C05359688 ' '- b 1 b 3 b 6 Africa Review '--------- Article s -· - · · 0 ·· · - - _ --- ·•·-----· --- -- -- - Liberia Doe Grapples With Dissident Incursion ' - - - - - - - ' Liberian President Doe's hapless Army remains unable to suppress a seven-week-old tribally based insurrection in Nimba County in northern Liberia the effects of which could further weaken his regime The insurrection was spearheaded by a group of about 100 to 150 dissidents who--with some support from Libya and Burkina-infiltrated through Ivory Coast late last year intending to mount a coup Although government troops captured plotters found in Monrovia the rebels have gained the suppon of some 200 fellow tribesmen in Nimba Military indiscipline and tactical and logistic problems have severely hampered government efforts to counter the rebels' hit-and-run attacks Meanwhile Army and rebel atrocities so far have driven an estimated 40 percent of the county's population into neighboring Ivory Coast and Guinea __ _ ____ Dissident Leader Charles Taylor DailyOi _ Although tile fighting has not threatened the Presidem ' ' 's' ------ ---l -------immediate hold on power -security-in·norlhern·tiberia assistancej probably will remain unstable for at least the next I several months aggravating ethnic animosities regional tensions and US-Liberian relations The brutality and The Incursion and Dissident Challenge ethnic character of many of the Anny's atrocities are In late December from 100 to 150 Liberian dissidents likely to deepen domestic opposition to Doe's reg me- -members of one of several anti-Doe exile groupsespecially as more inexperienced troops are sent to the entered Liberia from Ivory Coast intending to mount a area-and encourage more Nimba residents to flee or coup against the Doe government Although the join the dissidents The Anny's ineffectiveness plotters-apparently the recipients of modest Libyan probably will enable the dissidents to continue to harass training and funding-passed through Ivory Coast government forces and civilians for as long as their will undetected from their safehaven in Burkina their and supplies hold ouL The unwillingness of Liberian scheme was ill-pianned and ill-executed They were ·refugees to return hqme without credible guarantees of poorly armed and some apparently hoped to rendezvous safety is likely to cause Ivory Coast and Guinea to in Monrovia and seize weapons from a government renew public criticism of Liberia's mishandling of the armory The dissidents include m y fonner Liberian insurrection Doe may try to deflect criticism by blaming Washington for not offering lethal military ALA AR 90 005 16 F brwry l 990 APPROVED FOR RELEASED DATE 14-Sep-2009 C05359688 Chronology of Selected Events t 26 December 1989 Dissidents who infillrated from Ivory Coast capture Nimba County towns ofButlo on Jvorian border and Kpetu · -- · 27 December Military placed 011 alert troops dispatched to Nimba under command of General Smith Dissidents allack government forces in Bahn Doe broadcasts first public statement about coup attempt assuring listeners all is 30December well '' 31 December 1 January 1990 Fighting begins at Kahnple Dissidents capture resupply convoy wizh subsiantial quantities of arms and munitions Troops close highway between Sanniquellie and Yekepa Fighting in Kalmple continues Charles Taylor in BBC interview claims to command rebels calls for Liberians to join the struggle to remove the Doe government Butlo i ccaptured hy military 2January 3 January 4January 6January JO January Doe publicly indicts Ivory Coast for harboring Liberian dissidents and allowing its territory to be used as a 1'springboard for rebel incursions warns we know how to cross borders · lvorian Presidem Houphouet-Boigny denies Doe's allegations of support for rebels stresses humanitarian nature ofAbidian's policy ofallowing presence of unarmed exiles Ivorian Foreign Minister makes demarche informing Doe that Ivory Coast would defend its terrirory against incursions but siresses commilment 10 peace ------------i Capiured dissidents displayed at prt ss conjerence claim Libyan and Burkinabe support military officers and were organized by Charles Taylor a former Liberian official and a fugitive from US jµstice under the banner of his National Patriotic Front of Liberia become available Although the rebels probably have _lost a large number of men they still are able to launch hit-and-run attacks inflicting casualties capturing government weapons and ammunition and keeping the Armed Forces of Liberia AFL on the defensive The Although government troops q lickly captured the few plotters who reached Mpnrovia fighting in northern military has brougllt in reinforcements there are now between 400 and 500 troops in Nimba and evacuated Liberia's Nimba County-home of the dissidents' fellow Gio tribesmen-has picked up steam over the pas six weeks -- - ---- - at least border villages in an 200 hundred local residents probably have joined their rebel kin Estimates of civilian casualties have ranged from 200 to 500 although precise figures are unlikely IO 2 effon to isolate rebel forces I C05359688 Chronology of Selected Events - • - -- Heavyfig hting at lali on border with Ivory Coast IS Janua 16January 22January 24January 26January Fi htin moves arther south incidents re rted at Blewali __ efugees in Guinea andlvory Coast exceed50 000 Doe threatens publicly to execute soldiers who harm civilians Rebels retake Kahnple and seize weapons also attack AFL troops near Zogowe General Crai arrives in Nimba Coun to take commando the anti-insur en orce AFL retakes Kahn le J __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 29January JO January I Februarv 7 February incursion Guinean President Conte and Sierra Leone's President Momoh meet with Doe in Monrovia to urge restraint Offer expressions of solidariry but refuse co join Doe in blaming Ivory Coast AFL retakes and occuoies Kalmnle Liberian refugee count in Guinea may exceed 80 000 with another 60 000 estimated in the Ivory Coast --- The AFL's Poor Performance We believe the inability of military leaders to control their troops has been a key factor in the government's failure to restore order in Nimba County and has contributed to human rights abuses as well as operational ineff tiveness -· --· ·--- - I oldiers have refused to obey orders and · generally have been more interested in personal gain than in fighting the rebels I ----- Military I II discipline • '- -c----_ ---- _J the inability-or unwillingness-of AFL commanders to control their troops has con_tributed to military atrocities against Jocal tribesmen as have intertribal rivalries within the AFL I Ethnic Tensians AFL atrocities have fanned deep hostilities between local Gio tribesmen and members of 3 S et I · C05359688 - ------p - Liberia lnternaltonel boundary County boundary• National ClpltDI Countyaeat Railroad Road •1 r•rMI boul'Kl ri i $hOWrt d'O hOI 1r l'-et Hlf 11ddllt0ra oJ co mll•• 198 •me•ae 2 S SDM1t• 1 ' ' · J ' C05359688 - Doe's Krahn tribe who dominate the military _ __ Ivory Coast Burkina and Libya with supporting the dissidents may have killed Krahns and insurgents Citing confessions by captured dissidents Mandingos in a deliberate attempt to stir up tribal he has claimed that these countries harbored fmanced animosities Neighboring Guinea and Ivory Coast trained and equipped the rebels The President's blame the atrocities for the flood of refugees into their-·•--accusations pushed regional rensions _to flash pointin · countries Repons of random killings have diminis ed early January when he asserted that his troops were in recent weeks since the AFI evacuated most of the prepared to cross the border to battle insurgents towns along the Nimba-Ivory Coast border and declared harbored by Iv9ry CoasL In response Abidjan warned a dusk-t dawn curfew for the entire region Still the that Ivory Coast would defend its boundaries Even mostly Gio refugees say they are unwilling to return though tempers have cooled in recent weeks J _ _ __ home because they fear more military violence as well I Monrovia still believes Ivory as further ethnic score-settling by civilians '--_ _ _ Coast tacitly supponed the rebels I a _J Tactical and Logistic Difficulties The rebels' ability to conduct ambushes in Nimba's thickly forested areas has confounded and demoralized A FL troop who are almost entirely lacking in counterinsurgency training and given the rebels a clear tactical advantage The ' military's strategy of retaking towns only to abandon them to the insurgents at nightfall has enabled relatively small groups of rebels to tie down large numbers of soldiers over extended periods The soldiers' refusal to leave the main roads to pursue their attackers because they fear the rebels' I I 0 I Despite the confessions of the captured dissidents outside support for the rebels was nrobablv fairly modest in our view I I Senior AFL officers have reported severe shortages of _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _v_ehicles gasoline ammunition and communications equipmenq jaerial ·-·resupply to N1mba is provided by a twice daily run by a Cessna 208 carrying troops arms and ammunition Liberian troops in Nimba have exercised poor fire control andj jat the current ·rate of usage they will run out of ammunition soon Regional Scapegoating Doe has tried to deflect domestic criticism of the Army's mishandling of the Nimba situation by charging 5 i--- -' C05359688 t -_ - 1---- - • --1 I - - - - - - - - - - - - - -unlike his dismissal of foreign accusations of military brutality after a coup attempt in 1985 Doe this time has tried to resp md to criticism from the United States d Liberia's neighbors Responding to International Concerns ------ The human rights abuses by the military and resulting refugee populations in Guinea and Iyory Coast have · - As accounts of brutal killings by the military have made the Doe regime a target of international criticism surfaced Doe has shifted key military personnel and and led to relief effons to assist refugeesj I taken olh measures to reduce tensions i --- Focus on Abuses The President has been sensitive Lo the international OULC ainst AFL atrocities a C05359688 • __ - -- s tt _ --i - ----- Tackling the Burgeoning Refugee Problem Monrovia is concerned about international pressures to reverse the tide of refugees treami rm into neighboring Ivory Coast and Guinea Both countries are ill-equipped t o handle large numbers of refugees and have pleaded with Doe to the watk n mN nlm ro the ref° can return ' Fl 7 C05359688 - _ _ lvorian officials estimate that during January some 40 000 to 60 000 refugees crowded into small Ivorian border villages between Toulepleu and Danane The isolation of Guinea's border areas h_as severely hampered accurate refugee counts in that country but local officials and an international relief agency estimate that roughly 80 000 Liberians from Nimba have fled to Guinean border areas Ivorian and Guinean officials have appealed successfully to the international community for assistance but so far only a trickle of relief goods has reached the refugeesJ lsased on our observations in similar situations organizational and logistic problems are likely to delay the delivery of '----------___J adequate relief flows for several more weeks increasing the prospoct for serious food shortages '-------' Monrovia has tried to coax Liberian refugees back home but has few resources to commit ·10 the effort Doe has commissio ned the Liberian National Disaster Relief Committee a poorly organized nonnally donnant group to provide food and basic government services as AFL troops clear parts of Nimba from threats of rebel attack and Liberian legislators and other officials from Nimba have agreed to 1ry to convince the refugees that it is safe to return Meanwhile the 8 C05359688 -- --- - International Red Cross has been granted access to Nimba and has distributed limited quantities of rice cooking oil and other emergency supplies I- - President Still in Control ••• For Now The fighting in Nimba has not yet thre itened the _ President's hold on power Doe's public appearances in · ·---'----- -- ---recent weeks have helped ease popular anxiety about his Outlook ability to cope with lhe situation The major opposition The AFL's ineffectiveness probably wiU enable lhe parties apparently are abidin b ublic led es not to · Nimba dissidents to continue to harass military troops exploit the situation and civilians for at least several more months The 9 C05359688 rebels probably can survive liy hiding in tiny off-road hamlets where AFL troOps are unlikely to venture Rebel operations will be limited not so much by AFL troop movements as by iheir small numbers and ability to capture weapons am ·· · become increasingly reluctant to bolster his regime if the executive mansion continues to fail to provide adequate materiel and personnel to units fighting in Nimb ---fro m o ve rn m en t fi orce s · --------------' The economy ofNimba--- onsidered a vital economic belt-is likely to be hard·pre sed if the fighting is not ' halted soon Logging operations have been suspended in much of the county Some of the recently harvested rice crop probably has been destroyed or stolen and if 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - refugees do not return by April to plant rice a large ' - - - - As ammunition stocks dwindle AFL troops portion of Nimba 's annual crop-which accounts for probably will become even less willing to risk patrolling 20 percent of Liberia's rice production-will be lost outside base camps leaving the field open for expanded Although iron mining has not been disrupted a wider rebel activity If rebel threats to attack Krahn towns in insurgency could jeopardize ore shipments from Yekepa neighboring Grand Jide County to the ponatBuchanan '--------- me tens10ns wou Doe's difficulties coping with the incursion and its aftermath are likely to aggravate tensions between Liberia and the United States Liberian refugees are unlikely to return to their homes during the next several months without credible assurances that the government can protect them and provide access to economic aid Relief workers in Jvory Coast have programmed relief supplies for at least three months with a likely extension to six months if warranted Still Guinean and Ivorian impatience with Monrovia's ineffectiveness is likely to grow and the criticism is likely to be renewed if the situation drags on Fallout from the dissident incursion is likely to complicate Doe's already chronic domestic problems The President's tribal reconciliation campaign which eanw e pressure rom has helped lower resentment of the regime in recent yveral quaners is likely to mount for Washington to years has· been set back dramatically by ethnic take stronger steps to express US displeasure with the - - - I Doe animosities fanned during the recent fighting I regime as reports of human rights abuses continue to surface especially if Doe shows signs of _ backpedaling on political and economic refonns1 _____ I Over time senior military officers may '----- t ' This article i s ' - - - - - - - - - - - - - - IO