DECLASSIFIED AuthorityMy 20 515 1 FOMIGN we We April 14 1967 US OF STATE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH To The Acting Secretary Through 8 8 Am_n From INK Allan Evans 4 i Subject Japanese Expert Considers Nuclear Defense In the heavy volume of Japanese comment stimulated by the draft Nuclear NonmProliferation Treaty two articles in the gapggi newspaper March 10 11 by Kiichi Saeki a leading defense expert are particularly noteworthy for their frank consideration of Japan's need for nuclearbdefense planning to cepe with Communist China's growing potential The articles bear a marked similarity to a draft position paper on nuclear policy prepared for Prime Minister Sate by Sacki and others for use in Diet discussions of the NPT This paper recommended that while Japan should favor an NPT it should also reserve the right to produce nuclear weapons in the future maintain close liaison with the United States on defense planning and continue research and development on peaceful uses of nuclear energy Both the position paper and Seeki's articles emphasize that Japanese nuclear policy must be flexible enough to protect Japan and yet not contribute to a nuclear arms race in Asia Supports Non-Discriminatory NTT Saeki who is Director of the Nomura General Research Institute an industry-hacked organization devoted to defense and security research and a former head of the Japanese Defense Academy is a recognized authority on security matters The first of his two articles rehearsed widely-held Japanese contentions that an NPT should not discriminate against non nuclear weapons powers either politically or in peaceful uses of GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic and duclassification This report was produced by the Bureau of intelligence and Research Aside from normal substantive exchange with other agencies at the working level it has not been coordinated elsewhere DECLASSHHED AuthorityM 51 20 35 1 FOREIGN DISSEM i 2 a nuclear energy should not interfere with collective security arrangements designed to thwart nuclear attacks or threats from Other countries and should be flexible enough to permit adjustment to future international developments But Advocates Continued Nuclear Planning Saeki then pointed out that the NPT could theoretically afford the opportunity for Communist China s nuclear potential to reach that of the United States and Soviet Union although he recognized that MRBM s or would he of little military use to Peking until it could deploy large numbers of effective ICBM's to counter- balance the US deterrent Saeki advocated that in the meantime Japan should 1 gradually strengthen nuclear defense countermeasures and study how Japan should contribute to a power balance against China 2 build up Japanese national power not merely'military power so as to deal with Peking on equal terms without provoking it 3 maintain the US-Japan Security Treaty and strengthen the US nucleariunhrella through closer contacts between Japanese and US leaders joint Ustapanese nuclear force planning and consideration of a JapanesewUS ABM system and early detection network A attempt to remove the Japanese taboo regarding nuclear devices 5 avoid developing nuclear weapons independently as this could invite Chinese retaliation but rather 6 develOp Japanese technical and industrial capabilities especially in the space and peaceful atomicvenergy fields to maintain Japan's prestige and to keep open the option to develOp nuclear See Japanese Reservations Toward March 9 1967 FOREIGN DISSEM FOREIGN DISSEM ILU Authoriwugibjc 615 FOREIGN DISSEM weapons should that become necessary In a subsequent article in another paper Saeki argued that the Defense Agency should take industry into its confidence and concentrate its and efforts on such defensive areas as non-nuclear missile-intercept systems Japanese Defense Thinking Well Advanced These published views indicate the sophistication of current Japanese military thinking in the government itself as well as among publicists all of which stands in contrast to the pervasive simplistic pacifist attitudes of a few years ago After studying the position paper on nuclear policy Prime Minister Sate reportedly requested further studies on how long it would take Japan to produce an atomic bomb following a decision to do so and how the reversion of Okinawa could be reconciled with present Japanese policy against the deployment of nuclear weapons on Japanese soil This is not to suggest that the government is about to go nuclear for demestic resistance is still strong and Sate apparently sincerely favors the principle of non discriminatory non-proliferation However the g0vernment and its security advisers are well aware of the need for careful defense planning that is subject to continued review close cosperation and coordination with the United States and a flexibie attitude toward nuclear defenses Even if the Japanese sign an NPT future decisions in this Jam r ru7 ur rill i 7 iwfield Will prObably depend largEly on how the Japanese believe they will be best 5E6E 2 ed against Chinese Communist nuclear capabilities FOREIGN DISSEM 2 c an assessmentsmam n