t - NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 3C 3306 22E NATICNAL SECURITY PLANNING GROUP KESTIXG June 25 2 00-3 00 P M Situatlcn Room SUBJECT Central PARTICIPANTS The Tn Prnsiden The Vice Office Admlral aanlel J aurphy Stlte Secretary Georg P Shultz Mr chhael Armncost Mr A notloy De ance ecrctary Caspar w Dr Fred Ikle 0H8 Dr Altcn Kael CIA William J Casey Mr Duane Clarridge USUN XEBEssado Joana J Kirkpatrick JCS General John H Veasey Jr Admiral Axthu S Mctaau white Hausa sneeze c acrazlane Admiral Jean M Nsc Ccastantine c Henge Minutes Ex McFarlane the cf hls meeting is e focus on the politicaI eccnoaic and military in Centzal Amarlca SECRET DE SIFY ON OADR SE xcrf 61 T 80' 2 r prr to offer a status report and to discuss next steps needed to keep our friends together while continuing to make progress toward our overall political goals There is good news and bad new from Central America as is always the case The good news includes the feet that Congress will provide in additional military assistance for El Salvadore-SBOM of which has already been spent At the same time we continue to need the additional in aid for El Salvador which we have requested in the FY 54 supplemental and we need to continue pressing for that 5 The bad news includes the fact that there seems to be no prospect that the Democratic leadership will proVide for any vote on the Nicaraguan program During the last vote in the House of Representatives we lost by 64 votes and that means that we need to change 32 votes in order to continue funding the anti-Sandinista program On June l Secretary of State Shultz and hr Ortega of the Nicaraguan Directorate met in Nicaragua The key question we need to consider now is what we believe about the prospects for further talks with Nicaragua do we believe that Nicaragua wants to come to a reasonable agreement Based on the answer to that questiono-how do we keep the friendly Central American governments together and focused on a multilateral comprehensive and verifiable treaty What can we do to reinforce the confidence of the Central American and regional countries in the US in the light of questions about continuing congressional support for the anti 5andinista program For example is there a need for any additional military resources for the collection of intelligence or military exercises to disrupt or deter the communist guerrilla offensive which we expect will be coming in El Salvador in late summer or what can we do to increase public understanding of the situation in Central America and of our Central American policy not only here in the United States but also in Western Europe and Latin America and among other western countries U We will begin with Secretary Shultz addressing the diplomatic situation followed by Bill Casey reporting on the freedom fighters in Nicaragua and Cap weinherger and General Vessey commenting on the nilitary situation 8 Mr President we would not have gotten the as o7 ferahing missiles in Europe if people had not seen that we had a credible vigorous negotiation going on Similarly you have moved to get yourself in a position with the case where we have made credible proposals and they have walked out This is useful because it shows who is at fault for the lack of Similarly in Central America our basic thrust has to be to generate positive elements of the political and economic situation and to proVide security help so that our errorts to disrupt the Nicaraguan export of subversion are as strong as we can get An essential ingredient in that strategy is that we can say it Nicaragua is halfway reasonable there could be a regional negotiated solution one which we support as much as we can It is essential to have something like that going on or else our support on the hill goes down So it is not a question of making a prediction about the outcome of negotiations rather it is important that we don't get sucked into something had as i is essential to our strategy to key everything we do to support for the Contadora regional processes as I shall call it S So on our efforts to engage Nicaragua there is one piece of very bad news We don t have the votes in the House of Representa- tives to obtain additional funds for the anti-Sandinistas Th Congress will now be out for three weeks and therefore anything credible going on the negotiating track can only help us There is a sense or unease in Honduras about what is taking place for a great many reasons The situation in El Salvador is a great big plus assuming we get additional US military assistance and taking what we got after the nun's case was solved we have a good track at the omnibus supplemental and it not we can use 2l d again Nicaragua is in trouble though not badly so especially 3 the anti-Sandinista funds run out There is some shirt in attitude or the Hexicans For example Sepulveda went to El Salvador and there is some Mexican impatience with Nicaragua about their posture on the negotiations This morning I spent some time with the US Ambassador to Honduras There are things we can do to ease the concern or the Government or Honduras They are very concerned about the US bilateral conversations with Nicaragua but these concerns can be assuaged Their main problems are internal- economic and the military change President Suazo is upset The most serious problem is what honduras can do with the Nicaraguan freedom fighters who return Fresident Suazo is also bothered by the sharp decline in the as military presence 5 In the meantime we have a negotiation going on both in the Conradore process and in this little errort with Nicaragua Our approach is 1 to consult closely with our friends 2 keep our triende posted so they see we are trying to help By and large they see this as helpful as contributing to the Contadora process and us as supporting them s Today is the tirst us-Nicaragua meeting since June 1 We said we would not meet with the Mexicans present Nicaragua said we have to keep the Mexicans interned The United States said we will intern all our friends in the Contadora countries The tirst meeting was at A h hexioan time or noon our time Ambassador Shlaudeman was instructed in the first session only SECRET o i I 1 to talk about modalities an procedure -not to taole anything But to continue these negotiations we must have content We think the beat way for this to go on i to have a home-tc ncme approach meaning alternating between the US and Nicaragua We cannot say much about frequency Nicaragua has lived up to its agreement about this negotiation There was no press notification betore this meeting 5 Cur negotiating strategy is to table an Aide Memoire saying here is our approach which we have written out and which is whet we told the Core Four we would do so they would not be surprised we have not given the Core Pour the Aide Memoire which changed recently as a result or discussions which Fred Ikle and Admiral Moreau We have to follow the Aide Memoire with an approach to negotiations which I discussed with almost everyone before June 1 except for Jeane Kirkpatrick who was out or the country Instead of a vertical approach to the negotiations taking some or the our topics on one at a time we auggesr taking some or etch or the four in a horizontal approach Ambassador Shlaudeman has a tableau of four steps with blank where any numbers are involved From the etandpoint of negotiations we need to get the word to go ahead or we need to decide on some other approach Then we will euhvert the whole thing and it will have to abort I have to get word to hr nefarlane Now we'll receive an overview o the anti- Sandinieta program from Bill Casey S hr Care The FUN in the North remains strong ARDE in the out is on the run under pressure In the North we see continued support for the $08 For example ll7rpersons walked out o Nicaragua and Honduras to join up just last week and in the central part or Nicaragua 900 people are waiting for weapons in order to join up with the P03 At the moment CIA has 0 000 left about halt at this is being kept in order to hold fus personnel in Honduras and Costa Rica until the and o Sep ember l98 so that we can help immediately in the event that continuing resolution makes more money available Our warehouses have area and ammunition which can hold till August Many of the antioSandiaiatee will stay in place within the country in order to teed theaeelvee and they would need about $3 million to get by tor the next three months We aetitote that about halt will retreat into Honduras and Coeta Rice in some disarray and we have to provide humanitarian assistance to help these individuals and those they bring out with then when they come into Hondures and Costa SECRET SECRET I 14 1w M mand Ill nun roomy ocuwnwoa no noun nu wu ucnnonvuoa no woo nook manned nnoa nnwnu up moon nu munavua annoanunoo nukna moo Cancun no who annunm an noanpuonwnn muwcuaon mosacnmu moo wEnoz nha_naaH am so nonwnw no ocanuuoun to nub mnocwum nun-nu ovunuaoo no yawn nun muz can so Sousa now noun mnua nocbanan anon uo nan unapon unabonu on no coonunazn noaawnnoou nononavuo sun to noon no no noun so soon a manuawoa no ucnsonHuo can nonawnnwaa nu moz no ounuwn nswnu acmnOnn mobstauwo an moz xnucnm no an unnuna on ozown can no now no man ucvnonn muna nuwna cannon Hann- u nuw050wonwn k nan noawoa an man to unocwa unocwoo moaacnmn nan noaup wunu swan moan nwuo on scahaunonuun nawwnn mo anew nun unawan n30 no shoe mononuuaa amazon brow van now no yawn m usurp onmon not canon not on n39 awwununw coupon to no acorn mnonununwonu non noonuon auwwnunw cum-snwco up my mquunon cawwo an nus ammo away nu nauubu on ucwwawua wmunuown mono an to not Dang anon uno am noonuoan manna mucous hnu Hm no apownuacm an nopwna_ acorn anon on non zwnunnoanu ouaon onnoop noun can no aoaonwpno wu wanaanna no manna nun cannon manna on cam awn sunk to nuxo nonwoo nonwomn anounumau m anon wan can aocunn Bonn nanoxww no ooamwono nun on no not woo Hanan rundown Ha manor muonou mH nocwa cannon zwnanuncuo no mocwmn ounno Mono ado onuan Habit a an 0 0 onwon sun onnu who nun manna cacao bow nocwa or on wanna orphan moo uwuo mocuon nunao orphan mannhon to on run an nwwonu nnuwuma wn nun moqwon Upon su o nonnhnon no zwoannmco mv awn oomonnaoan on coupon ocuunnao unnono now can on so manna communaonn unnonpunwaa unannouvo tuna no nan nonunonnoau anon cocwu and noon wanna on an noun an nonnuup avg nounnan um nub puma anon unomonbw man no yuan Susanna Pu non nononwunwnm moownnon run so Cowman maroon uuocwo no muonmmuhna mo non n nn no amnouu a ova mononuhwwunwo zonnu sunken no no nhxuna ocon nub panonwonuoun no aoa n napaw pa nonnpw no owmannw apounuacu aw so mono no yoga anonwna Wu savor cm man anon awnunumno aoonwaau nnoa ono no no canon mhnuonq cyan to unoapa do nouna Hm wopmwna no nouanw raonunua I mmnm - 1 a take the lead in the Contadora ass in order to get a good Contadora treaty This is the choice between no negotiations and the separate cilatoral negotiations proposed y State we favor the third choice or helping the Contadora countries who are our friends obtain a comprehensive and verifiable Contadora treaty 5 i n ilitary issues we have reduced our troop levels trying to to about 700 But let on emphasize this is a salt-impose limit and we can increase that number now I we went along with the first stop of tho State negotiating proposal to Nicaragua as originally planned we would have given up all of our flexibility We would have given up the ability or the Defense Department to increase its physical presence in Central America above a cartain low limit that was specified on th anti Sandinista issue I think us need to take the offensive against the Democrats in Congress No need to hold than accountable for not providing the resources needed to defend democracy we need to hold the Democrats accountable we should ask the Democrats whether they want a second Cuba They see Ortega going atter the visit or Secretary Shultr to Havana and then to Moscow Do the American people want this We should emphasize this to the Democrats in Congress rather than taking the bilateral negotiating tack where we would be giving Nicaragua economic aid helping them economically Whatever else we need to assure that we can keep a US troop presence in Honduras of whatever size is needed to help darend our General Vosse I'm going to go over sons o the material that Bill Easey covered in a general overview In Nicaragua we set an economy in bad shape We see the government losing popular support and we see the airfields being readied tor jet fighters Admiral Moreau would you please bring the photos to the President The Contras have achieved considerable succas in Nicaragua in disrupting Nicaraguan military operations and preparations In Honduras the economy is in dirticult condition but tho civilian government is functioning well although there is a great concern in honduras about the Contra returning into Sonduras The regional training cantor has been functioning voll m we have trained about 3 000 Salvadoran troops this year 3 3063139 in overview at what we are doing to provide support I want to mention the following things we are doing nw 2 two spring deployment exercises aro finished and no additional exercises arc scheduled between now and Deceaber The naval presence will remain continuous at about the current level Congress approved the construction or two tonporary nilitary bases and we are doing a number of things in th eras of intelligence collection such as the following SECRET ALUU orww L n 0 53 current policy we are following is producing results We need to help Honduras They have economic and military problems and they probably need an emergency package or assistance In El Salvador we need the additional million in military aseietance end we need to continue reassuring our friends in Central America through irn commitmente Our policy is working now but i we don't watch it we'll snatch defeat from the aws o victory S President Rea an It all nenge on support for the anti- - gandinistee How can we get that support in the Congress we have to be more activeg With respect to your differences on negotiating our participation is important from that standpoint to get support from Secretary Weinberger I the core tour Central American countries agree on our negotiating propoeel that's fine but they have not even seen the original Aide Hemoire that was to be given to the Nicaraguan today nor have they seen the new one that was just completed this past Saturday afternoon Besides we can t end up with a negotiation which gets us into a separate bilateral deal with Secreter snultz I think Cap'e characterization or what we are trying to do is inaccurate and unfair As of into Saturday arternoon the Aide Hemoire was okay with the Joint Chiere of Staff and the Oftice of the Secretary or Secretar Weinber er None or our riende in Central America Save seen EEK-new XIde Hemoire which as you point out was revised on seturday and finished late Saturday arternoon 5 President Reagan I we are just talking about negotietions with i cations is to Earetetcned to imagine tnAt a communiSt 1 government like that would make eny reaeonanle deal with usget Congress to support the anti-Sandinietae then I that can be Amp Kirkpatrick Mr President at the United Nations we negotiate on everything with all the countriee in the world and I believe in diplomacy and in negotiations But it is very SECRET 1 - enn- 'u - A HQ Ubwl - wt Sake-tn- important to avoid getting into the situation of assuming responsibility for something which cannot be achieved As you know we often find it useful to support other countries which are trying to achieve political settlements when we ourselves remain in the background For example in Arghenisten in the Persian Gui where we are helping those countries trying to settle the war there without ourselves mowing into the forefront and in Lebanon where we found that we were not able to bring about negotiated solution and where we are now working in the' background to fatilitate solution by working with our friends and through our friends In my judgment the analogy of Central America is much closer to the Persian Gul situation then it is to the issue of the deployment o2 Pershing missiles in Europe Let us remember that the Contadora process began in early 1983 as an initiative of the Latin American countries and that when you sent me to the region in February 1983 they told me that they wanted to try to negotiate a political settlement among themselves The reason the United States got out or the process directly was because the other coun rias wanted us out They wanted to establish their own negotiating process and they have made some progress Venezuela Colombia end Panama have become more responsible as a result of trying to achieve a negotiated settlement They are now much less critical of us than they were Now they realize how difficult Niceregua is and now they have coon to the hard pert of the negotiation S As we now undertake separate bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua rather than continuing to support the 21 Contedora objectives these Latin American countries may well take this as an excuse to stand aside They will get off the hook and they will put us on the spot I we give Mexico any special role it will further undermine the Contadors process and in fact the Contadora process would then probebly fall apart because any Us prererence shown toward hexico which hes been supporting the Nicaraguans and communist guerrillas will undermine pressure for a genuine negotiated solution we would then be under lots of pressure tron Congress i the United States were negotiating bilaterally with Ricaragus to make additional concessions These bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua will scare our friends in the region and they will neither help us in the region nor in the US Congress In fact the coincidence or our this bileterel negotiating etfort at the same time as the Congress tails to support funding to the Contras is enough to totally unravel our entire position in the I we don't find the money to support tho Centres it will be perceived in the region and the world as our having abandoned then and this will lend to an increase in re ugees in the region and it will permit Nicaragua to in iltrete thousands or Nicaraguan trained forces into El Salvador And this will he SECRET m I an infiltration we could not stop the Democrats don't want vote because they don t want to accept the responsilility for their votes against this program I believe we need to make their responsibility in the Congress clear to the as public we must require the Democrats to stand up and be counted 2 you showed your commitment and the Administration's commitment with more sotivity it would be a positive factor in Congress 5 we can't get the money for the anti $andinistas then we should rare the maximum errort to find the money elsewhere even i we couldn't find money elsewhero immediately we should consider using the antieSandinistes elsewhere for the time being for example in El Salvador to help derend against the coming guerrilla ottensive 5 Secrets Shultz Several points 1 everyone agrees with the Contra program But there is no way to get a vote this week I we leave it attached to the bill at will lose the money we need for El Salvador 2 We have had a vote on the anti-Sandinista program and the Democrats voted it down It already is on the record and the Democrats are on the record 3 I would like to get money tor the Contras also but another lawyer Jim Baker said that get money from third countries it is an impeachable otfense S Mr Case i am entitled to complete the record Jim Baker said tEEt i we tried to get money from third countries without notifying the oversight committees it could be a problem and he was informed that the finding does provide for the participation and cocperetion or third countries Once he learned that the funding does encourage cooperation from third countries Jim Baker immediately dropped his view that this could be an impeachable otfense' and you heard him say that George 5 Secretary Shultz Jim Baker's argunent is that the US Government may raise an spend tunde only through an appropriation of the Congress 5 Secreter Weinber er I on another lawyer who isn't practicing lib But Jin 533s should realize that the United States would not be spending the money for the anticoandinista program it is merely helping the anti-Sandinistas obtain the money tron other sources Thererore the United States is not as a government spending eoney obtained from other souroee S Shults I think we need to get an opinion from the - they enera on whether we can help the Centres obtain money roa third sources It would be the prudent thing to do On the negotiations all the other countries support this The question is can the US conduct the negotiations so that it is perceived as supporting the Contadora process I people here are so SECRET 10 SECRET reluctant then we can go back and tr to abort this whole thing I an very conscious of all the negative points which have been raised I give the chances of a positive negotiation outcome with Nicaragua as two-in-ten but i it doesn t succeed it needs to be clear where the responsibility is and that we have tried to help our Contadora friends obtain a positive outcome 5 Mr McParlane Mr President perhaps I might define the issues as they stand now 1 a negotiating process in order to get a good Contadora treaty is 2 Marxist-leninist regimes historically do not negotiate in order to make reasonable concessions as we saw over many years in North Korea and Vietnam For than negotiations are tactical exercises to split up their opponents and to obtain their goals 3 How can there he a multilateral errort rather than one with Nicaragua in which the U5 is in the lead 0n the military tront we had 2 200 troops and now we have about 700 there S Secrets weinber er We brought the numbers down to 700 on our own in order to with the critical perception that we were in some way militariring the situation down there We can always move to increase the exercises and we can nova exercises in and out so that we support our friends without creating the appearance that we are increasing the number or I President Reagan Even the appearance or movonent or US troops into uras or ereroiees the covenant or small units would lixely help the morale of General Vessel Yes and US troop movements helped El Salvador very out uring the communist otfensive against the elections this yeer The guerrillas in El Salvador hen to turn and race the direction or US troop movements because they were arraid that our forces eight have attached or might have backed up a Honduran attack against them So we played a positive role in bluntin the Salvadoran guerrilla actions S President Rea an I think there is merit to continuing the current nego ting session with the Nicaraguans which has already begun because the press is eager to paint us as having failed again and we don't want to let Nicaragua get or the hook Iovever He should see these talks as only an adjunct to the contadore what we are doing with the Nicaraguans is that our special aabaeaador is there to help the Contadora process aloeg 8 Shults Our Aide Meooire places heavy emphasis on the on re process we have no intention of getting a separAte bilateral agreement or treaty rs there is any glory to he obtained than we are hoping to have the Contadora countries get SECRET SECRET this if they can get a good treaty I am of the same mind as you Mr President that we must get the funds for the Contras 5 President Rea an The Contra funding is like the ex spending It is what vii Keep the pressure on Nicaragua and the only way as are going to get a good ontadora treaty is i we keep the pressure on S Amb Kirkpatrick Mr President I an no expert on legislative filations but in the last weak I have spoken with many congressmen and from what I have heard they feel that the Administration has not attached the same priority to getting funds for the Contras as we have for the ex program and NATO issues We have not made the impression that it the Congress cuts of the Contra funding this is or major importance to the Administration On the question or who negotiates with whom we should remember that the hexicans have always wanted the US and Cuba in the negotiation process I we would go along this_patn of bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua as the Mexicans want we will sooner end I mean berore November face the issue or the Cubans being included I can tell you Mr President that Venezuela Colombia and other countries in the region do not want Cuba involved directly and they do not want the United States involved in direct talks They have approached the United Nations Secretary General in order to invite him to help the Contadora process along But it we start direct bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua then Colombia Panama and maybe even Venezuela will blame us or their failure The Foreign Ministers in those countries in my judgment lack experience and they definitely do not want us involved right now 5 Secrets Shults Mexico Panama Colombia and Venezuela say they are EeIigHted with our initiative Concerning our erforts in Congress to obtain the anti-Sandinista runding Senator Kasten and others say we have really worked on this issue In the Rouse or Representatives General Vessey and I went up to the Congress and offered to brie the full House or Representatives on Central Aaerioa--about 150 Members case We had a 9 04 discussion I have also spent an hour-endea-guarter on with Tip O'Neill on this issues-this may be the first time he has listened to anyone ron the Adninistration talk to him about this t8 Hr 3 It is essential that we tell tho Congress what will they fail to provide the running for the antic Sandinistas At the sane time to can go ahead in trying to help obtain funding for the anti-sandinistas tron other sources the inding does say erplicitly 'the united States should cooperate with other governments and seek support or other governments SECRET The limitation we havo in the Congress is the cap on Us spend 3g V0 3 qt that lifted We have met no resistance from senior members or the intelligence committees to the idea of getting help with third country funding 5 hr heese As another non-practicing lawyer I want to emphasize 53 it's important to tell the Department of Justice that we want then to find the proper and legal basis which will permit the United States to assist in obtaining third party resources for the anti-Sandinistas You have to give lawyers guidance when asking them a question S Secrets Weinber er I agree that we should be giving greater enp isis to obtaining funding for the anti-Sandinistas we should mehe it a major issue with the Congress hr President also agree that we should facilitate third country support for the anti-Sandinista groups Third I want to emphasize my concerns about the Us trying to conduct separate bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua in order to get a regional settlement we should be supporting the Contadore countries in order to help then get a good treaty we should not be taking the lead in doing this ourselves And I believe we would have ouch better success with Congress is we are seen an helping others to obtain a good Contadora treaty and that there would be negative effects it hexico and Cuba are seen so toning into the whole negotiating process Honduras is not eager to have the United States undertake these separate bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua In fact they are very alarmed about this and that is why they are starting to pull away tron security cooperation with us S Mr McFarlane With regard to diplomacy Secretary Shultz should recommend specitic measures so that the negotiating process will in tact be perceived as supportive of these friendly Central American countries in order to obtain a good Contadors treaty The Secretary of Detense can propose such additional activities as may help our triends neat the coming guerrilla offensive in El Salvador and improve the morale as our friends in the region Jim Baker and_sd Hesse night examine the best way or getting additional annoy to expand our public affairs efforts and to have a greater insect in the Congress and to obtain an opinion tron the Attorney we need the legal opinion which makes clear that the authority to facilitate third country running tor the antioiandinistss and at the sane time we need to rind a way to provide humanitarian assistance to any anti-Ssndinista and their aniliee who might be going into Costa Rica or honours to escape the Nicaraguan military actions against then We need this humanitarian assistance to be available right SECRET I SECRET President Ree an There are persons now meeting with the Sicaraguans gas without aborting anything we do want to keep getting a good Contedora treaty as the focus of our process On the enti-Sendinistas I in behind an ell-out push 3 Congress we must obtain the funds to help these freedom fighters On the Contedore negatiations there is a risk right now that our separate talks with the Nicaraguans might be misunderstood and we need to make sure does not happen and that our friends know they can rely on us S Secretary Weinberger We don t need to shut off or abort any negatietions Ks I have said there is a third way between no negotiations and separate US Niceragun bilateral deal That third way Mr President is that we continue actively to support our Central American friends in order to get a good Contedore treety provides a reel solution 5 Secretar Shultz Right now Shleudemen is instructed to talk only aSSut the US Aide Memoirs and we can keep to the Contadore process as the besis of our talks with the Niceraguans but then the US negotiating initiative with Nicaragua is no President Reagan I don t think we should quit on it S Secreter Weinber er We don't need to quit-cjust use the US telEe with NIceregue in order to support our Central Anericen friends and get a good Contedore treaty 3 President Rea an I just think now to back away tron talks will like a defeat but I can t imagine that xiceregua would otter anything reasonable in a bilateral Mr hoterlene The tour triendly Central American coun riee deveIo ZE a treaty propoeel in late April Secretary Shultz end the four Contadora countries have the text or a draft Contedore treaty which needs a lot or work to become reasonable One possible agenda ital to the UScNicerague talks is that the US could talk about the draft Contedora treaty end use the late April document or the Central Anericen four countries to provide criteria for how this treaty needs to be improved Then the US can go beck to these tour Central American countries with Nicaraguan coilents on the draft treaty and suggestions for improving it 8 Hr eece Is ther any chance to pass the tunes for the 2332 33331nistss before the Congress goes on recess 5 We estimate that or about 8 000 fighters 4 000 nig ecide to get out or hicerngue once their ennunition SECRET L4 SECRET runs out in August and each 0 may about fou family munbarn with him hcrefore thosa 16 000 possible ow refugees need to hnvo humanitarian assistance nvnil able by Vice President Bush How can anyona object to the CS encouraging third parties to provide help to the anti-Sandinistas undo the finding Tho only problcm that might come up i it tho United States worn to promise to give these third parties something in rotuxn so that some people could intorprot this as some kind of Van Hr Case Jim Baker changed his mind as soon as he saw the Sinainq and saw the Mr McFarlano I propose that that b no authority or anyone to saoE third party support for tho anti-Snndiniatns until we have the information we need and I certainly hop non of this discussion will be made public in 1ny way 5 Prasidont Ran an I such story gets out we ll all be hanging By our in front of tho whit Bout until we find out who did The wanting ndjournod at 3 50 52 93 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL 3C 3306 323 3 NATICNAL SECURITY PLANNING GROUP KEETIX June 25 2 00-3 00 P M Situatlcn Room SUBJECT Central PARTICIPANTS The Tn Prnsiden The Vice Office Admlral aanlel J aurphy State Secretary Georg P Shultz Mr chhael Armncost Mr A notloy De ance ecrctary Caspar w Dr Fred Ikle 0H8 Dr Altcn Kael CIA William J Casey Mr Duane Clarridge USUN XEBEssado Joana J Kirkpatrick JCS General John H Veasey Jr Admiral Axthu S Mctaau white Hausa sneeze C acrazlane Admiral Jean M NSC Ccastantine C Henge Minutes M Mcrazlane the puxpcse c hls meeting is e focus on politicaI eccnoaic and military in Centzal Ame SECRET DE SIFY ON OADR a T 80' 2 rcorr to otter a status report and to discuss next steps need keep our friends together while continuing to make progr toward our overall political goals There is good news a new trom Central America as is always the case The goc includes the tact that Congress will provide in add military assistance for El Salvadoro-SBOM or which has a team spent At the same time we continue to need the a in aid for El Salvador which we have requested in 1 supplemental and we need to continue pressing for that The bad news includes the fact that there seems to be no that the Democratic leadership will proVide or any vote Nicaraguan program During the last vote in the house o Representatives we lost by 64 votes and that means that to change 32 votes in order to continue funding the anti-Sandinista program On June 1 Secretary or State and hr Ortega of the Nicaraguan Directorate net in Hits The key question we need to consider now is what we beli the prospects for further talks with Nicaragua do we be that Nicaragua wants to come to a reasonable agreement the answer to that questiono-how do we keep the friendly American governments together and focused on a multilatez comprehensive and verifiable treaty What can we do to reinforce the conridence or the Central American and reg countries in the US in the light or questions about cont congressional support for the anti 5andinista program example is there a need for any additional military res for the collection or intelligence or military exercises disrupt or deter the communist guerrilla ottensive which expect will be coming in El Salvador in late summer or a what can we do to increase public understanding or the in Central America and of our Central American policy no hero in the United States but also in Western Europe and America and among other western countries U We will begin with Secretary Shultr addressing the dipio situation followed by Bill Casey reporting on the treedo fighters in Nicaragua and Cap weinherger and General ve commenting on the nilitary situation 8 Mr President we would not have gott as o7 ferahing missiles in Europe if people had that wo had a credible vigorous negotiation going on Similarly you have moved to get yourself in a position where we have made credible proposals and they have out This is useful because it shows who is at tsult to lack or Similarly in Central America our basic thrust has to't generate positive elements of the political and economic 52 12 situation and to proVide security help so that our efforts disrupt the Nicaraguan export of subversion are as strong a5 can get An essential ingredient in that strategy is that we say if Nicaragua is halfway reasonable there could be a regional negotiated solution -one which we support as much as can It is essential to have something like that going on or else our support on the Hill goes down So it is not a quest of making a prediction about the outcome of negotiations rat it is important that we don't get sucked into something bad a is essential to our strategy to key everything we do to suppo for the Contadora regional processes as I shall call it S So on our efforts to engage Nicaragua there is one piece of bad news We don t have the votes in the House of Represents tives to obtain additional funds for the anti-Sandinistas Congress will now be out for three weeks and therefore anything credible going on the negotiating track can only hel us There is a sense of unease in Honduras about what is tax place for a great many reasons The situation in El Salvador a great big plus assuming we get additional US military assistance and taking what we got after the nun's case was solved we have a good track at the onnibue supplemental and not we can use 21 d again Nicaragua is in trouble though badly so especially i the anti-Sandinista funds run out is some shift in attitude of the hexicans For example Sepulveda went to El Salvador and there is some Mexican impatience with Nicaragua about their posture on the negotiations This morning I spent some time with the US Ambassador to Honduras There are things we can do to ease concern of the Government or Honduras They are very concern about the US bilateral conversations with Nicaragua but the concerns can be assuaged Their main problems are internal- economic and the military change President Suazo upset The most serious problem is what Honduras can do with Nicaraguan freedom fighters who return Freeident Suazo is a bothered by the sharp decline in the as military presence 5 In the meantime we have a negotiation going on both in the Contadora process and in this little effort with Nicaragua approach is 1 to consult closely with our friends 2 he our triende posted so they see we are trying to help By and large they see this as helpful as contributing to the Conta process and us as supporting them s Today is the zirst us-Nicaragua meeting since June 1 we sai would not meet with the Mexicans present Nicaragua said we to keep the Mexicans informed The United States said will inform all our friends in the Contadora countries The tirst meeting was at A H hexican time or noon our time Ambassador Shlaudeman was instructed in the first session SECRET o i 1 to talk about modalities and procedure -not to taole anything But to continue these negotiations we must have content We think the beat way for this to go on is to have a home-tc ncme approach meaning alternating between the US and Nicaragua cannot say much about frequency Nicaragua has lived up to i agreement about this negotiation There was no press notification cetore this meeting 5 Cur negotiating strategy is to table an Aide Memoire saying he is our approach which we have written out and which is what told the Core Four we would do so they would not be surprised we have not given the Core Pour the Aide Memoire which change recently as a result or discussions which Fred Ikle Admiral Moreau We have to follow the Aide hemoira with an approach to negotiations which I diecusaed with almost everyo before June 1 except for Jeane Kirkpatrick who was out or t country Instead of a vertical approach to the negotiations taking some or the our topics on one at a time we suggest taking some or etch or the four in a horizontal approach Ambassador Shlaudeman has a tableau of four steps with blank where any numbers are involved From the etandpoint of negotiations we need to get the word to go ahead or we need decide on some other approach Then we will euhvert the who thing and it will have to abort I have to get word to hr tharlane Now we'll receive an overview o the anti- Sandinieta program from Bill Casey S hr Care The FUN in the North remains strong ARDE in the out is on the run under pressure In the North we see continued support for the $08 For example ll7rpersone walk out o Nicaragua and Honduras to join up just last week and i the central part or Nicaragua 909 people are waiting for wee in order to join up with the Fun At the moment CIA has 0 left about halt at this is being kept in order to hold fus personnel in Honduras and Costa Rica until the and o Sep embe l98 so that we can help immediately in the event that a continuing resolution makes more money available Our warehon have arms and ammunition which can hold till August Many of anti 3andiaiatea will stay in place within the country in orde to tend and they would need about $3 million to g by tor the next three months we that about halt wil retreat into Honduras and Coeta Rice in some disarray and we have to provide humanitarian assistance to help these indivzd and those they bring out with then when they come into Honour and Costa SECRET SECRET 72 ll Ill the legal Position is thAt CIA is authorized to cooperate an seek support from third countries In fact the finding encourages third country participation and support in this or are considering Salvador Guatemala Honduras I we notity the oversight committees we can pr direct sistance to help the Fox get tne money they need third countries There will be some criticism but senior members or the oversight committees recognize that we nee 2 this We need a decision to authorize our permitting the Fab obtain third country support Meanwhile the FDR Hisura an ARES are acting on their own to try to get financial support third party sources There is a gap coming up we should provide Honduras and Costa Rice with some type or humanitarian relief so they can assist the anti Sandinistas anti-Sandinistas have something stashed away but they will b needing help S I shall offer a few words now on the Cuban Hicaraguan milita buildup We see Cuban preparations for another military offensive in El Salvador while at the same time the Cubans a building their own military forces in Nicaragua we now Q tmtca I there are aggually 7 3 thousand Cuban troops in Nicaragua Castro is tellin eopie sucn a Nicaraguan eeder Ortega that our willingness to negotiate i intended to permit the United States to buy time until we ta military action against Cuba and Nicaragua are moving more quickly to complete the construction ot the new 3100 meter airport in Punta Huetea 'could support Nicaraguan and cargo jets Two other runwa at two other airports are nea the point where they could take jet fighter planes and also Soviet cargo planes Further we see that 45 Nicaraguan pil trained in the Soviet bloc have returned to Nicaragua 5 The Department or Defense objected strong con ent of the State Department negotiating proposals with respect to the numerical restrictions which have been placed on US forces in Central America The conta that giro step negotiating proposal and the hide Memoire is a negotiating position that the United States should be presenting he don't want to appear in old paternalistic No American ashion to be taking over the negotiations We don think it seemly to dignity Nicaragua by having the home to meeting approach in which US and Nicaraguan negotiating team alternate meetings from one capital to the other Rather we should be doing is helping the Central American countries SECRET f 1 a take the lead in the Contadora process in order to get a Contadora treaty This is the third choice between no negotiations and the separate bilateral negotiations op State we favor the third choice or helping the Contador countries who are our friends obtain a comprehensive an verifiable Contadora treaty S n military issues we have reduced our troop levels tryi keep to about 700 But let me emphasize this is a self- limit and we can increase that number now I we went a with the first step of the State negotiating proposal to Nicaragua as originally planned we would have given up a our flexibility We would have given up the ability or Defense Department to increase its physical presence in C America above a certain low limit that was specified on anti Sandinista issue I think we need to take the otfens against the Democrats in Congress We need to hold then accountable for not providing the resources needed to def democracy we need to hold the Democrats accountable w ask the Democrats whether they want a second Cuba They Ortega going atter the visit or Secretary Shult to Haven then to Moscow Do the American people want this We an emphasize this to the Democrats in Congress rather than the bilateral negotiating tack where we would be giving economic aid helping them economically Whatever else to assure that we can keep a US troop presence in Hondura whatever size is needed to help dsrend our General Vesse I'm going to go over sane o the nateria Bill Easey covered in a general overview In Nicaragua an economy in bad shape We see the government losing po support and we see the airfields being readied tor jet Admiral Moreau would you please bring the photos to the President The Contra have achieved considerable succ Nicaragua in disrupting Nicaraguan military operations ani preparations In 8onduras the economy is in ditticult condition but the civilian government is functioning wel although there is a great concern in Honduras about the returning into Sonduras The regional training center ha functioning well and we have trained about 3 000 Selvado troops this year 3 Looking in overview at what we are doing to provide suppo wont to mention the following things we are doing now spring deployment exercises are finished and no additiona exercises are scheduled between now and becenher The to presence will rennin continuous at about the current lave Congress approved the construction or two tonporary nilit bases and we are doing a number of things in th area intelligence collection such as the following SECRET U I mmy nannoan vowwnw ca an marrotwnn nu mnoacnnaa naucwnu nona no sown moancn u avo sac anonoawn pan anwwnanx mno an nusx nnouauww noon an anonnaanw nanxnaa 0n puuwununno muwcunon no soon nun unawnuoanw upwm awwppoa Ha muapanunna an to span no noanwaco nonnacnwma can nun-nan w whoNunu nuances nuns noaawnaoann ocn newwnw nu co not can an a 903 0 tunna an to ww bunna anmapn mnoa nun on qwnnon Am mnnuwaonn war as an hwy Hanan on acnnonn non nun pan - munmwawunuu mot nun to man nun gunman Ma an noaanoaa mace no no son- unnu43 swan nonuann no and awun-nannou o can unannounpnnon no Manonnunn mnoa nuun unwua_ no and gunman nuoa noamuoun mv monnonuuw mu nun non moan henna-w waonwnma henna on can nononwunvna mnonOnaw naun a manna a amow uhca can 405 one as rhao mono no nubn can ancaa no nun zpnunuacubu nonuwu non 3 4 sum noon nu not A numn can can nanny-non nape upon annonnooa woman so nun n own an any a soaonuunuoa tawny mean an Hana a on uwwunonmw new tuna mannanmn munwnuu aunt nmv n on turn a wanna no we we wnbnochuno pun gunman w an Hana unannoon awe uno Inao na tau exam away an gonna manna run one on an monnonmnw on nonoaua m monnanun anubuon on moan on can unwonnu up mononuw raonr muqa anon was 3530 tawny an on monan can can nacunon on manannun pun awnuuaan wan manannuw unnonaooa hm mnoawanuu nun an Mn 6 an Mann wanna noaonwunwon mmomuunab n no munanonnana no pabmuno nun noaacn undonuubun aura nun dawn aux- puw now-onuuwo agar tuna acmuonn nun nun can no wowomap m ran annex 3n an axe Gunman zunuonu an nononwuno on e onwnukba tpnu nun nonunuwoa pa no 10nwn waywaca Ha awmwoabnw an an anaonwunponu man an ya can AH Prluwn - urns Seiko-tn- important to avoid getting into the situation of assuming responsibility for something which cannot be achieved know we often find it useful to support other countries whi are trying to achieve political settlements when we ourselv remain in the background For exemple in Arghenisten in t Persian Gui where we are helping those countries trying to settle the wer there without ourselves moVing into the fore and in Lebanon where we found that we were not able to hru about a negotiated solution and where we are now working in 1 background to fetilitate solution by working with our trim and through our friends In my judgment the analogy of Cen America is much closer to the Persian Gui situation then it to the issue of the deployment or Pershing missiles in Europ Let us remember that the Contadore process began in early 19 an initiative of the Latin American countries and that when sent me to the region in February 1983 they told me that th wanted to try to negotiate a political settlement among themselves The reecon the United States got out or the pro directly was because the other coun ries wented us out The wanted to establish their own negotiating process and they 1 made some progress Venezuela Coloohie and Penemn have her more responsible as a result of trying to achieve a negotistt settlement They are now much less critical of us than they were Now they realize how difficult Nicarague is and now have come to the hard part or the negotiation S As we now undertake separate bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua rather than continuing to support the 21 Contedor ohjectives these Latin American countries may well take thi an excuse to stand aside They will get off the hook and ti will put us on the spot I we give Mexico any special role it will further undornine the Contedore process and in fact Contadore process would then prooebly fell apart because any preference shown toward hexico which he been supporting tn Nicaraguans and communist guerrillas will undermine pressur a genuine negotiated solution we would then be under lots of pressure tron Congress it the United States were negotis bilaterally with Riceregue to nuke additional concessions These bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua will scare our triends in the region end they will neither help Congress In fact the coincidence or our this bilateral negotiating errort at the some to the Congress teile to support funding to the Centres is eno to totally unrevel our entire position in the I we don't find the money to support the Centres it will perceived in the region and the world as our having ehendone then and this will lend to an increase in retugees in the and it will permit Niceregue to intiltrete thousands oi Nicaraguan trained forces into El Salvador And this will - x SECRET an infiltration we could not stop the Democrats don't want vote because they don t want to accept the responsil-lity for their votes against this program I believe we need to make their responsibility in the Congress clear to the as public we must require the Democrats to stand up and be counted 2 you showed your commitment and the Administration's commitment with more sotivity it would be a positive factor in Congress 5 we can't get the money for the anti $andinistas then we should mane the maximum eitort to find the money elsewhere even i we couldn't find money elsewhere immediately we should consider using the anti 5andinistas elsewhere for the time being for example in El Salvador to help derend against the coming guerrilla ottensive 5 Secretar Shultr Several points everyone agrees with the Eontra program But there is no way to get a vote this week I we leave it attached to the bill we will lose the money we need for El Salvador 2 We have had a vote on the anti-Sandinista program and the Democrats voted it down It already is on the record and the Democrats are on the record 3 I would like to get money tor the Centres also but another lawyer Jim Baker said that get money from third countries it is an impeachable otfense S Mr Case i am entitled to complete the record Jim Baker said tEEt i we tried to get money from third countries without notifying the oversight committees it could be a problem and he was informed that the finding does provide for the participation and cooperation of third countries Once he learned that the funding does encourage cooperation from third countries Jim Baker immediately dropped his view that this could be an impeachable otfense' and you heard him say that George 5 Secretarz Shultz Jim Baker's argument is that the US Government may raise an spend tunds only through an appropriation of the Congrese S Secreter Weinber er I an another lawyer who isn't practicing lib Sut Jim 533s should realize that the United States would not be spending the money for the anticoandinista program it is merely helping the anti-Sandinistas obtain the money tron other sources Thererore the United States is not as a government spending noney obtained from other sourcee S Shultr I think we need to get an opinion from the - they enera on whether we can help the Centres obtain money roa third sources It would be the prudent thing to do On the negotiations all the other countries support this The question is can the US conduct the negotiations so that it is perceived as supporting the Conradora process It people here are so SECRET 10 SECRET reluctant than we can go back and tr to abort this whole I an very conscious of all the negative points which have raised I give the chances of a positive negotiation outcome with Nicaragua as two-in-ten but i it doesn t succeed it he to be clear where the responsibility is and that we have tri to help our Contadora friends obtain a positive outcome 5 Mr McFarland Mr President perhaps I might define the isst as they stand now 1 a negotiating process in order to get good Contadora treaty is 2 Marxist-leninist regimes historically do not negotiate in order to make reasons concessions as we saw over many years in North Korea and Vietnam For them negotiations are tactical exercises to spli up their opponents and to obtain their goalsmultilateral etiort rather than one with Nicaragua in oh the U5 is in the lead 0n the military tront we had 2 200 troops and now we have about 700 there 5 Secrets weinber er We brought the numbers down to 700 on own in order to deaI with the critical perception that we were some way militariring the situation down there We can always move to increase the exercises and we can nova exercises in I out so that we support our friends without creating the appearance that we are increasing the number or I President Reagan Even the appearance of movonent or US troo into urea or exercises the covenant or small units won lixely help the morale of General Vessel Yes and US troop movements helped 1 Salvac very muc uring the communist otfensive against the election this year The guerrillas in El Salvador had to turn and rec the direction or US troop movements because they wore arraid 1 our forces night have attached or might have backed up a Hondx attack against them So we played a positive role in bluntih the Salvadoran guerrilla actions S President Rea an I think there is merit to continuing the current nego ting session with the Nicaraguans which has already begun because the press is eager to paint us as havxn tailed again and we don't want to let Nicaragua get or the hook However so should see those talks as only an adjunct the contadora what we are doing with the Nicaraguans is tha our special is there to holp the Contadora process along 8 Shults Our Aide henoire places heavy enphasis on on rs process we have no intention of getting a soparat bilatoral agreement or treaty it there is any glory to be obtained than we are hoping to have the Contadora countries SECRET SECRET this if they can get a good treaty I am of the same mind as you Mr President that we must get the funds for the Contras 5 President Res an The Contra funding is like the ex spending It is what vii Keep the pressure on Nicaragua and the only way as are going to get a good ontadora treaty is i we keep the pressure on S Amb Kirkpatrick Mr President I an no expert on legislative filations but in the last week I have spoken with many congressmen and from what I have heard they feel that the Administration has not attached the same priority to getting funds for the Contras as we have for the ex program and NATO issues We have not made the impression that it the Congress cuts of the Contra funding this is or major importance to the Administration On the question or who negotiates with whom we should remember that the hexicans have always wanted the US and Cuba in the negotiation process I we would go along this_path of bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua as the Mexicans want we will sooner end I mean berore November face the issue or the Cubans being included I can tell you Mr President that Venezuela Colombia and other countries in the region do not want Cuba involved directly and they do not want the United States involved in direct talks They have approached the United Nations Secretary General in order to invite him to help the Contadora process along But it we start direct bilateral negotiations with Nicaragua then Colombia Panama and maybe even Venezuela will blame us or their failure The Foreign Ministers in those countries in my judgment lack experience and they definitely do not want us involved right now 5 Secrets Shults Mexico Panama Colombia and Venezuela say 50 are EeIigHted with our initiative Concerning our erforts in Congress to obtain the anti-Sandinista tunding Senator Kasten and others say we have really worked on this issue In the Rouse or Representatives General Vessey and I went up to the Congress and offered to brie the full House or Representatives on Central Anerica--about 150 Numbers care we had a 9 04 discussion I have also spent an hour-endea-guarter on with Tip O'Neill on this issues-this may be the first tine he has listened to anyone ron the Adninistration talk to him about that hr 3 It is essential that we tell tho Congress what will they fail to provide the tending for the antic Sandinistas At the sane time to can go ahead in trying to help obtain funding for the anti-sandinistas tron other sources the inding does say erplicitly 'the united States should cooperate with other governments and seek support or other governments 314325 ECRET Ul Tho limitation wo havo in tho Congross it tho cap on US spec V0 3 qt that liftod Wo have not no rooistanco from sonic numbers of tho intolligenco committoos to tho idoa o gotting holp with third country funding 5 Mr Kooso As anothor non-practicing lawyor I want to ampha tEIt it's important to toll tho Gooartmont of Justice that a want thou to find tho propor and logal basis which will perm tho Unitod Statos to assist in obtaining third party rosourc for tho anti-Sandinistas You havo to givo lawyors guidanco asking than a quostion S Socrota woinhor or I agroo that wo should ho giving groa omp ioia to obtaining funding for tho anti-Sandinistas wo should maho it a major issue with tho Congroso hr Prosidon also agroo that wo should facilitato third country support tho anti-Sandinista groups Third I want to onphaaizo my concorns about tho Us trying to conduct soporato bilateral nogotiations with Nicaragua in ordor to got a rogional sottlomont w should bo supporting tho Contadcra countries ordor to help thl got a good troaty wo should not be tahin load in doing this ouraolvos And I boliovo we would have bottor succoss with Congroso i2 wo are soon on holping othor obtain a good Contadora troaty and that thoro would bo nogot otfocto i2 noxico and Cuba are soon as toning into tho whole nogotiating procoss Honduras is not oagor to havo tho Unit Statos undertako thoso soparato bilatoral nogotiations with Nicaragua In tact thoy aro vary alarood about this and th why thoy aro starting to pull away tron socurity cooperation us S Mr McFarlano With rogard to diplomacy Socrotary Shultz rocommond spocitic moaauros so that tho nogotiating procoos in tact ho porcoivod as supportivo of those triondly Contra American countrios in ordor to obtain a good Contadora troat Tho Socrotary of notonso can proposo such additional activit as may hoip our triondo hoot tho coming guorrilla orfonsivo Salvador and improvo tho morale o2 our friends in the region Jim aahor and_ d Mooso night oxanino tho boot way or gotting additional annoy to oapand our sublic affairs ottorts and to a grootor insoct in tho Congress and to obtain an opinion t tho Attorney Ho nood tho legal opinion which mokoa cloar that authority to facilitato third country tunding to antiOSaodiniotaos and at tho tino wo hood to rind a ws provido humanitarian asaistanco to any anti-Sandinista and anilioo who might bo going into Costa Rica or honouras to tho Nicaraguan military actions against then We nood this humanitarian assistance to bo avoilablo right SECRET SECRET President Ree en There are persons now meeting with the Sicsreguene g d without aborting anything we do went to keep getting a good Contedore treety as the focus of our process On the enti-Sendinistes I an behind an all-out push 3 Congress we must ootein the funds to help these freedom fighters On the Contedore negatietions there is risk right now our segerate telks with the Niceraguens might be misunderstood and we need to mehe sure that does not happen and the our friends know they cen rely on us S Secretary Weinberger We don t need to shut off or abort any negatintions Re I have said there is third way between no negotiations and a separate US Niceregun hilaterel deal That third wey Mr President is that we continue actively to suptort our Central Anericen friends in order to get good Contedore treety the provides reel solution 5 Secrets Shultz Right now Shleudemen is instructed to telk onIy eSSut the US Aide Memoire and we can keno to the Contsdore process as the besis of our talks with the Nicertguene but then the US negotiating initietive with Nicaragua is no President Reegen I don t think we should quit on it S Secreter weinher er we don't need to quit-cjust use the US telEe with Niceregue in order to support our Central Anericen friends end get a good Contedore treety 3 President Ree en I juet think now to heck ewey tron talks wiII also cog like defeat but I can t inegine that Nicaragua would offer anything reasonable in bilateral Mr hcrerlene The tour triendly Centrel Americen countries deveIo ZE treaty propoeel in late April Secretery Shultz and the four Contedore countries have the text of draft Contedore treaty which needs lot at work to become reasonable One possible agenda ital tor the usc iceregue talks is the US could talk about the draft Contedore tresty end use the lets April document or the Central Anericen four countries to provide criteria for how this treety needs to be improved Then the cs cen go beck to these tour Central American countries with Niceraquen coilente on the draft treety end euggestions for improving it 8 Hr Store In ther any chance to sees the tunds for the 2332 33331nietne hereto the Congress goes on recese 5 We estinete that or ehcut 8 000 fighters 4 000 nig ecide to get out or nicerngue once their ennunition SECRET L4 SECRET rune out in August and each or these may have about four family numbers with him Therefore these 16 000 possible new refugees need to have humanitarian eveileble by Vice President Bush How can anyone object to the CS encouraging Elta pertiee to provide help to the anti-Sendinistas under the finding The only problem might come up i if the United States were to promise to give these third pertiee something in return so that some people could interpret this as some kind of Van exchange S Hr Case Jim Baker changed his mind ea soon as he sew the Sinainq end saw the Mr McPerlene I propose that there be no authority or anyone to seeE third perty support for the enti-Sendinietee until we have the information we need end I certainly hope none of this discussion will be made public in eny way 5 7 President Rae en I such story gets out we ll ell be hanging By our in front or the white House until we find out who did The meeting edjourned at 3 50 52 93