Deciassiied in Par Saniged Cary Approved for Release 201i01 14 cin Rorosraososranotoostooot 7 MEMIATRISE tNEONT fee SO —— ITs — I y t over l umef i BpC saa 12 z _yo4 Ef #K % 2g ——— 5 © 4To Hiss ———y e ccm we pRecror or centrat intelusence — rosuexe ——— wsmeron mes 1 — fecrmse— _ 12 aig izle 2s duly 38 $42 sent hast 8 lm WEMORMDIM FOR Director of Central IntelHigente c Deputy Director of Central Inteltoenct a ji sop Vin Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessnent National Intelligence OfFicer for Warning Fro Robert C Anes Nationa Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asta sueaect Honthly Marning Assessments — Near East and South Asta 7 1 The meeting began with a review of two varning related items s currently in progress The first iten was the Syrian Alert Heo and the aD requirenents it generated from the NSC — The second ftem was the SIE o on Iraqt Muctear Activity and Likely Israeti Response currently in the € TDR stage We hope to have this SNHE out in teo weeks but might issue an alert mnerorandum sooner if we obtain nore evidence of a possible Israeli preesptive strike at an Iraqi nuclear facility 2 ‘Syria and the Soviets Discussion of the possibility of the developnnt oF a stronger security relationship between Syria and the USSR was generated by an ACSI paper on this subject — ACSI‘s point was l that Asad might panic and offer rure to the Soviets than he would under ordinary circunstances We should thepafore assess the inplications af a new and possibly substantial leve of Soviet presence and access in Syria The case for Soviet restraint as based on the shakey nature of the Asad regime vy back a loser f a minority sect friendship treaties were not guarantees for anything in the Arab Horld Eaypt and raq and the reaction of Arab moderates would be loud and clear Discussion vas inconclusive and it vas decided that a coordinated response to the IGC‘s follow—up questJons which include the Soviet angle would be a good place to get a Comunity view 22 2591 wat Declassifed in Pat — Saniized Copy Approved for Release 201301714 C RDPosaososrantoos tooo 7 Decassifed in Par — Santized Copy Approved for Release 201310114 CIA RDPOBRODROSR0G010010001—7 y secret 2581 — SUSIECT — Monthly Warning Assessment Near East and South Asta NEAC 5262—00 i 3 Afohantstan Pakistan There 1s sone concern around torn that atter the Piple the BHHHG nightomic a msgive reve into Afohantatan that might have sone spfiiover into Pakistan The group did not share efther of these concerns »In Afshanistan the Soviets are practicing a policy of ecoromy of forces They are not hurting in Afghanistan and the price they are paying f5 not high — They are getting valuable experience and are making trial and error progress Unless there is sone dramatic change tn the level and the style of the insurgency the Soviets will stay at current force Tevels The Soviets also probably will not make any dramatic military move into Pakistan They cannot stop this kind of fnsurgency by punitive raids there are no mador devots the Soviets would be chasing ghosts If the Paks got too % troublésone the Soviets would use subversion to get rid of Z1 and cause political chaos tn Pakistan that they could exploit R 4 Iran We briefly revieved the necessity of devoting sone of our tntetTfgence resources to the after khonetni® problen e are probably too involved in current reporting and need to do more Tong—term thinking 5 _ Lebanon The Phalange victory over the Chamvuntsts could well be the most explosive event in this explosive region stnce the 1973 war we need to know nore about Bashir Junayy 1‘s intentions Does he just want to unite the Christfan heartland or does he want to unite a1l Lebanon by force of ares Are the Isfaetis or Syrians behind this rove Bashir is an ambitious unpredictable young man and if he is not content with his victory over the Chamunists his next move could drag us all into the maw of Lebanon Bual Ruck Robert C Ames a secret Declassifed in Pat — Santzed Copy Approved for Release 2013001 14 Ci RDPosragsosaado1oostooo1—7 Decassifed in Par — Santized Copy Approved for Release 201310114 CIA RDPOBRODROSR0G010010001—7 seca 2681 SUBJECT Monthly Warning Assessments ear East and South Asta NFRC 5262—80 orstrisution 1 — act 1 — poor 1 — gn 1 — sonia 1 — sonic 1 — cmu 1 — svet 2sx1 2 — nonest 1 — nome 1 — more « 1 — mofea 1 — more — 1 — nora 1 — nore 1 — ntorsp 1 — ntorusse 1 — s orn 1 — sock 1 — ose 1 ood 1 — soc 1 — Ot 4974 1 — 2 08cR Roon 1206 Ares Suf1ding 1 — Sentor‘ Review Pane 1 — 5C Coordinator 1 cnmiese 1 — comusse 1 — cevone — 1 — ceorse 1 — NAG Registry — 1— noone 1 — on 251 1 NGO Near East 1 — nete nes 1 — ositso 1 — State Trym 1 810 Mear East 1 — ovoize 1—isyee 1 Acst oor rit 1 — Of Estimates Or 1 — Antiga 1 — 19 Usic cote tito secret Declassifed in Pat — Santzed Copy Approved for Release 2013001 14 Ci RDPosragsosaado1oostooo1—7