CO 5 618 0 0 2--- ----- -· -- -- -· ····-·---·- ·--···---- C - f _________ _--_•_ __ - •t -Approved for Release 2013 08 08 1 ' - f vj_1 rtAL SLIP I TO 0 I 9 A3 Apri 1 -1979 -- 7¥--3 ' NIO NP· Mr Des ores I ROOM NO BUILDllt6 • EO 13526 3 5 c - - - · ·• • - FROM I ROOM NO FORM DDCI SUU OIHG H0 241 Rl PUCES FORN 3H WfflCII M Y Bit usm IFESll5 ••· 1 10H - · · · · · · ·- ----· -··---- - _ - ' · - ·l t · - • i ·•· ·'· _ · - · t' - - - · - _ _ - t ' H 0' 0 - ·· · · ·• · •- • · · · 1 ·-•• · •· Approved for Release 2013 08 08 - CO 5 618 0 0 2 ·' Approved for Release 2013 08 08 -rC r'OfflNl l l l 'lfl TDTrEr N l '- btL ll_ t'P -1 IIE'-lliYlfll l s eNi ffiA i r Y -- THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE National Intelligence Officen • I NOTE TO DDCI FROM NIO NP SUBJECT PRC Meeting on Paidstan Wednesday March 28 19 79 • • 0 i Please review the attached draft memorandum fo he record and let -me have your comments Aside from its tedium and indecisiveness the meeting was 'Jllost notable for its neglect of Pakistan's main security problem--perceived threats due to conventionally armed In4ian forces disputed te ritories and mutual animosities Do you have any suggestions for approp iate follow ups · · - · · · ··· - - i ·1 I • • • • • ' '• • • D Attachment MR on PRC mtg 29 Mar 79 CONFIDENif lif FYF_f' QNLy • · - I i • - ·· · - -- - # · · · ' · · ·· _ _ • - ··- - ' • •• • •• · · _ · i ' _ - ···• - - - - · _ · · • ' • f it ' ' · ··' ·• ·'· · _ · l Approved for Release 2013 08 08 ' C05618002 1 • Approved for Release 2013 08 08 - r • • Ffm L _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ · WORKING PAPER __ 129 March 1979 MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD •• SUBJECT PRC Meeting on Alternative Approaches to the Pakistad Proliferation Problem i • · · I · ·· ' • • • -· l • - • _ • · • •• r • · •' · State • ' -• • • · • • ' ' •• 0 ' • · ·· ' • • _ · __ 't' · ' _ - · · • 'I - o - •• ···· · I • _ • • • • - -·- _' ·· __ · ·· ·' • 0 0 - · · · - J I • r -- · · 1500-1640 mdte House Situation Ro ·- · · - · ··-- - -- · ·- · 'PARTICIPANTS • • - -· ' • · - ' · - ·-- -·-· - • Warren Christopher - Deputy· Secretary · · · · - · · ·- · ·- - · · - · · ' David Newsom Unde Secretary for Political Aff airs · · · · ·· - -- · • ' · · ' · · - · · Gerard Smith US Special Representative for Nonpr_oliferation Matters · · ·· · · · · · - _ _- - _ ·· · Arthur Hummel Ambassador to Pakistan - - · ·- _ - _ · • · - ' · - -· _ Defense ·· - _· - · J •• · - • ' --··- · --_- _ · _ _ 0 ' • - - · ·- · · David McCiffert Assistant Secreta-ey for Deve lopi ng Energy - N - · ' 1 - ·· __ · · ij ' · · · ·· · · ·· · _ _ r · ·- -- _ · • • • · · - - · · · _ ·' ' '- · ---'-i _ · _ J • J Bolser Handyside Deputy Assistant Secretary for Ip tezn ationl ll Programs - ····· · _ - _ _ j •• • r • OMB· · ' · _ · · -- - Randy Jayne Associate Director for Sec ity and 'International Affairs _ •a - - - --_ -·_· •· · • - Spurgeon Keeny Charles Van Doren -CIA • Frank Carlucci Jobn Despres Uhite House David Aaron i Approved for Release 2013 08 08 -· - LTG William Y Smith • - _· C05618002 - -· 1 I --------' I•' Thomas Thornton Jessica Mathews · Henxr Owen _ · • ••• • • •• • 1 ··· · ·· -· · · ' ' - · • • · · · - ' · ·· •· ··- __ ·-· ·· · • • • · ' · · · FolloW ng a sped a1 Session for principals only t Christopher opened · · · the discussion of policy toward ·the· Pakistani ·nuclear-proliferation problem · _ ··-y_ ·· _ __ -'lie outlined steps underway to· illJplemen t a sequenced p ogram of compliance _ l - - · · with ·-r he Syming eud me11t to consult with key members of Congress- and - - ·_ · _- _ __ · · 'to correspond wtffl l - t State· as well as Prime•Min lster Desai Ambassador ·· _ _ _ _ _· Smi th and_ in tum t were asked ·to ssess acti0 19 undertaken-an options -- ·· · · - ·_ · · · ·_ availabl e to deny Pakistan foreign support · for · I ts fissile material produc tion · · · · a efforts this course 0£ action has been vigo cous1y pursued and additional · _ - -t·1 · - · -'_ _· - · opportl mities will be explored but the co_ ts _dela s it- imposes on Pakis -_ ·- _- · · · · · tan are inherently limited The· cooperat iW WF' ttJ -fign suppliers and Saudi · f · - -· • •-abia' s amb t· no t·e d • · • -'-v al en t positi011 we e • · -· - • · · - ·•' · • -·· · _ _·_ •• ' _-_' ' i- -J · ___ __· Discussi011 then _ ed Paltis - -- ··cone aised o Soviet complaints about c ross-bo1rder ·operations of Pakistan-based fghan · - ij - ' -· Insurgents Ambassador Ca rlu ci cited the a il el s lack f evidence on · · -···· · -- _ ·· Pakistani support· fQr such operations and subsequently also cited the ' _ • · -_ • diff1 c u1ty ·of suppressing them It was generally agreed that Pakistani _ _ ·_ · _ leaders would now be 1DOre interested than before in Yhat the US would be ' ' - prepared to do pursuant to the US-Pakistan agreement of 1959 an Executive - - • · · · Agr em ent s11-pport ed by a Congressional Resolution So instruct ions are · · · 1 to be prepared fo Ambassador Hummel again to offel ' pos1 t ive ·induc nts · - · for a suspension of Pakistan's uucleai - weapons development efforts- The specific actions proposed were · ·_- - · - a port call at Karachi by the US carrier nov off Socotra aa· • 1 expansion of the 1959 b ateral agreement to covei - att ac i s by _ - -· j Communist-dominated as well as C9rmmmis1 stat es ai u ci_ · · · • ·· __ - to ·· ' · ·_ · · s - ° i i · · -a _ US inte1lig ce and -1 y briefing o regioaa1 co di tlons ' 21 ··t'- - i t t McGiffert suggested th re vas a need ·for a· fuller study of possible-- US or inte m ational guarantees against-nuclear attack by non-Communist • _ '-· _ · i states Hummel noted the ve-ry limited prospects for positive results· and · · ' •· · the 11ke1ihl'l0d that Pakistan would simply ask for further elaborat f on uf · · · j US f ntentians pl ans and comm f tments So Aa- on stated that the US must -· ·_· _ - ·1 soon dec ide under what conditicm s it wou1d or would not deploy ·forces on _ _ _·_ - ··1_ · Pakistan y s behalf - - 1 • In lieu of draft l tters - ·the · 'Guadeloupe· IVn that focused on possible international sai1ctions _against Pakistan there was a consensus for initiating broader consultations with these allied leaders· on Pakistani security problems Jt_ the stability of the region and common concerns in deal uig 'With the risks- of nuclear proliferation not Qnly in Pakistan _ • ' • ' I -· _ • _ _ 2 • -· · ·- r - lii ' ·· -_ ' v • -· • • •• • • • Approved for Release 2013 08 08 a · _ · '•• ·-· · · - co 5 618 0 0 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · -··-· - _ Appro' ed for Release 2013 08 08 •' • • •• • • • • - _ ' ' - ··• · · -_-·· Nu lear·securiey gdarantees to Pakistan and India and mutua L p1edges- - · · · · · of_ no production or use of nuclear veapons were considered worth purs- g •·-- · · •_ long shot at best there seems to be no hal 11 in trying India's prilnal Y · ·_· --- ·uuc1ear general _ securlt y_ concern with China w s recognized ·as a ·j _ _- _ tr f E - - - f - - - _ --- - - - - _--·_ _--__-- _· · ·- - _ - - ·- - - _· _ - _ ·- _ ·- · - - · - · · ·t - · - _The-·gradua L and perhaps· sensational public ization of Pakistan s · _ _ · _ t J ive tcrwud nuclear power v 3 considered illevitable · potentially valuable · -- ' -- - _ li in restr f cting foreiga supplies to its nuclear·program but possibly · · ' ·_' - _ ' ' ' · da mag 1 ng to _broader US rel aci ons· and interests - Frank Carlucci entioned ' _ - ' '_ __ · ·moo4 and possible _advers esponse- of anti-US polit forces _ --· -- - -- ii J the- A%a b Has1im · aud noa•a1igoed movements So the us should refrain ·-· _· - -- · _ ·_-·_ _ __ _from-in1dad Dg- or ampl i fying t e public response to successive disclosures ·· _ · - · · · · ·- · _of info z ma tion and allegations on Pakistan's ·nuclear weapons development _ · · - --·· -· ·-t efforts It was also decided to defer' any·approaches to the Soviets on _- · ' - ' Pakistan's nu r pollcy ps n g a relaxation of tensions over fgban f stan- - ··· I _ hbassador Smith· suggested that these tensions mi ghr be exacerbated were • · · ' · - · - • - he Sav l et Union ·allowed the initiative in raising Pald stc ll's nuclear - · -j • · - _ _- · · · 0 ambiticms as an issue for· the UN Security Council given its bebavior ·_ · _ 'the South African case In sum though ·c istopher set aside Smith's _ · -_· · - ' ·1· case for exposing Paid sun's efforts t o the sunshine __ of international--··_ ·· '· - · · _ _ · • publ i city after consu1ting privatel y with 'the Sov l ets ·· · · · • · · _·· -· -_- - ' - f -· F he·_·cw ren1 · · _- · in • J' • • · • • • • • • • • •• • •• ·- - • • •• -···•• • •• - • ' I • · · · ·1 - - - ·_ ·- ' l· ·_ -' - '- - - · -_ • · - - • ··' - · · · ' • • · - -·-· - •• - · · Finally · OWen · Smith and McGiffert emphasized the importance of '· · • developing ·more effective I l eaJlS of containing the effects· of the Pakistani ·case on proliferation e1sewhere Further work along these lines was called ·for but no specific study proposal s wer accepted - •• · · ·· · · · - - - - _ _ - · - • '- -· '- '• ·- • ' - - · ··J - - ' • ' Io • 3 Approved for Release 2013 08 08 _