Approved For Rel ase 20081 02114 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701780023-9 TOP SECRET I I 25X1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence FALKLAND ISLANDS SITUATION REPORT 14 TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2008 02 1 4 CIA-RDP84B00049R00070178002 J -9 I I 25X1 Approved For Release 2008 02 1 4 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701780023-9 TOP SECRET I I 25X1 25X1 2 in 25X1 I 25X1 Comment Brit i sh forces in the area later this 25X1 The Argentines continue to prepare for the arrival of 25X1 Argentine Politics 3 President Galtierl in a speech last night stated that if Argentina were attacked the nation in arms will fight wi th all ava i lable means The government also announced that payments to L I_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ the UK would be suspended and press sources in Buenos Aires claim that the British also have lost any claims to Anta rctica 25X1 TOP SECRET 25X1 LI_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- - - - ' A roved For Release 2008 02 14 CIA-RDP84BOO049R00070 1780023-9 Approved For Release 2008 02114 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701 780023-9 TOP SECRET I _ __ _ _ _ _- ' L 25X1 ' Comment Neither Galtieri's statement nor the suspension of Argentine payments are unexpected under the circumstances According to the Argentines the British claims in Antarctica derive from their possession of the Falklandsl now that the Falkla ds are Argentine the British claims 'are forfeit_ I _ _ _ _ L J 25X1 British Domestic Reactions 4 Parliament will debate the Falklands crisis 8gain on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Commons Select Committee on Defense is launching an investiration of British actions leading up to the 25X1 Argentine invasion Comment _ I Thatcher can expect another stormy debate and renewed demands for the resignations of Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington and Defense Secretary Nott Cabinet resignations ap ar unlikely at this point since they would be an admission of government culpability on the explosive issue of preparedness for the crisis Should evidence of negligence become clear over the next days however reSignations are probable Nott is the more ikely victim since many Tory back-benchers have bItterly criticized his proposals for reductions in the Royal Navy's surface strength Resignations of Nott or Carrington WOuld also demonstrate fears for the Prime Minister'S position since the loss of ministers of their seniority would only be contemplated if Thatcher were convinced that such a sacrifice was necessary to ensure the government's sl rvival 1 I 5 Defense Secretary Nott repeated in a television interview sunday that while London is continuing to seek a diplomatic solution Britain was prepared to fight to restore the Falklands to British sovereignty The British governor and some Marines reportedly were flown back to London Sunday L 'V k 25X1 I I 5X1 r Comment I Cabinet minister most the line of fire for r ln a r e c l e a ltYtr S h o w t h e g o v e n m e n t ' determination to Conservative MP's Pressure for mil i tary action 25X1 wi ll escalate dramatically if reports of British military and civilian casualties as result of r eSistance to the Argentine inva sion are confirmed I '-------' 2 TOP SECRET L-I_ _ _ _ _ -----11 25X1 A roved For Release 2008 02 14 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701780023-9 Approved For Release 2008 02 1 4 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701780023-9 i TOP SBCRET I I 25X1 Diplomatic Activity 6 The UN Security council approved by a 10 to 1 vote a British 25X1 sponsored resolution calling for immediate withdrawal of Argentine forces from the Falklands A number of Third world countries supported the resolution because of Buenos Aires' use of force but expressid sympathy for Argentina's claims to the Falklands I I Comment The British will be pleased that the resolution was approved by such a wide margin but London remains dubious that the ON can resolve the controversy or that any sanctions against Argentina will be approved The British probably view the UN vote as useful evidence of their continuing search for a peaceful solution and as a measure that can be used to justify military act ion should Argentina continue to reject the Security counc il resolution Any prolonged UN deliberations while the occupation of th e Falklands continues would in any case not be politically acceptable in London 25X1 I I UK Military Action 7 The British continue to prepare an invas i on force in Britain for military action in the Falklands The fleet consisting of some 30 to 40 ships is scheduled to leave on Monday The Briti s h cla i med that a smaller force was orde re d to sea last week when the crisis deepened and that it was already in the South Atlantic but refused to disclose its posi tion or plans for its use I I 25X1 25X1 3 TOP SECRET UMBRA NOFORN A roved For Release 2008 02 14 CIA-RDP84B00049R000701780023-9