- Dpciassified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Reiease 2015 07 24 CIA-RDP79T00936A006500180001-6 The Pram em Dag y Brief W2 November 1968 I - 50x1 23 De-classified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015 07 24 Deoiassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved fer Release 2015 07 24 CIA-RDP79T00936A0065001 80001-6dx1 4 'Brazil 50-Soviet Union 6 Panama 1 50x1 -If the Soyuz spacecraft has-a role in Soviet manned lunar missionswmand _we are- -not certain about thism mBerego- 'voy flight doesn t get them much closer to the moon No significant ad vances were demenstrated despite the long wait since Komarov crashed in April 1967 If the Soviets go by the bookgaadditional'manned flights-Will- be neoessary before they are-ready for struction 0f a manned earth space-stam vtion or'a'manned circumlunar flight At Annex we speculate on some of the pressures facing the men running the Soviet circumlunar program ' Antijunta students and profesSors are planning to join a silent march of Slum_ dwellers in Panama City on in dependence dayumS Novembermmand they -may attempt to stage protest demonstraw tions against the National Guardo The Communist Party which nominally domie nates the largest student federation has been urging the students to cool it but withilitt1e-suooess _ The Comm munists fear further repression if the students get out of hando The government should be able to control the situation but serious clashes Cannot'be ruled outo 50x1 Declassified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015 07 24 CIA-RDP79T00936A006500180001-6 Decfassified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2015 07 24 ANNEX 'The Soviet Lunar Program To Gamble or Not to Gamble The a-nnouncement that NASA is considering flying Apollo 8 around the moon in December has probably gcreated a dilemma for Soviet leaders We believe that they realized some time ago- they_ -could not- beat the US to- a manned lunar landing and hoped instead to upstage the US- effort by making the first manned flight around the moon A successful moon flight by Apollo 8 would deny the Soviets this propaganda victory and could cause them to regard their entire manned circumlunar program as a failure They might therefore -go for broke-and attempt- a manned circum1unar mission-ahead of Apollo 86 This Would be-extremely risky however since it would- mean accelerating greatly the pace of their program -which has been plagued by serious technical problems' that resulted in- the failure of two and probably rthree of their four flights to date I The success of'Zond 5 in September might encour- -age-them to gamble on-a manned flight Last week's urgent Soviet demarches asking-for immediate permis -sien to-station recovery aircraft in India and Ceylon Lsuggests that they are at least keeping open the-op tion of gambling onta manned circumlunar-flight before Apollo 8 Aircraft in India and Ceylon would be with in easy_ reach of the area of the Indian Ocean where- rZond 5 was recovered We need more information how ever - before we can- say with certainty that- the Soviets plan to Shoot the works 50x1 Deolassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Retease 2015 07 24