UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-21 I N - -4 611A Date 02 18 2015 E114 SECRET PAGE 01 ACTION NEA-01 BAGHDA INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 SS-01 LOG-00 10-19 SSO-00 06251 01 OF 02 CIAE-00 NSCE-00 USIE-00 291244Z RELEASED IN FULL DODE-00 EB-01 INRE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 032w 04FF7A 291244Z 41 INR-05 SP-01 0 291241Z OCT 90 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6202 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 1789 UNSECURCOUNC COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY RIYADH IMMEDIATE S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 06251 E O 12356 DECL OADR TAGS PREL IZ SUBJ TFKU01 PRIMAKOV VISIT 1 S-ENTIRE TEXT 2 THE CLEAR SENSE IN BAGHDAD FROM CHATS WITH KNOWLEDGEABLE IRAQIS DIPLOMATS AND INFORMED JOURNALISTS AS WELL AS A REVIEW OF IRAQI TELEVISION AND PRINTED PRESS COVERAGE LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT THE PRIMAKOV VISIT WAS A SEVERE DISAPPOINTMENT TO THE GOI MOST LOCAL OBSERVERS BELIEVE GOI LEADERS HAD HIGH HOPES THAT PRIMAKOV WOULD ENCOURAGE PURSUIT OF SOME COMPROMISE WHICH FELL SHORT OF FULL IMPLEMENTATION SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 BAGHDA 06251 01 OF 02 291244Z OF RELEVANT UNSC RESOLUTIONS AND WERE CRESTFALLEN BY THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY SUCH MESSAGE FROM PRIMAKOV ONE OF OUR FSN'S MADE THE REMARKABLE COMMENT THAT THE LACK OF PROGRESS ON FINDING A SOLUTION COUPLED WITH THE DOMESTIC DISCONTENT PAIRED WITH THE NOW RESCINDED GAS RATIONING PROGRAM HAS BROUGHT SADDAM TO HIS KNEES 3 THE PHOTOS AND TELEVISION COVERAGE OF SADDAM AND PRIMAKOV WERE INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH UMTED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY ARCHIE M BOLSTER DATE CASE ID 24 SEP 2010 200703992 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 UNCLASSIFIED U S DepartmentofState Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 HOPES THE GOI PLACED IN ITS ERSTWHILE SOVIET FRIENDS SADDAM WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HIS ENTIRE INNER CIRCLE INCLUDING IZZAT IBRAHIM TAHA RAMADHAN TARIQ AZIZ SA'DUN HAMMADI AND LATIF JASIM WAS TRANSPARENTLY UNNATURAL IN HIS FORCED GARISH SMILE AND BONHOMIE FROM THE TELEVISION COVERAGE ONE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT IRAQ AND THE USSR WERE ABOUT TO SIGN A FRIENDSHIP AND COOPERATION TREATY UNCLASSIFIED 4 HOWEVER PRESS REPORTS INDICATE ONLY THAT PRIMAKOV CONVEYED A VERBAL MESSAGE FROM GORBACHEV ON BILATERAL RELATIONS THE SITUATION IN THE REGION AND THE OUTCOME OF PRIMAKOV'S LATEST TOUR OF SOME CAPITALS IN A BRIEF PHONE CONVERSATION WITH CHARGE IMMEDIATELY AFTER PRIMAKOV'S DEPARTURE THE SOVIET DCM DESCRIBED THE TALKS AS FRANK 5 COMMENT AND SUGGESTIONS FOR NEXT STEPS SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 BAGHDA 06251 01 OF 02 291244Z ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT YET HAD A CHANCE TO TALK TO OUR SOVIET COUNTERPARTS IN DEPTH ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IF THE IRAQIS HAD EXPECTED A SPLIT IN THE RANKS THEY DID NOT GET IT 6 IT APPEARS TO US THAT A GOOD FOLLOW-UP TO THIS VISIT WOULD BE THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE UNSC RESOLUTION CURRENTLY ON THE TABLE IN NEW YORK THIS WOULD BACK SADDAM FURTHER INTO A CORNER AND DEMONSTRATE FORCEFULLY THAT HIS EFFORTS TO PRY THE SOVIETS AND THE FRENCH AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS HAVE BEEN AN ABJECT FAILURE ONE WAY TO DRIVE THE POINT HOME IN A VERY VISIBLE MANNER WOULD BE TO HAVE THE PERM FIVE AMBASSADORS IN BAGHDAD MAKE A JOINT DEMARCHE TO FM AZIZ RE THE RESOLUTIONS CONTENTS ALTERNATIVELY WE SHOULD AT LEAST FOLLOW UP THE UNSC RESOLUTION WITH PRESENTATION OF OUR WAR CRIMES NOTE PERHAPS IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER GOVERNMENTS WHICH MIGHT BE AMENABLE TO PRESENTING SIMILAR NOTES UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 UNCLASSIFIED U S DepartmentofState Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 7 WE BELIEVE THAT THE RECENT EFFORTS OF THE IRAQIS TO LOBBY AGAINST THE CONTENTS OF THIS RESOLUTION SUGGEST THEIR VERY REAL CONCERN OVER SOME OF THE ISSUES ADDRESSED THEREIN SPECIFICALLY REPARATIONS AND WAR CRIMES AS ADDRESSEES WILL RECALL THE ISSUE OF REPARATIONS FOR IRAN IS STILL A STICKING POINT IN THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSC 598 THE SECRET UNCLASSIFIED SECRET PAGE 04 BAGHDA 06251 01 OF 02 291244Z IRAQIS CAN ILL AFFORD ANOTHER MASSIVE CLAIM LEVIED AGAINST THEM 8 IN THE CASE OF WAR CRIMES IT IS NOT SECRET NNNN SECRET PAGE 01 ACTION NEA-01 BAGHDA INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 SS-01 LOG-00 10-19 SSO-00 06251 02 OF 02 CIAE-00 NSCE-00 USIE-00 291246Z DODE-00 EB-01 INRE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 032W 04FF7F 291246Z 41 INR-05 SP-01 0 291241Z OCT 90 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6203 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 1790 UNSECURCOUNC COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY RIYADH IMMEDIATE S E C R E T SECTION 02 OF 02 BAGHDAD 06251 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 in bc17548150 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department ofState Caseu Date 02 18 2015 E O 12356 DECL OADR TAGS PREL IZ SUBJ TFKU01 PRIMAKOV VISIT JUST THE LEADERSHIP THAT IS AFFECTED BY THE PROSPECT OF BEING PUT IN THE DOCK BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OFFICERS AND OTHERS OF THE OCCUPATION FORCE IN KUWAIT AS REPORTED SEPTEL IT WAS PROBABLY GRUMBLING IN THE ARMY THAT LED TO FIRST THE REVISION UPWARD OF THE WEEKLY PETROL RATION FOR 8-CYLINDER CARS AND SECOND THE ABANDONMENT OF THE PROGRAM THIS DISCONTENT CAN ONLY BE AGGRAVATED BY THE PROSPECT OF CRIMINAL PROSECUTION FOR ACTIVITIES IN A CAUSE THAT IS NOT UNIVERSALLY POPULAR SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 BAGHDA 06251 02 OF 02 291246Z 9 IN SUM IT APPEARS TO US THAT PRIMAKOV'S VISIT MAY WELL BE A CATALYST TO PERMIT US TO SEIZE THE INITIATIVE AGAIN AND FURTHER ISOLATE SADDAM SEVERAL IRAQIS TFLL US THAT SADDAM IS MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT THAT MUBARAK'S ATTACKS ARE HAVING IF THIS IS ACCURATE AND OUR SENSE IS THAT IT IS GIVEN THE VEHEMENCE OF IRAQI REJOINDERS THEN THE EGYPTIANS SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE AND EVEN INTENSIFY THEIR CAMPAIGN WILSON SECRET NNNN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015 mibc17548150 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case u nm-1 1a - l 7A - acgIF Date 02 18 2015 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No F-2007-03992 Doc No C17548150 Date 02 18 2015