C05358663 sECREl'- ' l b 1 £7 J _ b 3 o q____ b 6 Outlook Doe is almost certain to fall in our judgment His growing isolation and the military's glaring deficiencies severely limit chances the resident would be able to- forestall his own departure through military or political means We judge that Doe's loyalist forces probably have little prospect of stopping the rebel advance let alone defeating the rebels militarily Although the estimated 850 remaining members of the executive ---- m a 'n s i- 'o n'-QJ lard and the speg_al _g ru i - t_e_r__r 0 ¥' Cl i OY L · -- APPROVED FOR RELEASED DATE 14-Sep-2009 3 I· '----- J IPr i' R t l lil t ' - --------' C05358663 probably would be capable of protecting the executive mansion it is unlikely they could defend the city as well and they may lack the will to do either The roughly 200 to 400 other soldiers assigned to guard Monrovia are poorly trained and ill-equipped • q --····· - for urban combat Nonetheless· Doe has said repeatedly that he -- - - -··-----fii unwiili ng· to seek _a_ poiitical·-c·ompromise with·the rebels even if he accepts that he has no alternative we doubt that Taylor would agree to negotiate with him 0 - - - - - - - --·w ·d ubt that any domestic player - ---group·will be in a position to promote an orderly transition Instead we expect ·ooe's departure to usher in a period of anarchy and ethnic bloodletting especially in Monrovia the duration and severity· of which will depend in part on how he leaves power If Doe goes 1 voluntarily leaving a senior non-Krahn military officer such as Defense Minister Barclay in command Doe's succe sors might be able to negotiate with rebel leaders to end the confu sion and hArri n buildinrr a coalition aovernment I I I I - ----- --- ---- -- ----------------__ JI Moreover given the low level of troop morale and discipline many of the remaining government troops probably would not respond to commands from any new leaders to engage the rebels If Taylor's forces gained the upper hand we believe the rebels would indiscriminately begin slaughtering Krahns seeking retribution· for Army atrocities committed against their fellow Gio tribesmen I I How Taylor reacts to emerging circumstances also will play a major part in determining the length and intensity of turbulence in the capital In our view the violence after Doe falls but before a clear successor emerges would be unlikely to subside qui kly unless Taylor could be persuaded to cooperate with other political groups rather than bidding for sole control by force The prospects for reaching a compromise would be complicated _ -- --' £u ther· if-any of the- several- groups of_exiled Liberian dissident ' · · · · ·· Although we cannot rule out Taylors willingness to negotiate in such circumstances his statements so far suggest that he is opposed to sharing power with other groups As a Liberian of American descent or so-called AmericoLiberian Taylor probably has few personal supporters and is viewed wi_th suspicion by most indigenous groups They fear he is using the Gio-Krahn conflict to restore power to the AmericoLiberian min•ori ty that ruled Liberia before Doe n fll b I I C05358663 sECRE # I ' I To ensure his takeover or consolidate his control Taylor may request increased assistance from his Libyan backers If he believes the'rebels will win Qadhafi probably would be tempted to increase clandestine support even before they reached the _- ___ ___ cap tal perhaps by airl fting ·supplies if the rebels control _ _°' · ··· ·-· ·Roberts Airfielsi If the rebels reach Monrovia and claim power Qadhafi probably would-respond--as he did when Rawlings assumed power in Ghana in 1980--by recognizing Taylor's new government __________ and_ flying in arms and ammunition to help shore up Taylor's fledgling regime Qadhafi probably would consider sending Libyan military personnel as advisers and instructors only if he judged that Taylor was firmly in control I I Implications for the United States e primary threat to American citizens and installations would come from a breakdown in Army discipline and law and order in Monrovia The potential for such a development will increase· substantially if the Army fails to stop the rebels at Buchanan If the insurgents seize RIA less than 30 miles from Buchanan the 5 000-8 000 US citizens remaining in Liberia could be stranded although most are scattered throughout the countryside where the probably would be at less risk than those in Monrovia We doubt that either the government or Taylqr would deliberately seek to harm US citizens who stay but Americans could be subjected to unauthorized harassment or nnh in crossfire between rebels and government troops I 1 As the security situ tion deteriorates representatives from both the Liberian Gover-ntnent--such as some members of a del gation due in Washington for talks beginning 7 May--and the Taylor rebel group are likely to appeal to the United States for __ a public show of support Doe or the survivors from his regime • _____ _ _may_plead for_ US intervention to prevE int bloodshed -while the rebels would likely seek US recognition to legitimize their authority over the country Taylor's'political agenda--beyond overthrowing Doe and seizing power for himself--is vague however Although Taylor has claimed he would eventually hoid elections and restore civilian rule his sincerity is suspect ' Tavlor also has tried to disoel concerns that he is anti-US - 1 As many as several thousand other Liberians may hold dual us citi ensM--p7 -------------------------------- 5 I I nc n C05358663 Charles Taylor Charles Taylor--head of the National Patriotic Front of leader of a more than fo1J-L -ll l LLLLL L-'- -' 1 L I'-'------ - fnsur enc a ain•st· the Liberian Government- - --Iiiberia- ·cNPFL and - ' to have the necessary military experience to engineer President Doe's overthrow Several factors--including indiscipline on the part of the Liberian Army tribal animosities ripe for exploitation widespread discouragement wi Doe's rule and Taylor's persistence and underestimated leadership skills--have strengthened his prospects Taylor has claimed he wants to promote democracy and free enterprise but recent press interviews as well as his continued involvement with Libya cast doubt on his intentions It succeed all-out elected is increasingly clear that Taylor is determined to Doe In January 1990 Taylor stated his objective as an armed struggle until Doe is removed and a democratically government is brought to power not necessarily headed by me Charles Taylor Since then his appetite appears t have grown in proportion to his milftary successes Recently he explained to the internatio al press that the Liberian people had begged him to initiate the coup and would be so grateful for a return to true democracy that they would force him to become leader I I Taylor is not a natural fan of the United States but probably realizes that maintenance of the historically-close USLiberian relationship could be crucial to the survival of a fledgling regime under his control As an advisor to the then-new Doe government in 1 980 he promoted a policy of 11 genuine non-alignment and threa ned on various·occasiJ t · stren On the other hand in recent months Taylor has avoi e anti-US statements and _ _ appears to be going out of his way to assure goodwill towards the -- - a - - --- -United States 11_Amer i 9 ar _s _ 'e decent _p ople they _are _our _ frien ds We intend having good relationships he has said Born in southwestern Liberia Taylor is an Arnerico-Liberian descended from xreed US slaves who established Liberia in the 19th century He lived in the United States in the 1970s-possibly earning a master's degree in economics--and subsequently went into the import-export business near Boston Returning to Liberia accept a post in the Doe government Taylor was cashiered in 1983 for alleged large-scale theft of g vernment funds nd coup plotting Having fled to the United States he to --'---- as-aJ x e sted at-Monr o v ia' s requ e s±-hu t later escaped · frQm-4 ai J -c cc- a ___ _ __ 6 e ' 1 '8'• I I C05358663 SECREI • I '• ' it US warrant for his arrest is still active He returned to - - - Africa where he became involved in dissident activity -- -- -- - ------------------------------ - __ -- ••__c•·- - ·- - - _ i • Jti 7 -