ACTION AF-00 INFO E2 ON 0 hSSlrllo LOG-00 PERC-00 I0-00 NSCE-00 PRS-00 PMB-00 NP-00 SRPP-00 LAB-01 OIC-02 ACE-00 DSCC-00 SWCI-00 • 008W ACQ-00 DS-00 L-00 OMB-01 P-00 PRM-00 CIAE-00 OIGO-00 VCE-00 DHS-00 SP-00 DRL-01 INL-00 VC-00 AC-01 OPIC-01 TRSE-00 G-00 ---- --------------5CB8A3 03 APR 2912462 P FM AMEMBASSY MONROVIA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0302 INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY D ODE-00 INR-00 N SAE-00 PM-00 E PAE-00 SAS-00 USNW-00 TEDE-00 DCP-01 PA-00 USIE-00 NFAT-00 2912592 38 k- 9 Q -9 SECTION 01 OF 05 MONROVIA 000511 DEPT FOR AF W DIRECTOR ARIETTI AND AF DAS BRIDGEWATER E O 12958 DELL 04 28 2013 TAGS PGOV PREL NSC UN LI SUBJECT SCENESETTER FOR CEASEFIRE TALKS ROUNDTABLE AND ICGL REF MONROVIA 25 CLASSIFIED BY JOHN W BLANEY AMBASSADOR FOR REASONS 1 5 A AND D LIBERIA IS GOING-INTO A DANGEROUS NATIONAL SUMMARY 1 MELTDOWN INCLUDING INCREASING ETHNIC VIOLENCE AND SPREADING TAYLOR IS UNDER INTENSE PRESSURE BUT HUMANITARIAN CRISIS WILL CLING TO POWER LONGER BECAUSE HE FEARS THE UN S WAR NO SUCCESSOR TO TAYLOR IS CRIMES TRIBUNAL IN SIERRA LEONE IN THE WINGS SO SOME PROCEDURAL PROVISION OF LEGITIMACY TO ANY SUCCESSOR IS NECESSARY IN ORDER TO AVOID A BLOODY STRUGGLE FOR POWER AND POSSIBLE NATIONAL DISINTEGRATION f THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL'S COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TOWARDS LIBERIA AFFORDS THE BEST AND ONLY VISIBLE HOPE FOR INCREASING INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL STABILITY AVOIDING NATIONAL DISINTEGRATION AND REPLACING TAYLOR PEACEFULLY BI 5 J-xNEi-giJMMARY A FEW MONTHS AGO THE ECONOMIST 2 NL BACKGROUND ANALYSIS MAGAZINE DUBBED LIBERIA AS THE WORST PLACE IN THE WORLD UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY JOHN S BLODGETT DATE CASE ID 01 OCT 2007 200604067 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY APPEALS REVIEW PANEL APPEAL ACTION ADDITIONAL INFORMATION RELEASED REASON S B5 B1 1 4 D DATE CASE ID 28 APR 2009 200604067 arl llfl c I L I LIBERIA NOW HAS NOT ONE THINGS HAVE DECLINED SINCE THEN THE HUMANITARIAN BUT TWO VIOLENT REBELLIONS UNDERWAY SITUATION HAS BECOME A CRISIS WITH 11 OF 15 COUNTIES NOW CUT LIBERIA'S PAST AND OFF FROM INTERNATIONAL RELIEF ASSISTANCE COUNTRIES HAVE ACTIVITIES NEIGHBORING RECENT MARAUDING IN BEEN RESPONDED TO IN KIND J 131 STRANGELY THE FEELING ON THE GROUND HERE IS NOT SIMPLY THAT IT IS NOW FOR LIBERIA'S MANY SINS BUT MORE ONE OF PAYBACK TIME SPREADING CHAOS AND BLOODSHED THE EMERGING TRIPLE THREAT WEST BURUNDI WEST RWANDA WEST SOMALIA 3 Q THERE APPEAR TO BE MAJOR DOWNSIDES EMERGING FROM THE CONFLICTS IN LIBERIA AND NEARBY ARE PRESENT SITUATION TAKING ON PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER DIMENSIONS OF ETHNIC AND WE HAVE HEARD GROWING REPORTS OF SMALL ETHNIC TRIBAL HATRED MASSACRES AND ATROCITIES CONDUCTED BY LURD OF GIOS AND OF A LARGE RETALIATORY MASSACRE ALLEGEDLY LED BY TAYLOR'S GENERAL YEATEN OF MANDINGOS NEAR DISPUTED GANTA WE ARE ALSO STARTING TO HEAR ALLEGATIONS OF HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY MODEL INCLUDING AN ALLEGED ETHNIC-BASED MASSACRE OF SCHOOL THIS PATTERN COULD WELL BE THE CHILDREN NEAR GREENVILLE WHEN BACKED INTO A CORNER HARBINGER OF FUTURE CONFLICT TAYLOR AND OTHER WARLORDS READILY STIR ETHNIC HATRED AND VIOLENCE TO IMPROVE THEIR POSITIONS AND HAVE DONE SO IN THE PAST IN FACT IN AN OBVIOUS EFFORT TO SPLIT LURD A GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED NEWSPAPER HEADLINE RECENTLY BLARED MANDINGOES KILLING KRAHNS 4 L THIS TIME ONCE IGNITED IT MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE TO CONTAIN THE WILDFIRE OF ETHNIC AND TRIBAL HATRED ' LIBERIA IS DISINTEGRATING AS A RECOGNIZABLE NATION-STATE THE GOVERNMENT HAS ESSENTIALLY OPTED OUT OF ANY SUPPORT OF HEALTH CARE AND BASIC ITS INCREASINGLY DESPERATE CITIZENS SERVICES HAVE ALL ESSENTIALLY STOPPED AND LIBERIA IS NOW AN EDUCATION HAS ALL BUT COLLAPSED INCUBATOR FOR DISEASE UNEMPLOYMENT IS AT LEAST 85 PER CENT IN A LAND OF ABUNDANT NATURAL RESOURCES AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES E G GOLD DIAMONDS RUBBER TIMBER OIL ETC THE INTERNATIONAL RELIEF COMMUNITY IS SCARED AND UNABLE TO COPE WITH THE TURMOIL THE CULTURE OF WAR IS BECOMING ENTRENCHED WITH CHILD SOLDIERS CARRYING ITS BANNERS COMPARATIVELY BATTLE-HARDENED LIBERIAN MERCENARIES LOOK HUNGRILY AT NEIGHBORS LIKE SIERRA LEONE AND RICHER IVORY COAST WHOSE WHEN THE UN PEACEKEEPERS HAVE DRAWN DOWN ARMIES ARE SOFT AND THE FRENCH ARMY GOES HOME THEY WILL BE WAITING S OVER TIME 5 C EVEN THE ROADS ARE BEGINNING TO DISAPPEAR WE ARE SEEING THE GRADUAL EMERGENCE OF SOME SORT OF ETHNICALLY BOUNDED MEDIEVAL-LIKE PRINCIPALITIES RUN BY IT IS A NICE QUESTION FOR EXAMPLE WHETHER LOCAL WARLORDS DOZENS OF NIMBA COUNTY IS STILL A PART OF LIBERIA INDEPENDENT LOCAL MILITIA ROADBLOCKS HAVE SPRUNG UP THAT DO NOT TAKE ORDERS FROM MONROVIA OR ITS TROOPS 6 N j FOR ALL ITS WRONGDOINGS AS A NATION-STATE BUT SOON LIBERIA LIBERIA DOES NOT PERMIT THESE ACTIVITIES MONROVIA 00000511 002 OF 005 A WILL ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFICULT IF THE PARTIES TO THE THE GOVERNMENT OF LIBERIA'S CONFLICT CONTINUE TO FRAGMENT GOL S CEASEFIRE TALKS WITH LURD COULD BE UNDERMINED IF LURD ITSELF APPEARS TO BE SPLINTERING MODEL DISAVOWS THEM 8 4 WE DOUBT THAT TAYLOR CONTROLS ALL HIS FORCES ANYMORE AT SOME POINT ONE OR MORE OF TAYLOR'S MILITIAS MAY OPENLY IN FACT WE THINK THAT TAYLOR'S BREAK AWAY FROM HIS YOKE ANTI-TERRORISM UNIT ATU AND ESPECIALLY LOCAL MILITIA FORCES ARE ACTING WITH GREATER AUTONOMY AND WITH LESS PREDICTABILITY NIMBA COUNTY S DE FACTO SUCCESSION FROM THE AT CHECKPOINTS UNION MAY SOON BE FOLLOWED BY OTHER PARTS OF LIBERIA AFTER ALL TAYLOR IS NO LONGER PAYING MOST OF HIS ARMED FORCES IN LIBERIA EVEN SPORADICALLY WAITING IN THE WINGS 9 N IT IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND THAT THERE ARE VERY FEW THE GOOD GUYS IN SIGHT READY TO JUMP-IN AND SAVE THE DAY MAJOR REBEL GROUP THE LURD HAS STEPPED-UP ATROCITIES AND ARE DEEPLY FEARED BY MANY NOT ONLY FOR THEIR ACTIONS BUT BECAUSE THEY ARE MOSTLY MUSLIM 10 % ACCEPTING TAYLOR OR THE KHRAN S MODEL FOR MOST B t MODELS MONROVIANS IS YET ANOTHER SAD HOBSON S CHOICE GENERAL JULU HAS QUITE A BLOODY BACKGROUND LINKED TO PRESIDENT SAMUEL DOE AND THE 1990 CIVILIAN MASSACRE AT ST ROOSEVELT PETER'S LUTHERAN CHURCH IN MONROVIA AND TO ULIMO JOHNSON NEEDS NO INTRODUCTION TO US AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN SUM THE LEADERS OF MODEL ALSO DO NOT DWELL IN INVOLVED MR ROGERS NEIGHBORHOOD POLITICAL 11 N LIBERIA'S TRAGEDY RUNS EVEN DEEPER IS FRAGMENTED STILL LARGELY OPPOSITION TO TAYLOR MANY PROBABLY MOST OF LIBERIA'S TALENTED PEOPLE HAVE LONG SINCE DEPARTED THIS SUFFERING LAND MANY TALK OF RETURNING FROM THE UNITED STATES OR ELSEWHERE BUT HOW MANY ACTUALLY WOULD DO SO EVEN WITH A BETTER REGIME BRUMSKINE THINKS ENOUGH WOULD RETURN FROM THE IN POWER DIASPORA-TO JUMP-START LIBERIA BUT WE ARE LESS CERTAIN 12 N AS PRESSURE MOUNTS ON TAYLOR SEE BELOW WE MUST ALSO CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THE LOYALTY OF HIS OWN STALWARTS SIMPLY PUT FEWER AND FEWER OF THEM ARE RECEIVING ENOUGH RETURNS FOR THE TAYLOR REGIME IS LIKE A WOUNDED SHARK THEIR LOYALTY TAYLOR'S DEPARTURE INTO EXILE FEEDING ON ITS OWN ENTRAILS OR OTHER VOLITIONAL TAYLOR-EXIT SCENARIOS ARE HOWEVER NOW LESS LIKELY THAN PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD SEEM TO DICTATE BECAUSE TAYLOR IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE UN S TRIBUNAL HE WOULD FIGHT AND DIE FOR HIS TAKING HIM INTO CUSTODY BLOODY THRONE RATHER THAN GO ON TRIAL AS A WAR CRIMINAL ONCE HE STEPS DOWN TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO LIBERIA 14 N AS THE UNSC PANEL OF EXPERTS CORRECTLY NOTES THE B1 THE GAPING AND LONG-STANDING REGION IS AWASH IN WEAPONS HOLE IN THE UNSC LIBERIA SANCTIONS PROGRAM OMITTING A BAN ON LIBERIA'S TIMBER EXPORTS SHARPLY LIMITED THE•PROGRAM'S EFFICACY PERHAPS MODEL S RECENT MILITARY GAINS WILL PREVENT TIMBER HARVESTING FROM RESUMING NEXT SEASON ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN j THE RECENT INVOLVEMENT OF LIBERIA IN WESTERN IVORY COAST MAKES A CONVINCING CASE THAT EXISTING UNSC SANCTIONS AND SOME BEEFING-UP OF MONROVIA 00000511 Bl 003 OF 005 H THE DIRECTION OF CHAOS MAY HAVE BEEN AFFECTED FOR THE TIME BEING B2 15 N1 YET UNSC SANCTIONS CAN STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IF USED IN TANDEM WITH A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH THAT BRAVELY TACKLES THE INTERNAL CAUSES OF LIBERIA'S CONTAGIOUS SOCIAL PRESIDENT TAYLOR IS CERTAINLY A MAJOR PART OF THE MADNESS HOWEVER AS THE BRIEF NARRATIVE ABOVE ARGUES THE PROBLEM PROBLEMS OF AND THREATS EMANATING FROM THIS FAILED STATE RUN VERY DEEP AND WOULD BE FORMIDABLE TO ADDRESS EVEN WITHOUT TAYLOR A REGIME UNDER INTENSE PRESSURE 16 Vj THE TAYLOR REGIME IS PROBABLY UNDER MORE PRESSURE NOW THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE ITS ONSET IN 1997 IT IS EMBATTLED BY TWO IN OUR VIEW LARGELY SEPARATE REBEL GROUPINGS LURD AND MODEL IT IS CLEARLY HAVING DIFFICULTY EJECTING LURD FROM GANTA AND MAY RETALIATE DIRECTLY INTO GUINEA IN RESPONSE TO MODEL IS ALSO ITS INCREASINGLY OVERT SUPPORT OF LURD ADVANCING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS SOON TOWARDS BUCHANAN AND MONROVIA 17 N JUST AS IMPORTANTLY LIBERIAN CITIZENS ARE DESPERATE AND DEMONSTRATING FOR PEACE THEY ARE FED-UP WITH TAYLOR'S REGIME AND RESENTFUL OF THEIR DOWNWARD-SPIRALING LIVING CONDITIONS THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SIGNS THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS ESSENTIALLY BANKRUPT NOT JUST BECAUSE OF WAR THERE ARE -1 EVENSOME27TDICA'I'IONSOFDSAFFECTTON r7TTHIN R 18 OWN MILITARY FORCES AND SOME SIGNS OF UNWILLINGNESS TO CONDUCT ENDLESS WAR WITHOUT PAY -EVEN TAYLOR'S OWN INNER CIRCLE ARE 1 31 STRAPPED AND MUTTERING ABOUT HIM 18 Q THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT OUR VIGOROUS CAMPAIGN TO CONFRONT TAYLOR AT HOME HAS PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON HIM HAVING SAID THAT WE THINK THAT THE AND HIS REGIME WEAKNESSES OF THE TAYLOR REGIME OUTLINED ABOVE ALSO STRATEGIC HELP EXPLAIN WHY HE RECENTLY MADE TWO MAJOR CONCESSIONS TO US AND LATER TO THE ICGL THAT IS AGREEING TO THE UN-LED NEEDS ASSESSMENT TEAM AND REVERSING HIS VOW NEVER TO HAVE THE THESE CONCESSIONS REPRESENT A GOL MEET DIRECTLY WITH LURD SHARP DEPARTURE FROM TAYLOR'S PENCHANT FOR DEALING WITH OTHER AFRICAN HEADS-OF-STATE IN ORDER TO RESOLVE SECURITY PROBLEMS FOR EXAMPLE TAYLOR PRESSED HARD TO MEET LAST WEEKEND WITH PRESIDENT GBAGBO IN ORDER TO SEEK RELIEF FROM MODEL BUT NOT WITH ANY MEMBERS OF MODEL ITSELF 19 N ALTHOUGH TAYLOR STILL HAS OTHER VIABLE OPTIONS SUCH AS LAUNCHING POGROMS AND SPREADING EVEN MORE CHAOS ABROAD AND IN LIBERIA HE FEELS THE HEAT AND NOW IS A TIME OF SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY AND LEVERAGE FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY-- IF IT CAN ACT EFFECTIVELY NEGOTIATING STRATEGY 20 tV4 AS WASHINGTON KNOWS THE UPCOMING MEETINGS ON LIBERIA IN GHANA WILL LIKELY BE TWO SIMULTANEOUS INTERRELATED MEETINGS THE LARGER ONE WILL BE CALLED THE ROUNDTABLE8 APPARENTLY THE ICGL CO-CHAIRS IN CONSULTATION WITH TAYLOR HAVE LIMITED THE ROUNDTABLE SESSION TO THE GOL LURD AND THE 18 POLITICAL PARTIES PLUS A NUMBER OF OTHER IT IS UNCLEAR WHO WILL CHAIR THE ORGANIZATIONS AS OBSERVERS ROUNDTABLE BUT THE GOL SEES THIS FUNCTION AS GOING TOA NON-LIBERIAN 21 THE CEASEFIRE TALKS WILL BE HELD AS A SIDEBAR MEETING AND PROBABLY SIMULTANEOUS TO THE LARGER ROUNDTABLE SESSION THE COMPOSITION IS ESTABLISHED AS GOL LURD ICGL CO-CHAIRS USG-AND GENERAL ABUBAKAR AS THE LIKELY FACILITATOR AND CHAIR OF THE SESSION THE UN PROBABLY UNOL MAY MAKE IT AS AN ADD-ON IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHETHER ECOWAS WILL BE REPRESENTED BY ABUBAKAR OR HAVE A SEPARATE REPRESENTATIVE B5 135 135 l 13 n L E t L I J L l B5 BLANEY