THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON 20321 DECLASSIFIED - PER E 0 13526 INFORMATION 3010 MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT $1 ql 3l 3 FROM BRENT SCOWCROFT SUBJECT Short-Range Nuclear Forces and NATO's Comprehensive Concept The current dispute over modernization of short-range nuclear forces SNF and particularly the land-based missile portion of those forces stems from the US-Soviet INF treaty By eliminating land-based missiles in Europe with ranges over 500 kilometers the treaty had three principal effects 1 underscored the need to make sure that the US nuclear forces left in Europe as the most credible element in extended deterrence remained viable and survivable 2 intensified German worries that the remaining short-range nuclear forces could only hit targets on German soil implying that arms control was helping everyone but the Germans and 3 set a powerful precedent for relying on the elimination of whole classes of nuclear weapons as the way to protect the continent from the danger of nuclear war The double zero' solution in the INF treaty eliminated all US and Soviet land-based missile systems with ranges of 1000-5500 km the first zero and all land based missile systems with ranges of 500-1000 km the second zero response-to these effects of the INF treaty was twofold First the Alliance reaffirmed that it would as Defense Ministers had agreed at Montebello in 1983 modernize and improve its short-range nuclear forces while substantially reducing the overall numbers of nuclear weapons stocked in Europe This NATO agreement specifically included deployment of a follow on to the aging Lance land-based missile Second in order to reassure the Germans that total numbers of SNF weapons Could be reduced the Allies agreed to address these FRG concerns in a document called the Comprehensive Concept of Arms Control and Disarmament NATO will adopt this document at the May summit However as Kohl's political situation has deteriorated the FRG has increasingly advocated language at NATO for the Comprehensive Concept which both challenges the Montebello commitment to SNF modernization specifically the need to commit Declassify on OADR EEGRET 10301qu qung 3113 again to a follow-on to Lance FOTL and urges the immediate initiation of negotiations with MoScow on SNF systems The SNF negotiations that Bonn seeks would in the current political climate create almost irresistible pressures for a 'third zero' eliminating missile systems from 0-500 km range This would in turn hasten the denuclearization of Europe We prefer to await further progress in conventional arms control and rely on unilateral restructuring of SNF forces by the two sides rather than negotiations with Moscow to achieve equal SNF missile ceilings for the U S and Soviet Union at lower levels doaowqd 1913 ng qsna