DECLASSIFIED AuthorityNtJ'i 'ro -ll qt l TheBeor S 8 Thr01ilgh From INR Thomas L Hughes Subject Attitudes of Selected Countries on Accession to Sovtet Co-sponsored Draft Agreement on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Thls paper reviews current world interest in a posJdble non-proUferaUon treaty It assesses the receptivity to such a treaty of those countries whioh either possess nuclear weapons or haye the interest in acquirinl them or the capabUlty of coustructmg them lNTRODUCDON AND ABST R A CT The basic assumpUon of this paper Is that theUl and USSR have agreed on the text of a draft non proUferation treat y to which they would UJ1Je all other governments to accede Without going into textual detaU s the treaty in Us seneral terms would require both a promise by aU existing nuclear powers not to transfer any of their miUtary-nuclear know-now or weapons to any non-nuclear OOU11try and a pledge by the uon-D ltclear states not to acquire nuclear w$apODS either by transfer from a nuclear power or by domestic producUon No ass-umpUon is made about the procedures adopted by the TJS and USSR to mdttce the cooperation and participation of other countries in this endeavor Admittedly it is highly questionable and uaUke1y at present to assume US' Soviet co-sporlSOrship of a draft treaty In part tbls 15 because the US 1n81sts that the treaty terms should not outlaw new national nuclear capabiliUes but not joint SECUT No FOREIGN DISSEM CONTROLLBD DlSSEM GROUP 3 DEPARTMENT OF BTATB ONLY Downgraded at 12 year intervals not automatioally declassifiei DECLASSIFIED AuthorityN 'D -II' qSL 1U1 W a o A o p oup r4 ' NwJ r jtct oo _ III MUlU1atetd _ - lW c l l _ Mt f W d$ o __ wn mon I 1e __ oo of 'WIlat - t If aoa 'ue _J rO f c -t ' o __ t J' _Q maa v'''''t poal_ - 'f 'lM S n -'c- - It a of tfAL __ GNatDd C _Ja _ ' IWk8 t m ott9 l Ipoo Wea M '''''' '''''''''''' t'''t'' F m Com mmds padl 'WU1d be 1 v u II _ tIIii the VA _ - I Pads do aot JeD a11 _ iIldla oo 't Adfll mw It as doubtfuL I I D_E_C_L_A_SSIFIED AuthorityN lJ'i 7- ----- 1 - sEaurr DV or STAT ONLY NO rouIGN DISSEH cmr motJ Jm 1 DI8' tu 8uclear owers of Westen Europe tn e the tTnltAed Itooden _d lraDce '1'he pHMntly noa-euclear w stem Europe ed NOl th American countrie considered 1adepeo outly capabl t _ry1 1 deanooo of Ioia fluel ar inelude the ' deral __peUe of Get'IBADY hede1l Italy _d egad Switzerland baa 1 JHn portH to hue 'hOW'll interoo t 1ft tM po ibi lit ' ef 11111 o g 'lucIe r veepftS tt arcllue f rom abroad or through joint prolt'ams with otM1' countl'ie We heU tbat if tH US ad the USS agl utd to eo-spasor a Duelear noa dl mlutlon ubitlon t1'8at proposal of d draft text the attl tud f the J owatries aDd the decitd they would uke M to whether to ac I'Mu wMld o o o fOUOWfU p The Utl1ted Kt lId_ bas lema bee actively inteust d in the votta f further D 1Iclear proUferatt_ and has dtlced it GW1l draft treatitus ad Mel Tatt _ fo't use 1 aetotlati _ lOthb efta A 1MW Ih lttah aoo-proUfew ati_ kaftw_ ely reuntly put lOIVard to orne of the Western OYemmeats The UK eM M expected to support noa-pnUferatien propeaala that are not edly propqad18tic or ia __ way dlacrilft1al1tory 1ft favor of the eommullist cCNBtrle the Jrttlsh would rebAbly aot be f oooy ahout the eUtical l Ue tions of adAeNl ce such pot utal a1p tori a as lut Gel 1J M ' 'he UJ would hope to ill rticipate 1a 8fty initial tlS-tJSSJt dhcunloo8 11 prlAdpal f - tbeMts c nt thi lel not be o pree oaditt_ of lu support of th e trea ty 1an The Ui would Mud uxllJRtJm efforts to aftcourap the US to keep 1113 _d wald leo e rt It lf atroutt to dne u support elsewhere the IriU h will continue in t future to show ecmee m owe _ proposed NA'fO u_ ts tbat 1Jd sht threaten to malee achin ment of a aOft-prol ferat1ou agree at di fficult _1' r eh ff1e1als from de Gaulle Oft dowu h stated that FrMlo follow_ o11q of llcm-dlsse1ldnatlcm ut t'he 'pad oo 'net NU ooa tnat the r utt of a fts m-diooemt atlOl1 pol Q hy the n clea1' I wen will preveat PI'DUf at1_t 1Ihleh they cOIIet r lMvitable U s 1t this skepticism hMee haa aott41tett eat sorleal stad against _ _ 11I t108 ag'DflMats ooo tae ct atien hal arl en in the l'UlSt md _ SMR agreement wtlmld til fact serve at laut SOIle Fftnch il'ltcn ts A nonpreltferati qRecent wt'MllEl haYe to 'l'EH' opln France t o statue as a elf the lect ctosp y of aQcle r _en Frau would a180 soo be afit in Ge adher1iUlce due thi would 1 el'tluuul the 'reoourea 3181nat an ave tul C adape-adnt Genum nuclear e tUty whi'ch France fears _ 1' 1'ba 'HaC oal11 p1'oDab1 ' b mere receptive to _ atl1 Ple fl_ Power ftOlJd l sStmf lUlt1_ gl'l Ulmnt or dee l ratlcm P o o ldfu t cIe Gall has t1 OR ly implied hb I'culdiHSS to J01a iA ftelOtiati0ll8 tM1an such a ftelaraticm th_ tc o o wltD a uCB-acquiat tion feature since they ecmeldar i t iluappropriata aud fMtlooo fer i'lud llar -'1' to can upon h non-nuelear st at to 1D SEcUT D PUnmn 01' STATI ONLY NOFOBEIGN DI5SIM OOI1IOLLED DISSIM $0 i thay waw saffiaient gaittizal friaga banefiaa aecruiag t3 DECLASSIFIED Authority ML - 33m 2 th mmelvns fram Fiva Eager agraamea as sack z ay might as ra gnin tram t a annex fear aamlaar pawnxa in guttiag faxwaw giaa that ineluda ' 3 fa tha hawaanuzs T g a agg tiaxia _w u1d alga he imgaraant ta Ftanae has sat takan as seat kt aha wsya nera gigktean atiaa isatmammat Gaafazaaeg in Gannva baaxnaa it iavalvas aauatrias that in ranea s viaw art net anticla cg gurtieiyatas an tha Eraaeh waal far mxamgle yrahn iy gattiet nta in talks i vviving anly tha fiva auglaar if Ehina is aa afiaed t waala x aet Fraaca ta ha mama likely ta $133 an agraamaat that had hxaugh the s age af Eive f W r than ta a hmra ta nae praggntad by aka as an t a ask an a takamitwat laava it haxia Eat it eaannt he rniea an that Eranaa wwui a ga 3a agxaammnt yrm uea a 1s1y un at bilateral staasa it imula ing Rad china anmmi t ghamaeivas ta tax in ma a wa-waai neg axyect tau Eraneh takg any iaimiaaivma 1% tag nenwyrali azatien iial 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in-t%e aamgazt aa shaal be usa 13 haz aan ax h 8% de n t baliava thag rm my vii a gra ata ta eansi ar a naawvrali arw atian agraemaat haf re aha Gewmm ni sagtam ax Tharaa tax aha erm ns wuui praha ly gut a a fight ta shaxtwcitauit any- aan praii mratian agraemant mat with pragrmsa 6a aha garman quuatian ua i 335% an agra mant- ara reagha by atk rs yrwsaata as a iggt aa 11 j aa s gna h a larga uuw er af pawatt 'wax1 aaga iatly ia lii aanatriaa aa atmaa dagastig as aali wwnl grahably imyai Garmany ta aiga 33333 Authority SIFIED DECLAS a 1i agw ha g hava graagh an axmmn yr s at a 3 gtaim gag si argt a s awavmr if raue waxa gawazahiy gat1wata t wax a a ngaaifawati m $g mwax g this waui xmsuit fraa 1a Ska ggfiaagy at angh 3a am a g i i i g r lif 3 $35 ra hgx imam 3 3 agv a th fagm w agxwammat au tha by wa mk it ka r agaw a yamen gzagg 1% ch w xi Kg thig if an ngx gu$nt wwgm kaing yraya a at a an ma gr girtamstaag a @axamay mama g gm grga Z agwhw aw agyaa it gag it wa aa a r n data ga sag haga fax galitiaal hama its tmm antaata thaa xan a might tag it ka mmr Ea gai g aligmi g it if with awgmmay i agwaitiaa 9 at ahmaa tiaa fraa_t aamngxa1 nrwgia haa gag $$ra$mant this aig t a ilm ehg aw at $5 prwax x w iah thir pagt $ kxi g g aar 9% tag Ea aral a g hara Lap 31 a th t anm 11aatian 1a Eaiw i ul vma u anistar gahraa ar aga nr ag ar am at 3 th k what aw a iigng $9 515% $ 35 mamwuiaiti a agrawa ag g gait 9 pagkaga aai patting ha Ly t saga agu vmig k wai a nmraag I than a a iy in ag Eara @i a gia gx ta iga aili aak ta all ran mrl ranaa waal mmaxae at ralia gzaa ta a atmaty if faww tiaa a i 'wwgu aka grica aiaga afaa a5 an i gaa w i a g Ekwa #f aamiway'attaaggamats af tka tx'zyga aka t ti i gwa m haat ts agyaaigian ta tha agrawgwaag #axit niikmiy ta ana'x i gag traxay 3m Eaa it un t 5a twaniiad tbag t a axamygiaa a in t i gagat i 9f 3 atatt tx aayg tags yaiax Aaariaga ahag aaumat i aka am xhaa ii FEE agya tiagi% nt axy wwra kaiag gmaifasaa lg w ai gr ha y ha in i ax af aha iikaiy g a ymmaaifiagt au istanx ragh r than gt aka agawmrma xaa f ha 2a hxt t a a M%ma a a tag yz wiauw ha a 11na 1e as agwaa gwagasal a aamaagaisa iaa gramiaiga awl -grgsang aka Smu aa wixh a yaigiexiag Smg a xm ixi aaxly-aa mga atat a xaqaitms a a It at a a timm gut iag iagmi ta 3 ta am- pgiaa ta gfa uaa nu iaag wmapmma i it th ia is in ayaamab1 at gaatuwu aagvmr x rut gama i k yrw ngti g gaztly'h nxnsa it @agaa $5 aad aka aiam wili tawax amat at awwg amrg a amastie iiti il an akin insuu A awawgraii gxaziaa agragmgat tha wax max yaw af iarg w igawamnant gaakaga waai agn tha with a axe atly w aasiva aayaki igy wiawaw a t a at a t a aamg tag swa a wani na i h w azan a k tvay af a amamara tang wwai ta-gaattiaazg ta 3a Eastm az A Authority DECLASSIFIED 33833 - $3 wauld axpaat Swsdann a ta i ill aft aaeh dilemma by aiplav matie manauvering hafar tha But 1f a prepaanl raamha swa en in a 93m 11k that a partial nualear tesamban trnaty thut is as a sigasd treaty apan ta furthar signatariaa aa if many ethar aauntrisa n hnrud wa balieve that Evaden wauld avs tually'prabably ulna aign with about pGSIihiy invoki g treaty's exaspn alumna if theta aura no lang term prugrasa teuurd disarmnmant ammng tan five existing nualanr Writ xi yg agmu The situn ianAaf the 3wi is aew w tra $6 that at the Swadas in that nernaratann af haif astiannl ig nrity paliay arma nautrllity in patsamially jaapardiss by has acwu nea in the arl af nualaar uaapmns In bath eauntriea therafaru thaxa art gyaxsurus tram the mili ary in fgvar af aaquiring yuan waapona Theta arm a aauraa aartsin imparta irfaranaau 3w txerlan ns mat sq far an in inaugurated a resaareh and avelmpmaat progrnm ta put itaalf in a pasitian ta pradawa naelanr uaup na 1 it deai as it wants thaw Suitserlan anes net may lia in the-shadav a a naurby-threatans ing nuglaar armnd pawat the uisn Isak damattia uranium Ta extent that aaiss internat in nualaar has bean reyarza it hat aantered lurgaly about the passihility a buying wayan or pre n ing thag saintly with athers But althnug the $313 has aa far anaeaasrully reaiate dummatia pressures ta daulaxa itaulf ant af tha nualaar waggans ield beliefs that he Evian weuld adhara a a agreemnnt if yrassnte with issua for reasons and 3139 with eandi ians aimilar ta those noaad aheva fa awn sn E lzs Italy ha ahewn an interact in aaqniring indapsnaont antral at nualaar untpans The gevarnmant 13 in fmat cammitgad ta against analear pr 1ifaxution If'a nsmusaa draft nanvpralifuyntian treaty at aealaratian ware farthaaming Ha H ld axpe t tha I tliuns to snppart it and ta join in uhntavar agraemant eventna$ad Barring aama intarnatianml nyhaavnl HE Hual expaet 5a abunga in this farecaat l Ian as Italian laft ramaina-u ma a palitiaal fares and Italy eeanamia davwlapmnn unads ramain whiah manna far a 193 tin Canada strangly and antiynly aupparta naaupralifaratian aanaspt and unuld almoat aertainly partiaiputs in any ranoannhla graeman ta that and In ceaai ering tag rsa tien af awmanist hina tn U 3w int aawapansarad araft acawdilaaminntion ugraamwnt it 19 analyt aally aw eansider sabatunw tixe and praea ural quastia a sopsrn%ely Thia is haeanaa uuah uillingnaus a a$ ing may nal to sea $ ananpralifarutinn agraamnnt aama inta uarl wide apartr tia is grabably outwaigha by a atrong daterminatian ta inaura that Gammnniut Ghina s by a general enhaa amnnk a the 633 s atntua 53533 DECLASSHHED Authorirym - 5 Faking has gnaw it altar an nannsnans that it unnld ant ha unwraa tn glabnl alxninntinn-nt nnalaar anlivaay and wing this unald ianvn Ghana in the nnsitian at haing on at the narld a mightinnt gantry Hnumvnr girnn its Vanna at tan natnrn a inpnrinlinaknnd nf tns innvitnbility'nf armed hatunan and aartn 92333 king wank tn he ma a an will initiativna tn that nan its in aanrinad ta provanting any Inthnakn tn an 93 1nnge that agent rnanlt 293 nandi ly nugntivg gesturn agar tram its f tn natal a nunlanr arms Shinn nan sinus 196a given most tn anhisving a titan any by 11 enannrien ant tn an It has snylinitly ad sd that if this ware nan mania no naua tn annalnp n impart armnn nninx tins in with its in 19 3 fan 3n hn ing tn and a It an inn raenn and in grinninln that Faking 1 ant knatilo tn nhe annaapt nf nn ' h a nningidna with nun by neuunnd at in nliay gnala nhjantivo a annrne nan ta tn an anjn gaunt and the pennan inn a an Ewen swan an an any nf ttnining thit hy making iaih1n tn all Shinn n ran all nanntrinn _ nnlear napaninll in kumn nnl aiminiah aking i gain in'tnia tantra in wall as rainn ta ability ta nsa its gaunt as an at nniitinnl ptasnnra nan militnny thrust G mqu nt china in nnliknzy tn transfer angina an 34 at whinh it as far has nnzy a raw anyuny ta trian ly nr allied ' nranvnr it woni nartninly l kn tn inhibit similar trunnfars h anslanr pnwara er asna tn India and it unuln pmnbahly be ylanned t hxva variona nn nrtaka nnlruannyiag adgnn aiffinnlties annl ant vary strangly n inno e Feking n a hnrenee tn nnwagnnanran in it firnn glans mare rant nf n inint Annriann $nviet innananly baatils feelings tha Gnamnnist lendorn nan thny unnl interprat tan nave In an nffart an thnir tun nannisn tn nan annigrnto nial Tkny nunld enr annly nunn er vita nail far annire inlay tn b nkan np at nuns mart a auxin nanrsnenne ant unnur Enitad Ratians tannins Tan unula ant innk fannr an any null nighi ha wing far a n matting limittd ta an fin nanlaur pnunrs an thny nrn still Jnnaw tn nild an thair pnaitinn an grant Lac najnriky n nntinna Ebrnn nr whila ant ra anting annrighn thnrarnxt ny an 3 3 nan thgy wanld ha mast liksly ta nank tn gan n as inning Earn tn nan tsg saga nan nnsn nrnenhla nan an ass at anelnnr am wwlu In nn itinn in all n this thy unnln exnzt f wum ta manna that a-r were nn nly accepted as an indispensable participant in the consi eration of all major worl problems and they would insist that Nationalist China be excluded from participa- tion in the undertaking SECRET Authority I 'Thesa Chinese tactieg wanid posa a ilamma far tha traaty s Should they aaquiasaa in Paking s precedural demands and thus risk haviag the praject bag in tha ennfuxian and istractieua af 3 worl cenferenee 0r sheuld they grass ahead with their ra t in the hape that a masa 6f accessians by athar natiens all armund the glaba will evantually bring the CPR to agcade It shauld ha gated in the latter cannection that Peking cauld probably not be bluffa inte thus adhgring to the agreement Hewever this might ant seem tan impertant given China s awn disinalinatinn to isseminata nuclear weapons and the prabahle accessian at all tha n0n nuclear states exeept Merth Karaa arth Vietnam Albania an parhaps Saba to which Peking might even ceasi er transfarring nuclear arms in the max decade QTEER Israal and tha UAR Isr el g nuclaar is subatantially ahea 9f that cf the UAR but its main deficiency f r a waggons pragram remains the lack 0f 3 plutnnium segaratian glana Israal caul bail sash a plant in about two yaara aiter a acisian ta do 3a an could East a first nuclear device less than a year after aha plant's cemplatien t least another two years waald ha needad ta develay a weapan amicable far aireraft aelivary previde antsi e asaistance were mat availabla in she farm af technelagieal a viae Israel wnul pra ab1y need ahaut few years aitar tasting its first devise to pradue a nualear warhaad aamgatihle with aha missila The 8 3 hawevar waul hswa to acqaire almaa all tha tauhnieal knawmhaw ram anather cauntry ar else recaive the weapons themselvas fram abread The a aad I$raal each prahahly gals that it muat_aequire nualear weagons 1a the avent the athar does 56 Tha mativatian for unquiring nuclear weap ns is grabably stranger in Israei than in tha 9A3 simply because nalear arms can be saga as a gataatial equalisar 9 Arab manpawer aa resources 1% the futura and if these develsp nae a seriaus military threat t9 Isr e1 Eavertheless the Israelis knaw that their acquisitian ef nuelaar weapgns weul aranse strong isfavar in 3 5 and caul at best an spur an tha EAR ta match thaw and that such arms in Egyptian han s wanid areate a host cf serious fer Israel in thasa circumstancag avan i isrgel is airea y taying as it may wall be with a avelap ita awn nuclear weapens there is a gaad ahanca chat both Israel an the AE'wuu1 be willing ta a hgta ta 3 nanwproliferatian treaty if each were aertain that the ethat-wgra also a party ta the traaty Beth cauntrias ance tad the test ban treaty an thair viaws an the IAEA safa guar s auggest that they raeagniza their interest in prevanting proliferatian 9f nuclaax w agons in the wear East As in the a se ef aha taat ban treaty the 35R wauld emphasize tha nea for Eranee an Cnmmuniat hina to adhere ta tha agreement an might rafuse ta a hara itself unless thase Ewe eeuntries also signed the agreamaat fu DECLASSIFIED AuthorityNUD 112 7 r a India it has ean a @wliey 1% gs eik ta appase ska existgaca af nuclaar waagan$ t athimg g that praliferatian imam many an a canfliat with ammani t hi ri i z causa In ia SQ review its tra itie al stan %ut ss far the gavarnmeut has maintaima itg yasi ian agaiust Indian aequisitiaa 9f awnlaar arws eithar by indiganaus yra uetiau at by gracuramaat abraa A the $amm tima aw Baihi has sa as ranga 1 3 Faacafui researgh program as ea Ra eyan the uptian af iverti g waayeaa taseareh aa avela ma t if a yalitieal anisian to a an watalma kt Thara have alga Eean indiaatia s that Ia ia haa 3amawhat 1 as-enthusi atic abaut intarnatianal arms ca tsal agraem ments that wanid inhibit futura En ian fraa am af ehaic while laaving ammu ist hiaa anregtraina in avmlaping ita nuelaar arsanal Tkis attitude haw been r acta in a tandeney balk 0 ma a Indian ae asai n ta any aglf agying agraement anntiaggnt an kraa ar $ea13 internatienal aisarmamgnt agraamants at at least an satisfaetery $3 and agsa he ia ia in the event that any atha anelaax g wer wara ta launah an ataain atta k ea In ia Th3 ptayasa naavgraliferatiaa treaty waul gra ant In ia with agriaua amastic-peiitieal gra lams eh waal eggn upmn the way in whigh tha treaty w re intre uea 1 3 timing in xalatien ta India's 19$ ganaral aieetiena tha gmssibizity af bt i i g gaarantaas ram tha analaar pawgrs and aiailax factars T e racaytian whiah ha prepngal racaiva alsawhare in the warld wani $13a be imyaftaut rgaing fur Indian a atanma wau1 be t a anuntry's ta itianal ampamsul 3% a naadgtalifatatian agra m nt itg lea erahi in i armumant gannails its pra$inent zala in the Aftaw sian eammuaity an tha small Iikalih md that an 5 Indian n algar Gregg avan if creatga cauld caunterbaianae Shiaa s atrategic- geagraphie a vantagas evarthalass t asa axgam ats kaad anwa ays ta gpyaai mainly ta the min rity graug g sap istieate In iaag Henge if Cammuaist G iaa an Pakiatan ware an partima ta tag ttgaty thare is gaa nance that In ia waui rafuaa ta aign in tha af ag araacan in farm an sa stan fram the g aa 3333 It i5 avam gassibla that gag pr eass at aning up ha tha inane 3f fataxa nuggear paiigy which is iagligit in the eeisian a an accasaioa ta tha trg ty waui ttiggat a d m ti ahata th$t en a up with a eaisia ta mava ahea -with an nuclegr eapability If an ba eth r haa ki$tan aid a hera 9 tra ty and if Ig in racaivad satisfactaty assuranaea fram aha-38 nn aka ESSR against anglear attazk ram $eking tha gha cas ara it waui a herag It might ha haly ta this amaisima if tha ra t trusty ca taina an g apa glauge 3f aha myp i3 ary91 ad nta tha partial analaat East ban tr aty at awavar$ sve taka Eiag Int uwat may awaiting -than this at argumant inszda aha raliag angresg Fatty where prawbamk eiameats are any amnsiderghiy than they were at the tima aha tast'ba traaty wax eludeg SECRET DECLASSHHED AuthorityNU'D - l I 1 a a iwl an Diss 3agans Many af grablems w ich hes t In ia alga affliat Eakya in that theta is canearn abmut laagwtarm gmmunist intentiana avarthelass Japan is aven further thaa India item taking seriaus steps t6 evalap its awn nuclaat weapcns and it relies heavily an the American sammitmant to Japanaae 5ecurity with thase faetars in th as well as with the mass Japanase avarsiau to nu lear weaya a ating from Warl War II exgerienaa it is highly iikaly that Japan wanl agaa ily adhere ta a aa wpralifaratia traaty SEERETIEEFAETMEET a sxgxa a fo ma
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