized rt'tl'l_me cannot mask the prrslstr nl strains that arl ll from reliitlous ethnic and ldrol0itical divisions wilt In Iraq's hr terogcneous soclf'tv 5 Ro'thlst df'cl lonmakln11 Is hhd1lv prrM nalir t'd nnd M'Crrllvf' Lllllr Is known of thf' acluol mrchanlt'I of thf' drclslonmaL lnit 1 •rocMs or lhf' role nf M' ' nd· le •rl atlvl lf'rs Sa ldam almost t't rlalnlv nr rds and lf'f'kA advlcf' from othf'rs hut thf' compo1ltlon of his · lnnrr cirri of eonflclants rrobelilv d1an1tM acco Jin11 In thr topic undrr consldrrallon Thr r nl political turmoil In l aahdad may ind11Cf' Saddam lo broadrn tllf' drdslnnmalcina procl's1 Mlmrwhat tho111th ht' Is unlilcrh· to crdr any slirnlflcant aul horlt y to his suhordlnalM R Fnrm1'111tlt n and lmpll'mrnlt1tlon of Nuclrar rollcu As Chairman of th Iraqi Atomic r nf'rgy Commlx lon IAEC Sadclam Is lhl' c y fl1t11rr whrn 11 l'ftmM to ca111•stlr 11' o nudrar policv IAEC Drputy C halrmun 'Alwl 11l-H111111t1 I lasl1hnl 1111 A1111•ri1· i11· t tluc·ah'tl M·h·11tlst 111111 a s ·11l11r Ila '1 l1isl 111 111 11l1'• t lu· ilu ··hNla · 11di 1th· uf tlw l u c 11 1 lm1••rla11t · 1111dt•1u offldal arr l u'lh l'arh 111e•ml11•r' 111111 111 1111 'm tn ha •1 dcl f• l'lllllll' 'lirn• with I ht• t•urih· 11111 foh•lli111•11t·e• ·rvk• · Al the• tn11 111•lili1· •I lt• ·e·I a ha111lfol 11f ll1• •oluth11 11n· 11111111a111I 111111dl 111e·111l11•r who al 1 hold lrn1••rl 111I mi11islc•ri 1I mil 1 1 'th l'arh· IMl'ib nrc• ' hahh· t·1111s11lh•cl on 1111t'le·ar 1111lin· Tlu• C• l1•mln itlt'l11el1• H c 'kt• l1 1irn11111 l nal ll1rnl1i111 11l-l 11ri lntnior Ml11i§l1•r Sa '111111 Shakir 111111 l t·fc•ns • Mit1i•lc•r A1lrn111 t l111 'rnll 1h T11lfah Tl11• 1•w1·11ti1111 in thl s1111111wr s 1111rl 1• o 1i111111 llm•n·n 0111• of Sacl tlam'' Lt• uh·lwrs 1111 e•1· 11111111k 11111 1111d1• 1r m 1lh•r l11111ld 11nl 11im111t 1111' 1m rt•s of lr 111 111wl1·ar 1m 'rnrn Fir I l P1111h· rrimc· linislt•r T iha ' 'asin Hama1ll1i111 1l·J 11 ruwi Is the• le• 111i1111 1 1111litlah• 111 tak1• Atln 111 I l11s 1 11 's 1 lilt'1·· In lr 111i cl1•1il11•rali111 s 1111 1111· t·l1• ir 11H11lrs Tilt t•ictt•nl 111111 m1hirc• of tlw milil ir 's rulc• with rPs111•t•I In 1111' 1•111111lr ' 1111d1·ar rm ram art• 1111d1• 1r li11l ol l1·a l 0111• Arnn· offk r b IM•li1• 'e' l In 111• asshu 1•1I a kt• ' lll'• ilion In 1111' IAEC as a rc•prt' if•nl ilh·t' of the• linislr ' of f pfn1sr Dnnlt'sli 1mhlk opinion has 11111 ra rnr 11 l'Clllt'l'fll lo lr1111's 1111d1• ir 11111i1· ·maL1•n llowt• ' 'r If tlu• 111'1'11 ur• ' 1111• lla1th· tl1111' r••llinll' w ulel 1m1l111ltlr lun·1• lilll•· lro11lil1· 1·1111· 'l11d1111 tlir 111•11nnl 11111111lal'I• th 11 lr1111 l ntl 1111• rhd1t mil e- ·1•11 a tlut · lo tlt• 'f'lop 1111d1•ar we•111 011 lo 1l f1·111f itwlf •111 1inst similarly Ntllillllt'tl a1h·rt riN_ i 1- rnnnmic lmpf'ratfrr1 and Con1trainti Sim 11lr 1111t tl11•r1• woulcl sc't'm lo IM• lilll1• 01 no e' 'onomk J11 lifil'nll1111 or the· s1·11l1 111111 clirt' 'lion of n udulacl 1111de 1r c•Hnrl For 1lnP d1ln11 1111' lri111i ha 'I' 111 ·1•11 · flr I 1irlnrih· le• facllilirs of a h'IM' that 1111likr 11nwrr rt•aclor will yit•lcl 'lrluallr nn lmme•clialt' rco omk rl'l11rn whrn the' ' arr complrll•cl For unnthf•r ' 'I'll if 1111' 1·1111ntrr's rt 'nnnmk um ·lh ac-n•ln 1lt• rn11hih· 11v1•r 11 Ionic 1x•riiKI 11 1tural 1tas N trillion cuhk ff'l'l 111 priw1•n rrsrr 't•s now ht•inR flarrtl in cnnnc-ction with n11clt• oil procl11cllon will pro 'iclf' an limplt' sourcl' of clnm1' ilil· rrwr1t · for th1• forl' ·rahlr fuh1 1· Thi' t'l'On· eun ' I mnrrovrr too 1111 01 l1i lk11h·cl lo IM •f'fil 11rr11th from tht' tPd1noln11lt- 1I s11ln111f nl 11 lurl t•· ll·alc• 11111·l1·11r 1ir111 r11111 N l'nlilkal ancl trc hnk11I lrn111 1imrnh rnthe·r thnn f' 'llllOmlt· C'nn lrnlnls MISC• the d1irf 11hs111drs In lm1llP· nwnlnllnn e 1f lri111' n11dc•11r 1111111 'llh SIO hilllon in 1• 'c111n11l11lc•cl 11 rh nncl nc•urh· drn1l1lr that fhrnrr In 1 rnf It IJU fP dt tallf fl 41i l'll iltft of thr OUl•nhation lllnf'tiOf urn I •lafl ••I II• IAH 11 anllf'' oil i111·1111w 1•ad1 't•ar 1111' ln111ls uw 11111 1111 11111111111111 · wiiah• 't•r h- ·h1111l1 r 111111 t1- ·li1111l111tlt•11I u sist 111 •1• tl11• ' rt'ltllirc• wlll11111t j1'11111111li1h111ntlu•r1•t•111111111i1· 11pH1111 ' s1 111111111f lrn11i 11iwl1•11r t•lf11rl hm 'e• •e•r l111s IH•e•n lm1•'Cle'll l1 · n•l11l'la111·e· 111 usshm f11rc•l1tn••rs l111• 'lli1111s· of re· 1••11sihilih' 9 Ha1d11lacl has 111111 m·nth 11ssi1t111•1I 1·1111siclt•rnlil1• · 11rinrih· to ll '1•rc•11111i111t tl11• 11rohle•ms 1·rc· 11Ptl h · its il1•11larit ' 1111rlic•11larh· with rc•stM'l'I In hoth humun aml 11at11ral rc· 11m·1•s -----------­ l a1d11l ul's lruh111111 c•Horh lm 't• so for 'it•lcle•1I 1111 i1111il e•111111s 1ir11l1•s i11m1I c·mlre• of l 'iO 111l'l111li1111 50 1'11 I 's 111111 r1·st•11rc·h 1m111ts ha ·1• h1•1•11 ll oe'll to lure• fnn·i11n 1•111•·rts into tlu• 1·111111lr ' on sl1orl·ll'ftn ns hm· nwnts • Tl11• lrae1is art• n•1111rlt'llh· 11l 11mi1111 to tlirc•c•I s-•nw uf tl11•ir sd1•11tish 111 11• 1 't' f 1r tilt' 'c•sl 11111lt•r 1111' 1m•lc•11St• of 1111liti1•11 11re•ssm1• uncl tu ic•c·k 1•m11lo 'llle•nl ul 11111·l1•1ar fut'llillt•s uncl rc•S1• 1rc·h 1'1•11tc·r Om•1• th1• ' lm ·1· 1rnhll'1I s11Hkl•·nl e·•1•·rlc·111·e' tlwsc• h1tlh·itl1111ls arc• lo ri•lurn to lro111 in adclilion In t•1111lori111 with 1111' Frc•nl'h tlll' possihilil ' of r' lllraC'tin1t uranium from lrn11 11hosphatc• nrr Hll th· d HI has IM'IUll1 to in 'f•st in uranium mi111•s in thr Ce•ntrul Afriran RP1111hlk Ill Forf'l•n Poliru 1 11 'thist for1•i1111 1•1llr ' Is In 11arl lnfhwr1l'e•1I 11 · 1111 hle 1le111y that t•11111h11sl1t· 1'1111· Arnhlsm In 111•11t rul und pro-Pnl slinlan anll·lsi'af'li sc•nlimrnts In particular 1 111 pr111tm111ic rnnsitlrrotlnns ha 'I' ln 'rt•asin11h· cnmr lo l11f111rn 'I' lrnr1i IM'ho 'ltir In thl' lnlt'rnnlionol orrn11 Tht chon111• has IM'f'n charoc· lt•rlzt'CI h · lnosr11lr111 tlr with Mr1S1•11w rt'sl mint Io wa rel Aroh nc•h1hl•1rs uml 1trnwln1t 'ommrrdal r••lo· lion with tl1r lnclnstrlal Vrsl TORrthn with hn tllr Arali rraclinns In tht• Camp Do 'icl lll'C'Cmls thrse elt• 'l'lo1m1rnls ha -1• rnahl1•cl lr •l 111 ovc•rl flml' rt'SC'lll· mc•nt s IM1rn of lb confrontalinnnl tactics In thr pnst ancl In t•stahlish rt•11sc11inhly cordl11l ond COOIM'i litl 't' I fltllf'f 8 Jlf 'I fll frllJ '• N1'1 h· rt'«innal anti inlf'f1181innal 8 fllra• lion ma ' hm•· vre e•nnllkt flna11c-ialh· ilh ih m1rlrar amhlltntl Thrrr rra nn In 1lnulo1 fur 'amr•lr lhal l a•h•l d ·Ill •tmnlla- 1•h· hr at I In lurHl 11 • '•• 111n•rnm ll1'111i•tltnn nl 11 lahll' na t prMf'lll'f' In It rrr•lan Gull r 111i1ITl'lr11t f lra 1t aml Snlall 1rn11ncl aml air' ·tlh WMlrrn arm• aml 11rn 'l•ton nl el lartn atcl In 1 elr•· l11 ll'fl Nnmtrt In lhr form of oil 11rll'r 11iwounl• Nonrtt I mml of tlor 1 lnanl'ial 'f'mtlirh lhal mtahl art w1111lcl pruloal•h· I• rMnl t In la 'nf nf ll•r mlf'lrar 111uaram 6 · roved for Release 2013 07 0 rt•h1tl1111 ·Uh II 1111111IM•r 111 1m• •lu11•h· or l1n•lil1• rt't'l1111ul hilt l111'11111i111 S1111 fl Art1hl11 S ri 1 Jnci J11rtlJ11 11 'hilt• lrn11 rah tll'hd1l111r lun• 1lt'lwrnlh t•lt·111111 I ll•111hel111I mnrt• e·aut it 111 am I tit• ilil1· ht·· l1 1 ·i11r llu• ' rhd1th· Ml llt't'I tl1 1t tli1• lr 111i rt•11i111111I u111hlli1111' rc•nmln i111 l111111 t' I 11 ml tru•I tllill Is rt•dt FtM'lllt'tl H111d11lncl 11111i11l11l11 II' 111· Ith ft•llt1 · Amii Ua'tlihh a111l 11tlll'r rali r 11lk11I a1111i11 I 1111• 1la · wh1·11 II 11111 ' l1t• In II' lnlt•re• I In 11r11111111t• tlu• e••t111ili l11111•11t or w1111111tl11·l11· r1 1tl1111•' h1 tht• Arahl1111 1·nl11 111 1 ' or haVf' 1111• lra11i' rt•h 'om111•llt'tl In rc•nn11111·p tlll'ir lo1111 11111tli111l lt'rrilnrinl dairn' on Kuwait l c•latinn' wilh tht• nc•w rt' 't1l11t11111 ir · rt•l knc• In lra11 art• lt•Ulif• 111 1m· ·11t anti l111th 1i1 1111 'I' l11•1iU11lih· 111·1·11 · l 1·111 11 ollll'r 11f 'uhvn l 't' IM•lul ·inr I N111wtht•l1 ''· tlll' Iraqi d1•arh· attach cn11sitl1•r· 11hl1• lm1w1rtuiu 1• to lht• furtlll'r impro 't'nwnt of llll'lr i nlnnalional lma111' A111l whil - thl' d1a111c•• in llwir fori·ilm 1 r1lky lwh l 'lor ha' IM' 'n 11rlmarih· lactit'al In nature• ii tlnl' 'lllZlll' I that Ha1ll1Cla1l •• not ft'f•I in an ' iue•11I l111rrv to ad1ie• ·e• ib l nal of rt'l innal he·- 1lPm11ny Mort Ove•r thi' u11p m•11t aliwncc• of a s •11w of llrlU'lll' ' wnulel nnl '1'111 ·to ht• nut nF d11ir111·11'r 1111cln l rl'vollimt l'lrc11m t111K'1• 1 fnr tlw rt•hitiw 'nuth 11f raft's l1·acl1•r l·nnlcl pc•nnll tht•m to ta •' a l11niz-tnm •li•w ancl tl111§ lo p11rs11f' ll'•lide• that lhr · lw·lit·w will h11 n•m1•11t111ly 1ul ·anc1• lra11i inh•r•'l t 111 minimum ris or luKtilr re•aelions I mm kt• ' rrlllnnal or ' lrarc•izinnal pnWl'f I 1 1 Src11 ltu C onct' · Tiii' Iraqis' pc•rct·1 tin11 of 1111' tl· n•ah lo t ll'ir national M' 'urih· aml r1 1 i11nal amhitlnn p11S1•el h · hral'I nn tht• onr 11 11111 a111I h · llll'lr tratlitlonal rl 'ill Iran nn llll' 11tl11•r 11r1· 11111l1111hl· 1•elh· the• 1niman· motirnlinll bc ·tnrs IM·hi111I l 11d11hul lnln t· I in cl1• 'C'lo11in 11 ca11ahilil ' tn liuilil n11cl1·ar we'lllll'•n hr1wl luul 110 111nhlll11m 1111d1•1u 11 11 r11m wlll'n lhf' Ou 'thl ts ri'l•1rt11•d In Pt• ·rr In Juh· 11 1fi'4 mil Tt·liran was nlri·ueh· 'h11wh1iz slizm of slmil11r lnlt•rt· lions Not1l'lhrlrs tlu• nrw rt'1Zim1· nr I In t'llfll' with 111•rslstc•nl dome'l tic· s1' ·urih· 1n11hl1•m and In ncw1irr tlw nf' 'f'S'lllrv rNinnmii whl'r1•witlial 1lrla ·f'fl mo11nt h11t a ·riot n11cl1••tr f'ffnrt lnr l' 't 11 'f'MS ' 'lr t•I '' '' ' tt on l' ••hf uh••h Trt- th O l 10l'1 · I Jul l ltl iu t lh 111• t forr lltr IW'lfti h uu•rlt1r ' ttM• ' rif F'-Vi1m• in l avf f ul It V f Ht trt1 '•0 -l1lr tu •' lfttt tluet c tf'ral · ril flfTt ' · '' fJlilil'fl lhr lr1•al in 11 fall 111 1111·•1 •li I ' vi • m11d1 lhrnurht •n tlw- l• 'iitlt- luut11·r n 1m11lu·ah11n11 f tlwir 1u·t 1 un J I Tl11• lr 111is 'tronl h S11 t11·d tl111t hriwl 11lr1•11tlr Im' 11 1111d1•11r w1•a111111s l' lllahilit 11 l 'llf't'I thut 1111• ' 11rt• lil1·h· 111 lh11I 1• '1•11 11111rt• trn11hli111l In 1111• w11l1• nr 1111 Et1 •·•l1111-l r 11·ll 1w·11L't' lrt•nh· that tilts tl11• 111ilit11n li 1l 1111· In 11it• Mhlell1• East furthn In fu 'nr nf brn -1 111 1111r 1• ·1•111 ns 1•urh· as 1 17 I llr1111 w11' pn•p11 rt•1 I In s-111-·1-u -111_11_1 - -11 -i millil111 of ilolhiu lo ul'hi1• 'I' n11dl'11r 1111ril ' with lsriwl 111 11 slmll11r '1'111 11 rn11kl111t 1111•mh1•r of 1111• ll1• ·11l111 iun1ir · 11111111111111 ' 1111111'11 1111l1lid ' 1l1't·l1m- I I' ' Mt111111i·r th11t If hrue•I 1111 I 1111 'lc•11r wr111w111 the• Aral mmt llOSM' S tlu•m loo J ''i l a 'thM lr1111 ' rrlutions with Iran huvl' m•vcr l1t't'll mnn• tllilll t'nolh· corrrcl 11111i t l11•v we•r•• llllrlli•u· l irh· hail In Hli·l ancl e•11rh· Um wl11•11 we• s1i 111' 'I thl' lr1111i' l11 1l111i thinkiniz 11hn11t il1• ·e•lo1 ln1t a 'llt 11hilil • 11 lmilel t111C'l1•1u w1•111w111s Tl11• two 'lllllllrlc Wl'rt• i111 thl' 'l'flll' of war In tlw lah• IO lO i and t•arh· l l70s Horell'r · dadtl' i Wl'rt' cnnlmnn and t• 1l·h §iclc• Mllllthl lo sulw -rt lhl' 11tlll'r--lrnn h · 11i1linll 111i1l 11lw•lli11R tl11• rdw•llin11§ K1mls in lr 111 uml lr1111 h · 'tim11l11tinll Arnh M'llltral lsm In Iran 1'1•11sinns e·11 'tl in llli5 fnllnwinll l'otl 'l11- 1on of a hililtnul a1trt•l'm1•11t 11111le•r which lralJ 'ic•lel1- l lo T1-lir11n's 1111 illons with rl'Sllf' 'I to cllspntc' I ' 1mmon ho11111lurlc• i 111 ri•tum for nn lranl1111 1•l1•tlllt' lo t'f'llW 111l 11ltl lo K1mlish tril M' nwn In lrn11 E 'C'n Ml 1111• lraql I 1111l1111hh'tlh· 'ic•wc'tl lrun 's h11r1t1'fmintz nucll'ar 111111 militan· 1111Mll'fni1 11lhin pr111Zrams with consiclrr ihll' 111 1m•h1•nsion And whill' thl' clrclinl' n lmnian mlli tan· 11owrr aml thl' llllt'll'ar slamlstlll that ' ' fol· lowf'fl II Shah downfall mml havl' all1•vi11trd M ml' of lrnci lmm1'tli11tr concrrm l a1thdarl 11rolmhh· still ''il'w I lrnn as a 'IRnl ic1111t lnn1t-lrrm thrl'al to It' lntn1 ts In th P1·rsiun ulf arr•a Iraq's Nuclear Program Iii Barlc1trm1nd iraql lnlrl' t In n11cl1•nr rnl'rR ' IM ICllll ' 1 1 ''5 with 1111• Mh1hlisl1m1•11t or II 'Clllllllillc't' 11111•1•r tl1I' Minl h·r of Dt• 0 Pl111mw11t In ioluth· oFll'fs nf 11i1 1kl1111u• From the• lJnllt'fl St11lf' ancl Grl'llt l ritaln E111d 1111l's 11rn111™1I lo rstahllsh a nudrar training crnll'f in B111tl11lad 11s part of Its N111lril1111inn In thl' s11p110rl of I 11' R111dulacl Paci was at'C'l'Pll'll In Januaro · IO ' fi Ii Tlw lrn11i Mn ml • Em•rR ' n 'lmisslon w11s 1•s ta1hli h1'fl In J1111111tr ' IO i l A11111111 11th1•r ri·s111111slhil lll1 ' rc•l 1tln1t 111 tl11• 1•jipl 11tatli111 nf 1111cl1•11r rm•rtz ' For Jlt'lli'l'ful p11r 111M's ii wus duan I with t'st11hlishin11 · crll'lJll'r ill '1' 11rrnn1trme·nh will otlwr co1111trlrs In A11Kml l l I thP IAEC ro1ll'h11l d 11 n11d1·11r c·oof'lt'ra- tlon llilft't'llh'lll ·Ith lht' l 'SSll unclr•r wl1kh Mo t't1 111Mlr•rh1nk to ron lfllrt u rr f'11rd1 rr•111 111r 111111 111• hoto lt' l11linr11h1n· In lr111t 111 11hl In l • lll't tin11 for ruclinarth· · orMi 11ml tu t aln lr1111l i••r•101111rl In rm· rlrur•rr l11troel •kill• 11111l 1ll d111lne l th II ln111 uml In dir Sc1 ·l1•t lJ i1l11n IJi l'rrllmlnllf ' 11 ' f ir thr• llt' r1arc•h Ct'nlt•r 111 Tmullhu 1111111111 l uicl11l111I 0•1 tit T11ul' l h·1•r lllllM'' I w1u liutroel In lllfiO whill' th lr1111i·So ·lt'f 1·1111 t ml·tion n111lr11rl wu 1 1n11 11t'11ntl111t cl Elahi r•an latt•r tlM• Si-vlc•ts com11l1•h'tl in•tallallon of an lllT-21100 Aw·l111mlmc l1ml n an·h rral'lnr whld1 lnl• llalh· ' flt 1·rlll1·al 11t l 't mr11uw11lh 1h 1mull 111111 11 11111111• I rr ·an·h 111111 trnlnlrui t'fforl w1u 1 111 Tl1r ·ic•ls ul 'flllf nth· t1P 1 rade tl thi' rral'lor uncl ih 'Ill ' ' oulpul was ln 'rraWtl lo 5 J 't In mH '9'i HI l urlna 1l1r Hnl fe•w 't'a of lhf' Tmrnilha C1•11h·r'i opnallon lrnc1l 11clMllM In thl' nurlf'ar fie•lcl 'e•re• llmile'fl to bn lc rrYarrh tralnh a lhP production of h11h•1N9' 1t 1111111 hm nl • r 11 rnf'flkul N '11n nl Saluan ll11 111t11I In llaahclud to u 1111 q l'otn ll' aml thf' forrnallon of a rohalt lrrael ition unil for diattnc K· lit· uncl lhrrafl' utlc purJIO'M 1 ·hlrnl'f' of morr amhi linm 1111d1 1r ohj •t th·M l f'llan to 1111rf11N' ahoul nth I· HJ'i·I illl't' thPn lra11 ha' at•lh•rh· SOll1Zhl to inrre•uw nucle•ar contacts 111111 CflOpc•rution with otl1rr t'lllllltrh-- In th1• prorM 'i'il' ha ·r IN'f'O 1• rhanR1 tl wllli 'e•'t Ge•rmun ' lntlia l' ilancl Frant'I' Can ula E1n·pt ltah· Japan 1h l'SSR an l Sw frn an I 11 •c•rt1m hu 'r l l'f'n madr to ·e•ral othrr rountril9' 20 Rrrrnl Trrnda and Drrrlnpmrnl1 Th m1 1 h r iflt·anl tl1·vl'lopmr11ts to f'meric so far from thl' lnmt of lnlr•rnutional aclh'ltv h11 'f' J n - The• a1m'f'mrnl 'onclmlf' I with Pari' In 19'ifi uncl1•r whkh ·1hr Frrnch will pril 'idr Iraq with 11 re•wurt•h rraetor rnm11le• l llllnnrcl uhl'f tlll'lr own 'il 1Wt OSllUS and iOO-k 't ISIS rractor 'ornpl1• at Saclay - Thr airrrrmrnts sl11m«' I wilh llah· In 1976 and 191 umlf'r whkh lhf' lraqic will ohtain a raclin i 1h11N· laoorntor · 11 ra1liochrmirnl lnl10rator ' a fuc•I fuhrkiillon fnc-'111 ' n matl'fli1I' t - t1111 fa rillh· and 11 '1111pnrtl 'f' ph 'kul 11l11nt lnrhullnc w11rrh1111 111111 wor chofl' All thrv- nrw facllitlM will hr ftltlC'alrcJ ·Ith thr Sovlrt upplird 5- IWt r• ran-h rrartnr at thr Tuwalthn f' rntf'r OriRlnal 11lan' cail1'fl for complr- Ion of lrar1's · 40- IWt rf'actor commnnh· dnhllf'll OSIHAt ancl lh - MO-k 't ISIS nnit-ooth 1IMiRm'«I 8 to IN' fuc-f1'll ·itl1 M- •e•rul il1l11flllll of Wf'lllllln'•U lllil1• hhthh· r11rh·l1nl 11r111iium llEl' -hy lutl' IOHO or ' tmll 11111 thl' Wl111tuii1· 111 Frum't' liut A11ril of §t•n•r'll OSIRAJ t•om1111r11•11h b llle•h• In St•t li1wl tl1b tinlf'laltle• Ii ' lltl ' l'lu•n• from thrrc· tn IH rn1111lh · If 11 elc•la ' of m11d1 mnrf' th1111 a 'l'ar b hl 'oh•nl Fnmt'I' ''''' h'f'lmlralh· llf' ' a lion tn 1111 tllntl' ru i of le•• low a 1 r of rnrlt·hmf'nl In hr u hlf' for nurlrur 'Ill ' '· 1- '1'11 Ml WC' lll'lll' 'r liiut tlar l-'rc•11d1 will ' PPh· II El I for 11 • lra t thr lnllh1I lnacllnc 21 TIM• fudlltiM IN•lna pro ·lde'CI hl· tlH• lt11llu11 arc• 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·h 1 ' as 1111 Nlfl'rtllr lr1h•nclf'll lo f thf' first In an nnnual wrlM of M•mln in 1mocialNI wllh lhP Hl'iH nudrar acrf'f'mf'nt l l'twf'f•n ltah· a cl Iraq 22 Iraq II 111111 llNJUirlna 11 llmltf'll c11pnl1lllh• In ·f'ral olhn nsillvf' arras For l'Xamolf' th ' IAEr currf'ntlv hH a Mmpntf'r hardware and IOrlwarr t•apahilih· aclf'Q1111te for lh - df' llcn of al lf'ast rf'lallvrh· 1111M111hl llr11tf'll nuc•lf'11r we•apons anti It Is plnnnlnc In 1111t1r i1lf' lh f'Qulrtmf'nt lr1111I rlrntbh luwf' llf'f'n h11h·ln1 laM-r bolnJl' ll'pnratlon oncl fusion trdmol ntrirs In ltah· and Wrst C -rm any nd whllr Iraq clot not 'f'I havt' a ianlfiranl hlch·f'llr lmivf' manufoclur· •Tl ¥t nH a numhrr nf r1pl lvr t ·1 nn fl April 1117 al an ln lo•trial plant· In I a Y 'llf'• ir·Mf'r whrrr '' '' '•' rnmp-nu ' ' lll'ln1 hullt fnr OSIR O and nlhrr rr••·tiir• c 1i1 fur thr llf1tnl•ln1 • 'lalm t h · a ' ' ' ' unln ••·n 1- ff'ftrh rnvirnnmrntalht 11nup whlrh rll I tllf' Tlm'f' · Milr ldand rala•trnphr •• thr ratnh·•I that lrl-r thr r ' · Snnrthrlf'I • thr _of l 'ilRAK nomt••n nl 11 prnff'l 1lonal· l•m drmomtrat h lllf' 1v11run 11 ' of milltan··h'I ' 1•la•ll p1n 1 and thr plaffrtrnl nf thr rha hnr lrd tn ltl 1 1rail pi ion lh•I thr altar •·•• ' ' '' h · lua 11 a11 nl• Sn far II •PPl •n lhat harit ha• 1 llnN• I In •ttlMlanllalr lhrvo pirlon• 11111 or lMth111 ' l l ll1ilill t'On lrn 111111 I u11clt•r Ill with l 1111o lav 1U blan''t' on 11 larKc 11rn1 manufodur in11 facllil ' 111 Al hkamlaril'llh that will 1noclm't' artlllrn· 11n•I 11mm1111ltlo11 up to 130 mm In r111ilwr 1 lr11 1 '1 fu111r1• pl111t' l11d11 11· the at-c1ubillon if 111 lt• ut onr 1u11l axKsihlr 11s man ' 11 four t•l•' ·lrlr powl'r reactor l a11lulad Is llf'ltntl11tln11 with '1 t G1•rmanl' lluh- ur1CI 1-·r11nn' for 11 fill l 'I' m1 01w11tl rlt'drid lC1w1•r rf'11rtor that 11 lo Ill' huilt nt•ar Samarra It ha •hiulalrcl that uwarcl of tlw rontrac t will IN l'fmcli· tlonal upon Ollrt't'Pll'nl h · tht' hidclt•r In ' Pl h· ftlf'I for tl1I' rc•aclor os wrll The- dt'Cislon on who will huiM th«' rl'ador ha1 tffn tponrcl Sf' 'rral timl'I most ttntlr 1lntil 31 Dl'l·rmhrr 19i9 In part thb foot-clra11· tdn1t ma • l f' Ottrilmtoblt' to lr11ilimatf' 5aff't ' ronet'rnS rai W«l by the thr Thrtt Mile hland accident The Iraqis dalm J It much last sprln11 Howr 't r It Is also lruc that thr clt la · can hr r•ploitf'C to Ra11hclacl's acl 'onta11e as a mf'ans of incl11cin1t all thrf'f' eoml «'titors who probab · hrlir ·t that winnin11 thr S 'lmarra rontract woul I 1thf' them an inside track i thf' hicldin11 on an ' futur ' rt'actors to hr mort' forthcom· in1t In thf' lclnfts of nuclt ar ossislanCP tht' ' art willina to r lltend In an ' f' 't nt furthf'r di'la ·s ma ' hr l llll«'Ctf d and It Sttms unlilceh· that thf' Samarra rr u·tnr will hr Ol «'ratinnal hrforr thr lair 19 24 Iraq wllf oh ·iou h· ht- ht'a 'ih· clrl «'ndrnt on forelan support for Its nudf'ar pr0«ram for 5nmr tlmr to comr Ra11hll11cl Is l10wf' 'l'r malcin1t a '·hcornus rffort to altrr this situation In part h · wndin1t its scit'nlists to morr than a half do1rn forrian countrirs for tralnina anJ In part thrnu11h an a1111r h·t and arnrro11sh· fundNI a rocurt mrnt pr011ram that has t-O 't'fl' I pvr n·thln1t from rracton lo prrci on shOp t' tuipmt•nt Accordin1t to the Iraqi official who Is In charar of his countrr's f1Nl11lin11 powrr pl mt proif'ct Iraq Is W'f'lcina to acquirl' all thr N111ipm1•nt and trclinolnirl' It will nrrcl to achif' 'f' nurlrar lndt P ml rncr h · about I 9 6 2 5 In sum Iller thf' political and reonnmlc indica tors di ICll l l'd f'arlir r a numhrr or tht trchnical uspt't'h of Iraq's nuclrar prnirram arf' suaRrsli 'r of · n Iraqi• ha alrrad · drmnn•tr t t thrlr l'f'ad In r•plnit thr pret nf thr S marra l'f'actor Mn tract In rffnrh In aC'flulrr wndtlvr trc-hnn r« · and matrrial In ptil llr li for •••mplr ·hrn · pan lticl on thr ptojrrt and offrl'f' l In 1t1ppl · la1 mi1Mlrmanl thr rnrld t manlum 1 t In f11rl 1hr rra nr un lrr an lntrr•nvrrn· mrnlal ff'lluar h mrnl thr Iraqi• a• I thr Jai-1ir1r In incl ' II -av In a•nl•I f i on th•t luf'I IArRrh 1 a11V' nf thrlr lnal1ilil In loirni•h rnrkhrd uranium nn it-trrm• lhr Japa - 111t r 111rnth· •·llhdrrw from ' htdclin• on lhf' Sam1ru projoo -1 11rth·f' lntc•n•st ' nudc•ur Wf'UllClllli Hui slnt'f' mfl it or tl1c' if' ar 11IS11 l'«IOSistrnt with lh1d11•11cl's avowt' l lnlt•n· tlnn to f rt't' lhc•lf from tlr1 •11«f1•1l 't' nn forrhm nurlrar a l 'i'tarwr hl· thl' micl-19H k th•'l' l'1rnnot Ill' t Onstrur'CI us proof nf I riaoi lntr11tlm1s to clt• •1•ln1 a 1111dr11r '1• 1i1nm copaliilih' Tt'cltniral Obitaclr1 to Wrapnn Dri•rloP mrnl If lra a umlrrtolcM to df' 'l'lop nuclt ar w1•ap1ms tlll' 1trrot1 t tM·hnil'al prohlrm It will fur will prob ahh· h•• 11 ·c111isltlon of suHklrnt fl 111• malt•rial Four a11pro11d11'5 arr ol «'n at lc ast In tl ory to Ra11hclod fi 't·r• ior rl thr HEU In tht' ful'I to he supplif'C by Fran f' tor thr OSIRAK ond ISIS rradon d v lop rr rnl 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e•f •111·1·e• In 1l1••i1t11 111111 fahrlt-ali1111 I hat has 11111 IN'l'll 1• ·itle·nl in 111 h •r 1l1• ·1•lo11l 111t t·o1111t rit•s • 1111t· 1• ir 1·i111011s 1 le·•iitn rfforl 11111r1• lik1·h· •••llmah• w11111il 111• that tlll' Ir 11th w1111l1I r1•1111lr1• ul le•a•I 1111111 l l nr l l't-1 lo 11re11l111- • a lllll'lrar wt·iltlon c• ·rn if 1111' 111 the• 1111liL1•h· 11alh 1·1f 1lh·1•r i11n of Fw111·h llEl' ·Future Incentives and Constraints l-1 '1• lm ·c• 110 tliwd k1111wl1•1l1t1• of hnw lb1tl11la1I ha 110111• ali1111I id1imt 1111• 11nh·ntial 1·11•h ancl 111•11 fit' of 1111r 11i111t the• 1111t·le• ar w1•a111111s 1111li1111 '1• 1lrn1li1 howt• l'r that 1111' 11r11t·1•ss has l11'l•n ·1·n· S 111his· li '•th·1l 11r that ii l1as l 1k1•n Iraq ·1•n· 1l1 ·11h· into md1 11111· lio11s n 11m·l1· ar 1l11t·lrltw ur l1•1w 1111d1•ar wl'apons fit i11l11 strnt1•1ti1· 11la1111i111t l111l1'f'll ii ' lik1•lv that lra11 lu11-1111litk 1l le• ul 1111 nut folh· 1·1•m1m·· l 11111111' l 'r of 11tll'l1•ar w1• 11w111s ctr all 1111• 1w1h•11lial 1·1•11 1C flm·111·e•s of mi111t llwrn l atlll'r tlwir tl1inki111t has fnr 1h1• mnsl part 1 rol ahh· run alnmt lhl' sim11l1•r lim•s Mll i 1·st1·1l f'arli•·r· 1f Ir 111 is lo ad1i1•n• rt'l innal he-Uf'- 11111nr 11 11111 I 111• a 11111 l1·ar p11w1•r anti if hr ll'I ha' nm·lc• ar '1•a1w111• lra11 m11 1 al '' ha'· tlwrn i ln111 is 1111 1• ·1•r iu•t f'lt1li irki112 1111 an 1•H11rt that ill if i 'f• ii a m11ahilih· 111 1l1• 't•l1111 aml 1uoel111·1• 11111·le· ·1r '1' 11w•11 a111I tlwre· ill 111· a 1111111 11f nndal 1l1•d i1111 p11i11t alll' HI that will ri·1111ire• n•nrt• ud1i111t a st•S 1111'111 of tlw rc·lath·c• mnil' 11f 1hl'fna· li 'I• collr -s nf al'lion Tiii' mh nf- iml r lalh·p llfiorit · 1t·1·nnl1•cl l11-th1• fodnrs th it will infhwnc·1• lrm1i j11clume•11I with r1• pt' 'I to how far how f l I aml hy what ro11h• In 11r11t 't'f•tl will tle·1w•ml in p irt 1111011 tlo1111 ti1· aml inlnnational dn·11m lane ·r that arr 11hi1' 'I In drn111 1' l11rc•n ·1·r Raltiulacl t· limalc• of 1hr t·n h ri k mul l11·111·fih of · iri011 '' ' '' r u·tion will h1• hast•cl 1111 ih '' 11 tl arlkular 111·n·rpti1111 ' 111wtl l1·ss manr of llw hrn ull'f 1·1111sitl1•ralin11 that aw Ir kt' Ir In affc' ·I 1111' 11a1·1• aml paraml'l1·r of lrac1 · 11urs11il 11f tl11• ·1· 11 111 1111lin11 •Ill lw· icl1•11lifi1•tl aml wf'idll'tl uiel rn111·l11 i11M t 111 lw• 1lr 1 11 111111111 tllf'ir lik1·h· i11111ad 1H Militnru Cnn1tirlrrnlinn • f t M't·lc'1I rnilitarr l11•1wfil ill t·nnlim11• lo ht• a m 1j11r inn•11lin• for Iraq In 1 ·rl1111 a ca11 ihilit · to lltlilil 111u·l1•ar '1•a1w1t1 Alth11111d1 l 11d11l 11l ma · c·111111· In rPali 1• Iha 11 1111d1•ur nllac·L 1111 r rne•I w1111l1l 111• 'ltid1l I the· lr 111I 11r11liahh· ulre• uh l11·li1• •1• 1111• ' 1·1111l1l 1lniv1• itmific'anl mililan· a1h· 111t a e• f r11rn 1111' 111 'ion of 111ll'l1•ar we•a llf 11 wilh1111I al'ln ilh· e•mployin thl'm t lhl' l•·a•I for 1• a11111le 1111' · aw lik1·h· to e• 1w•1·I th it lsr ll'I w1111l1I l11·l111 ·1• 11111r1· 1·u11ti111_1•lr 1111 11 l1111tl1•fi1•l1I in th1• 1• ·1·111 111 II fl'lll' '1'11 1111thri·11 11f lnn W·Sl'ltlr C'llll 'i•11lin1111I l11·•lililh•s in th1• li11ill1• l· i I lurt'll 'l'r 11i1• ' ma ' he·li1• ·1• Ilia if lht• · 11111 tlu•ir 111li1•s we•re• f u h11t 11is 1 lrn11' tle•f1•11I 111 ltf'h 11 t'flllflit'I lht 11l11•111l 111t I lm• 1t 11f 11111'11•ar arfarc• w1111lcl 1•11s11n• h111111•ili 1h• 111111 Iron 1li11lo111alir inl1•n·1 1lir111 h · lht• s111lt•r1w1w1·n alt11el I h11•S1· 11li1lilr In nu• ·11l '11nl111u li 'ilh rt'Sllt't'I lo llll'h ntlll'r imnu liah• aml l11111tn lnm S1'1°11rih l'Olll'f'rns 1l1r ln111ii mar also St't' 1 11111'11·ar 1•a1w111s 1·a11aliilih· as u nwnns of tl1•1t•rrimt l sihl1• hr ' I iii· 11111 ·c•s '' t•il h -r I rn n or Snia 11s 't•ll 1s nf cliSt'f•llr iitinu s111w·r1w1w1•r mililarr i111t·r ·1·11li11n in tllf' Pnsian ulf m·a-a thwal li1al Hau luhul l 1k1-s sc•rioush- lS 1 111 1• 'l'n from a military point of 'ie• ' thi• 111 11 1•111• · 111 1111 1111d1•ar w1•111w111s e•ffnrl mnsl 111 1111 e• rl•-i rl'f' 111• l1·111111·re•cl It · 1m11le·m·e• As lru11 's lc· ult'fs 11111l1111hh'flh· m• w1•1l i ' lfl' 11 1• ' 1· 11111111 l1111lt' In n•ali r 1• tlll'St' 1111il'i1mh-cl military IM011dits in full 11nl1•ss the· - IM•th a1·hi1• ·t• aml al l1•11sl t willy m·k1111wle•tli e• m1• 1r1inu fol nm·l1•ai' Wl' lllfl'lS l a11ahilih- l '111l1•r 1111' ·1·n· 111-SI of dn·111mlam·1·s I h1• lat11•r u·tion wo11l1I 1'11l 1il snnw 1w•liti1· 1I 11ul milil lf ' risL At worst 1m•111 11t1r1• cliSt·lo nre• of a 11 1sc·e•11I or r111li1111•11tar ' 1·a1' 1hilih· r1111lil i11 'ih· 11 llfl'l'lllltl_i ·1• lsr 11•1i 11tl11t l 1111 lrn11 1111 lc·ar f 11iilith·s Thi pe ihllih· wns 1111cl1·r· S 'frn'll h · tlw tm• ·irnrsly l'itl'tf 11nsol '1'fl ·s 1lw1lal •' in Frn111·1• of rll'arh· com11l1•tf'il 1·11m1w1m•nl for l_r 111's lnmi-onl1•n'fl OSIHAll' n•al'lnr ai11l ii i onr that th ' lrm1i an• liL t•h· to lakr into wri1111s tc·1·01111t if the• t'linsidl'f snd1 shnrlt nls In aN1niril1u a 't•rr limilt'll W ' lllOllS t•a11ahilil ' n tlu• lln 'llllt'f•alahll' di 'rrsion of Fre•11d1-s111111lir'll llEl rt'Sl' ird1 n· il'tor fm•I m Polilirnl nnd F ronnmk Con1itlrrntfon1 Fnll m1lizalion 11f 1111• nnnmililarr lwm•fits that H 1u h1la1I l11JI ' hnJl • lo IC'hil• 'e' h ' al' Jllirinl a lllldt•llf 'C'lllllll' O 1·apahilih·-al10 'f' all rf'll innal 1lrt'f'mi111•nl'f' a1HI a more• infh11•nlial rol1• in lht• l lnhal art•na-wlll alS 1 cl1·1w•111I 111w111 ite'lll'rnl fl'C'ntmili1111 tlmt H111dul111I hn In fol'I lw·c·nnu· a nll'm 111•1 nf I h1• 1111rl1•11r ·duh Om'f' 11tai11 tlwri•fnr1• 1111' 1ni11t ipal 1m1hl1•m 11 11 will fot'f' tl11• lra11i 11v1•rnml'nl i how lo ichic• ·r that lalm witl11111I p 1yi112 11mhihilh·r c·n'ls in this t•aw twllitit-al 111111 l't'Olllllllie· I I'll llllllf' -Ill A' Im' 11lre• uh· IM·1·11 111111' 1 1ln• f11111lh11 r of 1111 11ml1ili1111' n11de•11r prov mm will nol 11l11rf' 1111 111111111' lrnin 1111 1111· lra11i l'c·o1111111 i I '' ' ' '· m11rt' w1•r tlwrl' i nn i111lin11inn of siRnifiC'ant anli1111c·le•ar ''llli 11 t roved for Release 2013 07 0 I 1111•111 1•illll'r 11mo1111 tlw t1 rll'r11l 1l4•l 11l11c't' or ithin th 1111u•rn1111•11tal 11r mllll11rr tah1M11111•11h Tlwrr wnultl W't'lll th1•r1•forr tn he• ft• ' 1lnrnt• lit' t'Oll lrainh on lr 111'' r111d1•11r amhllioils S11111·llwl1 · tin• umtn·'i d ·ilhn l a'tlihl lr11cl1•n will 111 'omr 1'14•inl ha 't' tn 111lclr1 '' 111111 'k to rt'flut t• tlw 1'14•lt·nllitl llm•itl lo llwlr ilr 'h·11I lh11t ·11111d r1•M1h from lnlr111l11t'll1111 · f mu·lc•itr wc•a1l4111s lnlo an l11h1•rt•nth· unslahl1• sod1•I ' lhal le l' - f· i of a still nol fulh· 1111111'11 militan· t' ilalilMmu nt wllh 11 lnrut hislun· nl l' •litkal inlt'f· 't•nllnn ·I I Far i1111rt• 1111m1•rr111s 111111 t·1111111l1• t•oru- ·rnc nrl'lf• from tin• llrtKl'll'f'I of wl1l1•c1m•111I 11ch·1•r '' fore•htn rc·11c·tl1111 l111111 oll 'lnus Iraqi c111t' il for 1111d1·1tt Wt'lll' ' '· Fif'I nf all lht' lro11ls must 'on idn tlu• l1e•nc•fils lhl' ' cl1•rl 't· 111 thlc t'llrh· sl111tc• In tl11•lr 1111d1•11r clt• 'f•lo1mll'nl from tlll'lr talus 1H 11n 11cllll'n•11t nf thr Son-l'rolifna· I inn Trt'lll ' The• ' kunw I hat if the• · ct·rio•l'h· puuu1• a 't•a11Cinc capahilih· lhls status will 1• ·1•nhmlh· IM't'Onll' u11tt•11altlc ll M'f•rns unlik1•lr lmwl' 'l'f tl1al tin• ' will clc•lilw·ratt•h· t•ast asldl' lhl'ir XPT crNlc ntials h · for t• arn11lc hlatanth· •iol alina lnlt•rn itional tomlc E111•rii · A1t1·11c ' fc'tlu mlsl as l1111R as thr ' frt·I that 1111l11•rc•t1 't• In tht• lrc•11h· c·onlh1111•s lo work to tllf'lr 1uh·a11la1u•-IJC1tli as 11 do11k of rr t1t' 'l11l1ilih· for lhf'ir m·c•rull nudc•nr rm1J1r11m 111111 as a m1•11n• of ohtainina olllt'rwisr 11t111 'ilil11hl1• klncl5 nf n11d1• 1r a'lslstam r 42 Tht· latter considrralions arr important in virw of the e lrnl of Iraqi drprnclrnet on forrhm ltsslslan 't' In llu• nuclrar f h•lcl As sUIUfMtl'fl l M·low • Ba1d1tl1ul Is In a rriall •f'h' st rnn11 Slfflilion lo usr l111rRalnlnR oncl prt'smrr tactics In 5t'C'urr 'flnlinurd coo lt'rallon on thr part of ih principal nodrar suppfj t'H In the fat-e tf at 11·11 1 mr tlt'ltrt't' of dm ht and AmJlldon Howl' 'er the t'ffl'C'tiwnrss of I his lc• ·rrmrr Is likt h· to clt'prml to no small t• lt•nl on ils snt' f S in k1'f•pin11 its lnlt•rMI In n11d1•ar wra l4111s chrnucl1' l in ' ainhhuaih· 4 1 Futl re nudrar usislancr will not ltr thr onh· fador to ronslclrr hrc-1111 W' man · othrr lntrrrch lmpor hml lo lr1111 for l'llaniplr Its nhilit ' to ac·quirr sn1lhlsll catl'tl conventional wraponsl rould lM' a1lvrrsrh· af frctl'fl h · imlbcrtt-1 pursuit of thr nud1•ar wrapons OJ tinn This is prrhaps m t e ·idrnl with rM 'CI to thr Ila 'thisl rraime's muhifatttt'd and romplr11 rrla tlonship wllh ih traditlonnl p 'llron thi- t ssR lint ii also aJls lirs In Ra1rhcl1111's ln 'rriulntrh· hroad and tit• vrrse• links with Its 'rstrr 1 nudrar partnt-rs and othrr mrmllf'rs of thr Or111anlz111ion for Eronomi ' C oo lf'r11· lion and r ·rlopment OF CD 12 u-• 44 McKl·ow 11e•rc·1•pli11n of the• clum11•rs nl 1111d1•ar ''UIJC•ll 1m1lil r11tl1111 4•ulnd1lc•s lit 1111111 ' rt'SIM'f•ls with l 'S t1m- •m Sm·lrl 11ud1•11r 1••11e1rh a1•111•r11lh· c·11rn· t t•nlrols ol l1•11st 1u lrl111wnt 11s lhni c• 011 LIS 1111d1•11r lrandns Sim•t• lhf' micl· HH k 1111• Scwlt•ts hn 'f' Slll'll4•rlt-cl the• hnlMl'iition nf IAEA snft'ltuarcls nn 1111 nudriir 11C'll •lh· of lllllHlll 'lt•11r-wc·11111111 sl11tc•s S 'S 1 11rlhl'r thr Scwlt-ts h11 •e• uri 11-tl sliinaiurc• of tlM• SPT final tl11• ' hn ·1• tlt•nic'«l tl11·lr Warsaw l'a 'I alli1 op l41rl11nlth for cl1• •c•lo11inll nudc ar lt'l l111oln1n· that t lllllel l1•111l to 11n h11l1•1 t•111ll'l1I 11ud1•ar we•a1 tms c·11pal1ilih· llml llir ' 1111 'f' rc'f111irc' l th11S1• allh· lo sli 111 th1• l'liPT 4 ' Nnnc•thc•l ss the• llSSll sh11rll lb 1ionprolif1•ru· · lion policl' In suit O 'f'rall fnn·hm anel national s ' 'urit · R•lills r11lhn than ln·11lln1t It as on rncl In ltse•lr In tlwlr ll lJlfoarl1 lo lhf' Thiul 'oriel for r a11111l1' tllt' S1wirts tailor lllf'ir nuclc•ar IM1lk ' to fit thrir rc•lalions with the• l111IM1l11al C'Olmtn· roncrrnrcl Whilr thr ' shar1 h· 1·rltidw lh1• nudc•ar prcJMrams nf s11d1 tlm-shuM st111t-s as South Africa hrac•I Pakistan anti llrniil lht• • Off' willirur to act as a sur plin-alhril unclrr safc'ltmmls to Iraq Uh ·a India and Cuha Tlw Sovlrls a11par· 1•11th· 'lew 1111' tr1mdrr of nuclear h' 'hnolosw and malt•rial lo hlrndlr NN 'S as a mrnns of nchh•vh1i 1 lmml'Clialt• politkol and N·nnnmlc lw•1wflh while• 1i11in· lull somr 11hilill' lo 1m• 'f•11I nr clPlay 111' 111isltin11 of a r111d1· r w1•11t10ns ca1111bili1 ' h · thr rounlrlc•s 1·on- 't'rnetl -46 II 5ttms lik1·h· lhrrrfort that If lhr Sovl1•b · lw' 'Omr rom·ln ' ' I I hot lr11e1 I s •rlnush· 5ttkinir lo clr •t•lop a capahllih· lo lnaild nudrar weapons tht• ' will prh•atrh· allf'mpt lo sh·mle this fforl Thr lrocals prnhahh· r pcct as much hut calculate thal Mm 11w wrn1lel not prrcs Its opposillon to tlir point of riskln1t 11 ru11t111t• of rt'lation for par of ln h11r an lmporlonl Arnh 11llr as wrll 1H accl'li to ira aml oil nf'f' lrcl to fill lnnR·lrrm S wit'I Pnrrlf ' nrt' ls In llnl' r 'rnt Moscow's natural prf'frrrncr will hr to rl'maln In lht' hack uound and to lrt Wrslrrn nnll1111s Mfll'l'ialh· lhl' linllt'fl Stairs tokr thr lr11d In rllrrllnll puhlic prM illrr on Iraq -Ii Should Moscow comr lo lhr ronduslon that lhl' Wrstcrn alliM wl'rt' unahlr lo lakr cHrclh·r action aRainst Ra1rhclad it mitrht drcidr to pfa • a more aclh•r rolr F vrn in thal f' 'rnt howrvrr lh options would sllll lw• limilrcl h · Its hrn1ulrr fnrrlRn polic ' com-rrns Tl11-sr would vlrtunlh· prrcluclr t11kln11 milllar ' rco nnmle or political strp 1 h11rsh rnouiih lo r•rrdsr a 1l1'Cl l •r lnflurncr on lhr firr 'rh• inclr1lf'nclrnt lr11qls roved for Release 2013 07 tli Ha1d1tlad ·ill ht• parlkularh sc·n ili 't' lo tlw rt actlons of Franct' and ltah· to its mm·t-s in tht• nudf'ar flf'l I l 1'Ca•1st it h u turnc' I to thOSf• hrn t'Ountrif'S as Its prh11ar · sourt'f'S of thf' equipmf'nl and h C ·lmolo1n· II will nt't'tl lo uchir ·t• a mocl1-st iml1•1 irml f'lll nuclf'ar t•a11al1ilih· h · 1111• micl-lo-lalt• H Slk l'aris ancl Romr also l1a 'f' sold shmificant s11p1llit-s nf • on- vf'nlional arms to tl11• lracais who art• inl1•11t on rt luc inll ll1t•lr cll'IJl'llllt•nt ·1• on lht• l' S R In this fif'lcl 49 Tht' Italians maintain that thf'ir t'llports of 1111d1•ar f' tuipnwnt malf'rial and tf'Chnolott ' arc mh- it•c I to strict NPT and IAEA saf1·1manls-ancl arr l'i nlinic1•nt on lmt orh•r llllarantN S not to ronslruct 1111d1•ar c•J1 plr h·r cl1• ·krs To M1m1• clt'llrt't' howc ·rr 'Ht'Cti ·r ancl uniform implrml'nlation of this polic · has h1 •n impc' lt' I h · fraicnlt'nlation of rMponsihilil ' ·anti hurraucratlc corn1 lr dtiM • 50 For its part Fn•nch nuclear t•xport polil'l' has 11nclf'r1tont' a niarkNI cnan1tt' undf'r PrC Sidf'nt Giscard Since romin1t to officf' in 19i 4 GiS 'arcl has rf' 't'rsed the• n·lath·f'h· permissh·f' position' of p rvious Frf'nch 11 m·Prnrnc•nts with n-spc'Ct lx lh to ll 'nrral polic · ancl to SJJl't'ific projN ·ts In I hr pr11 ' 'Ss hr has imhurcl I he• Frf'nch hurraucraq· with a n w awarrnc-ss of the danu t•rs and rf'sponsihililies a'lVlCiall'll with f'J1 p11rtin11 nudrar tt ehnnlOR ' and malf'rials A kt' t lrmf'nt in Gi arcl's approach was his e-slahlishmmt in 19ifi of a prMi lenlially chairt cl inlrrminislt rial ronncil to pass on fnn•i1m nuclrar polic l'nclrr I is at'llis thrrr ha ·r l t'f'n two clf'Cisinns In l1lnck tl11• salf' h · Frrnch firms of nuclc•ar reproccssinlZ facilitiC'S to forc i1tn rountriM in one case to Pakistan in the other sia nificantlr enoua h lo lraca Snm llalian olli 'ialt ha•· fft'f'nth· d mon lralrd On 't'fn at Mil llw prnlif rallon a•pttl• nf aah·'• nnd ar ' In Iraq and a 'nfllmilm nl In acl In ff'tlrain vrnlifrratinn ri•kt llnwt'Yl'r m wrak • nf tlw Italian Gn•· rn nl ih imllf'raliv not In Jrnri irrlb Cahinf'I 11nih hy llfl' •inc dh·i•ivf' ii• lrnuoos link lo llalian ltthnical officials and thr lad nf acrttd inlttnalinnal standards for nudrar ' '' cnnlml• a11 1 that ff livf' llalian aMlon r trlclinc implrm nlalion nf it d al •·ith Iraq I• nnl likrlv in It ar ' · Gi 'ar1I al ' inl rv I In ' lhr ulr nf a iia -w1l I iinrihilr rf'arlnr In Iraq that had hrrn apprn•·rd in l Ji · lhr Ihm Prlmr Mini•lf'r Jarqt M Chira ' Thr N'8 '1nr in quMlion •·•• a vrn· ffi irnl pl11tonl11m prod1inor nf lhr h'llf' mf'd In mpport ti ' F'rf'l'l 'h nu lrar •·raprms prniiram Tn avoid anlacon17inc lhr Iraqis lhr ·rroch nffttrd In h11ild thrm a n11clrar rf'V llrch Cf'nltt-and lo 11 thf'm fra ·• rnnc t 'i hi•licalrd • 'arch rractnr lhr OSIRIS-as C'Omllf' 'linn Thi• i• onr nf It - • 1ha1 thr Frrnch f I that thf' · nnnnt rl'nmlflt'f' nr makf' malnr chanc In ' OSIRAK OSllHSI 1 acr mrnl 13 51 At 1 rf'w11t tlu• Fr1•11d1 an I llulians a1 tlllrrnth· tlo not llC'rt'f'h·r anr ' 1m·indniz f' 'iclc•nL't' that lr 1111 i S1't•ki111t to dt•wlop a imdc•ar wra1 0ns capahilih' If thr · shtl tltl M'f' such t' ·idf'nn' llOth countril'S woulc l t• fa 't' I with a painful dilt•mma On the onr hand · tllt'ir 1111hlid · 1mx lainwd aml sinl'f'rt•h· lll'lcl co•1t't'rn 1wc r thf' lan1tf'rs inhrn•nt in nudc•ar llrnlift'f111inn woul I •lrtualh· didalf' C mf' clrinonstration of dis· tllc•11sur1• with lraca's hc•ha 'lnr On thr olhrr thr nc'f'cl In prolf'CI othf'r important political and rconomic i•tl ·rrsts in Iraq as wc ll as in the Middlf' East in u rnrral would arizur aa ainst a forcrfu rrsponw 52 Thr potf'ntial strrn1tth or Raizltclacl's haritaininiz pr ilion is illustratrcl h · thr followina ronsiil1•ralions - Rv 19'« allOut 2 '5 Pf'm•nl or tl1r oil that Fra C't' · ' 1ns111m·s annualll· wil hr im1 0rlf' I from Iraq Tht cnrr 's1 0nclin1t fia urf' for llah· is Ii prr 'f'nl Iraq howe ·rr is ha ·ina diffkult · m iintaininiz oil outrmt cnrrrnl IPvf'ls and mar hr Sl't'kinst an f' u use to sla h c•xprnh to a major customr•r - Thf' Frrnch and Italians an• c•ndr•a ·oriniz In llOO lt 'xports to A rah rountr iM to offs •t thrir sharply risin« oil import hills and Iraq p1oviclrs a itrow ina markrt In partic1ilar thr Frt•nch arms inclus lr · f'lllll't'h to ca1Jt11rr from thr USSI a larttc• sharf' of lht- multibillion- lollar lrac1i arms market - Iraq has SIO hillion in Eurodollar asSf'h that l'an lw rmpln •f'll as both carrot an f stick While nrithf'r Frant't' nor Hair Is a major monf' ' markf't a number of l 'adinll French hanks are ht avilr dcPl'ndent on Arab capital and petro dollar cleposils - RatChclacl fi1t11rl'S importantly in FranCf'·s lara er f'fforts to rN Stahlish its former Influential pmi tion in the l fidcll ' East Paris Sf'f'ms convinCl I that raq Is rmrr1tin11 as a lracliniz rCllional power and the French ma · he williniz to 20 to considf'r· ahlf' lcn1tths lo avoid j 'oparclizina the nicht• they ha 'e carv cl out in I hat arra - Similarh Italian inlerf' il in maintainlna a ood relations with Iraq may he rt inforef'd hr foar that strains in thrsc relations -oulcl acl •f'f'St'h• afff'Ct Rome's crucially' important lids wi th Middle East oil suppliers in u enrral In l r 11 Frrn 'h ' ' In Iraq nl11rcl al V 00 million Italian al S 1Z ' million · roved for Release 2013 07 0 ' l Thi• rt t·onl m111t• h that tl11• lra11i in• lik1•h tu 1• 11lnil tl1t•ir l1•n·r 1111• udiH·h·-u•inK l111th tltr ah 111tl lila11tlid1rn1•11t -t11 lll 'ilp1111c• •lu• cla lhat 1 111111· atul l'ari cl1 t·hlr tli at l 1 d1el111I c·an no lo111crr t'rt'fltlih 111• 11iwn tl11• l11•1wfil uf lhf' 111111111 a t•ll ' lo 111inimi ·1· 1111' cb111 11w tu lr 111I l111t•u•sh wlll'n that tl n t'flllll'• E ·1·11 tli11111th Hu1tl11 a1I must ' for lh1• 1•H1TI 11 l 'S a111I l' 'il1h· Sm·il'I l 1•f111rh In slirf1·11· Frt•n 1 111 l Italian n· •l 't' It 11r11li 1lih· 'h' ii 1m -111 t·h of Slll't'• ' will1 rc• Jll'f't lo 1111• lir I uhit•din• with 11111• 1•11tirni•111-11r11 ·iclh11i ' •i1111lah•1l 1•arli1•r ii tak1- 1111 1rt t·i11ilo11' 11·111111 hut 1li•1- •ls ult cl1111ht uhoui tlll' milit 1n· nature• of ii 11ltim11h• inh•nliom in tin• m1d1•ar fil'ld Thi• lr u1b Uri' proh 1hh lr'' l'onficlr•nl linwr• 't•r al11111t llwir ahilih• to c ontroi tlw ron lf•ctllf'llC'M l'llC'f' tlll' cl11al harad 1•r of llwi 1111d1•ar 1m'llram i ' f iC't im•lri1• · 1hh· 1' JlC ' I It i' al lc•a't Jil' 'ihl that f- ran aml ltah· will f1 f•I compdl1' l tn ' 'Pf'n I m t if not all forms of c11llal111ratinn in lhf' n11d1•ar fif'lcl In that t' 'l'nl it ·011lrl lw urililwh· that e•illll'r otlwr 'c- h·rn s 11111lin' or 1l11• USSR will 111• wallinK to •h•11 in to fill tlw Ka l At 1111' ml' timr the• 1l1'Rrt'f' to wl1id1 lra11 mar l- e uhl1· to prt' 'f'nt atl 't•rsc• fon·isui n•adions tn ih nudt•ar plan from lama111in1t ih inlrrMh in othf'r r lil5 i5 dl'arly liL rh· to 1l1·prml on cirM1m lancr th it ·ill In omp t' lf'nl al lt'ast hr hf' 'ond its control Thm the' lmc1i' will ha 'f• 111111111 r1- 1o on In lf'f•k In a ·oicl hrlnitinK mailns o 11 ht•atl for 11' 'rral 'Par -lhat i not until I he• ' ha 'e• laicl 'f mitle•rahh· sn11mlrr fo111Hla- I ions for t lw achif' 'f'mPnl of I lw currrnt n11d1•ar ancl fnrrii tll 1 nlk ' K•llals i A 111l11·r appr il I nf th1• 1• lc•nt of 1111' 1 i tanrf' that th lra11is l'Olll I rf'a Wmal1h· l'' lll 'I In rt Cf'i 'f' for tlll'ir n11drar prn111ram from rirnC'f fl cf · n1 i11111 l't11111l•i1 woultl lf'ml to ri•infnrcf' th ar11111mP11h for pmt11nnin111 thf' cla · of rt' 'L onincr ff'w of th ·rnmtriM rmalcl m alcr mort• than a marcrinal eontrillll lion to th1• Iraqi pr11111r im ancl for varima rrao on m°'I of th that ro11lcl 1·ontriln11t• morf' wonlcl prnhahh· pro ·c· unwillimt ' clo parlk11larh· onC'f' Ra1dnla11's inlt•nl In 111' 't•lop a rap ahilil · to huilcl nudt' u wra11nns was d1·arh· f'stal11isht fl Ahhmui h thf' lraiti' will J ahlc• lo offn f' 'onomic im nlh·1 and in lh1• caw of l'aki la11 at le·a t 11hl · upon hnth ludim lin111h aml •• m·l r ' 'id anf' frnm w • 11wf u '' l•Clh n f'tM11fi lw- 0111pl n• -ntrtl to l•nu• nt It d aftf •in IMlff h 'W ' of tflif'hnoluc an1I n1 1trri•I fr• tfn r1- •flf•ffif'iaf VltlfC-M- an tfll''' 1«h in L ith thr n • ·tltbt 1r uht1un ' 11m 11ira ' 11wf intftti tlt f i int 111 ' •• • llf' fatti_ 'r' fut f it1 f at·t dt'• n intrrMt 111 •n111ir1tt8 t1ttUff 11'11 1r1lr1f 11r 1ttium 11r11f1• it'tl t'fllllrt1n11 r11111ih· low ucl lsr 11-I tlw 1•xlr lt of tlH• t'l••l lC'ralion 1111• 4't'llrf' is lilwlr lo 111• limih' I h1· ' l1ro ul i11liil1ili111t fot'lor us - 1•111•ral rt•h1d 1111 t• lo st an• mili111rilr W•nsith·•· i•r c·ommc·rdalh· '·al11al1l1• 1111d1•ar lc't'h1111ltitt ' for f1•ar or l11111t·lnm 1la1i1a1111• In 11atin1111l lntn1·sts - Morf• s111' ·ific· l 'nsion ri•inforct fl hr •011sicln ali1111s of lik1•h· 111h·1•rM lntnnatlnnal rt'llC'rt'llS· sinns to 1lf'lih1•rnh•h· lll'l1 in1t anoth1•r 11111• lo ac•1111lrc• a 1111c·l1•ar Wl'a11rms c 11 ahilit l 't'll tllCl lt' 'lalt 111•111 1111 a1'fft1iri11111 s11d1 u ca11 1hilih' or thrms ·h·1 faa ·e• 1111·•111 l'UllSf' to wish lo tlis· ·nuraKr wiclrr proliferation - Unwillinstnf'ss to l'lll I with 'arN• re-sc 1m'f' i for f'Xample nudf'ar mall•rials spPcialize fl 1•1111ip mrnt ancl skillMI Jlf'r 'nnPl lll'f'tlt l to fulfill 11ational nndPar 1toals ' In all ' 1• ·1•111 lrac1i 1•ff11rl In cl 1t1• to ta11 M't'flllfl· an· sour of nudr ir a i lanc1• 11111lC•ar lo lul 'I' ·irlclt' I M'ant ri•turns l a1d1rlacl 1•x1 nit·11l'f' with lndia-w·hkh thf' Third 'orlcl's m°'I lil l histicah'tl nation in lf'rm' or nudc•ar 1t •d111nl0st ' onrl is a llCllf'n· lial '°'lrC't' of hoth rrprot·t-ssinR aml madPar t' t losi ·r• tc Chnolocr ·-pro ·idM a nolahlc• C'aw in point Tl11• lwn t'ln111triM si1011'tl a hil 1tnal n11d1• 1r coo1- •ration llKrt'f'· nwnl an larrh l J7 t hut llw l11 m·fits that luH·t• f111w1'tl tlu·rrfrnm for Barlul ul ha 'e llf'l·n w · ri·h· limitc' l h · '111• l lhi's loncr lar dinst and ristid 11olic ' of 11111 lrandt•rrinst lf•nsith·r n11d0 ar trdmoln111 ' In other rountric Thi prnhihilion laa In foL·t l11'f'll -Hlllllir I with particular stri11111rnC' ' In Iraq ancl otlwr Arah lalt forf ar that Pakistan mhiht llf' ' lmf' the• ultirnalr l11·nrfidan· 56 At prt'St'nl ln lian 1111C'ltdr C'OOIJrralion with lra11 apprars to Ill' r lrktt' I to an 1•iicha11111c• nf scit•nlists and tht pm 'ision of opporlunilic-s for train· lmt at the Rhahha ·A1 1mic Hf'st•arch Ct•ntc•r RAHC m·ar Roml a ' Of lhr l J fnrf'icrn l 'if'illi ts who t'i•i 'l'fl tralnin111 at HA nc h1 19 four Wl'rf' Iraqis who Wf'rr Rh-f'n courws in low·lf'm lf'raharf' ph · lcs uranl· nm anah·si ri•aclnr r h '-i ancl nr11lron cle•fraclion fihh lraf1i who so11111ht traihinK in hrav ·-watf'r si·11 1ralinn wa Ioli that his 1nn1'l£N'fl ·prfll rnm w11111tl 11111 lw• ' fi· i il•lt•' ' 111·1· 111 f• 11 l ihor 11r11hlc•111s 111 1111• l11• 1 · ··w11tn 1 lanl wlwrr hi' wM11'tl to stmh' In tlw 111111 1l11• l111li11n• w · 1111•· 1·011 'llll'f'fl tlt it lrm1 t'' adi 'f•h· si•1·ki111t In 1l1• '1•ln11 11 11111·l1•11r '' 111111 1·a11 1l1ilih 't• l e•llii lcl al1111 I c·e•rtainh· U l1t'ml or 'h11r11h 1·11rlail ih alu•uch· limitt'fl 1111 lc•ar t•iw111t•rali1111 Ith lt111li1l ul ' 'l Tiu• lsrac•li• d1ar1u· I h at lra11 ha' I ' 11111r1· lllT• •fol i11 111•f rnuli111t l'akht 111 lo 1·11llallftralt• 1111d1•11r rn illn lml thi' i• 1111t•n lo 11111' iti1111 · I 1u1• •11I w1• 1i 1111 harcl •·•·icl1·111·1• that Juc·h '•1t1111•ra· 1io11 ha' 1• f•r IN ''I W·ri1111•h t'f•fl i1l1·u I i hh1111al1ml It •li1111l1I l1t• 11111t'fl hm ·c·u·r lhal l 1 1kl•l 111 I t'ltrrt•nlh 11r11•·lcli111t llmih·cl mililan lraini111t to lra11i l1t1lh on ii' 11w11 oil ·111111 in lr 111 l'lan' lta 't' l1t'f'll maclt• for a joint mlni•l 'rlal «11111111i••i1111 Tr ul•· hl'twt't'n lh1• two 11111tri1•' Ii at''' ' •hmifir mlh tl11• 11 01 f1•w 'f•af Tl111s thl'r•· w1111lcl itl 11•11 t •t't'lll lo IN• 11m11l1• 1ir1·1·1 l1•1tl· for nc•w 1·11111N·r•1th·r •·rnhtff'' 511 E•·c•n if lr 111 wnr In off murh·nr 1 1 llf•lr11- i1•11111 ancl firmnrial l'•i•tanrP a iml111· m1•nh how· 1••·1·r P 1L i•l 111'• illi1111 111•• 111 •ltom• 11 fr 1it• of it• l1tlf'l1•ar 1m11 rnrn j likc•h· In IN• ' ' 'lraim'fl Ii · 11 11111111 ·r of n111shlnall1111• hlamali ul 11111't for I' ' ' 1111• •i1ln 1111• ·n•iti 'itit' i of ih prinri11al 011-ric-h h1•li111 11alrnn• Samii rahia a111I lran-1·rnmlril·• that if' ' Ir Jll with 1·nmicll'f11l1l1• ml•lru•I 0•·1•rall' · rc·lalion• l 1·h•· 't'll 1111' 1·on•n•·11lh·t• 1' 1kht 111i 11r11I rncll· 1· 11 lr u1i rc•itirnP• h n·1• 111• ·f'r ' ' do••·-l111l1•1 I hl 11m1l1 icl l1t•li1• 't• lhal Ua1d11larl fo 'nr' h11lia In S1111lh A i 1n politil's Paki lan li u frw lmman ' malnial rc narn in tltl' 1111d1•ar fil ' cl lhal ii 1· an 11a11• without '-ni1111•h· clism11ll111c lh own 1 lan• h1 1nrnlm1l w1 11ltl ' ' ha ·c· to '1•l1tlt 1111• ri'k 1•f fnrlllf'r 1111111 111 1• In lh ri·lalh•rl wlllt 1111' l '11111•11 Slnlf• · 1 urlk11larh· If ii wn1• 111 1·n11t111111• 111 1• t1·111I a l'tar11·1• In lri 11 11fh•r tllf• lulln lnh•nllon In 1l1••·1·l1111 a c a11ahilih• to l111ilil n11d1•ar w1•111N1t1• Imel h1'f•n clrarh· tl1ic·11nwnh'll liO Tllf' d1a1w1• 1h 1I 'Pali lan will IN willinR nr ahl lo furni•h lh1· ln11• of as•Mant 'f' m'f'flt'fl to 1111 ' tllC • tl11• ·lrn11i nudr• tr 11ro1m1m 't•r ' si1tnifk1111th· 11111 f•1•m rc•lalh·1·h· dim llnwrw•r hl11m11li ul Is lik1·h· 111 IM• rt•lnd ml 111 rf'11·d an fra11I ' '' '''I for hPh1 11h1 l'tlwr II mi1d1t tlll'rrforr lll rf'f' 111 l' V'nlinlh· 1·0•·1•rt 1·oll 1IN ri1linn in limih'fl 11rc•a' lhal 110 not 1m•i111licl' Its own n11rl1•11r prn1 iram nr 11tl1Pr r1111inn11I i11tn1 h if Jmt ltow lhorrn11d1h· thr lrar1i li wr c·arwas f•rl 1111' rc' it nf lhr f11• 1I ' fur '' 11111 known l 11ih1la1I lt I · h11w1· ·1•r 111 11r11 ll'l11·1I l 111h llrnlil 111111 T11rk1• ' In r•·· 1•1•111 mn11lll with 11rnjl11 11I' fur m1d1•ar 1•11111 1•rnt11111 Ahl111111cl1 nrillll'r 111 1111 •' r111mlrh· I' 111111111111· fr11rn ln111i 1 t·11nornil' i11cl111·t•mt•nls or 11wss11n·s llll'lr uhllih· h• 11i1I lra11 will IN• 1111111• lirnllt'tl for 1•onw llrnr• to ' ' '''- Tiu• l ra1ill11n hn 't' f1•n1l1oel off lruc1I 1•11ln•11ll1' i for 11 d1N• wurkl111c r1•lali1111 hi 1 1l11w1••·1•r lhc• ' Im•••• aitn'f'll to 11rovltl1• l a11 hcl ul ·lllt 11 111ncl1•sl 11111111lih· of 11•11•11ri1·l11 l 11ranl11m anrl hn 'I' h1•l1I 11111 the• Nl slhilil ' of litnih•cl lf'f·h11ir11I 11 •islart1'f' 1 1 1101111• fohm• dull' Tllf' Turh 111 • 1• 'Pl lo m11kt• 11 1·l1•11r r1• 11onM• hul 1l11'l' 11rr• 1m•M1111 alih· 1 m•a' ' m·1•r lr1111'11 1111rl1•11r umhlllnns Ii T11rk1·r's 0 11ill'mma draw5 11lh•nll11n In anolhf'r 11rol1lf'l11 tl1Jt will ha 'f' lo llf' 'l'i1tl11•cl In l a1d11l11 l'11 1·11lr11lallrn1s that of 1111' l ik1·h· rc•ncllons r 1111 lr1lm1 ll· 1111• 111•ir11l1t1rs In lb n11d1•ar w1•111101111 11111hitinm Fo 1 lwir 11iort 1111• Turks w1111 l1l f t'f•I 1 lm•11i1•111'f I If lrn11 ic' 11tlrtoel 11 1111d1• tr w1•111mn' l'ltl nlillih· Ank11r11 '11 rP s11t1llM' l111w1••·1•r wnulcl 11rol111bh· l1t• limitc'fl for l1111h pnlili ·al ancl f'l'llllornk · rt'3 111115 tn ll't0klr11t s1 f' 'lfic ATO ltllOllJlllc'f•• In «nunln llH• iro111 tlm•11I fi l l a1tl11lml 1· 111 l1t• le• r1111ficl1•11I tl111t lls 1111rs11ll nf 1111dt· tr w1• 111011s 11r1Nl11rli1 11 1·1111ahilih· will 11111 s1111rk 1•111111 1110111·li i•wh1•rc• In tlll' fhl1llc• Ensl 1111 prnfc•ssinm nf 1ll'1lil'alion In lh1• princir ll's nf Muslim c nllnhornlinn 111111 solicl irll r nrr• ll•'lll'r tlh· rllsc·n11111t el 1i - Its cnrrli· itiortl t llf'i1tl1l1ors 11111 t nf whnm w1111lcl IN• lilu•h· tn •·lt•w 1111 lrn11i 1111rl1•1ir l1t1mli ' lc i r1•lf'v1111t In tlwlr 11 ·i•rull ' ' ' '' wilhin 1111• 1·nnh• I of tl11• Aruli·ls m·li 1lh11111t• 1 1 111 In lrn11'11 own rc'l lnnnl amhilinns In any 1• ·1•111 H ud11l 111'11 n11cl1•11r pr111mim has rf'portrcllv ol · r1•111h· sllrrc• I Srrlun lnlrrr•sl 111 mounllnR a simlliir c·rt 1 r1 111111 If 11r1·' 11 I n1tiirc•s11h·1·h lru11 '11 qursl for ·•·1•11111111 ·1111pllt·11lil1• furlltllf'• 111111 IPrlm11ln1n 'ould lmna 11l1t111t 11 rt•vhrnl nf lrnn's 1111rlt•11r 11111hlli11ns n t · tlf• urhml nr lm f'o lina 11cq11hlllnn of 1md1•11r w1•a111•11' hv a c·1111nln· with lrnc1's lnlc•mPf'rnlf• crf' lf'n• 1i11ls wo11l1I IN• 11arlicularh· 1111 1f•tllnll to lhr S11111ll• nnd othrr P1•rsian Gulf Arabs Thr S1111 ll11 l111•·r lomi rr· cwrcl1 I lri111 1111 11 mnlnr rl 'nl for lnfhu•m'f• In tl1r A rnh ·orl1I nn1I f'Sl41' 'inllv in tl11• ulf hut 1111• • nr1• wc•ll 11w11n• lhc• ' rnnnnl mah'h lrn11I milll11n• mlRhl and ha ·1• trnrlitionalh· W•llllhl lo 11N'flmmoda1t• lh lr rrulical nl'i1thl111r Rh·111lh would 1noh11hh• frc•I com lf'llrcl In 1111111 I lh r1•lntlon' mnrr clmrh· lo H111Cluln I In 1t •nl1I oH1•111linR thc• lrnral• fl 'l Finalh llwrr Is lsrnt•l tit 1'fm i1l1•r Thr risk 1h11t 1111 h· or olhr•rwlM• int·1111llo11 111'1ion r1111l1I 1mwnk1• n · 11rr'f•m11tl ·1• 11ll111·k from thul 1111nrlrr hM 11ln•11•h· llf'f'n f lll•1I Wl1il1• tlll' 1lm•d111l1I of hr111•ll l11ln11111•1• 1 1111· 1·l••11f 1111· lri111I 1111111 1 t 0 f'rl11inh· rtoe·111ml11• lla11t thl' roved for Release 2013 07 03 clanarr or liolh cov rl Ill ovrrl llhl·•lcal lnlrrw•nllon Is vc-rv rra I Conclu1lon1 and Implications HO Wtt have- no hard ttvlclrncf' that lr11 1 has a l'l'I cl cl lrd to IC'flUlrf' nudrar wrapons Nonrlht'lc Iraq's 1tt11rlh· ront'f'rns rralonal umhltlnns as ll'rllons of lntrnl to matd1 hrarll nudrar t'Rpal1illllM and 1 mmt lralrcl lntrrl'st In tf't'lmoloalM aml malrrlals that would he- nt f' INI to dttvrlop an autonomous m drar wttapnns pnlentlal provldt' strona rttason In bellc ve that RatEhdad has al lrasl dt Cldt d to put llM-H In a lllnn lo produce' r111d1•ar wf'apons If It rvrnlu· allv clf'llrrs to do M1 bv clrvrloplna 11 rr ativ h· M-H0 suf flclC nt nudrar lnd111lrlal base 67 This conclusion Is conslslrnt with what WC know or the m erall pi llcv environment In Iraq Ra1d1dad's political ·and mllllarv motives for pursulna Ml 'h a coursr are slrnna The hia hlt Cf'litrallzrd authorltar· Ian Ra 'thbt political svstrm lnsulatM lhf Iraqi lracl1•n aaalnsl public pressurrs and facilltatrs mnlntrnancr of t hr nf't'rs 1 y drarl't of M't'rf't' ' AA While llie lr11qls olwlouslv heliC ve that theo leovrl of pollllc11I and military ride asVlClatP I with theolr currrnt pallrrn of acllvllv In tl1eo n11dr11r flrlcl b occrptoblr thry have t'Xhlbllrd as notrd rurlirr a arralrr dt'llrtt or pral mallsm and rledbilitv in thrir forf'la n policy hehavior overthl' piist §f' 'Pral 'f'US that s11a a r11h that lh«'v art' not In am· particular ln rr · lo achlrvt' thrlr morr amhlllmu ohlf' 'llvf'S Morl'Ovrr Iraq's top lrad1•rs art' 1 rohahly olrr1uh· wrll awarr that oveorut1 1lrM lvr p11r1111t of thr nuclrar weoapons option could br hi11 hlv counlrrproclucllve In tf'rms of Its rffocts on other and morr pr slntE national lnlrrMts Thry are thus likely to favor a covrrt and rrlatlvrh· mr1Hurrd nuclear wral Ons rMrarch and drvt lopmrnl rffort which 1£ ulllmatrly callrd upnn to do so could rraMtnahly hr «'llllC'Clrd to proclucr wvrral clrllvrrahlr warhrads brfore It was uncovrrNI fi9 Thr wlde-ramdn• nature of Iraq's qur lt for nuclrar lrchnolot1v s11a11 ts that Haihd1ul dOM not 'rt hllvr a flxrd plan for achlrvln11 thl5 «• I Hla h-profllr slmrlcub lnvnlvlnc cllvrrslon of Frrnch llF t ·or furl auhslllullon In soft'lluarclrcl rrnclors woulcl howr 'l'r M't'm to ht• rulrd out PS 1m •thlnc morr than la t rr Orl mrimarr11 70 Harrlna 50mr unforrM'1'n chanl r In thr Mlddlr 1- a t mllltnry or politlrnl rnvlronmrnl thnt hrouaht ahout n · markf'd shift In naahrln l's currrnt polklr11 l lorlll amd l'lf'rt'f'llllnns of rl k wtt lwllr 'I' th11t II 11 unlikrh• that lrac1 will 11llrm1 t lo lmild nuclt 11r 1ow11p ons lll'forr thr lutr IDKOs 1 • In tl1f' lnlrrlm howrvrr tllf' lraql1 'an Ill' r1pcoe ·trd lo prrslst In trvlna to C'fllllrr all thr nt't'f's'llr'' 1ki111 faC'llitil'I uncl fl5 llr matrrlul undrr th t'O rr of tllf'lr pc•ul'l fol nudr11r pro«rom 71 u no hdad follows this rourtlf' of action It will prollllhly hr successful In drlrrrl1111 an ' wrlo111 1111 - plh•r prrs urrs both Wf'Strrn and Sovl«'I ovrr the nrlll M vf'r I 'ears The dual d1uractrr of Iraq's nuclror proaram Is howrvrr llkrly to become lt SS and ic amhi1Euou1 as llw country approad1M a cap11hlllty to lmlM nuclrar wrapon1 Tl1r l r irlls mort Ovrr are llkrh· lo nlM mnr«' •lrRf'nl alarms as soon a• lht y can make a plau lhlr casr-lioth to mohlllir lnlrrnallonal prrssure aplnsl Iraq and to Justify In advance am· · dirttt action the'I may dt'Clde lo take 72 Althoua l thl' prr lt'nt llntlts of lsrarll tolrranre arr unknown II we ms i'l'ason hlr to 05 i1mr thol lhry will he dislncllrwd to rhk t11kln• anv rra llv clrasllc a 'llon unlrss thf'Y arr convinced that Iraq Is on lhl' veor11f' of al'flulrlnll onr or two drllvrrahlr nudrnr wt apons Hf'nce rvrn thouRJ i early Iraqi divrnlon of thr Initial suppllrs of Frrnch HEU wnulcl hrln11 th«' brnrlls lo hl11 h stair of olc•rt It mhdit not trllltEf'r on lmmrdlalr prl'f'mptlvr rf'5pon ll' hrcausr Tri Aviv could count on 50me delay before Raahdad wnuld lw ahle to con ltruct usablr nudrar wrapnn I born thl' material 73 At thr umf' tlmr howrvf'r hrarll pt r 'f'ptlon1 ancl optlon1 will llf' aff rctf'fl bv foturr chan11f'1 In lhr rMElonal and tElohal polltlcomllltnry rnvlronmrnl In conM Qnene« If the lraql1 1lmply monalle lo avolcl provoklna luarl or thr Wf'St for four or flvr yran limr mlaht work to thr lr advanlllllf' Ry lhen thl'y ma ' no lonRrr I so clrPf ndl'nt on forr ll n nudrar a lsllltancr and thr brarll1 mla ht find prHmpllvr lnlrrvrntlon politically and mllllarllv mort difficult 7 4 Altho1111 h wr cannot forecast wllh any df llrl't' of conflclrnce J11 lt how the lraql I woulcl hehavr If they al'luallv acqutrrd nudenr wrnpons durlna the c0mln1 drcMlr wt' douht that lhrrr would hr major rhnm1rs In tl11•lr ovt'rnll forrlan policy nhJrcllvc•1 Ra1dulnd 11 virtually Cf'r1aln lo rrmnln 1trnnaly nntl-hrorll It I also llkrly lo hr al ocl h with a numhrr of Arnb •• Althn 1Rh •• ' ' ' ' lndlca1 t unlik lv • ' ' df'vf'lnp mf'nflhal ml«hl prnrnpl fla1hdad In 1C' 'f'lf'ralf' 111 nuc lf'•r ' ' • ' tlmf'lahlfo wnulrl t fwf'rl •Ntul•ltlnn nf • 1nh lanllal quanlll I nf for l•n-priwh1rrd 11 11 malf'rlal 16 -rc p Sau _ ·------·--------------····· ··-· ·-··------- - -----· --------- -- - - -· 1lll l'tn1111·11t• 111111 l' lll'li• 111·1· 11·1·11111·11 j 1 ' h·11•iu11 i11 ih n•l lli1111• ilh Iran En·n if lr 111 11·1111irc•1I 1111d1· u l'ill' ' ilhi11 tlw 111• I le• 1•ar• h ' 1111111 11111 li1•h1 lo i '•lafr E1tH1linh l 1 1·•itl1·11t S ul 11 or lirlmc lla'thl•I• lei ' ' ''r rl · '' ' In 11 rah 11rltl 11r 1111111 lh1• 1•1111 fnrl'i1m 1• 11l11i1 iliu11 111 trihal or ·turi 111 11111'1''' tl1al h 1·111l1·111k 111 lrnq •n 1111' ollwr lia111I tin• Aral1-l-r lt'li 1li•1111lc• 11111 I 1ir11hahh ·1 i1t11ilk 1111h· 1H1·1·1i 1 7 i l'11li1· makc•r• on l1olh •itlc·• of 1l1al f1•111I 1111111 l1a ' In n•llilnk lln•lr mllilar 111 111 1111cl •lr 1h•1t 1111 1' l'f ln111 m·1111i•iti1•11 uf t11U'l1· 1r t'a1ot1n l•lllcl 11111 111•1·1• uih· 1• lal11i•h a '' '' ' h 1la1111• 11f h•rror in 1111' li1l1ll1• l· 1•I lwn• i11dtl1·11ls tli 1I 1·1111111 tri1t1tr•r l11 1iliti1•s an• t·1111111111n iirnl fc·w l1• 11l1•r' ha ·1• m11d1 11111l1·r•lancH111c 11f tilt' 1·1111't•c111•·111·1·' of 11•i1111 1111dc• ir c•apon ' 'Ii The• i11111lkati11n' for l 'S 11olid1·s arul inh'rt• ls of tlw imhmll'nts ulmm l'll thm lar 11111J1•r ·11rt• ll11· 1• 1k· 111'''4' 11f 1111• 1· i•li111t intn11ati1 1i 1I n11n11mlif1·r iti11n n•itillll' In 'h•w 11f tin• l1• ·1·rn11c· that lract 1· 111 l1rin1C to l t·ar on Its 11ri11dp 1l 1111d1• 1r s1111111in 11 dmi 1·1·s nf hr11a1I 111111 linll'h l'' 'l 'rnllon h1 1lc-11 ·i1111 l 111h1lml f urt l1n w1• 11111n ·a1111lkahl1• malrrials h· ·l11111l1111 ' 111111 17 rq11i1111lt'nl rn11 · 1ru111 ' ''tu f11lr 1l1•1 t·111lin111111 tlu·· n 11t1n- of 1111' ih•m or k1111wl1'tl1t1• t' on1·1•r111'll The• 111111lirntio11 h I lw l 'nlh'CI Si ah· t1f 111'11 ' ' llFl 'Sllrt' lo 4't'llrt' 'tll'h l'IMllN'rlllillll whl'lhn 11111 It 'llS 11hll111•1I lo ' I ' to 1111 Mo '111111 11r11h1 hh· ni·11h1 1·1111 hl r11hl1• lril'llun in lh r1·li1li11n Ith 11 1111111IM•r of lls 1iri11d1111I OH 'I anti 1' TO parl11ns-partl1·11l11rh· with Frutll't' 11111 lt ih' i7 Sinn• 'ii orous l1•1·i111nl111t ' clrn al 1•f111rts t•oulcl IM• c111ih• c·1 th· 11111 still im11l1•1111 1h• h1 kc'f'll lr1111 fr11m 111·1111lrit111 1111d1•11r w1• 11M•llS h ' th1• l111t• 1 11 0s if It hlu•' to 1ln c1 thl'l't' will IM• 11 1·l1•ur llC'l'cl for llllrllllt•I rfl11rh 11inw1I 111 imlir1•1·th· 111f1111•111fo11 tin• s 'l·urlh· c·1111c·1•r11 1111tl111i 1I 1111uls 111111 forl'illn M1li1• ' ohj1•1·lh·c-s that 11romi'lt' lo ht• 1111' 1 ri11111rr cl1·h·rmit11111ts of IMlth I tlw 1li•11r1't' of ur1t1·111·r llmt 1111• lr1111is attud1 to tlll'ir 1111d1• 1r ·1·a1M111s i111iiili1111s 111111 2 tlwir h1•h l '- inr if ouul 111·11 tlwr l'ross thr w1•11pons tlnPsholcl l'r111tn· lowuril 11 liro ull · 111·t·1•ph'tl lll'lll't' iwttl1•1111·11t In tlu• Mi1l1ll1• Eu't will l t• 11urtk11l11rh· l1111M1rt1111t in tl1i 1·011t11't·li1111 l1 1·1111s1- if 1111' ln1o1is 111·1111in• a 1111- 1· 11 '' ' r1111 1hilih' 111 f t•t• s11d1 11 s1•1tl1•11w11t Is ad1h• 'l'tl lht• il1• t 1loi1 1i11111•H1•1•ts of thrh' lll'l'llllllllish mc•nt 'ill IM• 11r1•11th·-11111I 11nl11111s clisi1 trcn1sh·­ ma11111fi1•1I ---------·--·----------- In ANNEX THE IRAQI ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION I lr11c1 '• nudr11r polidf'I 11rr wl h • PrHitlf'nl Saclcl11n1 Hu1avr1 In hi c11pacllv a1 Chairman of lhr lracal Atomic Enrrin· CommlHion hul thr da ·-tn-da ' aclivllit'I of lhe IAEC are mam111rcl b • 11 Ot-amtv Chairman Dr 'Alxl al-Raznq fbshlml ThP IAF C has four componrnh - ThP Office nf Pnllclrs and Prot1ram1 Is rrsponsl· hie for cnordinalln1 the rMearch 110als nf the IAEC with forPIRn lnslltulrs It also malulains contact wllh lhl lntl rnallonal Alnmlc EnPrirv · Aae11cy - The Offl ' for F rlucallnn and Tralnln Is In chllrllP nf plannln11 and nr1anl r ln11 Mucatlnn cnur M t nd lrclurrs for IAEC prnonnPI -The Office for Administration Is rt'Sponsibll for St Ct1rllv and all administrative affaln - The Office for Prnft ls lhr larir t and mnsl Important IAEC cnmponrnl Is rrsponslhl - for thP construction nf all nrw hulldln11s for nuclPar prnJt ts lncludln1 nuclHr rf'Sf'arch and powpr rraclor proJf'Cls It Is also rHponsit le for lht' rrvlew of construcllon bids and cost rstlmaln nf nuclrar prolf'ch 19 2 l ryoml thrw rneral llrs wr know Vf'h' lltllr about thr nJlf'ratlons of tl1r IAF C or Its suhonllnate rt'M'arch et ntrr IN' pholotiraph and map lfowrvC'r II has llf'C'n rrporl d that Or Ja'lar Ja'far Iraq's IW'lt tralnrd nuclrar phvslclst has rn11a11rd In weapons· rrlctrd rf'lf'arch pnssihly nn morr than fraslhllitv sharlln and lhal hr had llf'f'n authnrl r rd to f'stahl a staff of nud ar en1lnf'f'rs to assist him In this rffort 1 3 Tht' amount of fomllnir for IAF C Is unknown but It may be financed lhrouirh the Trade R ulatlon Council In thl Mlnlslr ' of Industry and Minerals The rdrnl f f rni r-ry lnvolvemrnt In thf' nuclrar prn«ram Is unclrar but II ha bf rn rrpnrtt d that th Mlnlstrr of Ot-frnsr has a rl prf'lt'ntatlvf' In thC' IAF C currrntlv hrlil vrd lo br Hunan 'Abd al-Khallq 'Abd al-Ghafur 1 This mlsiht explain whv It was Oeff'nse Minlslt-r Talfah who aftt-r vlsllln11 Paris announced that the French had plrd1 d prompt rrplacemr nt of the damairrd OSIRAK rl actor compnllf'nts ' Dr Ja'far •d• ' T11w111h1 Nurlf R V rrh Q n l p rllN'flt nf NurlHr Phvslt'I 1111 har•1r1111nd lnrl11dn· 1 Yl'lln ol Pl'I' _ wnr•1n1 In ' Frl'lll'h n11C'IHr etlabl11hlN'ftl ---------··--··----·------ ' 20 ······-·-------- ' · ·· · · l · · · r 2013 ----·------- _ a - - r ··'· ' l rl e 1 P' t' ' i Jl1'1' 1P · '-'J t -$' ' _ · · '- '·· ·'° t • - - f 1f · - - ' ·1r 1 ti 1 1J ' ' ' •• F· · ·· _ · f ' ' '· ··· r 1- l• of •' °'•' • I•'• ' 't 1 ·· · ·· ·1· • ' •' ' • r' i '' 1 P' ·• L ' ·• ' ·f ···t -- ·· ' ··· -' · ' - · ' · ·• ·1 i -· r · • ·· - ' • • • •· •• • '4· ·' '·' · · · ··' · I • ' 1 '