Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R00030001 0099-6 Top B'jt Director of V ' Central Intelligence Secret ' 1 - l d i' t r ' --ur ' ''' '' o o a 'bl' 'i f ' Jl t og t ln ell gen e paily t ' ' ' ' - ' i ' I ' o - ' n' J 1 ' ' J ' C ' c- ' ' ' vo t ' _ ' ' c J c ' ' ' -' ' ' ' i ' ' ' ' ' ' I ' I t' ' ' ' _ 0 o _ ' -I' ' ' ' ' ' ' Top Secret CPAS NIDC82-126C 29 May 1982 Copy 25X1 402 Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R00030001 0099-6 Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010099-6 Top Secret UK-ARGENTINA British Military Gains Information as of 0030 Suacess at Darwin and Goose Green will enhance British ability to move on Stanley Argentina is working to increase its aapabilit es against ground3 air and naval targets in the Falklands No movement has been reported in negotiations I I liThe British Ministry of Defense announced yesterday that its forces had captured Goose Green and Darwin suffering only light casualties The Argentine Joint Chiefs of Staff denied the claim Press reports indicate that other units supported by artillery and light tanks are moving eastward toward Stanley 11 I I British Stanley area The Ministry to Argentine Harrier aircraft continued raids on the as well as support of ground operations of Defense confirmed the loss of a Harrier ground fire on Thursday I I The Ministry of Defense confirmed-Argentine airstrikes on the San Carlos beachhead but gave no indication of damage Casualties total four killed and 20 wounded I Skies will be partly cloudy over the Falkland Islands today with good visibility Tomorrow skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with good visibility deteriorating by midday Winds will be about 25 knots and seas will be rough today and tomorrow I I Comment liThe British ground offensive has begun in earnest The British needed to defeat the Argentine forces in the Darwin - Goose Green area before they could fully develop their main thrust toward Stanley The seizure of Darwin and Goose Green removes the threat posed by Argentine forces there to the flank of the principal British thrust provides an additional operating base for Harrier aircraft and places British forces astride the main east-west route to Stanley I I --continued Top Secret 1 1 ---' _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R00030001 0099-6 _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R00030001 0099-6 L---_I liThe weather over the next few days should not be a problem for ground forces but the lack of extended periods of good visibil l 't '-y'---- t -lo m o rrow and Monday should hamper air operations 11 Ton Secret I I 2 --continued Top Secret 25X1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R00030001 0099-6 _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R000300010099-6 Top Secret _ _I OAS Resolution Latin American Foreign Ministers meeting in emergency session in Washington are expected to approve an Argentine resolution calling on the US to stop assisting the UK The resolution also condemns Britain-' s Armed Aggression invites OAS members to take measures they deem appropriate to assist Argentina and calls on the US to lift sanctions imposed on Buenos Aires last month Most Foreign Ministers however reportedly do not favor economic or diplomatic sanctions against the UK I I Comment IIArgentina hopes that strong support from OAS members will neutralize EC support for the UK and put pressure on the US to intercede with London Buenos Aires is likely to uster the required 14 votes to pass its resolution and could receive as many as 18 thereby underscoring growing US isolation in the AS II I I British Conservatives Riding High liThe Conservatives easily retained a parliamentary seat in a byelection on Thursday with the margin greater than anticipated before the Falklands crisis A new poll of 400 Britishers shows that if a national election were held now the Conservatives would defeat Labor by a twoto-one margin Eighty-four percent were satisfied with Prime Minister Thatcher's handling of the crisis a substantial increase 11 I I Top Secret 3 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010099-6 _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010099-6 Top Secret _ _I SPECIAL ANALYSES ARGENTINA Air Strategy and Capabilities liThe Argentines have reZied on their Air Force to engage the British Zanding force and on TUesda the concentrated their attack - on the main carrier rou 2FiX1 25X1 25X1 IIWith its Navy no match for the British Buenos Aires has had little choice but to rely on its air arm to attack the landing force associated combat and supply ships and Harrier aircraft The British have responded by establishing two rings of warships armed with surface-to-air missiles around the landin ships unloading men and materiel at San Carlos 11 L I 25X1 IIOuring the first days of the landing this defense proved fairly successful but its effectiveness has been gradually reduced by the repeated air attacks Two British warships have been sunk and several badly damaged since the landings began but replacements--a cruiser destroyer and five frigates--are arriving 11 I ----- 25X1 liOn Tuesday Argentine aircraft attacked the main carrier group rather than the British ships o erating in Falkland Sound Although they severely damaged a major supply ship their primary mission evidently was to hit one of the carriers in order to achieve the spectacular success they need Further attempts may focus on the carriers or--if aircraft can get within range-the Queen Elizabeth 2 11 I I 25X1 --continued 8 Top Secret 25X1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010099-6 _ Approved For Release 20071OS 04 CIA-RDPS4T00301 R00030001 0099-6 Top Secret _ _I IIMore air attacks also could be directed at British ground'forces over the next several days but now that the British have deployed a large number of Rapier surface-to-air missiles low-level attacks against the land forces will be even more risky _ Th Argentines probably will choose to concentrate airs trikes agains t the logistic ships supporting the invasion force 11 I Capability To Sustain Air Operations _ -------- IIAt the beginning of the conflict the Argentines had some 120 firstline jets and 160 secondline combat aircraft Thus far they have lost one-third of the firstline planes and 14 of the secondline S NF '--c-o-mb-'-a-t- ---a--'-l-r-c-r-a f 't'--s-t --'--l l --l-a-v-a l- l-a l b le- -h co-w--lever 10f the 75 to 80 jet abouthaI f may be ready for combat on any given day j I IIArgentine Air Force and Navy pilots are well trained and have proved able to deliver ordnance accurately but the attacks on British forces have taken their toll on the pilots as well as aircraft They probably cannot sustain for much longer the high sortie rate of recent days 11 I I liThe Argentines could begin to rely more heavily on their secondline aircraft but these are less capable and more vulnerable to enem fire They also may get replacement aircraft from some of their South American allies Peru can provide spare parti for the Mirages and specialists to help repair them I __ --continued 9 Top Secret Approved For Release 2007 0S 04 CIA-RDPS4T00301R000300010099-6 _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301 R000300010099-6 Top Secret The Missile Factor IIIf the Argentines are able to obtain additional air-to-surface Exocet missiles with a range of 50 to 75 kilometers they might reduce the scale of aircraft attacks and concentrate on getting their Super Etendard aircraft in position to launch these missiles against british carriers 11 I I 25X1 25X1 Status of the Harriers IIOne major uncertainty is the current status of the UK's Harrier force The British brought at least 40 Harriers with them and say they have lost only six In recent days Argentine air losses have been attributed more often to ships and land-based surface-to-air missiles than to Harriers as was t e case at the start of the invasion 11 I J 25X1 IIMany of the Harriers may have been committed to protecting the carriers rather than supporting the invasion at San Carlos Alternatively the British could have sustained significantly higher aircraft losses than they adrnit I 25X1 10 1_- Top Secret 25X1 _ _ _ _ _ _ Approved For Release 2007 08 04 CIA-RDP84T00301R000300010099-6 _