20th May 1985 MR A KENNEDY IN THE by John Browne Member of Parliament for Winchester England Impressions of the Man His Style and his Likely Impact Upon East West Relations For decades the Soviet Union has been ruled by expressionless men who consciously hid behind a wall of secrecy In March 1985 it appears this image was put aside A new type of leader was selected - a leader who whilst not tall is nonetheless physically imposing - a man with a penetrating stare and yet a ready smile who exudes confidence and an inner strength This man is M'khail Sergevich Gorbachev whose signature surmounts the photograph seen above of him standing at Lenins desk in Clerkenwell London in December 1984 He represents a new generation of Soviet leaders He brings with him a new combination of deep loyalty to the Communist party and an apparent executive ability Although he is obviously a product of the Soviet system Mr Gorbachev not only exudes self- confidence but also a distinctiye charismatic style which may prove to be of much advanEag to the Soviet Union Unfortunate1y what is of advantage to the Soviet Union may provide a greatly increased challenge to the West In order the better to understand the new Soviet leadership it is necessary to speculate as to how such_a man was selected for tap leadership within the Communist party system and to assess what impact his leadership may have upon East - west relations In December 1984 Mr Gorbachev accompanied by his wife Raisa led a high powered delegation on a visit to Great Britain During their stay in London as guests of the English Parliament I was invited not only to serve on the Reception Committee but also to escort them on certain expeditions during their tour This included a visit to Lenin's publishing house in Clerkenwell to the British Museum and to the House of Commons These tours provided me with an unique Opportunity to observe Mr and Mrs Gorbachev at close quarters to listen to their questions and to observe their reactions to statements and events From this unusual exposure to the Gorbachevs I made the personal observation that Mr Gorbachev's charisma was so striking that if permitted by the Communist Party system Mr and Mrs Gorbachev could well become the Soviet equivalent of the Jack and Jacqueline Kennedy team However I was at pains to point out that Mr Gorbachev was a tough and dedicated Communist whose actual policies would differ markedly from those of the late President Kennedy This was merely my own opinion but one that was based none the less upon a relatively long and an unusually relaxed and diverse exposure to the Gorbachevs 1 mama ng agave BY 0g It is obvious that for a man to have climbed to the top of the if Communist party system by the age of 54 he must have worked extremely hard using both his ambition and his exceptional political competence and panache Ambition and ability however arouse feelings of jealousy and suspicion These feelings are particularly strong within the Soviet Communist system where loyalty to party superiors dogma and traditions is vital to promotion To have been promoted so rapidly under these circumstances Mr Gorbachev must have shown great patience and loyalty to the party From observing Hr Gorbachev's speeches presentations and responses to questions it became evident that he is a thoroughly polished able and contemporary politician'peoples p0pular leader' propelled from the ranks of either the agricultural or the military communities He is one of the first representatives of the generation of 'groomed' Soviet politicians to enter the world stage Within the first few moments of meeting Mr Gorbachev it becomes clear that he is intelligent alert and inquisitive Not only is he constantly posing questions but he also listens very carefully and attentively to the answers This quality has important political implications in that people assume that anyone who is genuinely interested in what they have to say is probably worthy of their respect These qualities together with his controlled yet warm smile make him attractive and indeed beguiling However he can also be extremely tough when he makes use of his voice his piercing eyes and even his physical gestures to emphasize a point I witnessed a vivid example of these two extremes of expression The instance occurred when I asked him why the soviet Union continued to encourage and finance terrorism in Latin America He responded whilst hitting me repeatedly on the shoulder even before the interpreter had translated my question This gave me the distinct impression that he probably understands English He asked me whether I would consider that the colonists who fought in the American Revolutionary war were terrorists or freedom fighters His whole mannerism then changed abruptly when he then tapped me softly on the wrist saying llbut of course we are totally opposed to individual terrorists such as those who killed Dr Morro in Italy Not only did the above example show his capacity for very controlled but extreme ranges of expression but it also Lillustrated his knowledge and use of western history His knowledge was further evidenced when he questioned the demonstration that took place within the British Museum In the course of my explanation I mentioned that in Britain we allowed people a great deal of freedom Mr Gorbachev replied that what you are saying Mr Browne and what is the truth are two entirely different things Even Lord Byron had to leave England because of the lack of freedom His curiosity and interest in history were also displayed when he questioned a curator at the British Museum concerning some Saxon coins that the Russians returned to Britain in the 19th century He was most anxious to determine whether or not there had been trade links between the two countries in those early Saxon times Mr Gorbachev's curiosity throughout his visit seems to have two implications first he is anxious to learn from the West that which may be adapted to the Communist system and second he never misses an opportunity to challenge evidence that is presented to him This latter quality is obviously of critical importance to any leader because it will inspire increased respect and loyalty amongst his subordinates and it will reinforce his effectiveness as an administrator Apparently Mr Gorbachev's incessant and Open desire to grasp new knowledge is unusual anong Soviet leaders High ranking Communist officials normally avoid any indications of personal ignorance in order to create an impression of omniscience 0n the other hand Mr Gorbachev's expression of genuine curiosity may prove to be one of his most effective political tools Not only oes this curiosity provide a constant flow of new information 'in a society where information is severely censored but it will gain him greater support from both his superiors and subordinates Recently as part of a tour of Moscow he was scheduled to take tea in the apartment of an ordinary working couple On examination of the cup from which he was drinking he found it was of government issue and obviously planted by his aides to give him a false impression of the improved living standards of working pe0ple in Moscow Apparently Mr Gorbachev left in a fury on discovering this deception Such an incident surely will have left an indelible sense of admiration upon the couple and of respect upon his staff Not only does Mr Gorbachev appear anxious to learn as much as possible about the past but he was also eager to learn about current customs and procedures that presently exist in the West f He made impromptu departures from the planned schedules to visit St Pauls Cathedral in preference to visiting the Marx Rtomb and secondly to look at the Prime Minister's official residence at No 10 Downing Street These changes illustrated an apparent wish by him to gain a strong first hand and subjective impression of Britain This reinforced the impression I had that Mr Gorbachev wishes to grasp the essential tools for success in the Western world and to select adopt and integrate them for use in the Soviet Union This may prove to be a stark and important contrast to the action of Tzar Peter the Great who on returning from visits to the west sought to impose on the Russian peOple rather than to integrate customs that he admired in the West Mr Gorbachev appeared to be extremely sensitive tO ideas that conflicted with Communist principles and also references to any potential weakness within the Soviet system For instance in the British Museum when he was shown some ancient Egyptian tombs he displayed distinct discomfort when told that only the names Of those of noble birth were carved in stone This elitest gyptian custom was in sharp contrast tO the Soviet communist merit system Mr Gorbachev's visible discomfort might be attributed to his origins as the son Of a peasant farm worker in Staerpol from whence he rose to the leadership of his country by the age of 54 He achieved his present position by ascending the extremely competitive ladder by virtue of his own personal merit A second instance of his sensitivity was apparent when in response to one Of his questions about seating in the House Of Commons I mentioned that we had benches as Opposed to pre assigned seats and even then by packing the benches there was room for only about 500 Of the 650 members I also explained that benches as Opposed to pre assigned seats lent a certain 'dynamic' to the Chamber which was effectively I The Live Theatre Of English Politics He greeted this with incredulity As an example I explained that he and Mrs Gorbachev were standing in front of the very interesting front bench below the gangway on the Opposition side I described how when in Opposition it was traditionally occupied by the left wing socialist members but that since the right wing Of the Socialist party had split Off to form the Social Democratic Party there were now physical struggles to sit on the bench I further explained that this behaviour Often appeared childish to the ill-informed onlooker but that it represented in theatre form the acting out of the dilemma that now faces Socialist voters in the country whether to side with the left or the right wing of their party Mr Gorbachev was incensed that I should mention that the Socialists had any political dilemma whatsoever such as existed in the early days of the Soviet Union between the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and is now expunged from their history books He spun round upon the rest Of his delegation and said what Mr Browne has just said illustrates vividly the complete hypocrisy of British politics They elect 650 members Of the Parliament and only allow half of them in It is well known that the Soviet leadership is essentially pragmatic It was interesting to see the blatant manner in which it was diSplayed during the first reception at Claridges Hotel - Having been with the Gorbachevs throughout most of that first day I found myself being asked to help introduce other Members of Parliament to them at the reception The introductions went in the usual manner for guests and for HPs However it was interesting to note that when Socialist HPs were introduced they often overrode the normal descriptions of llmay I introduce Mr A who is the Member of Parliament for They usually insisted upon saying am the 'Socialist' Member for This was apparently done to gain an 'inside track' to the Communist leader and his wife The Gorbachevs who were moving independently amongst the guests positively ignored MPs who overrode the introductions in such a manner and moved on to others It may be possible that this indicated an assessment by the Soviets that as a result of the recent general election and the current Opinion polls which showed the Socialist party at an historic 10W it was highly likely that the Conservative party would be in power in Britain for the forseeable future It was therefore important to establish contacts with Conservatives rather than Socialists Despite Mr Gorbachev's apparent wish to show on occasion that his delegation was very democratic and that he was merely the first amongst equals it was very evident that he exerted great authority and that this was reflected in the way in which his comrades treated him During the question and answer period with the Foreign Affairs Select Committee of the House of Commons I was seated next to a very amiable but tired Russian General on the flank of the Soviet delegation The General appeared hard pushed to stay awake when he was summoned by an aide to go to Mr Gorbachev's chair A few words in his ear and he came back sweating and started to take copious notes Obviously Mr Gorbachev is not a man who tolerates much bluffing or laziness amongst his staff It was also impressive to see how Mr Gorbachev fielded unnotified questions from the members of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee on such difficult subjects as the persecution of Jews and Christians in the Soviet Union and upon Soviet policy in 'Afghanistan and in the Middle East It was widely reported I _think wrongly that Mr Gorbachev had lost his 1'cool' Whilst it is true that he raised his voice he did not shout It is true that he snapped back at the questioners but he was not personally rude to them It is also true that he evaded any real answer but he did this skillfully by throwing back upon the questioner the onus on religious persecution etc He did so by quoting allegations of religious persecution in Northern Ireland kIn short he answered the questions with a skill that would have idone credit to any accomplished Western politician What was more impressive was that he answered with such authority and confidence the confidence that can normally be attributed to a position of preeminent power It was this great degree of confidence that led me to believe at the time that he was possibly already in the position of preeminent effective power in the Soviet Union under the ailing Chernenko It convinced me that he was either certain to be selected or had indeed already been selected as Chernenko's successor The London programme arranged for Mr Gorbachev and his delegation was intense and would have placed heavy physical and mental demands upon any delegation leader Mr Gorbachev undertook his role as delegation leader with great enthusiasm to eat very little He was so hungry that apparently he had to greturn to the Soviet Embassy for supplementary meals It was itypically talking so much during official meals that he managed most impressive to see how well he coped both physically and mentally Whilst his physique appears to be robust he could also be fairly described as mentally very tough and agile In addition to the obvious physical and mental toughness which was exemplified during his visit to London I sensed that he possessed an inner strength based upon conviction control and confidence In this respect I agree with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's remark that she feels she could do business with Mr Gorbachev rThe Communist system tends to discourage individuality 'creativity and flexibility I believe that Mr Gorbachev's inner istrength will allow him a good chance of exercising a degree of these attributes that are most unusual in the Soviet Union For since the death of Stalin with the possible exception of Mr Kruschev such qualities have appeared to be singularly absent in the Soviet leadership Balancing Mr Gorbachev's toughness and pragmatism I detected a human side to his character It is this human element in a leader's character that is often so important in contributing to that elusive quality of charisma The leader appears so human and yet in himself is different The above photograph depicts Mr Gorbachev standing with his wife in the background at Lenin's desk in his old publishing house at Clerkenwell in London It was from this desk that much of the very earliest of Communist thought emanated As one of the very few people able to squeeze in to this tiny office I was most interested to see how deeply moved was Mr Gorbachev the potential leader of the Communist world when standing at Lenin's desk It was also interesting to note how very affected and embarrassed he was by the demonstration of three students in one of the rooms at the British Museum They rushed up to about 12 feet of Mr Gorbachev and his delegation shouting words to the effect that he was a killer and a murderer Mr Gorbachev's blush stretched even down the back of his kneck and he appeared deeply shocked 6 Despite some tense moments it was obvious to me that Mr Gorbachev has a keen and subtle sense of humour A number of examples have been quoted in the press The one which most amused me was in the Saxon Department of the British Museum The Curator had just finished describing the greatness of King Alfred He ended by saying that the problem is that the average English school boy only remembers one thing about the great King Alfred and that is that he burnt the cakes As quick as a flash Mr Gorbachev replied Well you did not have to do much to become famous in those days From the above I determined that Mr Gorbachev is a very considerable character and personality The fact that these qualities have shone through from within the strict stereotype Communist party system is all the more remarkable The popular western image of the wives of Soviet leaders is that they are large bland and uninvolved in their husbands' careers Mr Gorbachev's wife Raisa proved to be the antitheses of this popular image She is extremely well educated having a and is alert and attractive In fact by Soviet standards I believe she could justly be termed chic I found her extremely intelligent and well poised She also has a keen sense of humour When the Curator of the Egyptian department at the British Museum apologised for the fact that their route was taking them backwards through time she interjected Well you can only travel backwards in time in a museum What was most interesting and particularly apparent during Mr Gorbachev's meeting with the Foreign Affairs Select Committee was that Mrs orbachev appeared deeply interested and aware of what was going on I believe that she takes a keen interest in her husband's career and I was given the impression an active interest in his dress Figuratively speaking she stands beside rather then ehind him In short she is a very professional politician's wife and together they make a most formidable and impressive political team It is also interesting to note that the Gorbachev's appear to take an interest in the arts attending the ballet as private citizens Mr Gorbachev also remarked that the performance he saw of 9951 ten Tutte was an example of Mozart at his best It is possible that this interest in the arts appeals to the intelligentsia within the Soviet Union a section of society which since 1917 has been almost totally opposed to the Soviet leadership It is therefore possible that Mr and Mrs Gorbachev may provide the political bridge of influence between the Soviet leadership and the Soviet intelligentsia In time this could provide a very useful political ally for him if properly managed As I have said earlier Mr Gorbachev is no liberal - he is a dedicated Communist and a product of the Communist school to which he must have deep rooted loyalties However unlike all of his predecessors except for Kruschev and Stalin Mr Gorbachev has in my opinion charisma - western style charisma and an ability and willingness to use the western media particularly television In evaluating the characteristics of Mr and Mrs Gorbachev it is hard to imagine what additional public qualities were possessed by President Jack and Mrs Jacqueline Kennedy I believe it is entirely reasonable to think that Mr and Mrs Gorbachev if they are permitted to do so by the party system could well become the Soviet equivalent of the Kennedy team and as such they will make a major impact upon the world The advent of a charismatic leader in Moscow could have a very beneficial effect upon the Soviet Union Equally it could have the effect of greatly increasing the challenge to western leaders Notwithstanding the advantages that may accrue it does seem strange that the inherently conservative Communist party elite or Nomenklatura would have chosen Mr Gorbachev as party secretary Exactly how the Soviet leader is chosen is known probably to only very few people even within the Soviet Union It appears that a mere handful of senior members of the Politburo and possibly on occasion the outgoing leader nominate a successor who has to be not only acceptable to the majority power structure within the Politburo but also to the Soviet elite or Nomenklatura It is well known that the Soviet Nomenklatura was created by Stalin to run the Union of Soviet Republics in place of the Russian Tzarist aristocracy and Civil Service whom Stalin had largely liquidated In return for their loyalty this elite were given great privileges including special shops etc To ensure further their undivided loyalty Stalin subjected them to part of his Terror Members of the Nomenklatura who remember Stalin's Terror have a strong distrust and fear of any leader possessing too much individual charisma and therefore power outside the Communist party machine It is interesting to note in passing that when Mr Kruschev began to develop his own brand of charisma he was quickly ousted from office possibly as a result of this innate fear on the part of the Nomenklatura The Nomenklatura enjoy such relatively vast privileges that their vested interest is in maintaining the status quo within the Soviet system amongst the Nomenklatura are of course many of the Soviet military and part of the status quo is the maintenance of massive military spending which is sustained by the maintenance of a constant fear of invasion The Tartar invasion which held Russia in subjection for about 250 years Napolean's invasion in 1812 and finally Hitler's invasion in the second world war lend serious historic weight to this argument In addition the Soviet military point to the apparent encirclement of Russia by western allies from Canada and the United States over the North Pole to to CENTO now dissolved to SEATO now dissolved round to the United States bases in the Far East The Soviet elite is therefore conditioned both by fear and by privilege to support the status quo - a status in which they individually have a vested interest They would naturally support the selection of a 'Committee man' as leader and would be highly suspicious of an individualist particularly one with potential charisma Furthermore the very senior members of the Nomenklatura namely those in the Politburo have shown a tendency to choose leaders who are faceless committee men and virtually indistinguishable from themselves Why is it that the handful of top Politburo members who probably make the leadership decision have chosen as Party Secretary a gman so out of character with the leadership concept that must obviously receive the support of the Soviet Nomenklatura upon Iwhom the entire Soviet Union depends I believe it is because the Soviet leaders though cautious are essentially pragmatic and they see the Soviet Union facing a time of economic social and military crisis They realise that their backs are to the 'wall and that change is not only necessary but desirable if their View of the Soviet Union and the life style of the bulk of the jNomenklatura is to continue It is widely believed that the Soviet Union's economy is in a stagnant condition Both management and workers are desperately d 6tivated to produce effectively and profiteering is wide spread The Soviet military have shown a serious inability to translate research and development on advanced technologies into production and effective deployment This is one of their greatest concerns over President Reagan's proposed Strategic aDefence Initiative Furthermore the enormous proportion 6f Soviet productive capacity that has been devoted to military use has resulted in a serious and continuing shortfall in the production of consumer products The Soviet leaders must also be concious of the fact that they are fast falling behind in the essence of the revolution the race for the new generation of computers This race for computer technology is not only way beyond the wildest dreams of the third world but is increasing the difference in the so-called developed world between first and second rate technological powers It is apparent that the United States and Japan are successfully competing in this race and that the Soviet Union may join Europe in the 'second world' rendering its survival as a super power impossible This aSpect of computer technology and the impact of any acceptance of personal computers has major implications for a totalitarian state in which the control and censorship of information is a vital Li I ingredient to power Just as the power of the Roman Catholic Church in EurOpe was eroded by the advent of the printing press power of a totalitarian government such as exists in the Soviet Union could be severely eroded by the acceptance of personal computers which would enable large numbers of the population to transmit and receive information that by its very volume made it impracticable if not impossible to censor Not only are the Soviet leaders faced by this technological challenge from the relatively United States but they are faced by another new economic challenge from the potentially China on their south eastern border When I was in Hong Kong in October 1983 there was great pessimism with the majority feeling it would be impossible for Great Britain under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to conclude a treaty with Communist China that would be acceptable to the Hong Kong Chinese In the event this was achieved Now the Chinese appear not to be extending Communism into Hong Kong but on the contrary to be sucking capitalism into China Chairman Deng Xiaping appears to be conducting a revolution in China equally as significant as that which occured in Russia in 1917 He is encouraging limited private ownership decentralisation and capitalist profit incentives Such a change in party dogma must be an enormous challenge to any Communist leader However Chairman Deng Xiaping has three major advantages over the Soviets China is relatively closer to its Communist revolution and is therefore able more easily to rekindle a spirit of capitalist enterprise and even to welcome home some of its emigres who are skilled and still of working age Secondly the Chinaman is more hard working than the Russian Finally Chairman Deng Xiaping can expect less resistance from the Nomenklatura established by Malese-tung because most of them were either liquidated or neutralised in the cultural revolution The effects of Deng's reforms are already being felt A new 'responsibility system' has been introduced in the rural areas and private farming in plots of up to 150 acres has been introduced Rural income has increased by more than 250% since 1978 and China recorded the worlds highest economic growth rate in 1984 New slogans such as strive to be rich'I have replaced old favourites such as better to have socialist weeds than capitalist seedlings The Soviet Union has to face the direct economic challenge now posed by Communist China who already talks of having its own space shuttle mounted on Ariancrockets The Soviets also have to face the fact that the new Chinese capitalistic style economy may prove abundantly successful in the eyes of the third world Such relative success could threaten the crucial influence of the USSR in a strategic sense The Soviet leaders also have to face a society in which corruption laziness and drunkenness are reaching epidemic proportions At the same time there is a serious groundswell of public opinion demanding more consumer products in the shops A stagnant or shrinking real economy is placing even greater strains upon the Soviet Union in its hopes of maintaining the military balance and its status as a super power Reports emanating from Afghanistan Speak of very large Soviet casualties and defectors Whilst this can be partially discounted as exaggeration there can be little doubt that it must cause great concern to the Soviet leadership particularly with their large Islamic population Furthermore with the successful deployment by NATO of Cruise and Pershing missiles and the advent of President Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative the Soviets are faced with renewed demands for vast military Spending if they are to maintain the present military balance Not only is it unlikely that their economy can sustain such an increase in expenditure but they must also realise their weakness in computer technology and their relative inability to translate advanced computer based weapon systems from the research phase to effective deployment This area of computer technology is one of critical importance to modern weapon systems Here it is interesting to note the implications of wide ownership of personal computers The retention of power in a totalitarian state depends largely on the comprehensive censorship and control of information The wide ownership of personal computers in a totalitarian state will tend to weaken dramatically the power of the Government to control information This means that if the Soviets push forward with computer technology to the extent that they allow wide use of personal computers they will incur serious weaknesses in their present power system Faced with this situation of internal crisis I believe that the top Soviet leaders felt that change was vitally necessary in the Soviet Union if they were to remain a super power Not only did they have to choose a leader whom they trusted but one with the intellect both to see and to graSp the essential problems facing the Soviet Union and with the ability to solve them More importantly but involving the greatest risk I believe they had to choose a leader with the power to persuade the Soviet elite not only of the necessity but of the desirability of change _11_ if Born on 2nd March 1931 to a peasant family in the village of Priolnoye in the Stavropol region of the northern caucasus Hr Mikhail Sergevich Gorbachev was evacuated between 1946 and 1950 when he worked at a machine tractor station near the Caspian Sea This job must have given him deep experience of the Soviet economy at the 'grass roots' level He then went on to study law at Moscow State University and joined the Communist party in 1952 Following his graduation in 1955 he was made First Secretary of the Stavropol City Komsomol the Party youth organisation This is a most interesting date being two years after Stalin's death and one year prior to Kruschev s denunciation of Stalin in 1956 It is therefore difficult to see whether Mr Gorbachev's early political views were strongly Stalinist or more moderate At 31 he studied for an agriculture 'degree At 35 he assumed responsibility for increasing farm production in the Stavropol region an area that benefited from 'relatively fertile soil which enabled him to preside over high yielding harvests at a time when Soviet agriculture as a whole jwas suffering At 39 he was appointed First Secretary to the Stavropol regional committee In 1978 he was sent to Moscow where he was placed in charge of Soviet agriculture as Secretary of the Central Committee In this role he showed himself to be a 'political survivor' for although he presided over a series of disastrous harvests so bad that the government ceased printing Icrop statistics the failure was not attributed to him but to Jbad weather Whilst Mr Gorbachev was not in a position to implement fundamental changes at that time he was in a good position to see and obviously had the intellect to understand the processes that drove the agricultural 'machine' but which were not succeeding He must have seen the problems of collective agriculture He had a chance to see at first hand what needed to be done to restore efficiency to Soviet Agriculture In 1979 he was promoted to candidate membership of the Politburo and in October 1980 when he was still less than 50 he became a full member of the Politburo of which he was easily the youngest member Some people argue by pointing to his attempt to carry out agrarian reforms during the US grain embargo that he is somewhat of a 'liberal' by Soviet standards This is difficult to substantiate Essentially Mr Gorbachev is a product of the Communist party Obviously he knew his place and must have resisted any temptation to undermine his elders From past precedent and in keeping with many other political regimes promotion does not come by ability and loyalty alone Patronage and luck are also vital ingredients Hr Gorbachev's earliest and perhaps most important patrons were perhaps Fyodor Kulakof and Mikhail Suslov Like Mr Gorbachev both these men had held the post of Party _12_ Secretaryship in Stavropol Stavropol is a resort Mr Gorbachev was therefore required to entertain and was able to impress many senior Politburo members during their holiday visits to the area Mr Gorbachev followed Mr Kulakof directly both in Stavropol and subsequently in Moscow In 1978 Mr Kulakof died unexpectedly early This stroke of luck catapulted Mr Gorbachev forward Mr Suslov who evidently played a leading role in promoting Andropov as Soviet leader was apparently a most important patron for Mr Gorbachev For it was Mr Suslov who was assigned to ensure the continuance of the Marxist Leninist ideological purity of the Communist party Apparently as part of this job he recruited young ideological and loyal talent for the party which he started to mould in his own style When in Moscow Mr Gorbachev evidently became friendly with Marshal Ustinov Under the leadership of Yuri Andropov ex KGB Chief he was promoted from agriculture to a position of responsibility for the-oversight of the entire Soviet economy I believe that it is possible that Mr AndrOpov may have nominated Mr Gorbachev as his successor but that the pro-Gorbachev faction within the Politburo were not at the time of Andropov's death a strong enough influence within the Politburo to force through his wishes for succession It is possible that in an effort to buy time in order to consolidate further their position within the Politburo the pro-Gorbachev faction pushed for the selection of the dying Mr Chernenko whose fatal illness was first exposed to the world by Dr David Owen M P In the event the ailing Mr Chernenko increased his responsibility still further and before Mr Chernenko's death Mr Gorbachev was seen often in the company of Mr Gromyko from whom he was assumed to be receiving information and advice I believe that the pro-Gorbachev faction within the Politburo succeeded in having him nominated and even unofficially selected as Party Secretary even before Mr Chernenko's death It is pOSSible and indeed probable that at the time of Mr Gorbachev's visit to London in December 1984 he was in fact 'Managing Director' of the Soviet Union under the 'Chairmanship' of the 1dying Mr Chernenko In choosing a leader to divert the Soviet Union from impending crisis the t0p Soviet elite had to choose a man who was not only able but politically and ideologically loyal However at the same time he had to be an 'engine' for change because however unattractive it appeared change was probably seen as vitally necessary The new leader therefore had to be able to communicate and persuade the rest of the Nomenklatura of not only the necessity but also the desirability of change In choosing Mr Gorbachev I believe that the Soviet leaders took a calculated risk Mr Gorbachev was not only able energetic and loyal but was a force for change and also potentially charismatic which in the political infighting of the Communist Party system must have already been obvious He was also young 13 gwhich meant that if they made a mistake it would remain with them for a long time It is for this reason that I believe they withheld the other two key posts of Head of State and of Chairmanship of the five man Defence Council Following Mr Gorbachev's visit to London in December 1984 and the deteriorating health of Mr Chernenko Speculation increased that Mr Gorbachev might be considered for selection as the next Soviet leader I said at a number of presentations both in America and in England that I believed Mr Gorbachev had already been selected and was in fact the 'Managing Director' of the Soviet Union under the 'Chairmanship' of the ailing Chernenko I gained this conviction not only from my personal assessment of Mr Gorbachev which I have tried to explain above and the chronic need for some form of change in the Soviet Union's political machine but also from a number of indications that I felt occured during Mr and Mrs Gorbachev's pre Christmas visit to London It was strange that a visit of such an apparently high powered Russian team would be carried out under the auspices of a Parliamentary as opposed to a Government delegation The Soviets appeared to be unusually cautious as if to protect against the slightest risk of failure Secondly unlike most parliamentary delegations from the Communist block where the 'real' leader is nQrmally ranked as either second or third Mr Gorbachev was very definitely the leader of his delegation from the outset The way in which other members of his delegation treated him and reacted to his wishes gave me the impression that he was extremely important and in possession of very great power The authority with which he spoke and the confidence with which he answered unprepared and potentially embarrassing questions from the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and others gave me the distinct impression that here was a man who was no longer jockeying for power but already had the reins in his hands Finally when Marshal Ustinof died the announcement was not made as is customary in Moscow by Pravda or Tass but uniquely by Mr Gorbachev in Edinburgh This appeared to indicate that he was already in a position of t0p power and confirmed many of my earlier observations during his visit to London Following Mr Chernenko's death I was impressed by the somewhat unusual speed and smoothness of the succession which again has led me to believe that Mr Gorbachev had been pro-selected I was further reinforced in this view by the fact that the Geneva Arms talks were neither postponed for Chernenko's funeral not did they change in character Whilst the overall pattern of the italks has not changed much from previous talks in that both 'super powers have so far circled around each other with no -major serious new proposals I believe that the style of the Soviet negotiating team has continued to reflect a style which is 14_ of the Gorbachev ilk This style is vastly different to the Soviet approaches in the past where their negotiators brushed past newsmen with poker faces and without comment At Geneva Soviet negotiators not only posed for Western photographers but spoke and joked with the pressmen - a decidedly'new style and one with appeal in the West At Hr Chernenko's funeral Mr Gorbachev's speech was more than a eulogy of his old comrade It appeared to be a State of the Union Message in which he told the Soviet people that they must begin to get up and work and that there was no time to lose Indeed it was reported that one Communist worker was somewhat worried and asked whether the succession of Mr Gorbachev meant that workers would now have to work much harder In the past few months the Western news media has contained many stories of Mr Gorbachev and indeed his family including his daughter and grand-daughter Based upon what I heard of remarks he made concerning his family during his London visit I felt that it would not be long before his family were brought to the fore This has now begun to happen and represents a radical change from the excessively discreet attitude previously taken by Soviet leaders with regard to their families I believe that Mr Gorbachev's more open manner will lend his popular image a humanist side which could lprove to be of importance in the increasing struggle for the ihearts and minds of not only the Third World but also amongst the people of the industrialised democracies Since his succession it appears that Mr Gorbachev has not been slow to move his own proteges into positions of power and so start to consolidate a strong personal power base Furthermore he has not been shy indeed he has been unusually frank in his comments upon corruption drunkenness and laziness within the Soviet Union Furthermore the amount and type of coverage he has been given in the Western news media since his succession leads me to believe that the latent charisma I believe he has will not remain unobserved for long I strongly believe that Mr Gorbachev's charismatic leadership style will have a major influence both inside and outside the Soviet Union Within the Soviet Union he is likely to be the first leader to lsucceed in persuading rather than forcing Soviet workers to work They are therefore likely to work more effectively This should lhave a dramatic effect upon the Soviet economy and upon the ability of the USSR to sustain its role as a super power both in lterms of impressing and keeping the allegiance of large parts of jthe third world and also in maintaining its military balance or _15 Jshould I say superiority with the West In addition it will fall to Mr Gorbachev to persuade the bulk of the Soviet iNomenklatura in which the military is well represented not only 'of the necessity but also the benefit and indeed urgency of the need to accept at least some important economic changes From this we are likely to see increased flexibility not only in trade but in military and political negotiations It is unlikely to reflect any weakness in the Soviet position or indeed any change in their ultimate goals but it will represent increased opportunities for western traders and politicians to do business with the Soviet block For instance it is probable that major opportunities will exist in the fields of trade and project financing even including major financings in the Western capital markets Mr Gorbachev is likely to prove to be the first Soviet leader with the ability to use the Western media to talk over the heads of western negotiators or politicians directly to western grass roots This will be effectively a 'one way street because western leaders will not be given the same access to the Soviet media to talk in the reverse direction to grass roots in the Communist block By virtue of television in particular he is likely to provide external leadership and inspiration for such movements as the CND Anti-nuclear Movement and also to many surreptitious and anti-democratic forces which the western democracies not only harbour but with which they have to contend internally Furthermore Mr Gorbachev is likely to use his very considerable powers of personal persuasion directly upon western leaders He is likely to exploit even the smallest splits and differences of opinion that may occur within the western alliance over such issues as the SDI programme the transfer of high technology in the fields of trade and the political implications of harbouring American military hardwear or bases etc It is interesting when considering the East-West power struggle to compare the fundamental and weaknesses of the totalitarian states such as the Soviet Union and the democracies such as the United States The totalitarian state's strength is in its ability to sustain armed conflict when no direct threat to the home country exists Its greatest weakness is its inability to generate enormous economic wealth The great strength of a democracy such as the United States is its ability to generate enormous economic wealth Its weakness especially since Vietnam is its inability to conduct sustained military operations in defence of freedom and other democracies when there is no apparent threat to the mainland of the United States We should learn that lesson and always be conscious of lit It is always much better for us to use our economic power in preference to risking being placed in an inherently weak position where we have to use our short-term military power _16_ It is most unlikely that Soviet goals will change under Mr Gorbachev but Soviet style has and I believe will continue to change Out will go the brutish Russian Bear and in will come the new image of the Soviet Union responsible reasonable and reassuring In sighting the contrary view some people point to the recent shooting of US Army Major Nicholson by a Russian sentry Personally I believe that this incident was an error similar to the downing of KAL flight 007 in 1983 which caused great embarrassment to the Soviet hierarchy The Soviet's dirty work will increasingly be done by surrogate states such as North Vietnam Cuba East Germany etc Speaking figuratively I feel that whilst the hammer will be kept available it will be replaced by the sharpened sickle However the back drop will remain the same - red blood red Soviet red We in the West must never forget it Whilst his public posture may appear attractive and similar to that of the late President Kennedy there is no way that his active political posture will be seen or felt as liberal have never intimated that Mr Gorbachev's policies would be liberal or indeed anything like those of the late President Kennedy However when I consider the physical mental and _personal attributes of both Mr and Mrs Gorbachev I wonder what additional public attributes were possessed by President and Mrs Kennedy When I look at the impact Mr Gorbachev has already had in the West and the ability he continues to show in exploiting the western media I become increasingly convinced that my initial impression was correct For instance have we ever seen a Soviet leader conduct a 'walk about' within the Soviet Union How often have the photographs of the wife let alone the daughters or grand-daughters of Soviet leaders appeared in the Western media If and when Mr Gorbachev Speaks at the United Nations in the autumn of 1985 I feel that the full effect of what I am trying to communicate will become increasingly apparent Many people particularly in the United States will then see for themselves that Mr Gorbachev truly has western style charisma As time passes they will see that in addition to ability appeal and decisiveness he has a type of inner strength that will make him a formidable foe This may be good for the Communist block but it spells danger for the West For Mr Gorbachev has I believe great potential power to beguile and lull western leaders and grass roots opinion He has the ability to talk billions of dollars off the defence budgets of the Western allies Last month I had the great privilege of meeting President Reagan In the near future it is possible that both President Reagan and Mr Gorbachev will join in a super power summit meeting The vast majority of us will hope for some substantial lachievement to arise from such a meeting In reality a Serious -17- 17 achievement is unlikely and the main battle between the leaders -will be one of words to establish a personal leadership credibility in the hearts and minds of the world In anticipation of a possible summit in which personality will play possibly a critical role it is interesting to compare the two leaders In my Opinion both men are physically impressive Mr Gorbachev for the reasons given earlier President Reagan gave me the impression of being larger than I had expected from having seen him previously both on television and from seeing him at a distance such as when he spoke to the English Parliament He is also strikingly fit for his age particularly when one gogidiers that not long ago he was the subject of an assassins et Both men appear to have a sense of inner strength In my Opinion President Reagan's strength seems to be based like Margaret Thatcher's Upon a genuine conviction in the rightness of his cause Mr Gorbachev's strength appears to me to be based upon a great confidence in his own ability and past track record Both men are outstandingly good communicators However Mr Gorbachev is new and that in itself is newsworthy -Both men have great charm President Reagan's charm is quite iremarkable and appears to be perfectly genuine and come from the gheart Mr Gorbachev's charm on the other hand appears to come Jfrom the head and is very controlled and calculated This latter point may appear to some readers to be frivolous However it probably forms a very significant part of that elusive quality known as charisma and certainly can play a very crucial role in the image produced on world wide television in the battle for hearts and minds I believe that President Reagan should be alert during the televised portion of any summit meeting to the risk that Mr Gorbachev might lull him into a situation where both leaders appear to be charming and engaging in 'bonhomie' in front of the cameras In such an instance Mr Gorbachev's control and sharpness could prove devastating by apparently wrong footing the American President and so reducing his credibility I also feel that the location of any summit meeting is important The American press is usually more supportive of their President when he is abroad My advice to the President is that if he should agree to a summit then it should be held on neutral territory outside the United States In conclusion I believe that Mr Gorbachev does represent the potential equivalent of a Kennedy in the Kremlin I feel that despite the powerful strictures of the Communist Party system he could have a major impact upon Soviet politics Many will _18_ disagree with this statement upon which only history can be the true judge However if I am right we in the west have reason to alert ourselves Mr Gorbachev may remain in the Kremlin for a long time possibly greatly increasing his power He is likely to present the West with a set of new and more complex challenges which we must meet with increasing imagination unity and fortitude _ For instance the battle for the hearts and minds in the non-aligned world and also for grass roots opinion within the western democracies is likley to be stepped up in new and more subtle ways The choice and conduct of any super power summit is likely to be of crucial importance Politicians of western democracies are likely to face an increasingly SOphisticated political challenge from Mr Gorbachev both at home and abroad POST SCRIPT - 2nd July 1985 The announcement today of the election of Mr Andrei Gromyko to the Presidency of the Soviet Union is most interesting In my main article attached I had pointed to the fact that Mr Gorbachev had not been appointed either to the post of Soviet President or as Chairman of the powerful Defence Committee and that the nominations for these two positions would be of great importance in analysing Hr Gorbachev's initial success I think that Mr Gromyko will be widely accepted as an international statesman with long experience and knowledge of international affairs I believe that his appointment will lend stature to the Presidency of the Soviet Union and that he will continue to take an active intereSt in foreign affairs It should also be remembered that Mr Gromyko is believed to be a strong supporter of Mr Gorbachev as is his replacement as Foreign Minister Mr Eduard Shevardnadze When these appointments are taken together with yesterday's removal of Mr Gorbachev's main contender Hr Grigory Romanov I believe one can see further strengthening of Mr Gorbachev's power base at senior levels within the Soviet Union Personally I believe there is a subtle element to the strengthening of Mr Gorbachev's power in that he-has held rhimself back from the appointment to the figurehead position of EPresident and so whilst increasing his own power he appears to 'be modest thus reducing potential antagonism and jealousy Evidently the 57 year old Mr Eduard Shevardnadze is a man in the Gorbachev mold energetic and gregarious with a career pattern that is very similar to that of Mr Gorbachev His position as Georgian Communist Party leader illustrates his party loyalty I believe that the appointment of Mr Gromyko and Mr Shevardnadze will not only increase further Mr Gorbachev's personal power base but that it represents evidence of the rcontinuing thrust for a 'new style' of Soviet foreign policy in which the Soviet Union will appear to be increasingly responsible reasonable and reassuring whilst their strategic goals remain unchanged It is possible that Soviet foreign policy will appear to be more concentrated upon Soviet block affairs rather than on an aggressive world-wide strategy I feel that Mr Shevardnadze will represent this fresh and potentially beguiling style of Soviet policy whilst Mr Gromyko maintains the overall strategic goals from his position as President Finally I was very pleased to see that the United States Soviet summit meeting proposed for 19th 21st November 1985 will take place as I had hoped outside the United States in a neutral country i e Geneva I believe that this will be to the advantage of the United States President JOHN BROWNE DECLASSIHED BY 2-64 NARA mrem g -