• 1 Approved For Relea900 04 12 CIA-RDP83B01027R000300060005-7 e TOP SECRET' 1 e e I I THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTEUIGENCE WASHINGTON D C 20505 National Intelligence Officers 19 June 1981 Copy No 10 MEMORANDUM FOR Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence VIA Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment National Intelligence Officer for Warning FROM I I Assistant National Intelligence Officer for NESA SUBJECT Monthly Warning Meeting - June 1981 1 The meeting focused on the implications of the Israeli attack on the Iraqi nuclear facility at Tuwaitha and the possibilities of Iraq Arab retaliation Representatives did not think it likely that an Iraqi reaction would take the form of an attack against either Israel or the US -- Baghdad recognizes the improbability of military success -- Saddam Hussein sees himself on the side of the angels while Israel increasingly is viewed as the international pariah He is anxious to perpetuate that perception -- Iraq increasingly is stressing the diplomatic option and is not likely to soon slide back into historical pattern of terrorist thuggery Iraq may however try to use radical Palestinians to engage in acts of terrorism if they are willing to do Baghdad's bidding j j 2 Attendees also saw as unlikely an Iraqi attempt to deal a knockout punch against Iran in an attempt to recoup lost prestige Iraq has no stomach for a military offensive and Saadam appears more than ever anxious to get the war over with Saddam also is likely to pursue efforts to patch-things up with Syria similar pro forma effort be made with Libya but Iraq expects no meaningful results with Tripoli L___J TOP SECRET ---- _I ________ I A roved For Release 2007 04 12 DP83801027R000300060005-7 25X' 25X' 25X1 25X 25X 25X 25X1 25X1 ' • Approved For Relea-007 04 12 CIA-RDP83801027R000300060005-7 TOP 1 SECRETI l 3 Of considerable concern to participants was the impact of the raid on US relations with the Arab world The environment has soured we have placed our moderate Arab friends in a difficult position and although US cooperation with Iraq on the UN resolution will help smooth over recent abrasions we should not rule possibility of concrete actions against US interests in the future L___J 4 The internal Iranian scene remains confused with analysts unable to provide more than clues as to the impact of the Bani Sadr affair on the Iranian political equation The possibility exists that his ouster will more clearly polarize opposing forces making likely a reign of terror that could erupt as early as this summer The possibility of the rise of some as yet unidentified military strong man to challenge the Khomeini cli as caused the IRP to firmly warn the military to stay out of politics L__J I Apl' roved For Release 2007 04 12 CIA-RDf83B01Q27R000300QRQQQ5-Z 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Relea 0 04 12 e OP SECRET - DP83801027R000300060005-7 -- 19 June 1981 25X1 25X1 25X1 I MEMORANDUM FOR Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT Monthly Warning Meeting - June 1981 NIC A NIO NESA _I _____ 19 June 81 _I __ 25X1 Distribution Copy 1 - DCI 2 - DDCI 3 - ER 4 - D NFAC 5 - DD NFAC 6 - C NIC ------- 7 - SA CI J 8 - N IO N S A ___ __ 9 - NIO NESA NIO W 11 - NIO PE 12 - N IO USSR 13 - NIO EA 14 - NIO GPF 15 - NIO LA 16 - NIO WE 17 - NIO AF 18 - NIO SP 19 - SA NPI 20 - 0 0CO 21 - D OCR 22 - D OER 23 - D OPA 24 - D OSR 25 - 0 0GSR 26 - D OSWR 27 - D OIA 28 - SRP 29 - NSC Coordinator 30 - OPA NESA ---------- 31 - OPA USSR 32 - OER D NE 33 - OER D SA __ _____ ____ 34 - OSWR LSD 35 - NFAC CRE 36 - NFAC Re 1 ' _____ __ 37 - OCO FLS 38 - DDO NE _ ____ 1111111 39 - DDO EP r-D _S ---------J 40 - DDO C 41 • NCPO N E- -- _ _ ___ 42 - NPIC IEG 2 X1 43 - NPIC IEG J 44 - OD E F0 1 - r1 --2 5X1 45 - State IN RNA George Harr1s 46 - DIO NE 47 - NSA G-61- ---s -- 1 2 25X1 48 1 - ACS DAMI FII LTC James Ritchey SX 49 - ONl Estimates Br Alexander Button 50 - AF INER Maj Ronald Bergquist 51 - HQ USMC Code INTP Maj Pete Kosmo 52 - NSC Geoffrey Kemp 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 A roved For Release 2007 04 12 IA-RDP83801027R000300060005-7