AT THE NATIONAL AHLHI UNCLASSIFIED GQNFIDENTIAL Research and Reference Service Declassified following August 20 1963 i I I I i ll Report #42 January 8 1957 THE CURRENT STATE OF SOVIET PRESTIGE IN WESTERN EURQPE 4 With Some Evaluations of Western Policy on Hungar 1 Fw u-m- p GQNFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED 04' Page 3 3 25 - up AI- IHL NATIONAL 5 3-3513 0 America's current prestige in Western Europe has been described in the preceding report The present paper concerns itself with the state of Soviet prestige following the epoch-making events in Hungary and developments in the Suez crisis The findings reported are based upon coordinated surveys in Great Britain France West Germany and Italy - the usual Barometer countries and for addin tional perspective Belgium and Austria Interviewing was carried out in the latter half of November and in early December or in the political caleniir at a time when Soviet actions in Hungary ad become plain for all to see Sampling for each country was conducted on the basis of probability principles to insure an accurate cross section of the population 21 years of age and over To permit more refined analyses when iesirable the sample size in the big four countries has been incriased With the present Barometer series and now embraces the order of 1200 cases Samples for minor countries remain unchanaed at the order of 800 cases is regular reasons of the Barometer series nave probaoly been adequately reminded results obtained from statistical samples are not of absolute precision but are subject to a reuse of chance fluctuation varyins with the site of sample Viewed conservatively percentages iscc upon 1200 cases can be thought of as accurate to plus or minus four per cent on 300 cases to plus or minus five per cent I With the enlargement of the bis four sample the time was deemedlpropitiOLs to initiate the use of the split ballot in Barometer surrcyo This is a valuable method of checking on the effects of differences in question formu lations by giving each of two versions to random halves of the sample and oh serving whether or not the returns signrficantly differ The Split ballot also makes it possible to increase the quest_on load'a survey can carry at the cosu of only a moderate loss in precision since findinys based upon half compass of 600 cases can be taken as accurate to plus or minus six per ec m - I Frequentlv throufhout this and othir Barometer reports readers that time trend comparisons and comparisons between countries are no terms of the percentaze favorable to the J 3 on a ivon issue butlin a net favorable figure favorable answers minus unfavorable answers net-index provides a more realistic oas s of comparison since it ta es ipoo account the extent to which favorach returns are offset by unfavorable res -olu The index is positive when favorable reactions predominate negativd'when unfavor- able reactions predominate 1 In the interest of speed in rep t na general population returns are alone I I presented in the present paper Caesars vs returns or will be available upon request and Lf 'orkloads permit will later be reported upon in Barometer formfew Austrian returns are miss'n from the present regort as they here not available in time for inclusion I ag -n un z-ml'u-u o l l-ll H IHL H l I age-12 39 12 22' 255% HIGHLIGHTS SOVIET PRESTIGE TUNBIES TO NEW LOWS REACTIONS ILLIEOST WITHOUT we'd-Bu T0 RECENT son FOJEIGPI POLICY UNIX ORDER OF ONE IN TEN SEE ANY F01 SOVIET USE IF FOJCE IN HUNGARY FEW ANY EASING SOVIET co marEOBT SEE STIRRIEG TROUBIE My 11111 LAST a i I SOME THAT PILL Ax CO 31 - 13 15 FAVE DONE THEY SHOULD HI THE HUHCuult II SIT 1 31 nun q-u - A SOVIET PRESTIGE TUIIBLES TO The latest west European public opinion Barometer reveals that without exception among the countries stuBied Soviet tire has tumbled to what may be unprecedented lows certainly to low points unrecorcg in Barometer surveys to date Figure I below records the drops in general esteem for Soviet Russia Figure II on the page ipllouing the drops in Soviet standing specifically on the score of peace efforts The losses in Soviet prestige it will be noted tend to be greatest in the countries formerly having the higher opinion of Soviet Russia The rosult in consequence is a closer agreement between West European countries in their opinion about USSR than has generally been the ease heretofore The largest drop in Soviet esteem has apparently occurred in Great Britain and a glance at the British trend curve over the past two years suggests that the British are more prone than other'hest European countries to vaeillation in their judgments about Soviet Russia 100% 50 FIGURE I NET 0F SOVIET RUSSIA IN WEST EUROPEAN ESTEEN 40 to Net equals per cent Gocd and Very good opinion of Soviet Russia minus Bad and Very'bad opinion 10 20 -30 he -50 180 -90 flOO - - - - w u - - - A HL I Nm 10 075 1002 90 FIGURE II NET STANDIHG 0F RUSUIA 0N PEACE EFFORTS 96 Is Soviet Russia doing all it shoulu do to prevent a new world war 80- 80 Net equals per sens Yes minus per cent 70 10 -20 -30- -ho- -53- 80- -90-100% 1 -100% Oct'Sh Apr'S Nov S 3 5 duh a sun-n -HL NA 1 mm REACTIONS ALHOST EXCEPTION UHFAYORHBLE T0 HECEHT SOVIET FOREIGR POLICY Hungary which have engendered adverse recent inorcssions of the USS handling of foreign affairs 1 of course looms up like the Rock of Gibraltar among the factors Reactions are almost without exception unfavorable in each of the countries studied to recent Soviet have you a favorable or unfavorable impression of what Soviet Russia has been doing in foreign affairs recently Very or only somewhat Great Nest Britain grant-3 Germ tall-Z Belgium Austri a No of cases 1210 1159 1209 853 1172 Very favor able 4 7 2% as 321 15 1% Somewhat favorable 3 2 3 3 Somewhat unfavorable 9 3 6 l9 7 very unfavorable opinion _l3_ l2 1L 23 100% my 10F 3 100 100% 1 10 - Net Bh 82 -63 #88 67 Fecent Unfavorable Inpressi en Have you a favorable or unfaveraale inpression of what has been doing in foreign affair recently I What in p FDl ular has given you this I ii of Soviet Handing of Fore gn Affairs Soviet Russia I iinpre sion 1 of Russi Lotions 1 I i i If Favorable Has anything given you an unfavorablelin re rion I Britain France Germany It 1v Lr a1um AL a Ii a ny- Hungary aggression massacres 50H ELL S3iRussaan imperialism enslavement i domination Roland Stirring up trouble in hidele east 1 i - - i Deceit and hypocrisy 3 a 4 I a a Threats again Lritain and France I danger Obstruction of German reunification - - i '1 Treatment cf war prisoners - Otncr 3 a 1 a No consents including 5 those who no opinion on original 6 question 1 all all M lib 132 lei 112% ll h Adds to more than 100 per cent because u-o 3 - m r-v 011 3- J J-l LL some respondents gave more than one answer lumu rum-u u 2 115 The very few favonable comments on recent Soviet actions were along the lines indicated below Rncent Favorable Impression of Soviet Handling of Foreign Affairs Have you a avorable or unfavorable impression of what SoViet Russia has been doing in f-reign affairs recently If Favorable Uhat in particular has given you this impression of Russia s r ctions If Unfavorable Has anything given you a favorable impression Great Britain France Germany Italy Belviuv Austria Freer communication cultural exchanges 35 s% e% 1% Loves toward peace disarmament 2 2 3 2 Had been allowzng more freedom to satellites 3 g- I They stopped the attack on Egypt 1 i 2 2 2 I Reaction in Hungary was under standable I Released German war prisoners - 2 Other answers 7 a 2 lb No comments including i those who expressed no opinion on original I question 5v -igin 100 101 1 101 1 10156 1 loo lei Adds to more than 100 per cent because some respondents gave more than one answer sex a 22123 L up A Hm lumu rm ma-a -- - ONLY ORDER OF ONE IN TEN AMI JUSTIFICWL ION UH1T1V1 FOR SOVIET 53 OF FORCE IN HUNGARY Are unfavorable impressions of Soviet actions in Hungany accompaniec by any considerable feeling of extenuating cir u3m3bances The answer appears to we no in the light of the indications below that only a ra1 ge of from 6 to lh Der cent in the countries surveved felt that Russia had any just 'fication for usinb force in Hungary a As you probably know Russia use m' itary force to put down the uprising in Hungary Do you think Russia dad some justificatiea for using force in Hungary or don't you thinL so Great West Britain Fr nes Germany T'aly Belgium Austria No of cases 1210 1159 1209 853 1172 Yes some 6% 13' 63 lh% 10% 10% No none opinion 13 8 19 6 ll l00% lUOf 10 100% Net 75 --E2 430 -5'3 -7h 63 FEW Ail Or SOVIET IE IIBTT JO As to the probable future cours-e s1 uquGE 1 atment of the satellites most with opinions jud b that the amount of ndependenCe will be less than now or about the same as now rather than an easing 1 o Soviet control 5 In the light 01' recent events do you thing Russia is likely to allow the Eastern European countries nor- independende in the next year or so less independence or aeout as muchlaslthey have new i Great 'West I Britain Fr nee Corn ny Italy Belgium h1stria More independence lb% 10% 135 11% - Less independence bh 31 32 30 b not Same asked No opinion 22 35 22 30 100% 100 100 1005 100 3 HOST SEE STIHRING UP TROULLE AS Alb IN HIDULE s11 Though Hungary preoccupied the attention of most on the open inouiry s to recent impressions of Soviet foreign polic h the specific closed question lollowing establishes quite clearly that the larse major1L1 of West Europeans in the countries sampled react negatively to Russia's actions in the niddle East i Do you think nusaia we peace the Middle East orIis Russia interested in stirrin trouble there 1 Great nest 3r it' in Il r'nuzs I arms- 213 It 111 1 Beleiur' in ia Wants peace 61 BE 95 10 Wants trouble 82 36 73 be No opinion 12 28 l 21 2b 100 10053 1005 100% 10056 Net 76 58 65 67 52 I This question was inadvertentlv omitt- 101 the Italian survey an in SOME PREDOMIHAMCE OF THAT VHIT SH 1 uu Ju l_u _n a - OULD IN THE SITULTION 1 That the Uestern countries have done soout wha they should in the Hungarian Situation is the predominant belief in elgium In Erance Italy opinion rather evenly divides on this issue Do you think'the Western counsri 5 ve done about what they should in the Hungarian situstloi or is there aqything else I T w Great West 3 h 1 Britain France rriry Itelgf Belgium Austria No of cases 1210 1127 1159 13059 853 1172 All they should 14976 33 52 33 3 50% 33 Something else opinion 25 20 38 l 23 10% 13 39 1005 100153 1005 10613-3 Net Favorable 23 21 1 17 1 I FEE POLICY HHUE FEM espouse timers norms i Comments from tho approaimately hfnu i s 1 in each country who felt that something more should have been done follow below 1 In general they seem to indicate a wish that western policies had been firmer with however 01 relatively on 11 proportions goins so far as to explicitly rocoqmend military action on the Jurt of indiridual countries or the U N I If Something else Uhat else should they haVc done i I 1 British Ccmmonts II A NOT ACTIOH THE UN 3 - I I western powers should take nave taken lit qcoon on dunrarv siside v Should have sent troops against Russia we could have helped more by sending a to en erce to Hungary i I I I tbstern powers should send should have sent arts to hung rv Should have supplied Hungary with arms' West should send arms to Hungarians or volunTce s like Russia sent to to Europe Western powers should break relations with Russia cease tradino n th Russi 1 Take economic action against Russia There should have been an economic boycott or Russia western Dover shoull have more risencial or economic aid to U1 ar 1 should have Jiven more economic aid here aid in the way of money Western pox-Jerri shoull live more help roj n ecs iccept are re we should ask more refugees here32E1ilieve no 1 we 01 asked a paltry few Other Western action vague anS'ers about Eastern action 10 Could have given Russia a hint to stop and then talked matters over They should have threatened the Russians using the language they used towards Britain and France The returns are listed serially by countries rather than in one consolidated table because on this question there was no opportunity to priorly establish a wholly comparable classification of answer types 6 - II 3 ANSHERS SPECIFYIEG ACTION EITHIN T33 LN UN should send have ghould have 3p forces 1 sent UK police force peeled to UN for police force for ungary should have moved in and taken contr 01 in Hungary g should have teken military action sq inrt u Ultimatum should have been sent from the and enforced if necessary The United Nations should have stepp in the s ue as they did in Korea 551 8 United Nations to Russia UN -hould sesdfhave sent observers should have sent observers but I suppose the were not allowed Other UN action vague answers about UK action should have stepped in I 0 opinion French Comments E239 firmness Despite the risk of war something was to Le done Be firm Step the invasion Action through UNO Send UN observers should send armed forces as in Egret Intervention with arsed forces or ma'eriil bend arms to the Hungarians Send paretroops Other answers - Economic blockade against Russia ask for free election in Hungary No opinion A They should have furnisin_ Hun a v wit of 'ms I'Their troops should have marched int ungary ZLey should hev matched force with force Tne West should immediately have sent to help the AU 0 They should have employed UN troops One should have dispatched a UN police force to Hungary regardless of the consequences 1 Some respondents gave more than one answer 7 - i 'u 3'1 5H- A mu IUNH m- - 1 - Lu' JII I-ARIJL l' 0th military measures 5 They should have taken up positions rt tie lustre Hungarian borders in order to safeguard them 13 POLITICAL ms IEASURLS 1' They should have threatennd the Russials and cubjcut them to pressure They should have uttered as massive shreats as the Russians did They should have severed diplomatic and trade relations with Russia They should have recalled their ambassadors immediately might have helped to boycott all trade with Russia and to sever all existing connections They should have prodded the UN into acting They should have insisted on the Uh sending observers to Hungary immediately i Other political and diplomatic measures In the foreign affairs sector they could have enertcd greater I influence on Russia asking Yugoslavia ind India to ct as mediators They should have negotiated I C MNTERIAL AID I They should have supplied larger quanin ies of foods drugs and necessities of life to the Hunparians They didn t send enough food and drugs to the Hungarians They should hay covnnr and sore fo cef lly They should have tried uO hold the Russians each at all events - i 1 I They should hav- riven str-nser support to tea fun-arians in every rc p- ct I The relief actions could have seen done on a larger scale Other general answers I They should have mobilised all forces a iinst the Russians They should have called strikes and snouid have censured and condemned th m I I E SPECIFIC COAHEETS They should not have attacked E ypt They should have left the Sues Canal a1 Olly after they Turnished the Russians with a pretest and jassif c ti n they proceed in the same manner in Hungary They should not have encouraged the hunrar ans only to let them down afterwards The freedom radio station beaming programs to Hungary should not have stirred up the people if help wasn't forthcoming later on No opinion 41- n n-p 1 Some respo lents gave more than one anwer 0- a 1 3 1 Nil I ll L1 LI ar IHL NAIIUNAL Ital an Comments Firmnr mor decided attitude a non mil ery but firmer intervention11 more entrgetic protest in intervention stop Hus is Prov nt Ru Isolate sia by discontinuing all uiglematic relations Impose on 'uLsia the immediate withlreral of her Iorces ois - Help Hunr I t i 8% Lend by 4 arms and food to the rehe s and to the whole of the Hungaria people Militarv 15 Use force ifmhussia did not give in They should have presented Action through UN The Hungarian issue should have been assembly Evention they should have gone to eir Russia with an ultimatum and if necessary they should have gone to the ultimate consequences 3 iven precedence at the U N I They should have mane themselves heasd more forcibly through the Persuace Russia to accept the preselze Send a U h police force as in Egyut Other answe They should have sided with Russia and the Hungarian rebellion No opinion Belgian Commen s Chase uss i out of Hungary by against Russia help them with 30-01UIs all countries action awninst Russf rvention Joint action of words more int Stronger protest dejsni in ate up to the teeth bang the table Give food more material aid for victlm Break off relation with Russia dipl m cultural relations N trooss ourht to have driv the was done in erce 3 5 hid partisans rch-ls with er 0 a armed orce armed interventio active seal of ussians arms U N must treat alike the Egyptian oucstion America could have halted ou ht to lied Economic measures sanctions Other answers ho opinion 0 9 r'I 751 awn- r 7 It A sf U H observers I I I helped her to put a stop to i 1 ii_zg i_ 2 more aid for the population i '40 relations trade relations i of Hungarybark UJ EJRJ 00 k I Ia RI JL I Please use this card to toll a Jrur Ioolings about various countries verv good opin-on good opinion fair opinion bad opinion OPINIOR UT In 11 Fri Jail Oct Jun Auw Doc Apr Nov 'Sh 65 55 55 '55 56 Number of cases 332 555 775 553 553 Very good opinion 1% 33 2S 1% 2% Good opinion Fair opinion Bad opinion Very bad Opinion opinion i z it 1653 160% $605 100% 156 Not de0 rable - 38 22 I I 851 900 800 800 805 I I 60M 351 i 1 Very good opinion Good opinion 6 10 10 10 i Fair opinion Bad opinion 26 21 23 23 an Very bad opinion wopinion _3_5 3h 2L _qu 1 7 loop 110 100 1005 103% loonia 1 o' _ygo Favor blo 32 os -20 18 -23 421 ls liio Moo iivora lo index 1o cu7 111 d on Ihe basis 0 total good minus tal sad opinion It provixo-o a oonvonio nt in r trends 1112- lil-co all indicm and Very goon opinions been 1 My bad bocouniyJ Fair opinion h I opi r53 on nitary i iguro for chart r 11i5 1 'rshl Coco - ofbuuhi as have Lad and vo Lon opl 4 nusnly boLJonn ood and bad J hroa n the L50 of solit ballot prcrimunts oro now boing con with a viou tuward inpro o iniun 113 by TCg ln tho- ibly uous hair opinion 'i L tLo more procino H'oiihei QUOCA 031 8 1 1 15 in I m-u I 'mifliit ll _m nil 15 3 Very opinion Good opinion hair Opinion Bad opinion Vary bad oplnion No opinion Net Favorable $vry good opinion Good opinion Fair Opinion Bad opinion 'Vory bad opinion No opinion Net Favoriglg Very good opinion Good opinion Fair opinion Bio opinion Ver bad opinion Lo opinion Not Favoro-l Iltl liUIJLth THL NAIIUNAL AHLHIVLJ sif v RUbolA In Gnr 1n7 Oct rub Jun 91 LE 55 333 L11 1 f 15165% 331 1553 308166% 1 1 166% In o_giun Au Nov Ito 1gp EH105$ 166$ -31 4 1114 $ 1663 L02155% 1 Jo Apr '55 3 _11 WEE 100% 10 63 61 i 803 911_1_3 L122- 100% 100 i -29 30 i In Austria Jun nug 15 5 3332 792165 155% 19 33 01 56 25 53 1005 605 7 r-J U1 11 100$ 60 hov I go 21 1061 59 NLI HUUI Is Soviet Russia doing all it Ovid do 0 prevent a new world war Great Britain No of cases YesJ Russia is No Russia is not No opinion Net rqvorable minus is not France Yes Russia is No opinion Net vorable West Germany Ies dussia is No Jussla is not No oPinion Net vavornble Italy Yes nussLa is No aussia is not No opinion Net Payorable Yes hussia is No Jussih is not No opinion Net iavorable Oct 2 0 Jun Aug 'Sh '55 '55 T866 T366 13% l m 222 35 46 513 45 3 3 39 33 32 1 1 qu 1 -35 27 23 2 851 90C boo 000100 ioos 100s 130A 21 _22 -11 -6 820 865 13$ 9 #18-S2 50 36 30 too sin Use 002 160p 100s -At Jlul '55 56 55 5506 733 E92 i3 Till 10002rd qu LOS is 33 513 11% 66 21 100 003 2 30 36 L 8 Austria ng E752 eu 21 166 - -28 '56 h5 23 Nos Ig 665 7s __li loop