DECLASSIFIED Lu Authority Mill resent DISSEM nite 5W9 US DEPARTMENT OF STATE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH 0k - 506 August 12 1966 To 1 The Secretary Through 8 8 From INB Thomas Lo Hughesltu Subject Will Communist China GiVe Nuclear Aid to Pakistan Several recent developments have raised the possibility that Pakistan and Communist China may have entered into some sort of an agreement for collaboration on nuclear matters There is still inaufficient evidence on which to base a confident judgement of the interrlated factors a did Pakistan seek nuclear assistance b if so did China agree to-provide itthe arms or peaceful uses area Our tentative judgement that as of now there is probably no agreement in existence is based upon a weighing of the following considerations Evidence and Indications i We have two reports from Pakistanis that an agreement for unspecified Chinese assistance in the nuclear field'was obtained during the recent visit JUly 27430 of Defense Adviser Ghulam Faruque and Science Advisor Abdus Salem to Peking the sources of both reports could have access to such information they are completely untested and the circumstances surrounding the collection of the reports raises questions as to their reliabilityo 2 Upon his return from Peking Faruque did Speak of collaboration with China in different fields as well as the prospect of foreign aid for the nuclear reactor planned for Roopur -East Pakistan The Pakistanis deny that FOREIGN DECLASSIFIED Authority MN i 5- 4_lr r FOREIGN DISSEM there was any connection between the two statements and the reports we have of Faruque s remarks lend credence to the denial 3 Allegations are circulating in India that the Chinese and Pakistanis are engaged in nuclear collusion The Indian Foreign Minister has doubted publicly that China would give nuclear weapons to Pakistan he did however claim to have information that there would be collaboration on the reactor to be built at Roopur East Pakistan I Pakistan initiated a major propaganda campaign decrying the Indian arms buildup and alleging that India is already committed to producing nuclear Weapons even before Faruque left for China This could be a smokescreen for a Pakistani plan to engage in nuclear cooperation with China anvattempt to blacken the Indian image without any basis of fact or it could reflect genuine Pakistani beliefs 5 Pakistani Foreign Minister Sharifuddin Pirzada has denied categorically on two occasions Ghugust 2 and 5 that there is any nuclear collaboration between Pakistan and China 6 In September 1965 Foreign Minister Ch en I told a press conference that as for the peaceful uses of atomic energy and the building of atomic reactors China has already been approached by several countries and is ready to offer them assistance It is believed that this statement referred primarily to Indonesia there has been no Chinese follow up on it in any country 7 'We have no supporting evidence of SinovPakistani nuclear collaboration although there is little reason to expect that we would have it at this time FOREIGN DISSEM DECLASSHHED Authorityuui ff 7 7 in FGREIGN Disses -3 Factors Affecting Pakistan's Position 1 Pakistani foreign policy is currently seeking to avoid unnecessarily antagonizing the US Cooperation on any nuclear matters between China and Pakistan would sorely try the already strained US patience collaboration on nuclear weapons would be totally unacceptable The Pakistanis undoubtedly realize this 2 There are few things that would be as certain to trigger an Indian decision to produce nuclear weapons as would a Sino-Pakistani arrangement for nuclear arms collaboration Evenxeollaboration on peaceful uses would disturb India greatly 3 If however Pakistan believes that India already has made a decision to produce nuclear weapons and the chances are good that the Pakistanis do believe this RaWalpindi has strong motivation to develop some sort of a countervailing nuclear capability u Pakistanw is far from having anything like the base that India possesses upon which to build a nuclear weapons program It would need extensive Chinese assistance if it hoped to catch up with India 5 Pakistan needs foreign assistance to develop its peaceful uses program but it still hopes to receive this assistance from countries other than China The cost of collaborating with China in peaceful uses would not be compensated by a significant political gain and Chinese capabilities in the field of power reactors are believed to be quite limited FOREIGN DISSEM DECLASSIFIED Authoritygguc 301$ 77 7mm sneer no FOREIGN DISSEM Factors hffecting China s Position l The Chinese are now with great difficulty and at great expense seeking to build a modest stockpile of nuclear weapons and during this proceSs can hardly afford to transfer Weapons to any other country Shortages of technical skills and highly enriched U4235 and the need to develop a plutonium capability should put considerable restraints on any form of nuclear assistance -- peaceful or military to any recipient 2 For reasons of security the Chinese would be loath to divulge any significant information on nuclear technology to a foreign power They would be reluctant to risk any leakage which would enable the US to assess Chinese progress in the nuclear field 3 Peking may be fundamentally reluctant to help any immediate neighbor move towards a nud_ear weapons capability since this could eventually become a source of danger to China h The likely Indian reaction to Sine-Pakistani nuclear collaboration -- a decision to produce nuclear weapons would be unwelcome to China 5 The implications of any nuclear collaboration for US Pakistani relations would however be welcome to China in that it would split the US and Pakistan still further and increase Pakistan's dependence on China 6 China could gain many benefits at little cost to itself by keeping the possibility of nuclear collaboration open without doing anything substantial to aid Pakistan FGREIGN DISSEM DECLASSHHED ti Authoritygui FOREIGN DISSEM Conclusions Did Pakistan Ask Probably no In weighing the factors we believe that it is very unlikely that Pakistan would have sought collaboration with China in the nuclear weapons field Pakistan would have been more likely to Seek collaboration in peaceful uses and we by no means rule this possibility out nevertheless there is no apparent streng motivation for Pakistan to seek Chinese peaceful uses assistance except to discomfort India and perhaps demonstrate that Pakistan is not friendless and can compete with India even in the nuclear field What Would China Have Replied Probably No Chinese agreement to cooperate in the weapons field is highly unlikely They might have been more willing to cooperate in a peace ful uses prOgram particularly in a manner that would maximize their political gains at the lowest material cost but even this is less than probable They would hardly have rejected a Pakistani request out of hand however and there may be continuing discussions on the matter that will result in our receiving more reports and allegations In Sum We remain unconvined by the evidence thus far obtained that there is any definite plan for Sine Pakistani cooperation of any type in the nuclear area but if there is it is most likely in the peacerl area FGBEIGN DISSEM Anaqu '66 INR INTELLIGENCE b r fz f f f nu on Office RNA Title Will Communist China Give Nuclear Aid to Pakistan Three cooies of this list 5 Internal distribution bv ch - n 52 ld accompany each IN forwarded for the Director's signature DE PARTMENTAL DISTRIBUTION acknowledging receipt of classified document Burea -Name Room Signature No No Office- Roma - s s 3 8 1 7512 W Cys No B s-o Watch Of cer 7516 a 653' i ma o c Wacgh Cff 7516 INH mm 7 535 IN -3685 2 2 MacArthur 7256 2 01 78i2 871 Owen 7261 Gordon 6258 is 6242 f AF Palmer 6236 5 s EUR Leddy 62 30 Frankel 6218 MW h Bundy 5206 on Crockett 7208 2 1 ng Kitchen 7313 $1800 6323 2 Meeker 6425 XR Foam 7 5930A 2 Emrgency Site - AID Boll 5942 7 t2 Solomon 6828 MN onnelley 6802 A PM Spain 7- 2 g 5351 r 7 5 POST DISTRIBUTION EXTRA - DEPARTMENTAL DISTRIBUTION - a NO- MisSion - Officer No Agency Officer I Address 1 f Situation Room USUN 'G01dberg 4w NSC- - White-House 9 USRO Tammi 1 USIA Marks 700 17501321 AVB HONG KONG 7 1 p0 Vaughn Rm 513 Miatico 7 - Rm BIA Carroll Dept of Defense - - Rm 71360 1 CIA 39 11113 CIA qursz Langley Va I NEW 13mm 1_ DOD McNaughton Number of Copies Needed Number of Copies Reproduced Last Copy No of_1Nocla aified Thomas Thornton A 1551 Analyst 9 Extension Herbert - 8 7 Office Director_ __ A image