Homeland Secu ri Threat Assessment Eyailuat iing Threats 2-009-2014- Iillt hite igence and Analysis ASSESSMENT Homeland Security Threat Assessment Evaluating Threats 2009-2014 Wrepared under the arts ices a the 0118 th Strategic Group SA G Inquiries may be directed to SAG at 69 This Assessment was approved by the Homeland Security Intelligence Council under the authority of the Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis Department of Homeland Security Jul - Information as of July 2009 was used in the preparation of this Homeland Security Threat Assessment following organizations participated in drafting this assessment the of Intelligence and Analysis Strategic Analysis Group Strategic Intelligence and Analysis Division Domestic Threat Analysis Division and Border and Immigration Security Division DHS coordinating organizations are Immigration and Customs Enforcement United States Secret Service United States Coast Guard Customs and Border Protection Transportation Security Administration and United States Citizenship and Immigration Services fea- Warning This document Is CLASSIFIED It is to be cunnutted stored haunted bansmitted dsbibuted and disposed of In accordance Min Executive Order 12958-0Iasa edmttonai Security Intennation and Its distribution shouId be n ted to individuals and hr organizations with ven ebIe needle-knew and arsz access to CLASSIFIED Ira onna w This product contains as person Intonnatiun that has been deemed necessary fortne attended redpient to understand assess or act on the information pro ded Ithas been when this document with tbeIabeIm andsboutdbe handedin acmdence mm the recipient s intelligence oversightendfor infonnablon handtr'ng mdures Other U S person infonnation has been rr nirnized Should you require the ninimized 1 8 person Information please contact the Production Branch at IAPMthansgov IAPMQdIrssgov gov SEW Table of Contents Scope 3 U Executive Summary 5 f6 Introduction 9 High-Impact Threats of Uncertain Probability Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear Threats 1O ti Threats to Health Security 11 -UI Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure 13 International and Domestic Terrorism 14 H Illicit Border Activity 15 -U Illicit Travel and Migration 16 Enduring Threats U Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear Threats 21 H Threats to Health Security 26 -9 Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure 31 -6- International and Domestic Terrorism 38 LU-I Illicit Border Activity 45 -U- Illicit Travel and Migration 53 U1 Emerging Trends -U-I Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear Threats 58 U Threats to Health Security 60 EH Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure 61 -U- International and Domestic Terrorism 61 Illicit Travel and Migration 65 Page 2 of 73 SEW DHS cannot predict from which country in uenza is most likely to translocate into the United States Ha Indicators of the Emergence of an In uenza Pandemic 69 Appearance of a virulent in uenza strain that spreads e iciently om human to human Regional medical crises related to diseasc outbreaks EU Nation-state actions in response to disease outbreaks Commitment of military forces to contain an outbreak Extensive social disorder and unrest in reSponse to an outbreak or collapse of the health infrastructure 19- Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure -U-H-FQU-G Cyber Attack on the Nation s Electric Grid System 31b - SCADA systems are a computer based mechanism primarily used for control of industrial processes Page 3 of73 W666 Because electricity cannot be stored within the electric grid power grid systems require constant monitoring and allocation of electric resources to ensure continuous operation Improved interconnectivity due to the ongoing industry transition to a Smart Grid control system infrastructure over the next five years promises to greatly improve day-to-day system allocations and reduce overall operational costs Dedicated hackers with sufficient resources and access to disrupt system operations could possibly cause widespread cascading disruptioth because of the reliance of many other key infrastructure networks on the power grid Loss of electric power could temporarily degrade at least nine and possibly all of the 18 critical infrastructure and key resource CIKR sectors identi ed by DHS as vital to the nation s security International and Domestic Terrorism Lone actors and small cells of violent extremists associated with the autigovernment or white supremacist movements pose the greatest domestically generated high-impact threat to the United States As demonstrated by the I995 Oklahoma City bombing and several disrupted plots individuals in these movements have - lanned and conducted attacks of national si ni cance within the United States 1 3 era acr itles 15 mt In capabilities of small-cell and lone-actor violent extremists associated with these movements Similarly coordinated small-arms attacks on soft targets such as sports or commercial venues although more limited in scale could have severe social or consequences nationwide 696% The most likely triggers for a high-impact attack are particular government actions or le islation that violent domestic extremists erceive are in con ict with their For examp e motivate to con uctt 995 0 a oma City bombing in response to the I993 US Government raid on the Branch Davidian compound near Waco Texas f cl bES' Furthermore the perception that previous ideologically motivated attacks were successful could in5pire lone actors or small cells to plan or conduct future attacks For exam le on 3 Ma 2009 a violent antiabortion extremist m was charged with ww mg a we - own repro uctive ea care provr er ansas l4 Less than two weeks later a white 18 identi ed areas are Energy Public Health and Healthcare National Monuments and Icons Banking and Finance Drinking Water and Water Treatment Systems Chemical Facilities Commercial Facilities Dams Emergency Services Nuclear Reactors Materials and Waste Information Technology Communications Postal and Shipping Transportation Systems Critical Manufacturing Defense Industrial Base Agriculture and Food and Government Facilities SEW Page 14 of 73 Product contamination is a continuing threat Food products and pharmaceuticals are vulnerable to contamination at many points especially during production storage and transport Because monitoring processes in some countries are less rigorous than in the United States some imported products potentially are more vulnerable to contamination Large scale product contamination of US consumer products could have severe economic and health effects -6- In early 2008 the U S Food and Drug Administration supervised the recall of a contaminated Chinese-made blood thinner connected to serious reactions and deaths in the United States 57 ame The March 2007 discovery that Chinese manufacturers were adulterating wheat flour wheat gluten and rice protein concentrate used as ingredients in animal feed and pet food with melamine prompted extensive disruptions in domestic commerce product recalls and at least short-term loss of consumer confidence 68 Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure Cyber Threats Nation-States Criminals Foreign Terrorists Page 3 of 73 fH Cyber Threat Glossary EB-Computer Network Operations CNO an umbrella term that encompasses actions taken to affect an adversary s information systems while defending one s own Computer Network Exploitation CNE offensive actions taken to gain access to and gather information om targeted networks '66 Computer Network Attack CNA offensive actions taken to disrupt degrade or destroy data on information systems or the processes that depend on them EB Computer Network Defense CND actions to eliminate mitigate or recover from the threat or activities of ONE or CNA -6- Nations as Cyber Threat Actors W99 Consistent with the 2008 HSTA assesses that foreign nations are the most capable and resource-rich cyber threat actors The most advanced cyber threat actor nations have established active and robust CNO organizations Some nations military and intelligence agencies have created distinct dedicated directorates to carry out CNO against adversaries for military economic and diplomatic gain Only a handful of nations have demonstrated the full range of CNO capabilities the information operations capabilities of other less capable nations will continue to mature over the next ve years Page 32 of 73 WW of Nation-State Cyber Capabilities Most Advanced Cyber-Capable Nations Other Nations Cyber Criminals Consistent with the 2008 HS TA assesses that the growing community of cyber criminals who have demonstrated the capability to develop advanced cyber tools are the greatest nonstate cyber threat actors to the US economy to include CIKR The capability of cyber criminals to conduct CNO now eclipses all but the most capable nation-state cyber programs The scale and costs of cyber crime Page 33 of 73 as well as the complexity of both the criminal activity itself and the challenges in protecting sensitive networks and information will grow over the next five years as Internet penetration into new markets continues to rise around the world Criminals use CNE primarily for economic gain seeking to steal nancial information and extort money from public and private entities Targeting nancial institutions and other businesses and their customers cyber criminals have caused estimated losses in the United States of as much as $67 billion annually according to the Government Accountability Of cef 9 The number of fraudulent or suspicious online nancial transactions is rising as tradecraft and expertise in the conduct of computer hacking and malicious software attacks proliferatesl 0 Cyber extortion scams demanding payment in return for protection against network intrusions and distributed denial-of-service attacks are becoming more common and suphisticated according to press reporting Hal-F9893 In April 2009 hackers reportedly in ltrated the health care records system ofthe Commonwealth of Virginia deleting records and demanding $10 million for return ofthe information Similarly in November 2008 a named U S pharmacy bene t management company was reportedly threatened with the disclosure of the personal information of millions of customers if it refused to pay a ransom to the perpetrators 2 Consistent with the 2008 HS TA assesses it is unlikely that cyber criminals would attempt national- or regional-level attacks in the United States because of the technical dif culty of mounting attacks across a variety of architectural network infrastructures the driving motivation of monetary gain over technical superiority and the probability that large-scale attacks or disruptions could spur stricter government investigation and prosecution as well as expose the criminals own networks and identities Even small-scale targeted criminal attacks could affect a service provider and create cascading effects 696426-69 - As cyber crime continues to grow more pro table more individuals and groups are likely to participate including cooperating with each other to boost their technical capabilities Cyber criminals have demonstrated cooperation and coordination leading for example to increased specialization in the building testing and application of malicious software for monitoring bank The danger for homeland security is that the development of advanced tools by cyber criminal actors and their willingness to share tradecraft could possibly allow other entities to include nation-states or terrorist groups access to cyber capabilities that they may not otherwise have developed Page 34 of 73 SEW Hy-Foreign Cyber Terrorist Threats I - 1 a 8 can Page 35 of 73 The rapid growth in popularity of social networking websites suggests that online venues could to some extent supplant traditional group-centric terrorist radicalization Younger audiences can use online forums to nd individuals or groups that support ideals that validate their unique violent extremist goals and perspectives Forum groups could generate an environment where new extremists feel empowered to act outside the guidance and control of a centralized organization 83 Such an environment for example might convince some of the newer extremists that the online instruction they receive is an acceptable alternative to traditional brick-and-mortar meeting places Online information outlets and propaganda are broadening outreach to extremist recruits and could give terrorist recruiters added leverage in exploiting persons they perceive as vulnerable or sympathetic to their message As more and more young individuals continue to establish and maintain social connections through these sites terrorist recruiters likely will use the sites for cover to mask their communications and activities and to seek out potential recruits Although without a terrorist nexus open- source reporting indicates that some criminal gangs target and groom middle school children for membership using social networking sites 4 Domestic extremists of all types use social networking sites including the creation of customized sites for speci c extremist communities 85 Security groups have tracked the increasing use of online Web forums by iihadists in Southeast Asia to circulate their message to mainstream audiences 8 8 Wm increasingly technologically savvy generation inspired by violent extremist ideologies is emerging and filling more prominent roles in extremist movements continued developments within the technology sector allow these individuals to communicate and possibly recruit or plan activities virtually These next generation extremists including young women could complement and support extremist goals by applying their online acumen rather than offering themselves up as operatives for kinetic attacks A segment of the next generation also may represent a movement away from group oriented radicalization in favor of individual action in support of extremist ideologies Explosive Threats beFGb G Consistent with the 2008 HSTA assesses that a lethal explosive attack planned and implemented by a transnational terrorist group suclt as al Qa ida poses the most serious large-scale explosive threat to homeland security Al-Qa ida s stated goals remain consistent and focused on targets that maximize economic damage and loss of life and create social turmoil The US transportation financial and energy sectors along with iconic American landmarks are the most likely al-Qa ida Homeland targets during the period of this assessment Page 36 of 73 Cyber and Explosive Threats to Critical Infrastructure EB Emerging Trends W069 Growing interconnectivity of U S critical in astructure to the Internet coupled with increased outsourcing of I services will provide malicious actors with increased Opportunities to target critical infrastructure The increasing push of foreign commercial entities into the U S telecommunications market will provide greater opportunities for foreign actors to access and potentially disrupt U S data Already maintenance and services for U S networks are outsourced to overseas entities because of lower costs and foreign corporations compete in the global information technology market by offering low-cost alternatives to U S products l International and Domestic Terrorism 'U'lfF b Oj' Increasing Cyber Attack Capabilities Dontestic extremists conducting illegal acts to further their ideology particularly within the animal rights environmental and anarchist extremist movements likely will mature and expand their cyber attack capabilities with the aim of attacking targets in the United States Many extremists within these movements Page 61 of 73 SEW adhere to a nonviolent no harm doctrine and prefer to illegally attack the nancial stability of businesses and associated operations in order to force the targeted organization to abandon activities that the extremists deem objectionable 248 Cyber attacks offer the potential for economic damage typically they are individually initiated anonymous in nature and perceived to be nonviolent aligning well with the ideological beliefs strategic objectives and nonviolent tactics of many members Furthermore lone actors and small cells can conduct highly effective cyber attacks which is consistent with the strategy of leaderless resistance that many domestic extremists embrace 49 The Rise of Violent Western Jihadist Internet Propagandists and Ideologues As technologically savvy terrorist af liates mature their capabilities control over dissemination distribution and ideology could potentially become increasingly decentralized with violent Western extremists gaining greater in uence over violent jihadis messaging U S -based pr0pagandists and ideologues will likely begin to emerge at a greater level of sophistication during the next ve years possibly shifting from propaganda distribution and translation to becoming ideological gureheads inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and in uential gures abroad ml - The impending release or repatriation of Guantanamo Bay detainees to Western countries could create opportunities for terrorist affiliates to use their imprisonment as a prepaganda and recruitment tool aimed at Western audiences Some detainees may still adhere to violent jihadist ideologies or have adopted them during imprisonment Fear of re-imprisonment could dissuade some from engaging directly in violence but participating in online propaganda would provide them the opportunity to support terrorist movements without great risk of re-imprisonment Those released repatriated or imprisoned in Western or English-speaking countries could be bolstered by the street cred gained from imprisonment at Guantanamo possibly permitting their propaganda to have greater in uence Mahdi Ghazali a k a Abu-Suhaib al-Jaza iri a Sweden-based former Guantanamo detainee was interviewed in a video posted on a Sala -jihadist Web site in September 2008 Ghazali described his imprisonment and how others claimed they were tortured and subjected to abuse 253 Former detainees Abu Sufyan al-Azdi al Shahri and Abu al-Hareth Muhammad al-Ou resumed terrorist activities with al-Qa ida in the Arabian Peninsula upon their release from Guantanamo A video released in January 2009 featured both men detailing how imprisonment strengthened their desire to Page 62 of 73 An Act To Provide for the Implementation of the Recommendations of the National Commission on Terrorist Acts Upon the United States BriefTitle Implementing Recommendations of the 1 Commission Act of2007 PL 110-53 3 Aug 2007 United States Statutes at Large 127 2007 2401 2 Outbreak of Swine-Origin In uenza A H1N1 Virus Infection Mexico March- --April 2009 accessed 1 June 2009 Swine In uenza A Infection in Two Children Southern California March April 2009 accessed I June 2009 4 UT DOE The Smart Grid An Introduction 28 October 2008 it Time How Vulnerable is the Power Grid 15 April 2009 6 65- U S v Dennis Mahon and Daniel Mahon U S District Court of Arizona No CR 090712 PHX DGC ECV Indictment Filed 16 June 2009 7 Bi-Associated Press Feds disrupt plot to assassinate Obama 28 October 2008 accessed 27 July 2009 a UT Obama urges vigilance against prejudice in shooting s wake 1 1 June 2009 accessed 27 Jul 2009 v ennis a on an ante ahon U S District Court of Arizona No CR 090712 PHX DGC ECV Indictment Filed 16 June 2009 Los Angeles Joint Regional Intelligence Center Recent Shooting Highlight Challenges of Detecting Deterring and Interdicting Lone Wolves 23 June 2009 '3 DJ-CNN Man Charged with Murder in Kansas Doctor's Murder 2 June 2009 afcessed 15 June 2009 ios ingeles Iomt legtonal intelligence Center Recent Shooting Highlight Challenges of Detecting Deterring and Interdicting Lone Wolves 23 June 2009 l6111' Anti-Defamation League White Supremacists Celebrate Holocaust Museum Shooter as a Martyr and Hero 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the Development of Al Qaida Past Present and Future March 2008 a - ae a The Islamic Jihad Union and the Internationalization of 9 May 2009 Page 73 of 73                     National Security Archive    Suite 701  Gelman Library  The George Washington University    2130 H Street  NW  Washington  D C  20037    Phone  202 994‐7000  Fax  202 994‐7005  nsarchiv@gwu edu