DECLASSHHED Authority mm PAGE 81 3398 ACTION SP-BZ MOSCON 24365 3916381 INFO EUR-12 nus-ea DES-59 ans-32 sso-aa uses as INRE-BO ACDA-12 l0-14 L-OB NSAE-OO EB-OS NRC-OZ nooE-Ea DOE-17 CEO-D1 PM-OB 1125 678549 3916342 I53 0 3616181 oc7 79 FM ANEMBASSY noscow 70 SECSTATE HASHDC IMMEDIATE 3526 INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE I 7 I A noscou 24863 m zz m E o 12665 ROS-1 18 36 89 unison THOMAS J OR-M TAGS TECH NNUC UR SF SOBJ c7 SUSPECTED NUCLEAR EVENT warn Cm REF IA STATE 231777 IBI STATE 279935 1 IC-ENTIRE TEXT 2 SCICOUNS MET MOROZOV DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE STATE COMMITTEE FOR THE UTILIZATION OF ATOMIC ENERGY AND SOVIET RPRESENTATIVE TO IAEA BOARD OF GOVERNORS OCTOBER 38 TO BRIEF HIM ON THE SUSPECTED NUCLEAR EVENT IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SCICOUNS DREU FROM THE BACK- GROUND PRESS BRIEFING IREFTEL BI AND MADE THE SPECIFIC POINTS PROVIDED REFTEL A 3 IN RESPONSE MOROZOV FIRST POINTED TO THE OFFICIAL TASS ANNOUNCEMENT PRINTED IN PRAVDA OCTOBER 3O THAT EXPLOSIONS ACCIDENTS OR ROCKET LAUNCHES FROM SOVIET SUBMARINES TOOK PLACE IN THIS THIS ANNOUNCEMENT MAS MADE ACCORDING TO PRAVDA IN RESPONSE TO THE FALSE REPORTS SPREAD BY SOUTH AFRICAN INFORMATION AGENCIES THAT THE SEPTEMBER 22 INCIDENT HAD RESULTEO FROM AN ACCIDENT ON BOARD A SOVIET NUCLEAR SUBMARINE MOROZOV ALSO HAS PUZZLED THAT THE US HAD OBTAINED NO CORROBORATING INFORMATION BY OTHER MEANS AIR SAMPLES AND SEISMIC DATA FOR EXAMPLE SCICOUNS SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT THE STATEMENT IN THE OCTOBER 30 PRAVDA PIECE THAT TECHNICAL SERVICES HAD ESTABLISHED THROUGH COLLECTION OF AIR SAMPLES THAT ACTIVITY IS PRESENT IN THE REGION OF THE HAS FALSE AS FAR AS EMBASSY KNENITHAT IS AS OF THE OCTOBER 26 BACKGROUNDERI AND THAT HE HERE CONTINUING TO ANALYIE ALL INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO US A MOROIOV SAID THAT HE DID NOT HAVE ACCESS TO SOVIET MEANS OF VERIFYING THE NATURE OF THE SEPTEMBER 22 IN- CIDENT HE PROMISED IMMEDIATELY TO PASS ON THE US REQUEST FOR INFORMATION TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SCICOUNS HAS MEETING SCHEDULED NITH H P DEPUTY CHIEF OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION DEPARTMENT AT MFA ON OCTOBER 31 MOROZOV EXPRESSED APPRECIATION FOR THE BRIEFING AND ASKED TO BE KEPT INFORMED OF FURTHER ANALYSIS OF US DATA 5 MOROZOV THEN REVIENED HIS ONN CONTACTS NITH US POLICY- MAKERS ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN NUCLEAR ISSUE OVER THE PAST 14 MONTHS HE RECALLED AMBASSADOR RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT IN SEPTEMBER 1973 AT THE IAEA AND THE SOMEUHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC VIEWS OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY PICKERING DURING HIS FEBRUARY 1979 VISIT TO MOSCON HE ASSERTEDTHAT IF AN EXPLOSION HAS INDEED TAKEN PLACE THERE IS A NEED TO TAKE VERY ENERGETIC MEASURES NOT TO LET THE SITUATION DEVELOP FURTHER HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT ANY EXPLOSION NOULO HAVE VERY SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE NEXT IAEA BOARD OF GOVERNORS MEETING IN NEH DELHI IN DECEMBER iF THE INVOLVEMENT OF OTHER COUNTRIES IN ADDITION TO SOUTH AFRICA IS ESTABLISHED IAPPARENTLY AN INDIRECT REFERENCE TO PRESS REPORTS ABOUT POSSIBLE ALI IAE I QPCU ment 0 l State TEL GRAIN I 3916361 0 pad- I GS ISRAELI INVOLVEMENT THIS COULD VERY SERIOUSLY UNDER- MINE THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY 6 MOROIOV SAID HE SUSPECTED THAT VELA SIGNAL HAS CORRECT AND THAT AN ATOMIC EXPLOSION HAD TAKEN PLACE HE ELIMINATED USA USSR UK OR FRANCE AS COUNTRIES NHICH MIGHT HAVE SET OFF NUCLEAR EXPLOSION HE SAID HE THINK CHINA 0R INDIA NOULD CHOOSE THAT PART OF THE WORLD FOR A TEST HE COULD NOT UNDERSTAND NHY US HAD NOT IMMEDIATELY UPON RECEIVING THE VELA SIGNAL ON SEPTEMBER 22 LAUNCHED EFFORTS TO COLLECT CORROBORATIUE EVIDENCE US HAD SEN- SITIVE SEISMIC NETNORK IMOROZOV AIDE CREDITED NETWORK NITH CAPABILITY OF DETECTING EXPLOSIONS OF ONE WHY DID NOT US SIMPLY UNROLL ITS MANY SEIS- MIC RECORDS FOR THAT HE IMPLIED US HAD NOT BEEN ANXIOUS TO FIND CORROBORATIUE EVIDENCE 7 SCICOUNS REPLIED BY STATING US HAD SOUGHT OTHER EVIDENCE BUT NITHOUT SUCCESS HE READ STATEMENTS TO MOROZOV ABOUT US-USSR COMMON INTEREST IN GETTING SOUTH AFRICA TO ADHERE T0 NPT AND ABOUT NEED FOR A NON- POLEMICAL APPROACH 8 MOROZOV REPLIED UITH RUSSIAN PROVERB GIST OF WHICH HAS THAT US DID NOT SEEM ALL THAT SERIOUS ABOUT FINDING OUT WHETHER AN EXPLOSION HAD TAKEN PLACE HE ALSO SAID THAT HE HAD READ REPORTS LESS THAN RELIABLE THAT US DATA INDICATED YIELD WAS IN THE 2 1 2 T0 4 KILOTON RANGE SCICOUNS SAID US DATA NOT ALL THAT PRECISE BUT REITERATED US DESIRE RECEIVE ANY IN- FORMATION THAT SOVIET NATIONAL MEANS OF DETECTION MIGHT PROVIDE REGARDING NHAT HAPPENED 0N SEPTEMBER 22 NATSON CONFIDENTIAL HE FELT SOUTH AFRICA HAS THE LIKELY CULPRIT AF