• UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2012-34733 Doc No C05831670 Date 01 26 2018 SECRET PAGE 01 ISLAMA 04391 0505432 ACTION NODS-00 APPEALS PANEL ACTION RELEASED IN FULLj INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 001 W ----023803 0505432 11 R 0409352 MAY 78 FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7006 S-e C R E T ISLAMABAD 4391 IDECAPTIONEDI E O 11652 XGDS-3 TAGS MNUC PARM PK SUBJECT PAKISTAN'S PERCEIVED NEED FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS REF STATE A-1574 1 SUMMARY GEN ZIA AND OTHER HIGH-LEVEL GOP OFFICIALS IN CONVERSATION MAY 2 TOLD VISITING U S SCHMLAR THAT PAKISTAN NEEDS TWO OR THREE NUCLEAR V IEAPONS AS DETERRENT AGAINST INDIA WHOM THEY PERSUME HAS MATERIALS FOR AROUND 20 WEAPONS END SUMMARY 2 STEPHEN COHEN DEPT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS PROTECT STRICTLY HAS GIVEN US LONG DE-BRIEFING ON DINNER IN HIS HONOR GIVEN BY GEN ZIA MAY 2 AND INCLUDING ADVISERS A K -BRQHI-ANDAGHA SHAHI AS WELL AS RANKING MILITARY FIGURE GEN CHISHTI AND OTHERS COHEN IS REPUTABLE SCHOLAR WHO HAS PUBLISHED STUDIES ON PAK AND INDIAN MILITARY AND HAS BEEN LECTURING ON THAT SUBJECT IN PAKISTAN AFTER CONTACTS ELSEWHERE COHEN WAS BROUGHT TO ATTENTION OF GEN ZIA WHO INVITED HIM TO DINNER CONVERSATION OVER SEVERAL HOURS FOCUSSED ON MILITARY SITUATION BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN DETERRENT NEEDS INDIAN INTENTIONS ETC COHEN FOUND WHAT HE REGARDS AS CONSIDERABLE MISUNDERSTANDING AND MISINFORMATION ABOUT INDIA AMONG HIS HOSTS 0 -SECR8 SECRET PAGE02 ISLAMA 04391 0505432 3 PAKS RAISED INDIAN NUCLEAR INTENTIONS BUT DID NOT REFER TO FRENCH REPROCESSING PLANO AND IN ENSUING DISCUSSION COHEN SAYS THERE WAS AGREEMENT ON PAK SIDE WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AGHA SHAHI THAT PAKISTAN OBVIOUSLY HAD NEED OF TWO OR THREE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS DETERRENT AGAINST APPROXIMATELY 20 INDIAN WEAPONS COHEN'S AGRUMENTS THAT THEY HAD NOT THOUGHT MATTER THROUGH AND THAT OTHER NATIONS IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAD CONCLUDED THAT A SMALL NUMBER OF WEAPONS DO NOT ADD TO AND INDEED PETRACT FROM OVERALL REVIEW AUTHORITY Marvin Russell Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2012-34733 Doc No C05831670 Date 01 26 2018 UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2012-34733 Doc No C05831670 Date 01 26 2018 I SECURITY FELL ON DEAF EARS 4 I BRIEFED FRENCH AMS LEGOURRIEREC ON THE ABOVE WITHOUT GIVING COHEN'S NAME LEGOURRIEREC LEAVES MAY 5 FOR ONE WEEK CONSULTATION IN PARIS FOLLOWED BY TWO MONTHS HOME LEAVE IN BRITTANY 5 DEPT PLEASE PASS TO PARIS TEHRAN AND NEW DELHI HUMMEL -SECRET NNN UNCLASSIFIED U S Department of State Case No M-2012-34733 Doc No C05831670 Date 01 26 2018