- rs r __ 'Pi b LI iJ ff vt I r_ EOB994 E COPY 1 IN OP IMMED DE RUEBTV #9138 01 1601845 0 0S1840Z JUN 81 ZFF-4 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7592 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 09138 NODIS NOFORN FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR LEWIS E O 12065 RDS-1 3 4 6 9 01 LEWIS SAMUEL W OR-M TAGS NUC MIL MOPS IS US U SUBJECT ISRAELI STRIKE ON IRAQJ NUCLEAR FACILITY BACKGROUND FOR THE DECISION REF TEL AVIV 9063 1 - ENTIRE TEXT 2 AS I REFLECTED ON THE EVENTS OF THE LAST 49 HOURS IT OCCURRED TO ME THAT TE THE CHANGE OF ADMINISTRATIONS IN WASHINGTON THERE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INADVERTENTLY A GAP IN OUR INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY THE TIMING OF THE ISRAELI STRIKE ENORMOUSLY COMPLICATES MANY ASPECTS OF AMERICAN POLICY IN THI$ REGION AND I Ar-' NOT FOR t MOMEN'T TRYING TO DEFEND IT EUT AS YOU CONSIDER HO' TO D'EAL WITH TRE FALL OUT AND WITH BEGIN HIMSELF IN THE DAYS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD YOU AND THE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY BRIEFED ON THE HISTORY OF OUR VERY SENSITIVE DIAL03-UE IHTR BEGIN DURING THE FINAL jt' SIX MONTES OF TH CARTER ADMHIIS' l'lUTION THIS AS A VERY FRUSTRATING SERI J S OF EXCHANGES FOR EEG IN AND VEP Y OMIN OUS FOR US IT LEFT MF WITH NO DOU1l·T TliAT P E ORE Tl E t IRAQI REACTOR BESAME OPERATIONAL THE ISBAELI FORCES WOULD DESTROY IT 3 I WILL SUMMAqizE H RE THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIALOGUE THEN PROVIDE CI'I'ATIONS TO RELEVANT HIGHLY SENSITIVE MES SAGES WHICH SOMEONE CAN REVIEW FOR YOH PERHAPS NON 01 THEM WERE EVER BROUGHT TO YOUR ATT l TION DURIN l OR AFTER THE TRANSITION Tl'E DIALGTl 1 LA_PSED AFTE1l DECEMBER AND WAS NOT SUBSEQUl TLY PRESSED EITHER BY BEGIN OR BY US THAT FACT MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE UNFORTUNATE DECISION ¥ SIT F OB KEMP GURIN 'UB i RM ''cN r1 HSR COMMENTS PA3 E 01 · ·EL AVIV 9138 RECALL El •it-_r- ti t- Fil' TJ lN PAfiT d ' l' 'f lb l2 f2 lL l± J S J fa __ NMVi Date ft J QJJ DTG 0S'1840Z JUN 81 PSN 039309 TOR 16e 1900Z CSN EgA999 E COPY E COPY TO STRI E ON SUNDAY 4 DURING JUNE AND JULY OF 1980 THERE WAS A SUDDEN DELUGE OF STORIES IN TH3 ISRAELI AND INTER ATIONAL PRESS FOCOSING ON DANl ERS THE EVOLVING IRAQI NUCLEAR PROGRAM ll'OUL PRESENT FOR ISRAEL BEl IN SPENT ABOUT T N DAYS IN THE HOSPITAL IN EARLY JULY HE P SKED ME TO SEE HIM AT HOME ON JULY 17 FOR OUR FIRST MEETING DURING HIS CONVALESCENCE THE ENTIRE MEETING WAS DEVOTED TO HIS FEARS THAT IRAQ WOULD SOON POS SESS NUCLEAR WEAPONS HE ASKED ME TO TRANSMIT AN EMOTIONAL PERSONAL MESSAGE TO PRESIDENT CARTER TEL AVIV 13256 1980 IN ESSENCE THE APPEAL 'i AS THAT IH DO EVERYTHINI POSSIBLE TO STOP FURTHER ENRICHED URANIUM SHIP'1ENTS TO IRAQ B FORF IT WAS TOO LATE I COMMENTED IN REPORTING THAT APPEAL UNLESS WE CAN S0'1EHOW CHANGE TE f COURSE OF FRENCH POLICY AND REASSURE THE ISRAELIS WE MUST ANTICIPATE THAT THEY WILL FEEL COMPELLED IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE TO TA E SOME KIND OF UNILATERAL ACTION TO THWART THE IRAQI NUCLEAR PLANS WELL BEFORJ THE IRAQIS ACTUALLY POSSESS A Wf APON AND BY TH 'VERY NEAR FUTURE ' I ME M H THIN TH F fl FXT SIX t' ONTHS ••• WE COULD NOT AND SHOULD NOT RULE OUT A y POSSI llILITIES PARAMILITARY OR EVEN PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE ' Y TH CONVE TIONAL WEAPONS AGAINST THE IRAQI NUCLEAR FACILITIES 5 THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY AND STATE OFFICIALS LABOJ ED TO PRODUCE A REASSURING RESPONSE Wf IGH I WAS FINALLY ABLE TO G_I_l E TO BEGIN ON AUl UST 22 TEL AVIV 15691 IN TErE · E HITIMI WE HAD SOME PFIVATE EXCHAN3ES 1 HTH THE FRENCH AND A'1BASSADOR EVRON WAS GIVEN A PARTIAL HIT- RI'I REPLY BY THEN ASSISTANT SFCRETARY SAUNDERS EEl IN WAS NOT REASSURED HE WAS MOST SUSPICIOUS OF FRENCF MOTIVES BE CONCLUDED THAT DISCUSSION Y SAYING ISRAEL DOES NOT I'JTEND TO RELY ON PROMISES I ASSURED HIM WE WOULD BE '1AKING STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS WITH BOTEr THE FRE'lCB AN' THE ITALIANS AND WOULD SHARE JN DETAIL WITH fiPI OUll ASSESSMENTS OF THE PR03R SS OF THE IRAQI NUCLEAR PR01RAM WHISH WAS PONE THROUGH INTELLIG NCE LIAISON CBlNNJLS IN TEI SUBSEQU1NT WEEKS DURING L TE AUGUST AND SEPTF lBE t BEGIN ASK D 1'1E SEVERAL TIMES WHITHER WE HAD ANYTHING MORE TO TELL HIM ANn I COULD 01 LY STALL 6 ON SEPTEMB R 2° WE REPORTED THAT wr WERE PISJING UP A llUM5ER OF THINLY VEILED STRAWS IN TH1' WIND SUGH'SmH G T AT ISRAEL I AS SOREL TEMPTED TO TAK'l ADVANTAGE OF THB JOVER PROVIDED BY THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR TO CARRY OUT AN AIR STRIKE AGAINST THE IRAQI NUCLEAR FACILITIES TEL AVI T 17_5 c c 0 5'- C-' '------ __ _ PA ii 2l 2 EL I VI 1 9138 ECALLED DTG ll918· 2lZ TUM 81 PSN 038309 TOR 16e ''0@ ' C SN EHA989 ' --------------------------· PAGE 03 OF 03 TEL AVIV 9138 RECALL TD ' S T E COPY DTG 091840Z JUN 81 PSN 038309 TOR 160 1900Z CSN BA989 E COPY EOB996 OP IMMED DE RUEHTV #9138 02 1601854 0 091840Z JUN 81 ZFF-4 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV T TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 75P3 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC T SECTION 02 OF 03 TEL AVIV 00138 E GOPY DAYS AND DESCRIBED HO t' ll'E THOUGHT· IT WOULD BE CARRIED OUT • IN THE EVENT THERE WAS A STRIKE BY TWO F-4'S THE FOLLOIHNG DAY SEPTEMBER 30 IT TURNED OUT TO BE AN IRANIAN OPERA TION WHOSE ONLY SUCCESS WAS TO S CARE AWAY THE FRENCH AND ITALIAN TECHNICIANS AT THE FACILITY FOR SEVERAL MONTHS WHEN I SAW BEGIN OCTOBER 5 HE VOLUNTEERED THAT IT WAS NOT ISRAEL WHICH HAD ATTACKED THE BAGHDAD FACILITY HE THEN REMINDED S THAT HE HAD BEEN ASKING US TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLF- TO STOP FRENCH AND ITALIAN ASSISTANCE TO THE IRAQ PROGRAM TEL AVIV 18108 IN RETROSPECT I AM EVE I MORE CONVINCED THAT THE ISRAELIS HAD INDEED PLANNED A STRIKE BUT CALLED IT OFF WHEN THE· IRANIANS GOT THERE FIRST SINCE THF TECHNICIANS IMMEDIATELY LEFT THE SITE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD THEY PUT THEIR PLANS ON IC UNTIL TR THREAT TREY PERCEIVED OF THE REACTOR'S BECOMING OPERATIONAL WAS AGAIN liEN • ED AFTER THE RETURN OF T ECENICIANS EARLIER THIS YEAR DURING OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER THERE WERE EXCHANGES OF INTELLIGENCE BETWEEN OUR STAFFS I CONTINUED TO RF ASSURE EEGIN THAT WF WE E DOING EVERYTHING POSSIBLE ON THE DIPLO- ATIC TRACK WITH THE FRENCH AND WOULr GIVE RIM A FULL-SCALE 3RIEFING AGAIN SOON THE THEN-ASSIS ANT SECRETARY FOR OES AMBASSADOR TOM PICKERING WAS THE CHIEF ACTION OFFICER IN THE DEPARTMENT ON THIS PROBLF'1 IT AS HE WHO NAS CARRYING ON THE MAIN DISC' IBSIONS WITH THE FREN R HE PLANNED TO VISIT ISRAEL IN LATE NOVEMBER TO BRIFF 1lFGIN I l DETAIL ON THE PP OGRESS OF CUR EFFORTS HIS TRIP WAS CAMCFLLEI' 1lUT I WAS EVENTUALLY AUTHORIZED BY CfPUTY SECRFTARY CERISTOPHF9 TO CARRY OUT THE 1lRI FING FROM IKSTRUCTIONS POUCB D TO ME BY PICKERING T IS WAS AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELE TIO S AND THERE WERE NOW GREAT RESERVATIONS I THE WHITE HOUSE I ABOUT CONTINUING TO l FEP BEGIN INFOR'1ED ON T l'IS SUBJECT I OR REASONS I COULD NOT DIVINE I WAS INSTRUCTED TO MAKE IN SIT EOE vliS l COMMENTS PAGE 01 TEL AVIV 9138 RECALLED DTG 091840Z JUN 81 PSN 038319 TOR 160 1909Z CSN EHA991 E COPY E COPY THE PRESENTATION BUT TO REPORT ON THE MEETING ONLY BY LETTER TO TOM PICKERING E I MET WITH BE IN FINALLY DEC MBEU 17 AND REPORTED BY LETTER ON DECEMBER 24 IN DETAIL lT THAT MEETING INTER ALIA I WENT THROUGH THE TALKINi POINTS PROVIDED ME WHICH INCLUDED SOME OF THE FOLLOWING A THE UNITED STATES SHARES ISRAEL'S SW RIQUS CONCERN ABOUT IRAQ'S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM B ALTHOUGH WE VAVE NO HARD EVIDENCE THAT IRAQ INTENDS TO BUILD NUCLEAR WE PONS THE PACE AND SCOPE OF THF PROGRAM SECRET • EXCEEDS IRAQ'S APPARENT NEEDS AND WE BELIEVE ARE INTENDjD TO GIVE THAT COUNTRY'S GOVERNM- T THE OPTION OF RE FUTURE _ TA i J THE NUCLEAR SITE THOSE FREflCR TECHNICIANS ' HO RF MAIN IN THF BAGHDAD AREA DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO IT A T PRESENT ALTHOUGH IT rs THEIR OPINION THAT THE HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM HAS NOT BEEN TAMPERED WITH D WE ARE TAKIN ADV NTAGE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONCERN ABOUT THE IRAQ-IRAN WAR TO PRESS ITALY AND FRANCE TO REASSESS THEIR NUCLEAR COOPERATION WI TH IUAQ F IT rs OUR STHONG BELIEF THA T PRli CIPITATE ACTION AGAINST IRAQ'S NUCLEAR I STALLATIONS WOULD BE A SEVERE SET BAG TO THE PROSPECTS FOR MIDDLE EAST PEACE F THE UNITED S' 'ATES rs UNDER NO ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE SER_If USNESS OF THE DA GBR THAT IRAQ'S POSSESSION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WOULD POSE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVOTE SIGNIFICANT EFFORT TO MONITO ING IRAQI NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS AND WILL WELCOME VIEWS A Ne INFORMATION T AT rou MAY WISH TO SHARR WITH US IN THA T CONVERSATION I ALSO NOTED FOR BEGIN THAT THE ASSESS MENTS OF THE SITUATION MADE BY OUR RFSPECTIVE EXPERTS WERE IN BASIC AGREEME T TFIRE A S NO DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WB RE IRAQ'S STATE OF THE ART WAS AT THAT TIME OR ABOUT THE GRAVE DA NGF RS IN ERENT IN A NY IRAQI ACQUISI ION OF NUCLFAR W APONS TfIERI '''ERE SMALL DIFFF REN8ES IN OUR JUD' lMF NTS R EGARDING THE DArE AFTER 1•1ffICH IRAQ COULD EXPLODE A NUCLEAR DEVICE IN FESPCNSE BEGIN THA Nl' ED US FOR WHAT WE 1• ERE DOING IN PARIS AND ROM BUT M DF CLEAR THAT HE WAS STILL DEEPLY WORRIED THAT TH DIPLOMATIC TRACK WAS NOT STJCCF DING I CON LUDED MY REPCRT ON THIS MEETING WITH THE FOLLOWING WORDS ''THIS Sl SION WILL SA IS Y Tff NEED BERF FOR A TIME I SHOULD EE GIVE•J T9E INFORMATION AND A UTHORITY TO UPDATE E GIN A T T O-THR E MONTH INTERVALS IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CREDIBILITY GE ERAL EITAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRBSS BEiIN HlUlDi HE RAISED ' 'HE SIJllJECT YEST SRDAY tYITH GENERAL JONES ST PAGY 2 EL A- IV '133 'iE CALLF r D G 91840Z JUN 81 PSN 38319 TCR 160 100 Z CSN EHAQ91 F COPY PAGE 03 OF 03 TEL AVIV 8138 RECALLED E COPY DTG a91840Z JUN 81 PSN 038319 TO 160 1909Z CSN EHA991 E COPY EOB997 OP IMMED DE RUEHTV #9138 03 1601902 0 0£'1840Z JUN 81 ZFF-4 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMFDIATE 75P4 INFO WHITEHOUSE WASHDC E A' SECTION 03 OF 03 TEL AVIV 09138 E COPY CHARACTERIZING IT AS THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT ISRAEL FACES ANYWHERE TO MAINTAIN ANY KIND OF INFLUENCE OVER THE VERY DANGEROUS POSSIBILITIES FOR DIRECT ISRAELI MILITARY PRE VENTIVE MOVES IT IS VITAL THAT WE CONTINUE TO CARRY ON A FRANK DIALOGUE WITH BEGIN OR HIS SUCCESSOR AT SOME POINT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION SHOULD BE CAREFULLY BRIEFED WITH THIS POINT UNDERSCORED 9 THAT WAS THE LAST OF SUCE EXCHANGES BETWEEN BEGIN AND ME HE HAS NOT PRESSED FOR FURTHER MEETINGS ON TFIS SU B JECT AND WE HAVE NOT INITIATED THEM OUR INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHARE INFORMATION AEOUT THE PROGRESS OF THE IRAQI NUCLEAR PROGRAM SEVERAL MONTHS PASSED THEN TH7 STRIKE OCCURRED AT A MOMENT i HEN IT COULD CARCELY HAVE BEEN MORE DAMAGING TO OUR DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS N THE REGION SEGIN SAID PUBLICLY YESTERDAY THAT THE EC_IpION TO ATTACK IRAQ'S NUC LEAR REACTOR WAS ADOPTED MANY ONTHS AGO BUT THERE 'ERE HINDRANCES AND THERE ERE ALSO VARIOUS CONSIDERATIONS AND A NUMBER OF DELAYS WE THEN ARRIVED AT A SITUATION WHERE IT WAS CLEAR TO US THAT IF WE DID NOT ACT NOW E WOULD MISS THE PROPITIOUS TIME ·· I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT TH OUGHOUT THE MONTHS SINCE DECMEBER GENERAL EITAN AND ARIK SHARON IN PARTICULAR HAVF CONTINUED TO PRESS EEGIN ll'ITH THE ARGUMENTS THAT THE DIPLOMATIC EFFORT AS IN iFFECTUAL AND T9 li OPPORTUNITY TO ELIMINATE THE REACTOR WOULr BF LOST ONCE IT BICA OPERATIONAL BECAUSE OF THE tANGER OF RADIOA TIVE FALL OUT AFTER A STRIKE ON A HOT dEACTOR THF P ECISE DECISION TO MAKE THE STRIKE THIS PAST WEEKEND COULD WELL HAVE REFLE0TED THE OTHER CONSIDERA I TIONS WE OUTLINED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TEL AVIV P063 ESPECIALLY THE DESIRE TO GI 1fE A CLEAR MESSAGE TO TFE SYRIANS ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF NOT REMOVING T8EIR ISSILES PEACEFULLY ELECTORAL CON Sil'cRATI ON S WERENOT TOTALLY ABS EMT HOWEVER IN SIT EOB WHSil COMMENTS PA' E 01 'EL AVIV 9138 Er AL LED DTG 091840Z JlTM 81 PSN 038327 TOR 160 1915Z CSN EHA992 ' E COPY E COPY I UNDERSTAND THAT Wf SF ARB THE ISRAELI ASSESSMENT THAT THE REACTOR WAS ESSENTIALLY READY TO GO OPERATIONAL AS SOON AS THE A DITION L FUEL ELEMENTS ERE SHIPPED AND INSTALLED THER FORE BEGIN'S ARGUMENT THAT THERE WAS ONLY A VERY NARROW WINDOW WHEN THE STRIKE COULD B LAUNCHED HAS CREDIBILITY ONCF YOU ACCEPT HIS PREMISE--THAT A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY IN IRAQ WOULD WITHIN ONE TWO OR THREE YEARS PRESENT AN UNACCEPTABLE RISK TO THE STATE OF ISRAEL AND THAT CERTAINLY HAS BEEN BEGIN'S CLEARLY ARTICULATED PREMISE FROM THE MOMENT OF OUR FIRST CONVERSATION LAST JULY 10 RELEVANT MESSAGES IN THIS SERIES OF EXCHANGES ARE LISTED AS FOLLOWS - 1980 STATE 195154 1980 TEL AVI1J 13265 1980 STATE 196 84 1980 TEL AVIV 13396 - 1980 STATE 197260 1980 TEL AVIV 13553 - 1980 STATE 202274 1980 T EL A VIV 15691 - 1980 STATE 214371 1980 TEL AVIV 17685 - 1980 STAT' 215253 1980 'l'l L AVIV 18109 - 1980 STATE 209889 198'il TEL AVIV 18504 - 1980 STATE 220917 1980 TEL AVIV 22340 - 1980 S TAT E 226934 OFFICIAL INFOR AL LETTER DATED - 1980 STATE 245782 DECEMBER 24 1£'80' TO ASSISTANT SECRETARY PICKERING LEWIS BT PAGE 02 OF 02 TEL AVIV 9138 ' lECALLED DTG 'il91840Z JUN 81 PSN 038327 TOR 160 1915Z CSN EHA992 T E COPY • • t • 1' · r · · '• 1