o s-o i i CLA3SIFIED S D J322Lr•fJ J J TE PEA 1 iH 1 Ecr · rr · 1 i • o • c - n ALL llf• J ll TlUI 'i - i • - • · · cr ·i- •J l EF E IJ I ' IJ'IKLA r r 1 'fiEP E m1 1t lt J 1 TiiEf l'l - cnr ' • Intelligence ASSCSSMENT U The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland An FBI Assessment April 15 2004 Pn parod by Derived from Multiple Sources Declassify on X1 I 3 s ' I 10 I '• o I Olt iJ I T1trrt1ri t Gro11 k K -3- I· l f 1 1 tiCilZS U U KEY JUl G IE' 'iTS TJ 'NF Al-Qa'ida and its affiliated groups n main thi Intelligence Community's top concern and as such its co1mtcrterrorism i fforts remain focused on the pm sibilitics that these groups may intlict signilicant casualties in the US with littl1 ur nu warning • TJ Ve judge that al-Qa'ida and its militant Islamic cohorts will tcnadously pursue a follow-on attack against the Ilomcland as i vid1 m cd by their continued attacks against US and Allied interests overseas 1Nr Our investigations reveal extensive support for tl mirbt causes in th US • The activities of these subjects in the uS center on fundraising recruitment or training We have found little evidence that these groups and individuals arc uctivcly cngaged in planning or currying out a terrorist attack I lowever these supporters could possibly he uscd to assist operatives in the US if they arc called upon • Recent s nsitivc reporting indicates that al-Qa' idu senior planners ovcrseas may have sent or may be planning to send operatives to the US to conduct terrorist operations The extensive network already in place inside the US used tu facilitate tlmdrnising recruitment and training for terrorist groups may play a kl y role in assisting any operatives sent to thi US to plan or conduct operations in CONUS NF Al-Qa'ida leadership will probably continue to favor spectacular Homeland attacks that meet scvi rul criteria high symbolism · · damn •e or maxi l 1 s s -'- H 11 LT ' 111C -5- tlZ U • TJ l f' The threat of dm111 stic h rrorists lau11ching large-scale mass casualty attacks is luw cum pared with that of international terrorist groups in part due to longstanding la v entbn cmcnt efforts against many lf these groups • Loosely afliliakd h rrorists and lune actors continue to pose a thn at tu the llomclund This tlm at is inherently Jiflit ult to i11tcnlict given the anonymity of individuals that frcqlll ntly act imlcpcmkntly in suppon of a larger causi •I jror domestic terrorists and criminals iii I 41 1·1 -7- us I --- t U i • TJ TJ 01 Oll'i Si_ Recent source reporting imJicall s that al-Qa'ida may be planning l 11 type attack in the United States possibly to disrupt thc 2004 Presidential Elccthms The operatives sutight for this allal 'k arc n ported to be non-Arabs and may be already in the United Staks s7ZNF While we remain concerned about thi thn at from skepcr cells operatives already present in the US scnsiti- c inll lligem c also indicates that al-Qu'ida may still be ath mpting tu laund1 its attacks against the Ilomcland from on rseas and that using aircraft as weapons may remain a lhvurcd tm til • Sensitive but uncorroborated rcpurting in Dcccmbcr 2003 suggcstl'd that alQa'ida was interested in targeting specific inh rnational flights arri 'ing in major GS dtics • While not din cteJ at the Ilomeland the I icathrow plot to use hijacked planes against UK targets was uncovered and halted in 2003 NF As stated above the US and its Allit s haw had considerable success ovcr the past two years in negatively impacting al-Qa'ida's command and control structure and methods ofoperation Nevertheless in addition to al-Qa'ida's demonstrated tactical adaptability its rnl'mbcrs' motivation and commitment to lethality remains as strung as ever and therefore we assess that the li vcl of threat has not diminished • With apparently extremely limited contact with its top leaders Usarna Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri al-Qa'ida appears to have become more dccc11trul izcd to include a diffuse network uf smaller opcrationally discrl 'tc organizations -9- II U Sunni E trcmist Presence in the United States NF Vith in Ihe U11 it1 d Stull s we haw d'l-l 1 k l ·c k ·di ln l 1 lm · 1-r i w i j l l U-l loUW w l u 1 - 111t 1 i --- al- a'ida assm iatl s amL'ur Sunni 1 xtrcmists S • • g U Few gruups ur individuals in the Unitcd States have din ct connections to cnior al-Qa'ida lcadl rship and or networks Of the US residents identified who huv1 had rnnlal I with OVL'r L•as al-Qa'ida members involved in opcratinns the possible upcrntiunal prcparntiuns Lmcovcrcd wi rc r1 lativi ly disorganizi d and appeared to be in the nascl nt stages uf plmming The vast majority of US cxtmnist activity appears 10 ci nll r on support such as training t'undraising rl cruitmcnt and propaganda Most of these activitii s an overt which incn ascs th1 possibility of attrm ling the att1 ntiun oflaw ------- l nforl'cml nt and n duccs the likclihoo o · · v · · · · · · · · · · · NF The threat from sympathetic individuals ucting alone or un behalfof a jihadist group inu ur cuusc will remain u concern for the foreseeable future due to the unpopularity of the US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and increasingly vitriolic rhetoric amongst Islamic extremist group leaders rogue clerics un l othl r jihadists -11- I U SECTIO J U Domestic 'l'crrorism lJ Domi stie Ti rrorist DT groups arc charactt rized as right wing kit wing m single issui spccial interest i xtrernists who arc based and operate soll ly within the US and its territories In addition to urguniz1 d groups and lnost ly affiliated movements lonl offenders or symputht tic individuals will continue tu n main a threat li r the foreseeable futur1 U ft I Right-Wing Extremists Tlwsc grnups adhere to a vuriety of ideologies and motivations but they commonly espouse some limn of antigovernmi nt sentiment and or racist philosophies Right wing 11 rrorists pose a significant threat due to their propensity for violenci The past sev1 ral yi ars have seen dccn asing violence from these groups and this may be attributed lo a combination of internal turmoil and increased law 1 nforccmcnl scrutiny Ilowcvcr many groups have increased their rhetoric and recruitment effbrts since Scptcmbl r 11 A U White Supremacists belil w in racial purity antVor the need to create an Aryan homdand'' in the US The white supremacy movement is extremely diverse and includes groups such as the National Alliance Aryan Nations the World Church of 1l11 Creator White Revolution llammcrskin Nation and various Ku Klux Klun KKK groups U U Wc assess white suprl macist groups do not have the ability to plan coordinate and Many white supremacists have interpreted the September 11 attacks as hcing Jircctly ·onnectcd to close US tics to lsrad White supremacist groups such as the National Alli mce and the World Church of the Creator also exploit rad al divisions and antiimmigration scntiment to boost rl cruitmcnt cxl cutc large-scale attacks in the Ilomclund therefore tl rrorist plots will likely cunti11u1 to be sporadic and relatively small in scope b 1 · E lJ lJ 8 U Militias udhcre in varying dcgrc1 s to a number of extremist beliefs huw1 wr the emphasis on the right tu hear arms separates them from other right-wing groups Militias frequently conuuct or engage in paramilitary training and many bclicw that l 'itizcnry must rc1m1in anm d lo thwart the New World Order u conspirncy theory whicl1 holds that one day the UN will lead a military coup against the nations of thl world to form a socialist One World Government • Our investigations indic 1tc that the militia move m nt is in a slate l 11' dcclinl Although thl ir capabilitil s cannot be discuuntl d WI assl ss militias an currently unlikely to cngttgc in acts ul' terrorism -16- • Our intelligence imlica e rnntinucd tic elopmcnt of t'orrnali1ed amm hist groups For example th Anan hist Black Cross Fedcration Tacticul kt'cnsc Cum us AUCF TDC has cmrrgcd as a promim nt and potentially inlcnt amm hist group Thi AfKFiTOC is a n volutionary anticapitalist gwup whose goals include the abolition or prisons the system uf laws and 1hc Capitalist State TJ IV Single-Issue Groups dhl rcnts seek to change policies related to a specific issue rather than causing swi cping social 1 hangcs These grnups arc our most active domestic h rrorist threat and we asscss thl y will contirn11 to cngagc in increasingly viuknt activitirs A U Animal Rights Groups Eco-Terrorists conduct sabotage vandalism or other criminal acts in furtherance of animal libcnttion'' or cnvironmentul protection We have launched hundreds of criminal investigations into incidents of arson theft and vandalism which have resulted in millions of dollars in property damage increascd security costs loss of revenue and setbacks in laboratory research • Animal rights eco-terrorists typically claim uftiliatiun with the Animal Liberation Front ALF Earth Liberation Front ELF or other clandestine movements Attacks arc uften preceded by survcillam e and olkn use improvised devices built from instructions posted on movement websites • Eco-terrorists have escalated their violent rhetoric and tactics and last August's ELF-related arson of a partially built condominium complex in California resulted in $30 - 50 million in damages • Similarly animal rights extrrmists have escalated their actions against Huntingdon Life Sciences 111 S a scientific research laboratory Al·tivists affiliated with Stop I luntingdon Animal Crudty SI IAC have engaged in a sustained campaign including bombings and vandalism targeting HI S's financial structure including insurers market makers suppliers and other business partners · 8 U Antiabortion Extremists represent a small minority of the overall antiabortion movcrncnt Medical personnel who perform ur assist in abortions as wi 11 as reproductive health care facilities will rcmain primary targets Additional targets may include individuals such as pro-choice activists who may he vicwed as opponents C U llurkth·ists an hackcr groups focused on social and political change Tl11 se groups arc cmcrging internationally and dorm stically Most hacktivist groups arc shonlivcd und arc l'ocuscd on propaganda rnthcr than scrious damages llowcvcr some groups arc well organized Ilacktivist groups arc cither issue orirnt1 d such as the Ni w Age E xtn mi ts and l lcctrn Ilippi1 s hu prutcsl against globalization nr politically motivatcd such as pro-lkijing C'hi111 sc nationalists pro-Serbian groups and hackti 'ists reacting to lsracli-Palestinian groups -18- L I X i S X $ s • tkl A member of the al•Z lrltuwi network assassinatiun ol' US diplomat Laurcnc1 -21- r·· 11 '11c y- _ lnl r his involv1 111cnt in the _ l lJ SECTION 5 i IJ q1NF Islamic Extremist Terrorism Tn•nds I i ' JJ ' ll J - NF The lntdligcm c Community assesses that al-Qa'ida has a penchant for n 'isiting past targets and wi II favor spectacular attacks that mc1 t scn ral of the t'ollowing criteria high symholie value · · swholo1 dcal trauma s U I U NF Tactical Trends of Al-Qa'ida Other Extremists A iNF Commitment to Aircraft as Weapons I Si NFI s 1 J S • We assl 'ss th1 group has inrnrporatcd kssons lcaml 'd from li llow o 1crativl Rkhan J Rl id's l'aikd shnc humh a1tcm1 • S --Jow incam ratcd terrorist opcrative Ramzi Yousef conducted a homhing of a Philippine Airways llight 01 'ccmbcr 1994 as purl l f his thwartc -------- -24- ' _ I I U C NF Shifting to Softer Target --re -26- - I I Sl X llJl 2002 llh -rhu S ·n11goguc Attack in Tunisia U On April 11 2002 a trut k exploded near the historic El Uhriba synagogue on the island ut' Djcrba a major tourist lucation in Tunisia The attack killed 21 and injured approximately JO 1110 1 uf them Ucrman tourists X 3 t Pi 'itll IPU -28 s sc THIS PAGE UNClASSIFlm WHEN REMOVED FROM DOCUMENT Ol'OLC S U FlU Customer Satisfaction Sur 'cy Rl'lurn to f i king f11 1ructi1111s I 'irclc the 1prrupn 11c rcsponw 1cc111J111gly Dear Customer Stmn1 1ly Il1sagrcc D1sagrcc Neither - gro c ur IJ1sagrcc J gr1•c • 5 Strongly grcc NA Not ppltrnhli Product Title l11e Please take a moment and complete this survey to help evaluate tho quality and value of FBI products Your response will help us to serve you more effectively and efficiently in the future Th rnk you for cooperation and assistance frrmrj1t J' 1rl'11I 111 th1· 1 s omrl 11111' -In F ll ·IIBW lli _tl_l'ruduct Datc _ _1 VJ' li -'-ll l4_____ Cu tumcr · - - - · - - - - - · - ·-· -·-----··· --··-···- -· ·-·· -•-··-···- - · - · l111clligcncc F11nct1on lnwslil atl c l'rognun _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ Quullty 3 4 5 NA This product as dcli1m d witlun cslablbhcd dca1llinc 2 l 4 5 NA The pruducl was timely a11d relevant to mir n11 sio11 programs priontic 11r i111tiut1ves 2 J 5 The p1uduc1 was dear anJ lo ical in the pn sc111a11un nf i11ti1n11atio11 supported judgment and conclusions 2 3 4 5 The prudUl'I is rcliabh 1 c uurccs well tlm umcnred and reputable 1 ith al111 2 J 2 J 4 5 NA 1'11c product contnbulcd to sutislying intelligence gaps or prcdtl'aling casi s or mtclhgcnce upcrntiuns spcci 1lly in previously unknown an as The product mulled in chungc m investigative or 1n1clltg mcc priur11i1•s 111 tror a shill from u11a1h Jrcs cd lo ad1frcsscd work or 1 c 1cr a NA ·--·-···------ -· • ---··-5 2 NA J'hc p111duc1 rcsuill 'd in more informed dcci 1011 cmu crning 1mc t1grn1c ur 1ntclligc11cc 1111tia11ws a11diur rc mm·c alloca11on -------------------------The product 1 lcnliticd ucw 111fon11at11111 arn iatcd 1111h pc11d111g matters 1•r pffi-rc d i11s1ghts into infontrnllon th it i uuld d1a11ge lhc w11rk111g prc1111 c 111 1 program or ir11tiat1w 'ummears i c itl l '44ll CJPS· Sj THIS PAGE UNClASSlflED WHEN REMOVED FROM DOCUMENT -44- The U S Intelligence Community after 9 11 Published by ProQuest 789 E Eisenhower Parkway PO Box 1346 Ann Arbor MI 48106 USA The U S Intelligence Community after 9 11 The set comprised of 667 documents focuses on the significant changes in the U S Intelligence Community that have occurred since the terrorist acts of September 11 2001 Some of these changes would have occurred in any case as the result of a natural evolutionary process - that is due to new ideas and technological opportunities But others such as the creation of the office of the director of national intelligence are direct consequences of9 l 1 and the questions that arose surrounding the community's performance prior to the attacks The U S Intelligence Community after 9 11 includes relevant documentation concerning the organizational changes made since 9 11 as well as information about intelligence activities that have occurred since the attacks -including material on collection counterintelligence and analysis A particular feature of the set is its inclusion of the results of official Congressional and executive branch inquiries into and assessments of Intelligence Community performance regarding 9 11 the war in Iraq and other similar issues of major public concern Arrangement of Information on the Microfiche The documents are arranged in functional order then either chronologically or by document number within categories A unique identification number is assigned to each document Each new document begins a new line on the microfiche Microfiche Numbering The unique identification numbers assigned to the documents are listed in the top right-hand corner of the microfiche header Technical Data Date of Publication of Microfiche Edition 2009 Format 49 double frame 105mm x 148mm microfiche 24 x nominal reduction Copyright This finding aid is in copyright and reproduction of individual pages for purposes other than for private study may not be made without permission from the holding institution Arrangement ©2009 ProQuest LLC All rights reserved Distribution Outside the USA ProQuest The Quorum Barnwell Road Cambridge CBS SSW England 1 0 11111 11111 • IIIIIJi i Iii£ · 4 0 I i I 11111 1 1 0 I - 1 u u 11111 11111 0 II 11111 16 · 1 I 2 I INS 2 3 lcMsl4 3 I I I 5 6 7