-------'------ -------_ _ '-------n µ _C i 1-1 t J OJ ' J -l 0 w ' J rn o 0 0 N Cf rn 0 Q 71 PO N o o Nm r rn 6 rn J Bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam An Update mmmcrcr OOO w I I I - 0 0 0 01 01 01 OJ OJ OJ w 01 - - - --0 0 C I I I 01 01 - - en en · 0003163 I - n 0 7u II 1-1 J-1 0 w D ·Overview of Today's Briefing · ® Status of the Investigation • U sama Bin Ladin as a Worldwide Threat ® Probable Reaction to a Strike Against Usama Bin Ladin at Khowst 0003164 I Nairobi and· Dar es ··Salaam · Bombings Status of the Investigation 0003165 ----------- --·--·--·---···-·· ···· 0 0 Jl 'J f-1 r 1 0 w 1 0 Leads Point to U sama Bin Ladin and Associates All credible intelligence links ·bombings to prime suspects Bin Ladin and the Egyptian groups al ·Jihad and al-Gama at al lslamiyya - 0003166 ----- ·--·· ···- 0003167 ·--· ___ __ ___ __ __________ ________ o -U ' i I-' I-' 1 0 w 0 says Bin-Ladin sponsored bombings · report dly planning to bomb embassies ----- in Nairobi and-Dar Salaam es M·an injured in Nairobi blast app ars linked to Bin Ladin _ 0003168 · ··---·-·· --- -----____ _-- ----------- I Usama Bin Ladin Worldwide Terrorist Threat 003169 ··--·-····•-•·- ' Promoting Universal Jihad · Goal of Worldwid e Islamic government • Strategy · ''Liberate'j Sau di Arabia and Palestine - Fight against ''·dictators'' · · -- Promote unity among ext emist groups • Formed ''International Front for Jihad Against the Jews· and Crusader '' E8 ·• 0003170 •' · Ties to Extremists and Presence Worldwide · North and Sub Saharan Africa Y emeni Saudi Omani • Jordanian Lebanese Palestinian ·syrian • Southeast Asia · · • Mujahedin groups in Bosnia Chechnya Tajilcistan Ka hmir Kosovo • North America nd Europe @ ® ' 0003171 ·--····-·------------- --------·· •'--·-·· ---------'--· ··-·-·· Bin Ladin Links to Terrorism • _World Trade Center Manil Air OPM SANG • Attacks on···US in Somalia an d Yemen • Assassination attempts 1· • · Less _ d·estructive attacks in 000 172 - - ··----·--·---·------· __ ·- · ·-·-·····-- ····-- ··- -· Bin Ladin Casts US as Enemy •· Bin Ladin blames United States for Muslim problems _ s Declared War on the US in 1996 ·· · · - Decreed in February 19·98 that Muslims kill Americans and their allies including civilians · · -Promised-results of this·declaration ''within weeks'·' in May 1998 -- ' --·- -· _____ _____ ___ __ ________ 000317'3 ___ _ __ __ __ _ __ n 0 vi J F-1 O w 0 ·Probable Reaction to Strike Against Usama Bin Ladin in ·Khow·st ·- 0003174 ' Some Form of Retaliation Virtually Assured • Retaliatory attack by supporter§ almost a · certainty_ · · · -_ · • Anti-US violence in Pakistan likely • Follow-oil actions by·Bin Ladin's · organization still possible ·· · · ·• Exact response based on whether Bin Ladin · senior colleagues· lead rs o-f other groups · -and - roilies ate killed · it- 0003175 Strike at Khowst May Affect ·B·in Ladiil's·Allies ' · Broad r nge of nationalities trai at the · camps ·A number of Islamic extremists likely present at the sites ® ' 0003176 -· ·-· _______ ___ -- --- ___ __ ·······------ ---------·-·· Factors Affecting the Timing and Targets for Retaliation @ Disruptive effect of Bin Ladin capture in the operation 9 S death or • Emergence of a strong replacement from among· his followers · • Effectiveness of separate ·effort to neutraliz_e · · his Worldwide network · · · • _ 0003177 - -· p $-P - L-1 'tl D w · Post-Bin Ladin Splits Still Pose· · · Dangers to the US • Less likely but Bin Ladin s organization · could break into factions • Lack of c ¢ntral authority could cause some factions to retaliate quicl ly • US Official presence and civilians at risk worldwide but especially in Arab ian P-eninsula and Pakistan 0