r----- --•·- - ----- No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 1 W -------·-------- - - i Central Intelligence Agency Directorate of Intelligence _15 July 1977 The Evolution of Soviet Reaction to Dissent Stimrriary After the signing of the Helsinki accords several developments converged to heighten the concern of Soviet authorities about dissent in their society --The human rights provisions of Basket III became a rallying point for Soviet and East European dissidents --The Eurocommunists became much more critical of Soviet internal repression --Persistent food shortages in the Soviet Union resulted in isolated instances of active protest on a mass level The current crackdown against dissidents is the endproduct of a gradual growth in the Soviet regime's anxiety over these related pressures The initiation of the crack down although not its present scope predates the change in US administrations The initial impulse for it was · probably the desire to silence the dissidents before the Belgrade review conference The new US administration's public defense of So¥iet dissidents apparently did reinforce and intensify Soviet anxieties The net effect was to impel the leadership increasingly to conclude that harsher measures against dissidents were required The current campaign against dissidents is in part related to irritation over the lack of progress in other areas of US-Soviet relations as well as to the Soviets' desire to keep dissent closely controlled during the Belgrade conference At the same time the more defensive and pugnacious tone of Soviet policy both externally and internally may also reflect aggravated tensions within the Soviet leadership Recent policy difficulties may have strengthened the arguments of those leaders somewhat less inclined to conciliate the regime's opponents both at home and abroad RPM 77-10184 SECRET No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 I 25X1 •r -- ·--- - No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 1011 ·· --Central Intelligence Agency Directorate of Intelligence 15 July 1977 The Evolution of Soviet Reaction to Disse·nt When the Soviets signed the CSCE accords in August 1975 they took a calculated risk that their acceptance of the human rights provisions of Basket III would not create serious internal difficulties for them After Helsinki and especially during the last year however several developments heightened the concern of Soviet authorities about dissent in their society This increased anxiety has been gradually translated into increasingly tough stands on issues of ideology and social control and has produced the current crackdown on internal dissent 25X1 25X1 The author of this paper is -- USSR Division Office of Regional and PolitiaaZ Analysis who may be reached for comments or questions on RPM 77-10184 25X1 SECRET ' I No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 • bCJ lff I I • 25X1 --- ' The Dissident Problem A CSCE A Rallying Point for Soviet Dissidents The human rights provisions of Basket III provided a common ground for Soviet dissidents with a wide range of views and concerns thus raising the specter for the first time in many years of a unified 11 opposition 11 The CSCE monitoring groupj the most important dissident group to emerge in the Soviet Union since Helsinki was organized by physicist Yury Orlov in Moscow in May 1976 and soon sprouted regional branches in the Ukraine Lithuania Armenia Georgia and Leningrad These branches were tiny and the degree of actual coordination that existed between them is not known but the emergence of a dissident organization with links throughout the country was unique ·in recent Soviet history More important the CSCE monitoring group by espousing the causes of a wide variety of aggrieved religious and national minorities established some claim to being the center of a broader protest movement Although this incipient support of religious and national minorities in itself potentially provided a mass base for human rights activism the intellectual dissidents remain estranged from the bulk of the working class population Working class discontent which has basically economic rather than political objectives thus did not converge with intellectual dissent B Food Shortages and Unrest Nonetheless official apprehension that such a convergence could take place has evidently grown since the bad harvest of 1975 Although consumerism is not a potent political force in the Soviet Union as it is in some East European countries the Soviet population has come to expect a gradual improvement in the standard of living The food shortages caused widespread grumbling and over the last year and a half there have been reports and rumors of a number of instances of active unrest and protest -225X1 SECRET i No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 • Ni ShLRtT --··· ·· ·- ·······-·· •· ··• ·-·-·····--· 25X1 J We know that last winter the Soviet leader s _ was quite worried about__ the mood in tl' e count ry_J I I I I L •_ · ·· ·· ···············- ···· I Although the recent instances of violence some of them related to food shortages were not perpetrated by human rights activists the Soviet leadership may not always distinguish clearly between different sources of protest Some reporting suggests that Soviet offic ials may vaguely sense some connection between intellectual 4 _l l t and popular discontent l _ ___ - - -- - · _J - - -- - ----c -- -- ---- --- Soviet leadership r eared that easing restrictions on dissidents could abet · a trend of criticism in the country that could create an explosive climate C Under Attack From the Eurocommunists Since early 1976 the Eurocommunists including ' the once docile French Communist Party became more openly critical of the Soviet Union than at any time since the aftermath of the invasion of Czechoslovakia The Spanish Party has gone furthest but the iarger French and Italian parties pose the more serious problem for the Soviets From the Soviet perspective the chief danger implicit in Eurocomrnunism is not that it has diminish d Soviet influence in West European Communist parties but that it offers a Marxist alternative to the Soviet model in Eastern Europe and perhaps ultimately within the Soviet Un i on itself Moscow has thus been upset by Eurocommunist support to dissidents in Eastern Europe and the USSR Particularly annoying to the Soviets in this regard was an unprecedented visit in late December of an Italian Communist delegation to dissident Soviet Marxist Roy Medvedev in Moscow The Italians presented Medvedev with an Italian edition of one of his books and reportedly asked him to write articles for an Italian party historical journal -325X1 ·-·- - - - EC RE ' -- - i No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10- 10-8 - f No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 D 25X1 Unrest in Eastern Europe At the same time CSCE had a catalytic effect on East European dissent which became a movement cutting across national borders Dissidents from different East European countries have reportedly coordinated their activities to a limited degree Last winter some Soviet leaders were evidently genuinely alarmed that post-Helsinki conditions were creating an unstable situation in Eastern Europe especially in Poland and to a lesser degree in East Germany and Czechoslovakia The growth of unrest in Eastern Europe increased chronic Soviet fears of a spillover into the Soviet Union itself Soviet authorities have always been alert to the danger of a political vi r us from Eastern Europe spreading into the polyglot boiderlands of the Soviet Union which have historically been susceptible to influences from that quarter The fear of such a domino-effect was evidently a factor in the Soviet decision to invade Czechoslovakia in 1968 E The US Human Rights Initiative The new US administration's human rights campaign and especially the personal involvement of President Carter in public appeals ori behalf of Soviet dissidents further disturbed Soviet authorities Many Soviet officials already fearful · of being put in the dock at Belgrade reportedly regarded the campaign as a deliberate attempt at subversion by the US At the same time US protests about Soviet repressions temporarily emboldened Soviet d issidents to make more vigorous protests and to channel their appeals directly to the US administration II The Soviet Response It is largely s a response to all these related pr ssures that the current crackdown against dissidents must be seen It is clear that at least the initiation of the crackdown although not its present scope predates the change in US administrations The original factor of greatest importance in the minds of the Soviet leaders at the -425X1 SECRET '----- _ __ _ __ _ _N_o_O _ bjection - - - - -- - -- - ___J TC _Q l _ssification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 Iii No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 K l ff outset of the crac down was probably the desire to clean house and silence the dissidents before the Belgrade review conference was convened Indeed some dissidents have charged that the climate in the Soviet Union deteriorated immediately after and as a direct result of th_e__ s i gning of the Helsinki accords -- -- ---c- mong others claimed that cond1t1ons 1nhis prison tangibly worsened after Helsinki In 1976 there were a few trials of dissidents balanced by oc asional regime conciliatory gestures · · 25X1 25X1 The first clear evidence that a crackdown might be underway did not come however until late December 1976 seven months after the formation of the Orlov group in Moscow In December Soviet authorities moved in a limited way against the CSCE monitoring group by conducting searches of apartments of the members of its subgroup in the Ukraine But there is no ev1dence to indicate that at this early date the Soviets intended the crackdown to assume the major proportions it did in the spring Rather it seems likely that they intended to continue carrot and stick tactics aimed at controlling dissent by a careful combination of coercive and conciliatory measures while holding in reserve the option of intensifying repression if circumstances warranted The new US administration's public defense of Soviet dissidents apparently was a major factor which reinforced and exacerbated the related Soviet anxieties about the coming Belgrade CSCE meet i ng the situatidn in Eastern Europei the behavior of the Eurocommunists and the food situation at home The net effect was to impel the leadership increasingly to conclude that harsher measures against the dissidents were required Since February the Soviets have moved to suppress the Orlov group and its regional subgroups by arresting leading memb e rs and encouraging others to emigrate Moreover in the spring the Soviets began to make greater and greater efforts to l i mit the access of Westerners in Moscow to the dissident community and• to link the dissidents with espionage activities Two incidents in June were particularly indicative of the changed atmosphere in Moscow the interrogation of newsman Robert Toth the first such case in the detente era and the surfacing of further suggestions that dissident Shcharansky is under investigation for treason If Soviet authorities do charge him with treason Shcharansky -525X1 SECRET I No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 ---- - ----- · --·-···- No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 • c --- ·-- -KL1 25X1 __ may become the first intellectual diss1dent since Stalin's day to be tried for this serious crime Meanwhile since Toth's departure the Soviet media have expanded insinua tions that he was engaged in espionage Conclusions The Soviets originally believed that they could afford to permit their citizens greater contact with the West or they would hever have signed the Helsinki accords allowed greater movement between East and West Germany or stopped jamming some Western broadcasts to the Soviet Union in 1973 The events of the last year however h ve given them pause and reason to reassess their policies Many Soviet officials have probably de ided that acquiescence on Basket III was a mistake Objectively Soviet dissent does not appear to pose a serious threat to the Soviet system but Soviet officials evidently perceive a greater danger than exists in fact Both Russian history and Leninist ideology impel them to exaggerate the potential importance of opposing groups however small They h ve always been preoccupied with pro 1 lems of control The importance that the leadership attaches to dissent can be seen by the fact that decisions about indi · vidual dissidents are sometimes made at the Politburo level It is not merely intellectual dissent that disturbs the Soviets They fear that the freer movement of people and ideas'' which they conceded on paper at Helsinki and which to a certain extent the circumstances of a modern technological world force upon them will open their society to a whole host of ideas and influences from the West that are in their view not only politically subversive but socially disruptive and morally unhealthy Identifying Western concepts of liberty with license they are apprehensive that extensive contact with the decadent West will expose the Soviet people not only to ali n political ideas but also to crime terrorism pornography and drugs which could combine to produce a general breakdown of order and discipline To the extent that they are concerned about the stagnation of their economy the Soviets may also fear that consumer dissatisfaction will become a more serious political problem in future years -625X1 SECRET i No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10- 10-8 I No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 • N --- W t l W a o L AI -- L_ · - - - - - - _ J 25X1 In view of the problems the Soviets confronted in the winter and early spring some sort of domestic crackdown was to be expected The intensity and duration of the Soviet response however is not entirely explained by objective circumstances Some of the pressures on the Soviets in fact seem to have diminished since the FebruaryMarch period The tense situation in Eastern Europe has eased and the food supply in the Soviet Union itself while still a subject of considerable concern seems to have improved somewhat Meanwhile Soviet attempts to muffle internal and external criticism have paid off to a considerable extent Although occasional outbursts of protest continue to take place the more prominent dissidents have been effectively silenced Nevertheless Soviet repression of dissent continues to intensify It is true that even now the picture is not one 0£ unrelieved repression Two prominent Jewish activists for example were recently allowed to emigrate And Orlov the key figure in post-Helsinki dissent has been charged with the relatively minor offense of anti-Soviet activity There are still some restraints on Soviet behavior toward dissidents the Soviet leadership has no desire if indeed it has the power to move in the direction of reinstitut ing the Stalinist terror apparatus Nevertheless the current campaign against dissent in the Soviet Union has become the toughest of this decade This increase in the relative harshness of Soviet policy is to some extent a natural partner of the more defensive and pugnacious tone the Soviets have displayed recently in many facets of foreign policy--particularly regarding the Eurocommunists and the United States The recent expansion of Soviet actions against dissidents is doubtless thus partially related to irritation over the lack of progress in other areas of US-Soviet relations as well as to the Soviets' desire to keep dissent closely controlled during the Belgrade review conference At the same time the exaggerated sensitivity of Soviet policy both externally and internally may also reflect aggravated leadership tensions A confluence of policy difficulties coming at a time when Brezhnev's health is uncertain may have strengthened the arguments of those within the leadership somewhat less inclined to conciliate the regime's opponents both at home and abroad -725X1 i No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 • • No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 25X1 SECRET CHRONOLOGY August 1975 CSCE accbrd signed 1976 A few tr1als of ·less well-known dissidents continue despite ·Helsinki •ccords · Form tiori··· of ·sovie GSGE monitoring gtbup Apartment searches of members pf CSCE moni tor'in·g groups- in Kiev visit of Italian communists to dissident Roy· Medvedev in Moscow May 1976 -- late December ·1976 ' - - · Three bomb explosions in Moscow--Moscow rumors attribute to discontent over food shortages January 8 1977 ✓February - 3 1977 Solzhenitsyn associate Aleksandr Ginzburg detained in Moscow Two Ukrainian monitors of CSCE detained in Kiev February 10 1977 Yury Orlov chairman of CSCE monitoring group detained in Moscow March 2 1977 Leaders of French Italian and Spanish communist parties meet in Madrid in the first summit of Eurocommunist leaders March 4 1977 Izvestia article charging Jewish refusnik Shcharansky and others by name with working for CIA three U S Embassy officers charged by name with having recruited them March 13 1977 Pravda article warned that the human rights issue could disrupt Secretary of State Vance's impending visit to Moscow · 25X1 SECRET I I No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 i I • • No Objection To Declassification 2008 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 •• I 25X1 SECRET March lS 1977 Shcharansky arrested March 16 197 7 Joint press conference with western· newsmen held by represent4tives of broad spectrum of diss·ent - -intellectuals Jewish refusniks Pentecostals CSCE monitori g group and others · •· I I I - - •' Soviet-US talks on SALT ope ed·· i March 28 1977 • • - • • · - •• __ ·- - · - • ·- · M ow · - ·· · ' - · - · 7' ' - - · - --- - · ·• - Con erence in Prague o £ Soviet·• · East · -- · • - Europe an and West Euro p ean--com muhis·t partif s · - ··· Soviet effort ·-to ·establ sh comm on line · t notably s·uccessful · · · · · ·· - · ·· · ·· · · · · ··· April 27-2-9 1977 - • · ' l • • - • • - ·-- •• • • - · · - J • • _ - · ·· - -- ·- rune I 197-T Sh ·haran- ky t_s parents repor dly -· oti'fied° · · · · _ · that treason -charges bein·g prepared against · · · ·· - - · _ · · ·• · ·· h 1m June 11 1977 Los Angeles Times correspondent RobeTt Toth questionea by XGB for allegedly accepting state secrets on parapsychology from Jewish refusnik Valery Petyukov June 15 1977 Belgrade reView conference on CSCE opened June 17 1977 Toth permitted to leav the Sovie t Union June 27 1977 6rlov cnarged with anti-Soviet- act'i-ri ty·- maximum penalty three years prison July 4 1977 Ginibu rg repQrtedly charged with anti Soviet propaganda- - third ttoffense maximum pe nal ty up to seven years prison p us five internal exile July 12 1977 TASS statement charged Toth used press card as cover for intelligence work hinted at disclosures to come Petyukov reportedly told no action to be taken agai st him because he had cooperated in exposing an arch-intelligence agent · I I 25X1 r- - - - SECRET No Objection To Oeclassiffcation 200 3 04 29 NLC-6-78-10-10-8 1