1973-5-10 British_Strategic_Nuclear 1973-5-10 UK To ti -· 10 h '11973 E R SANITIZED COPY p tl'JJt'it-- - BRITISH STRATEGIC NUCLEAR BETERRENT #¼¦Ï§Å¤˟Æн‡Ñ—¢$’˟µÛ“®˜ˆ¾˟”™Òš¿À›¶Ú˟ ÃʕɅPƚă˟ Œ´˟– ūšǣĚ ˟ ÓŸ1˟ ȏƌʍə˟£nDZa ţ ǍıC ˟ ʩ LŹ˟ ɚ ą-˟ @IJˁȐ˟ ɻ˂ ˟ ɼijȑ ˟ ƍM˟ ˟ ƎůĴ ĵC Ķ˟ Ƽˀ˟ DzŤ˟ɽķ˟ Ȓĸ@ìɛƏʛĹ˟ 33Šďʎʜ0ǔĺíȯ˟ ˟Ž Ȱ5˟°îȓ ˟ª˟ ˟ ÜǕŪɸĻğ˟Ç ɜļȱ˟ ±ïȔƷ˟$Ljlj˟ źĽ Q˟ Ų ǯȲɝ˟ ʑĐŻ˟ ˟Ġ ťľǖđĿq˟ Ô ŀ˟ oȪƐS ȳż˟  ʝ ȭ Ǘɞ˟ŽðYŁ˟ L ˟ ȕ˟Ćł ǘ˟ƤǬ EȖA ġ˟ɾ ɟ˟ 7 H ˟ 8N˟ ŃYƵĢ ǙĒń˟ ɿñ ˟ʀ ˟ÁX Pȴ ĄƬM˟ ˟ b ƽdzȅƥǭ4˟ɠŅȗAƱǚ˃Ƒ˟ d ǛģǴ˄ëƋ ȵȆžņȘƒēe˟ Ĥ _Ţ Ĕ˅ȶ˟ ș ʚ ˟ % OĕEZ ˟ • ˟È 6 ȷ9ǜų Ț˟ Ɠȸf˟ ſ ZŇʞǵIg˟ X ĥ-ȹɡ ǶĦ˟ɢ ʳ ˟ ʴ ʟň˟ òƔ ˟ ɺƉÿ ʵ6 ˟ ț ħ˟ ƀ ˟ Ė ǝŰ4W ȜĀ Ǟ˟ ǷŦ ˟ʁ ˟ÉՉ¡˟Ǹȝ˟ÊݸœÂ˟Š­Ö¯·¹ž 'SANITIZED r c Fe óȞƁʼn ˟ʶʣFʘnj ˟ ôx ˟ ėȟŊ Ƴć ƾƦɹʫ˟ ˟ʂȠ ŋ˟ɣ ˟ 2Fʒȡ˟ Ⱥ˟ õ Ĩ˟ʃöɤ ˟Ƃ ˟ ʤ÷Ȼ ƕǎ‚ƴŌ ȼōĩ˟ĈʬlrʄŎ˟ ȽʓȇŏȫNjGȢˆˇɥ ŧ˟ ä -l blU J 3 b 6 ÞǟƖ ˈĪ˟ ËS Tˉˊ˟ ² Ƹ˟ߨ˟ʥ ƃŐ ˋh˟ ʷʲ ¥ Ⱦ˟ H Ȯ Jƹȿ˟ʸƄ ʠ ˟ĉő ǰ˟ ƺ ˟ ǹ˟ BȈƿʭ˟ ɦ7 ɧi˟ Ɨ ˟ƈƭɀ˟ ȉ9 ˌs˟ ‘ʔɁN Ă˟ ˍˎˏƘǠ ˟‹#³˟īŒ€ːǡĘ ɂ˟ ʪʅ˟ ˟Ǐ ɃɄƯ ˟ʹ ȣ˟ƮƊ t å ęøȊùĊƧDž ɨ ˟ 2˟ ʆ ˟àǢƙ ˟ ʾˑɩ O˟̺˒«×˓ ˔ ê 4 ©æɪ˟ƛ ˟pǤ ˕ȤɆc ǺĬ˟' ƅ ɫ˟ʐ ˟áDƜUœ˖˟ ɇɬā ŔQ˟ Ɉ˟ T ƻ Ǯ˟yz˟ʮ ȥɉ˟ ç˟ȋJ Ŵƒ˗Ɋ ŬKǻǐ˟ ʌŕ˟ŮƝ„ɋɭ˟ɮŖɌɯ˟űȦƞǥŵ˟ Ũ˟ʇě˟ B8ɍɎƨ ˟ɰǼʺʈ è˟Ĝʖȧ…ŗǦ ˟ ɏV Ŷ ˟ ʦƆ K ˟ U5Ř˟ u It is understood that the United States has taken 12 years to progress from the first te t firing of the missile to the current stage where the SPRINT system is only nearing corripletion around one of the United States Í»ÄØ˟ ɐ ɱřǑ˟Ɵ ˟ǽǧǀʯ˟Ǩ˘ú† ŷ˟ ĝ ƶȌǁ Ȏ ˟ ûIǾʙ ĭ˟ǿǩŚ˟ ˙ũ ˟ ʉ˚˟ âǪ ɲ Į˟Îɳ V ɑ'˟ MINUTEMAN silo locations %¬ãٟw˟ ɒ G˟džȃ ʏ ǫɓév˟ develop a similar system they would b unlikely to be able to do so in a ǂ ˟ƠơƢċ NJưĞʡ ˟ʊü j˟ Ʃŭ˟˛Ƈś˟˜ʗɔɘƪ DR˟ʧŜȨ0˟ ɴ ˟ʻ˟ įŝʢʿLJȄȍ˟ ý˟ ɕ Ǔƫ ȩ˟ ɖʰɗɵ ǒk˟ ʋ1ʱʼʨ ˝˞ ˟ČŞ˟ WȬƲǃƣ şDŽ mɶ ˟č ˟ þĎ ʽɷȀ˟ İȁ˟ RȂ˟ ˟ ˟ It is believed that if the Russians were to · DECLASSIFIED E O 129581 as amend ed Sect 3 5 Lf J CI MITl7i n f' ' PV By oz 5 1' ' J'MR pe - JIU • 3_3 1 1 1 l l b e HY- lf 111if1oio NARA Date r o • i J -1- _ - o - •• r· - It is believed therefore that the earliest th at such a system could ap ear would be a r ound 1980 though this would ɰ Ū ɰ #ǡɰ 7 ŴEÿa êjɰ ȤĀ Ķƪ gɰ k ŊÄwȊɰȥāɰ ƾ FĂTȋ r equire the Russians to have taken a decision some time ago to deploy and Ǣ Ńɰ Éɰ ¬ɓǣȌăŻɰ Ô Ť8ɰ ƫƬĄ ƿɰ ɦ ɰÏąɰ 2 ƞ ɰ „1ɰ ȦNȵĸɧɰ ŋōǤɰ ɉ ȶūëɰ de ve l op i t an d that a more realistic d ate might b e several yea r s later RĆƼ Ŏǀćɰ ȧĈɰ  ǥG Ǧɰ ɰń ȿĉɰ ȍ ũĊƈɰ ɰ8ċç#ǧ Ɖɰ żČɰ ȰJɨɰ 4Ĺ ɰ Y ɰ ìčƭŬƟɔɰ íɰ î ɀ ɰŏ …ɰ Æ'ïɰ ȣ­ ɰ®ɰŽO ɰ ǁ 3źFǨȱÕɰ ð¯V ɰɩŐĺŅȎɰ7Ď ɰ ǩ Ɂďǂ4 ɰɕĐ°ǃǪɰ † ȏ DŽl 5 matter of speculation ñ ɂĒ ƮžēƋȒɰ IJɰȪ oɰƯLj Ĕ' ɰˆ‹–ɰ3 ĕÈɰò įƌÖĖǭɰ × ȓ óɰ 'ɰ —OǮØ ɊɰŒTɰ ɰ the cities of Western Russia including Leningrad and Kiev On the other hand they could partially replace the present system by a terminal ƤeȠ Ǐɰ defence which would only protect a very limited area around central ¹ƒ9hɰ ȘAĜ ɰ Qȷůùɰ ºȲɫŷ ɰ ǐ Ƴ ÃÜĝɰ ɰ ǑɬǸ Mșɰ ǹ ǺW Kɰ Ðəɰ ɰ ȚĞRƆŦ»Hɰ Moscow úğ ıƓ Ġrɰ ɋʼnşÝņɰ Ɍ %ûɰ %ɚɰƴ NVġÞɭɰ ɰ aĢ ɜɰHEƁɥģ9ɰ ǒĤ ɰ f - üɰ ß Ɣț Űɰ ˜ ǻà ɍsɰ On the one h and the Russians could rest entirely on improvements to the present system to extend its coverage to nearly all ſ²ȔW Sɰ éijɰ ǯư Ù %³ ɞpɰ › ɰ ȫ ɰƠɤ ɰ@Ì ɰ Ȭ ɰ¢Ƚǰ´œ µɰ Ú Ȼ ŭôɰ lj DZȕɰ ƍ Ţ Ůɖ ơƎɰŔ ƱªNJ«ƢɃ ƀ ƏZDzɰ Ȗƣɰ ȭ ɰƲNjė Xɰ dzɗǴX ǟxɰ Pɰ ɒ ĘLõɟɰŕYǵɰ Û Ʉęnj¶Ļ ɰ ȗ ɰƐĚ·Ǎ’ɘɰ ¸ŵŶɰ Ȯěɰ řȡ$ Uɰ Ĵɰ© Ƕ Ǟɰ 0-ɪǷ$6ɰŖƑ ŌöDťļɰ ” MšƝĽǎ ÷ɰËøɰ“‘İɅqɰ E ven within the constr aints of the ABM Treaty future Russian development of the present ABM area defences centred on Moscow is a nɰ bBȴţB ɰ Ȩ ɰ Ɗǫ Dž±Š ȐǬɰ P ɰ ȩđɰ ‡Š•ɰ ¦dž ȑcɰ ķ LJ ɰ ¡ ő ƛɰ mɰ ·· - _ - • ' l E R §Ň Sĥɰ Ƶɰ Ñ ȉŚ¼ɰ y Ǔɰ ǔ ½ @Źƕľɰ 5ɰŧ ýĿƂĦ ɰ ƖɰɎň¾Ȝɰȯħɰ0ȸǼǽC5ɝǾɰ There is no basis _fo r r eaching a judgment on what the Russians will actually do b$Ÿ ɰ¿áȢ_2 űĵɰ tɰ I 'SANITIZED Pe I« 3-3 • 1 • 7 Neither the configuration of the United Kingdom warheads nor the higher speed during re - entry ·of the United States Mark III warhead are believed to be relevant SANITIZED experts agree that the only way to be sure of penetrating defences is by exhaustion '$ -- l 'Q' -i ' i 4'i s lo that is by providing more incoming warheads than the number of available that two SPRINT type missiles could counter any incOming warhead whether it was SUPER ANTELOPE STAG or United States Mark Ill The superiority of the Mark Ill against SPRINT type terminal defences derives from the· fact that within the atmosphere the incoming missile has ten warhea s rather than two in the case of SUPER ANTELOPE and STAG This is the background to the British understanding that the American side consider the United States Mark Ill warhead on a de - MIRVed POSEIDON missile to be a much more cost effective solution for the United Kingdom than STAG i e a SUPER ANTELOPE warhead on a de - MIRVed POSEIDON missile Ÿœ¤Œšz™ÀǕŨɰ ƶǖƥɈþĨǿɰ Íɰ ÁȹȝƦɮ #âɰC ȀȺ‚Î ĩɰ ŀ ŝ ȁ ZɰƷƧȂȃDÒŲ ɰɠǠ -Ǘ dɰ £_ ȄŗÇƜɰ ǘƇGLÅIɰ èŞ Ɨ Īȅiɰ uɏ ī Ȇɰ ƨɰ ƸǙ ɆŘ Ĭɡɰȇ Aɰ ɰ ã ƹ ÓśIŜȟcɰƃɰ¥¨‰Žɰ ɐƩ ɰǚ ƽȼ Ǜ ɰ1ä U ɛɰ ÊƘ ɰȳKĭɰ åƺƙȈȾ ŁɰɢĮɑ ǜ6ɰ ɇ ųQƻƄ ƚȞɰ €ƒžłǝ Jƅævɰ ɣ ɯɰ -i - t he r eason being that for not very much greater cost than for STAG POSEIDON Ma r k Ill provides an automatic insurance against possible future Russian terminal defences whereas to p r ovide such a capability i Ijl STAG would require a costly and time consuming extra development programme -Z- fr l f i_ ··i - i' - Ell E R _' ' ·l Maintenance Support for POLARIS and POSEIDON Missiles 8 èĨ2 ŽȖ ̟ ċ‡ȺȻ ɐʞ̟Ʃ w̟ øôçÐĊâČ̟ łŭ̟¢ù%č×GF%ì̟ éǎɭ ǣn ɮ̟ À£D̟ ±̟ǏȎȼ ɑ ' ̟È̉œʟȬw̟ǐ̟̊ ´Eɯ 1 Ʊ̟ ʹ ̟ ǺÌ ǑŠ ̟ Ŕ ɰ ɱ̟ ơ̟ĎĞHØć Ĥ ¤#óěÙä úÝ̟ Ń ̟ û ď áãõíµêĩɒǴ̟DZ̟ Īɲ̟ Ňžſ ̟ _ ̟Ɍ˒ ɳ€h ă®¯̟ȭ ̟ ǻ - ɴˎŕ̟ suppor t for American missiles In the case of SUPER ANTE L OPE we have assumed that the' P OLARIS A3T missile will be phased out of United ɵ   ̟Ǥ ɓ̟#Ȕ­ ɔ0Ŗń̟ ȏǒɶɷh6ƀɸ̟̋ $t̟ ʺƁ̟ ŗĿɹƂ̟ Ƣ̟ĐğüÚĈ̟°ĜÛå%ý ̟ˬ ̟ ƺPˤ ̟ ĻDɺɻ˜rƃŮ̟ ʻī…̟† ̟́þöæÍĉàđ̟ ̌¼ĝ̟ ȕɼ ǥȆƄ̟ ŒǓjȇ̟ň ̟Ƚ̍Ĭɽ T̟Ȯ˓ʠ̟ ƣ̟Ġȗ0ʡ ̟ States Navy service by about 1983 but that thereafter we shall be able to obtain with United States helpJ continuing logistic support for the missile I ' ɾ̟îJ‹C̟ Ē ˪Řƅ̟ ʼnC̟̎Ŋĭ˔ʢ̟ ·ÂÁ̏ʣ̟ ŋ@ ’̟ʼ ̟ ɕ Į² ɖ̟ ˭ ̟ ɿ įp5̟ ̟ ŀ j ̟  ̟ ŌʤŁȨ¥̟ ǯʽ̟ ġȘ0 ̟ Iʥ „Ɔ ̟ kȾš̟ ̐ ˑ¡t-̟Ǽ Ʋ ʀ Ǯř̟ ˆȿɀ ̟ ̟ʾ ̟Ȑ ʁʂiȈ ̟ at a cost which would naturally be increased by the fact that the necessary ʦ̟İ̟ Śȯʃʧ̟ˮnjŪ̟˴ ̑X̟ ľʨ˕ɗ 77˷̟ ǔșśɘ KʄƇů̟ō˸̟ ʩƻ ̟ É Ŝ‚̟ ̒ ̟ʿ ̟ ŝƈʅʆ ˹̟ facilities would be kept going -uniquely for our purposes ĽQa7a†3Ɖ ̟ B @l ̟ ̟ǵ Ɂʪ̟Ƴ 9ƴ̟̈ˣǦ“ɍºƊm˺̟Z ə̟ ˖ɚ̟Ÿ ɛɂ ƭ ē¦̟ POSEIDON Mark Ill we have assumed that we can rely on keeping ¹Ą̟ˀ ̟ Ş ʇ ̟ ȰƤ̟ special costs on account of uniqueness  ‡4ű̟ŏƎ̟ ˥ ˽̟ 5ɅƦA5̟ Zȹ̖ ̟ ʊɄƍŠǧ'Ǿ̟ š ʮ ̟ Ȟ̟ijŢ ą˞ ̟ ƥ̟˟92Ɏ˙ ȟ ʋ ¨̟ # # # # # # ɣd d ƿ̟ Ć Ʈ b Ȋʑ̟ ħxŬ3ʒ ų̟ ʱǀ ̟ ɏ˚ i Ȥ̟ ƨ̟ ǁ ̟ ǫǬ R ˆK4̟ĵyyEMu- ȪÆ ʲʓ̟ ˠȫŴ z̟˱ǂeS ̟ ˄ƒ̟ Ñɤǜʳ2 ̟ It would be v e ry helpful for us to know whether these assumptions are broadly consistent with current Ǹ8ȳŽ̟Bƾ ˁ ɞ̟ _ ̟ Nʌʍ»ȑɆˏ ̂ʎ̟”ĴɟƏ̟ ɠ Ųn˾̟ ţ 8 Ǘ YȠʯ̟˰ǘ˂̟ Ť‰ ťȡ ̟ #ȓ ɡǙŦ 8̟ɇǿŅ ̟ ˜ɢ©̟dzƐ̟ǚȢžʏƑ –̗ ̟ ȌƪƠ̟ Ǜȣ̟ ˃ ̟ Ģ9c T̟Ė„Nʰ ʐ̟ ñJ‹C̟ Ƨ̟ In the case of POSEIDON C3 in service up till about 1994 without having to incur any ÿ Ĕ GF̆ï̟¶ë Ƕ̟ĥɬ›̟ Œ ̟ƼLŠ ̟ıʈ ˝s Ű̟€ Lʫ̟̀ ̟ şM ̟ ̓ǽ˻̟ ȱȚ̟ǷƋY ǕțƵ̟ Ā ĕ $Õ ð̟ Ó½̟ b ̟ ʉƌɜ˫̔ ̟˗Ƀ̟ ʬ16l̟ ̕Ŏ A ̟¸ÃÄ¿̟˯ǖʭƽȲ˘ƒ̟ IJ˩eȜƶ̟ ‚ §Ħ1 Q ɝ̟ ȝ˼̟ Amer_ican plans for the in-service life in the Uni t ed States Navy of 'SANITIZED f S c 3-3 1 k • -• • G POLARIS A3T and P OSEIDON C3 respectively 9 British officials raised the question of the contractual arrange ents under which the British Government might purchase POSEIDON C3 missiles ̘ ˦Ɠɥ q uƒ̟ɫǝƷœǃʴ̟ɈˡxSNJ ʔƔ̟ H ėÜ$Ö ò̟ Ô¾̟ q ʕ ǞȀ ª ǟvż O U̟ ˅O ̟ Ǡ̟Ž@oU̟Őƕ̟ DŽȴ64˿̟ ʖǡ̙ Ê ̟˵ˆ̟ ˇ ̟Ȓ ̟ǭȩ̟ ȍǢū̟ ˈƖ̟ indicated that it would be wholly consistent with th e manner in which the āɦƗʗf ȥʵ̟DžĶŵ̟ ķ ǹ̚Ŷ̟ ư̛̟ ̟ŷcʘŧ̜ʙʚǨ ̝ʛ̟ ˳3ˉ̟ ̟ ģ ̟ß÷ȋĘ ̟ ő ̟ ņVȁƘṼ̟ that he should prefer to avo i d a new Sales Agr e ement and thus to u s e the ˊĸʶ̟dž ̟ LJȵAkŸ̟ɉ ɧ̟ ȶ•̟P˧ gW̟Ĺ̟Ȧ B̟ęļp ̟ ÎƸz ƙr ̟̄ vX̟ˋ ̟ ʷ ̟ ̞ ̟ ˌƚ̟ ˶ʜ f ƹ̟ ĂĚÏ̟ —˲ǍRNj̟ˍ ‘Òǰǩː ̟Þ ˨ƛËÇs ̟ ‰mŹ̟ ĺo ̟ ɊɨƜƫ ɩ™«̟ An important factor in assessing the relative costs of SUPER ANTELOPE and POSEIDON Mark III has b een the question of l ogistic ȉ…̟ ȷˢȂź̟̅ President had asked for the discussions with the White House to be handled· existing FSA which the British Government would also prefer be helpful if this could be confirmed ŒƝ̟LjƞȃɋƬ̇Ȅ̟Ǫ³̟ʸljgʝ̟ Ũȸ˛ȅŻ̟ÅƟ̟ ũ ȧƯɪDz W¬̟ ' i ·iji t l ' -3- $ANIT ZED Co'PV'' ¼ -3- It would