INSIGHTi Russia’s 2018 Presidential Election March 13 2018 Russia’s next presidential election is scheduled for March 18 2018 the fourth anniversary of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region Russian President Vladimir Putin who has served as president or prime minister of Russia for over 18 years is widely expected to secure reelection easily against seven other candidates especially given the government’s tight control over the country’s political process With presidential terms in Russia lasting six years victory could keep Putin in office until at least 2024 Promoting Putin Russia’s presidential election is only minimally competitive Putin is running as an independent candidate rather than as the candidate of the ruling United Russia party which is relatively less popular than the president Putin declared his candidacy in December 2017 and has conducted what observers consider a perfunctory national campaign with state-controlled media around the country pushing favorable election coverage In a March 2018 state of the nation speech that observers considered a campaign speech Putin promoted an agenda of domestic reform economic prosperity and nuclear invincibility Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has said he does not think anyone doubts that Putin “is the absolute leader of political Olympus with whom hardly anyone can seriously compete ” The comment prompted Russia’s Central Election Commission chairwoman to issue a rare reprimand Many observers argue that the Russian government’s main objective for the election is to ensure a relatively high voter turnout to bolster perceptions of legitimacy and popular enthusiasm for Putin Media reports have indicated that the administration’s goal is 70% victory and 70% turnout in 2012 Putin received 64% of the vote with 65% turnout Some believe that other candidates were approved—and possibly even handpicked by the government—in the hopes that they could boost turnout and provide a veneer of democratic legitimacy without being disruptive forces at the ballot box or in protests The government would like to avoid the spectacle of 2011-2012 when Putin’s announced return to the presidency after a stint as prime minister and fraud-tainted parliamentary elections led to Russia’s largest protest movement in years Putin has accused the United States of supporting those protests Despite evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 U S presidential election senior U S officials have suggested the United States does not seek to retaliate in kind Congressional Research Service https crsreports congress gov IN10871 CRS INSIGHT Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Congressional Research Service 2 Limiting an Election Challenge Notably the government did not permit prominent anticorruption activist and former Moscow mayoral candidate Alexei Navalny to run Officially Navalny is barred due to a 2013 financial crimes conviction that his supporters and most outside observers deem politically motivated Authorities also have denied registration to Navalny’s Progress Party In March and June 2017 nationwide protests that Navalny spearheaded reportedly attracted thousands of people many university-aged or younger to demonstrate against corruption Hundreds of protestors were temporarily detained and Navalny served a total of 40 days in prison After being barred from the election Navalny called for an election boycott and protests He also released a video purporting to reveal an example of corrupt linkages between Russia’s politicians and wealthy businessmen often referred to as oligarchs Navalny is known for producing engaging popular videos that document alleged corruption among high-level officials In addition to barring Navalny from the election the government cracked down on his campaign infrastructure and nongovernmental organization the Foundation for the Fight Against Corruption ostensibly for various infractions related to fundraising protests and the corruption video After a January 2018 protest Navalny and a few hundred supporters again were briefly detained and some members of Navalny’s team were given short prison sentences Alternative Candidates Besides Navalny another opposition figure who has attracted attention is Civil Initiative candidate Ksenia Sobchak a television talk-show host and celebrity whose late father former St Petersburg mayor Anatoly Sobchak was once Putin’s boss in the city government Since the 2011-2012 opposition protests Sobchak has been an advocate of liberal democratic change in Russia By her own account Sobchak is not running to win but to provide voters especially youth the opportunity to cast a protest vote and to build momentum for the development of a new political movement Some suggest that her past reputation as a wealthy socialite and reality TV star as well as her outspoken views in support of LGBT rights and against Russia’s war in Ukraine limit her appeal among Russian voters Within Russia another candidate Communist Party nominee Pavel Grudinin has generated interest Grudinin was a surprise pick to replace the Communists’ perennial candidate party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov presumably in an effort to broaden the party’s appeal More a promoter of business-friendly socialism than orthodox communism Grudinin is the wealthy director of the private Lenin State Farm outside Moscow Grudinin is not a Communist Party member and was once a member of the United Russia party and a local politician His lively criticism of the government has circulated online and garnered him a broad audience though he is expected to secure only 10%-15% of the vote Among the remaining five contenders are two long-standing fixtures of Russian politics nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and liberal Grigory Yavlinsky Zhirinovsky has competed in all but one Russian presidential election since 1991 Yavlinsky ran in 1996 and 2000 his candidacy was disqualified in his third attempt to run in 2012 Congressional Research Service 3 After the Election Although most observers do not expect to be surprised by the outcome of Russia’s presidential election uncertainty persists about what might come after and Putin’s longer-term intentions including     Will Putin aged 65 seek to stay in power for a full six-year term and possibly extend his rule by other means or will he seek to hand off power to a successor earlier Will Putin maintain strong centralized control over the state apparatus or will different factions become increasingly independent of the president as they begin jockeying for power Will the Russian government appease the Russian population through new economic growth and or military adventures or will there be a rise of popular dissatisfaction and dissent Will Putin maintain a hard-line stance on Ukraine Syria cyberwarfare and other foreign policies or seek to negotiate some kind of rapprochement with the West For more on Russia see CRS Report R44775 Russia Background and U S Policy Author Information Cory Welt Analyst in European Affairs Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service CRS CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role CRS Reports as a work of the United States Government are not subject to copyright protection in the United States Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS However as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material IN10871 · VERSION 4 · NEW