Aulliori Y ' J DEPARTMENT OF STATE Washington D C 20520 SECRET MEMORANDUM March 9 1979 To S AS - Ambassaq or Smith From S AS - George Rathjens Subject PRC Meeting March 9 1979 - 4 00 PM The meeting opened with a lengthy discussion of the Symington Amendment problem Turner stated that the evidence was clear that the Amendment had been triggered There followed a lot of discussion however as to wh ther or A £t_ J J1 -ha§_h El2 - § Jn 3 _ f c t 11-sl sense anawhether the Secretary of State had to make a determination to that effect A particular issue is the question of action to be taken on two AID contracts which in the normal course of events would be signed virtually immediately There is a cable from Islamabad asking for authorization to sign them After much discussion there seemed to be a consensus that they should be signed provided the lawyers would approve Most of those present seemed to feel that this would be possible but Christopher kept reiterating that it could be done only in the event that the lawyers went along There followed a discussion of the effectiveness of efforts that are being made and could be made to cut off the flow of critical materials from the U S and its allies Efforts that had been made were mentioned and Pickering pointed out that a list had been developed in consultation with the Department of Commerce which would be transmitted to others immediately The estimate has been that it would take the Pakistanis three to five years to develop a weapon and it was suggested by Pickering if I remember correctly that with _y - i- gbt co l troJs thi t lle I er o J ght be doublecf ' Despres argued otherwise pointing that - SECRET GDS DECLAt§SIFIED Authority NIJ t l I _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ -- -- -- - ---- - -- SECRET -2the three to five year figure was already predicated on substantial supply restraints and at best one might achieve an additional year's slippage in the construction of a 7 000 unit centrifuge plant He said that the Pakistanis already had all of the equipment needed for the first 1 000 units and probably all that would be needed for the next 3 000 He believed that there would be a 1 000 unit plant operating by the end of 1980 and that sufficient material for a weapon wo i _ d_be avai - 1 l -- e§-E 'i l982 Deutch ob- _ served that irthere were some low-enriched uranium available the time could be cut 1 1 The third item on the agenda and from my point of view the critical one was how to dissuade the Pakistanis from going ahead There seemed to be consensus that one had to try to build on the Pakistani interest in a nuclear weapons zone and on the Indian statements about their having no interest in nuclear weapons The upshot of all this w - at least I read it that way -- that it was imEerativ to build on Indian interests Keeny araued that the u coura·-maKe 11 ' 'ea'sTer-fur both Pakistan and India if we were wi 11 ing to play down 1 3 and that s mnfe a--- fia °-6 ' I r s r £fo R e Efen The question of debt rescheduling being made conditional on the Pakistanis dropping their nuclear program was raised but not pursued Questions were raised about Saudi support Despres replied that there was evidence of money from Saudi Arabia but absolutely no evidence of a Saudi role or concurrence in the enrichment program ·---·-·-· --' Aaron summed up the meeting by observing that we should go ahead with the two AID contracts with Christopher I believe again reiterating that that would be conditional on a legal opinion and that we should put the Pakistanis on notice that we could undertake no new obligations if they persisted on their present SECRET I • p Aullior - I I - SECRET -3course We should be tough on exports even if it would have little effect on the Pakistan program if for no other reason because of precedent An interagency group will be appointed to look on a high priority basis at options with it being I believe clearly understood that a main point of this effort should be to look at ways of getting he Indians involved constructively There was much skepticism in this meeting and also in the one the night before about any action being successful I suppose this is in large measure justified but it does seem to me that there ought to be an overwhelming self-interest on the part of India in Pakistan's not acquiring a nuclear capability Perhaps I am very naive but it would seem to me that it ought to be t - c1 - n - -- h - -h9 lci t t B 9 • 19 E i - lJA us t'o-'rre'Tp tnem dissuaae the Pakistanis rather than vice versa In any event I came out of the meeting less p imistic I think than most of the others about the possibility of getting the Indians and the Pakistanis to reach some kind of an accommodation that would enable Pakistan to get off the track it is on --- r » 1 • MM · ·- -· ' '·- '' · • ·«· • _ - - · • - • ·•· -r '• _ - flrtl ' I am somewhat concerned that in looking at options the possibility of other powers playing a very prominent role may not get as much attention as it should I have in mind of course particularly China India and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well as the European states Are the people at the highest political levels in these countrie-s-seized wTEE' -the probTe mi' ••sr rouiffii''t' ' we-try to get them--1nvorvEta ·to··1 ry to ne f find a solution to the problem rather than just trying to find something we think might work and then trying to bring them along There was no particular discussion in today's meeting on arms for Pakistan but there was a fair amount of it in yesterday's I think most of those involved in this activity are aware of the pitfalls in trying to buy the Pakistanis off by a combination of aid debt SECRET I I ' DECLASSIFIEDI Autho ity NITT I SECRET -4- rescheduling and arms It probably won't work because in fact no quantity of conventional arms that they could realistically acquire would enable them to match India's capability and trying to buy them off would of course create the worse possible precedent in any future cases Notwithstanding this I think there may be some effort to try this path I think it would be wrong and that if we are going to make concessions anywhere to try to bring about a satisfactory resolution of this problem it will probably have to be in our dealings with India This conclusion is predicated on my belief that there probably is no hope of turning the Pakistanis around unless their legitimate security concerns can be met and that the key to accomplishing this is in inducing India to move in ways that the Pakistanis see as less threatening The use of carrots with the Indians to get them to be reasonable strikes me as more promising than the use of either sticks or carrots with Pakistan It seems to me that you should be represented on any interagency task group that is charged with looking at this problem If things move as rapidly as I infer that they will and as I think they should the effort will be well underway before I have returned from Japan I am stopping off at Livermore and Los Alamos on my way back and so will not be back in the office until the 22d I guess the finger points at Bob Kelley He is I believe knowledgeable and he has sensible and constructive views about the problem Hl# ✓ f 5 3 1L 7f - 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