DECLASSIFIED Authority N»bliMf'I f 20 1978 1 25 78 1ce Bob I$ a study going forward as to how long it would take the Paks to finish the reprocessing plant on their own 1tl f k J mntry Projects those was to Pakistan's for· nuclear Livermore the study ey would following ear ext threat td equiplowever and roces an already ep orces ey sensi explosive - ill not Eort of Conornic ll t9fA I t t JC' J rl' t1· lo I v' V t' J ri finanhe study -1 t't Pl f SECR MEMORANDUM FOR THE FILES SUBJECT DECLASSIFIED Authority N v ael January 20 1978 A Study of Pakistan's Capability to Produce Indigenous Nuclear Explosive Devices A meeting was held on January 17 chaired by PAB Country Director Coon with representatives of the Special Projects Office Lawrence-Livermore Laboratory A list of those attending is appended The purpose of the meeting was to discuss a possible stud b Lawrence-Livermore of Pakistan's ca ac1 · enousl 1ss1 e ma erTa T 'for··11Uclear explosive devices _ In order to help the Lawrence-Livermore specialists we worked out certain parameters for the study In response to our request they indicated that they would try to provide their initial thoughts by mid-March The working assumptions for the study include the following -- Pakistan is strongly rnotiviated to acquire nuclear explosive capability to counter the perceived Indian threat -- Pakistan will not be able to acquire from abroad equipment specifically identified with reprocessing However Pakistan will be able to import chemical materials and equipment which are not solely identified with reprocessing and which are commercially available Pakistan already possesses most of the blue prints for the French reporcessing plant but probably not detailed designs of key sensitive equipment -- Pakistan's objective is to produce two or three explosive devices useable in underground tests The study will not address the question of delivery capability -- Facilities designed and constructed in this effort of Pakistan will not need to have any commercial or economic uses 1J I b PON I jVPt t l J 4Ark 1 The operation will be covert 1t1£L h k 0 ve e 1 -v GJ f- 1 - f' Design and construction will not be n da financial considerations within reasonable limits The study will however consider the financial implications SECRET XGDS DECLASSIFIED Authority _Nijl UJWfl ' SECRET -2- -- The Pakistani approach will be quick and dirty In other words they will be prepared to take risks in terms of health and safety standards -- The study will take into account the possibility that China may be willing to provide some assistance both in design and materials Basically the study will attempt to determine if it is feasibleat all for Pakistan to 11 go it alone and if so in what time frame The study will examine at least two possible routes 1 the use of KANUPP spent •fuel and 2 the construction of a covert production reactor as a fuel source In addition to its obvious policy implications the study could be useful in terms of pinpointing intelligence indicators for future collection efforts Copies to List of Attendees from State T D Dr Nye S AS Mr Relly V NEA Mr Dubs Drafted by NEA PAB JA - so x20353 SECRET DECLASSIFIED Authority bW-b iuf 1 __ List of Attendees Murray Cavanaugh Special Projects Office Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Kathleen Amiri Special Projects Office Lawrence Livermore Laboratory OES NET Dixon Hoyle PM NPP Alan Locke INR RNA George Griffin Karen Longeteig INR STA Jeff Siegel Joseph Hayes NEA PAB Jane A Coon