mv 922014432HM103 THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM FRANK C CARCUCCI SUBJECT Mrs Thatcher's View of Gorbachev -- Weekend Reading Prime Minister Thatcher has developed a scmewhat paradoxical view of Gorbachev She has written you about it on her return from a highly successful Moscow visit see Tab A and has aired it in press interviews Given her intense interest in Soviet internal developments and their meaning for East-West relations she will probably address them during her visit here next week On one hand Mrs Thatcher sees Gorbachev as sincerely aiming to revitalize Soviet society through reforms that his efforts are politically courageous and that they deserve encouragement from the West Underlying this View is a conviction which you share that a truly more productive and prosperous USSR has to be a more liberal and decentralized system which could be a more congenial neighbor in world affairs On the other hand the Prime Minister sees Gorbachev as a very skillful and even dangerous challenger of the West He is in her eyes a convinced communist not a democrat of any stripe He is ignorant and naive about the West despite his more sophis- ticated demeanor and he needs to be told bluntly where our values and goals differ from his Very perceptively she also notes in Gorbachev a certain naivete about his own system and his plans for reform Because he is a convinced communist he cannot really see the ultimate source of his system's ills in statism collectivism and party dictatorship Nor can he invent a complete plan for reform he must move step by step by trial and error His politics may be bold even courageous but he has no choice Mrs Thatcher also notes that efforts at internal reform have so far not been accompanied by more than tactical reform in Soviet foreign policy A striking case in point The Soviet leaders who proclaim new thinking on foreign policy such as Aleksandr Yakovlev the new Politburo member and ideological mentor of Gorbachev are also the authors of vicious anti US disinforma- tion such as US government manufacture of AIDS Mrs Thatcher's positive views on Gorbachev are no cause for quarrel She asserts them in part for domestic reasons in part because she has been greatly impressed by Gorbachev personally But they raise two policy problems First by granting him the Declassify on OADR MA Inn n seem reputation of a true reformer she helps make Gorbachev the media darling eSpecially in Europe that she herself finds dangerous Gorbachev may be or may become a real reformer but he hasn't really earned this label fully He has not yet moved beyond words plans and general decrees except in cultural media liberalization which is reversible It would be well if Western publics heard more of the skepticism about his actual prospects for success that dominate the views of experienced Soviet watchers and for that matter most Soviet citizens Second the Prime Minister's admonition that we encourage Gorbachev in his reform effort begs the question How do we operationalize this without giving him dangerous gratuitious or at least premature concessions on security human rights or economic technology issues My answer would be as follows We give no concessions unless warranted by our own interests We safeguard the vitality of our own values and Throughout Russian history the values and of the West have been the primary source of any kind of reform in that country We make sure that our values are broadcast literally by radio and all other means into Soviet society so pressures for reform come from below We deny Moscow success in imposing control over other countries and challenge that control where it now exists so that Kremlin rulers cannot use imperialism as a means to security and place in the world Finally we can make clear that we applaud real reform in the USSR reform that is truly liberalizing democratizing and conducisve to the rule of law We do not oppose it because we fear such reform would make the USSR stronger Rather we believe true reform would make the USSR a better neighbor I doubt Prime Minister Thatcher would differ with any of this And it is in fact what we are trying to do Attachment Tab A Mrs Thatcher's letter Prepared by Fritz W Ermarth DECLASSEFIED WARE PRT ERHARTH CARLUCCI GREEN PEARSON POWELL SIT 30 03 SIT IMMEDIATE SE YEXXGRI 0123102 APR 37 CABINET OFFICE LONDON THE WHITE HOUSE VIA CABO CHANNELS MESSAGE FROM THE PRIME MINISTER To THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES DEAR RON I HAVE JUST GOT BACK FROM MY VISIT TO THE SOVIET UNION AND TO LET YOU KNOW STRAIGHTAWAY HOW IT WENT GEOFFREY HOWE GILL BE GIVING GEORGE A DETAILED ACCOUNT NEXT WEEK FOUND MR GORBACHEV IN VERY VIGOROUS AND ROBUST FORH ALTHOUGH IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO TELL IN THE SOVIET SYSTEM HE GAVE EVERY APPERANCE OF BEING FULLY IN CHARGE WITHOUT ANY NEED TO CONSULT COLLEAGUES HE SPOKE WITH THE UTHOST CONFIDENCE AND ASSURANCE WAS NOTICEABLE HOW DEFERRED To HIH DESPITE SOME OVER HIS REFORM AND RESTRUCTURING PLANS I WOULD THAT HE IS VERY FIRHLY IN THE SADDLE I WAS VERY STRUCK BY THE PROMINENT ROLE WHICH HRS GORBACHEV IN THE VISIT BOTH OF THEM WENT To GREAT To BE HOSTS WE ENDED WITH A VERY INFORMAL SUPPER PARTY ATTENDED INLY BY HR AND HRS AT WHICH WE TALKED VERY FREELY I ESULTS IN THE ECONOMY HE SPOKE OF 5-7 YEARS BEING NEEDED TALKS ABOUT HIS AIMS WITH ALMOST MESSIANIC FERVOUR AT OUR IKE HEALTH AND EDUCATION HE TALKS ABOUT THE NEED FOR INCENTIVES CLEARLY RECOGNISES WHAT A POOR STATE THE SOVIET ECONOMY IS IN UT SOME OF HIS IDEAS APPEAR SIMPLISTIC ONE CANNOT YET SEE TALKS WITH GORBACHEV LASTED SOME 12 HOURS HE HIMSELF DESCRIBED HEM AS HAVING BEEN SOMEWHAT TURBULENT BUT HAVING GREAT CLARITY HAT STRUCK HE MOST WAS THAT HOWEVER SOPHISTICATED GORBACHEV ND HIS SENIOR COLLEAGUES MAY BE BY COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS RD VALUES IF EVER I HAD ANY DOUBTS WHETHER GORBACHEV IS A TRUE ELIEVER IN THE COMMUNIST SYSTEM HY TALKS WITH HIM DISPELLED I TRIED TO SHOW HIM A LESS DISTORTED VIEW OF INTERNNTIONAL RALITIES SPELLING OUT WITH COMPLETE CANDOUR THE REASONS FOR IE WESTS APPREHENSIONS ABOUT SOVIET POLICIES AND INTENTIONS EFORM WE STILL AWAITED SIGNS OF CHANGE IN SOVIET EXTERNAL HE DID AT LEAST CLAIM THAT THE AIM OF EXTENDING DOMINATION THROUGHOUT THE WORLD WAS ONLY A SCIENTIFIC OF NO PRACTICAL RELEVANCE TO SOVIET POLICIES ARMS CONTROL I ENDURED A LONG LAMENT ABOUT HOW THE WEST RESPONDED TO SOVIET INITIATIVES BY CREATING NEW LINKAGES AND CONDITIONS BUT I BELIEVE THAT I WAS ABLE TO MOVE HIM TOWARDS ACCEPTANCE IN PRACTICE OF THE STEP BY STEP APPROACH WHICH WE AGREED AT CAMP DAVID LAST YEAR HE IS KEEN TO COMPLETE AN INF AGREEMENT AND ACCEPTS THAT IT MUST INCLUDE CONSTRAINTS ON SHORTER-RANGE SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH HE IS NOT PREPARED TO ACCEPT A WESTERN RIGHT TO MATCH SOVIET LEVELS WHICH I SAID WAS A KEY POINT HE ALSO OBJECTS TO THE PLANS TO DOWNGRADE PERSHING IIS PO PERSHING IS HE PROFESSED WILLINGNESS TO WITHDRAW THE AND FROM EUROPE AND DESTROY THEM IN FRONT OF THE TELEVISION CAMERAS HE ACCEPTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE IMMEDIATE FOLLOW-ON YEGOTIATIONS ON SHORT-RANGE WEAPONS BUT INSISTS THAT THESE SHOULD INCLUDE FORWARD-BASED SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE DUAL- ZAPABLE AIRCRAFT I REMINDED HIM THAT THE SOVIET UNION HAD FAR ORE AIRCRAFT IN THIS CATEGORY HIS AIM IS PATENTLY THE OF EUROPE I LEFT HIM IN NO DOUBT THAT I JOULD NEVER ACCEPT THIS THESE ARE POINTS WHICH YOUR NEGOTIATIONS WILL HAVE TO PURSUE IN GENEVA BUT HE SEEMS GENUINELY ANXIOUS TO HAVE AN AGREEMENT IHICH HE CAN PRESENT AS A CONCRETE ACHIEVEMENT FOR HIS NEW LPPROACH I WOULD THINK THAT THERE IS A PRETTY REASONABLE PROSPECT 1F GETTING SUCH AN AGREEMENT WHICH MEETS OUR REQUIREMENTS BY THE IND OF THIS YEAR ALSO SEEMS READY TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS AGREEMENT ON CHEMICAL TAPONS ALTHOUGH I REALISE THAT THIS MAY IN PART BE TACTICAL BECAUSE SOVIET FEARS THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL RESUME PRODUCTION SUCH WEAPONS BUT HE WAS VERY MUCH TOUGHER ON THE LINK BETWEEN TART AND SDI I PUT TO HIM MY IDEAS ON GREATER PREDICTABILITY DESCRIBED THEM AS AN INTERESTING PRACTICAL PROPOSAL BUT GAVE SIGN OF FLEXIBILITY ALTHOUGH HE SUBSCRIBES TO THE NEED FOR EARLY EGOTIATIONS TO REDUCE CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS HE TRIES TO DENY THAT HERE IS AN IMBALANCE IN THE SOVIET UNIONS FAVOUR THIS DOES NOT UGUR WELL FOR SERIOUS DISCUSSIONS DETECTED LITTLE SIGN OF NEW THINKING ON AFGHANISTAN HE AND HIS OLLEAGUES ARE CLEARLY MUCH EXERCISED ABOUT THE PROBLEM AND ARE DR POLITICAL RECONCILIATION OBJECTED STRONGLY TO MY RAISING HUMAN RIGHTS BUT NEVERTHELESS AVE SOME QUITE USEFUL ASSURANCES ABOUT THE TREATMENT OF INDIVIDUAL ASES MY FEELING IS THAT WE SHALL SEE SOME PROGRESS ALBEIT SLOW THIS FRONT THE VISIT WAS VERY WELL ON AT LEAST THREE DUNTS GORBACHEV NEEDS TO BE TOLD IN PLAIN UNVARNISHED TERMS WHAT THE ESTERN VIEWPOINT IS AND HE WAS IT WAS INTERESTING THAT HE DID NOT LLOW MY FRANRNESS TO AFFECT OUR PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP I WAS ALSO BLE TO GET OUR POINT OF VIEW ACROSS TO A MUCH WIDER AUDIENCE 0N JVIET TELEVISION I WAS INTERVIEWED FOR SOME 50 MINUTES AND WORD WAS TRANSMITTED EVEN THOUGH I MADE SOME VERY EXPLICIT ABOUTH THE SOVIET SYSTEM AND THEIR POLICIES WE HAVE AN INTEREST IN SUPPORTING HIS REFORM POLICIES EVEN IF IEIR RESULTS ARE MODEST AS SAKHAROV HAS SAID AN OPEN SOCIETY IS XEER FOR ITS NEIGHBOURS WE SHOULD PUSH GORBACHEV TO RECOGNISE TAT THE RESPONSE OF THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE WAS REMARKABLE ON MY WALKABOUTS I MOSCOW ZAGORSK AND TBILISI THERE IS CLEARLY A DEEP LONGING FOR WITH THE WEST WE SHOULD TAKE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLOIT LASNOST TO MAKE CURSELVES AND OUR SOCIETIES BETTER KNOWN TO THEM HOPE THAT YOU WILL HOLD THIS INFORMATION CLOSELY I LOOK FORWARD DISCUSSING THESE MATTERS MORE FULLY WITH YOU WHEN WE NEXT MEET IARH REGARDS TOURS MARGARET 0001 01 0F 01 SSH 0001 870401200210 356000165614529