PAGE E1 OF B2 USDEL SECRETARY AIR AB APR B2 PSN SIT157 DATE 04 14 82 TOR DISTRIBUTION REPT WHT5 ASSIGNED DISTRIBUTION SIT MCF JP WHLR VP SIT EDB WHSR COMMENT NDDIS MESSAGE ANNOTATION5 NO MESSAGE ANNOTATIONS MESSAGE IMMEDIATE DE RUEHAI 1B2B218 12E219Z APR 82 FM USDEL SECRETARY AIRCRAFT TD THE PRESIDENT NIACT IMMEDIATE INFO SECSTATE WASHDC NIACT IMMEDIATE BED SECTO @5 54 NODIS I I VE E O 12E55 RDS--3 TAGS OVIP G ALEXANDER M I SUBJECT MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM THE SECRETARY 1 ENTIRE TEXT 2 LET ME SHARE WITH YOU MY THOUGHTS ON THE FALKLANDS CRISIS AS I HEAD INTO LONDON 3 OUR IMMEDIATE GOAL IS UNCHANGED TO FIND A WAY TO PERMIT GALTIERI TO WITHDRAW WITH HONOR THE KEY ISSUES ARE AS WE FORESAW THEM THE CHARACTER OF INTERIM RULE AND THE TENSION BETWEEN ARGENTINE DEMAND FOR SOVEREIGNTY AND BRITISH INSISTENCE ON IN NEGOTIATIONS ON A FINAL SETTLEMENT 4 I AM CONVINCEO THAT MRS THATCHER WANTS A PEACEFUL SOLUTION AND IS WILLING TO GIVE GALTIERI A FIG LEAF PROVIDED SHE DOES NOT HAVE TO VIOL ATE IN ANY FUNDAMENTAL WAYHER PLEDGE TO PARLIAMENT WITHDRAWAL RESTORATION OF BRITISH ADMINISTRATION AND PROTECTION OF THE RIGHT OF SELF-DETERMINATION HER STRATEGY REMAINS ONE OF PRESSURE AND BY AND LARGE WORKING MY MESSAGE HOPE IS THAT IT MAY NOW BE CLEAR TO HER THAT WHILE HER STRATEGY IS HAVING THE RIGHT EFFECT IN RATTLING THE ARGENTINES IT WILL NOT PRODUCE WITHDRAWAL ONLY DIPLOMACY IN COMBINATION WITH THREAT WILL SUCCEED IF SHE HAS COME THIS FAR IN HER OWN THINKING THE OUESTION - - BECOMES HOW MUCH CAN SHE CONCEDE BEFORE ENDANGERING HER GOVERNMENT 5 PROBLEM IS THAT HAS SO EXCITED THE ARGENTINE PEOPLE THAT HE HAS LEFT HIMSELF LITTLE ROOM FOR MANEUVER HE MUST SHOW SOMETHING FOR THE INVASION -- WHICH MANY ARGENTINES DESPITE THEIR EXCITEMENT THINK WAS A BLUNDER OR ELSE HE WILL BE SWEPT ASIDE IN IGNOMINY BUT IF HE IS HUMILIATED MILITARILY THE RESULT WILL BE THE SAME ALTHOUGH HE IS DEALING WITH A MORE VOLATILE DOMESTIC SITUATION THAN MRS THATCHER HE CAN MORE EASILY BE BOUGHT OFF WITH OPTICS PAGE B2 OF B2 USDEL SECRETARY AIR QBAG APR B2 PSN B35138 THAN CAN SHE GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE TWO SOCIETIES AND POLITICAL SYSTEMS IT WILL BE HARD FOR MRS THATCHER TO SELL TO PARLIAMENT AN AGREEMENT THAT DOES NOT MEASURE UP TO HER COMMITMENT 5 wE WILL SOON LEARN WHETHER MRS THATCHER IS READY TO DEAL IF SHE IS I BELIEVE WHAT I AM TAKING TO LONDON PROVIDES A BASIS FOR A SOLUTION BUT PROGRESS MUST COME SWIFTLY WE CANNOT COUNT ON MRS THATCHER TO HOLD HER FIRE A5 OUR DIPLOMACY PROCEEDS AND ANY HOSTILITIES EVEN AN INCIDENT -- WOULD CHANGE THE PICTURE RADICALLY 7 IN ALL YOU WILL KNOW FROM MY NEXT REPORT WHETHER WAR CAN BE AVERTED HAIG USDEL SECRETARY AIR APR B2 35138