Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Design for Great Power Competition June 4 2020 Congressional Research Service https crsreports congress gov R46389 SUMMARY Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Design for Great Power Competition The U S military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and struggle to win or perhaps lose a war against China or Russia This implication by the National Defense Strategy Commission stands in contrast to the past several decades during which the U S possessed military power without equal Great power competition has returned marked by Chinese and Russian malign activities occurring below the threshold of armed conflict an area of competition called the grey zone while they simultaneously advance warfighting capabilities with increased lethality range and speed The result is the potentially significant erosion of the military advantage possessed by the United States R46389 June 4 2020 John R Hoehn Coordinator Analyst in Military Capabilities and Programs Nishawn S Smagh National Defense Fellow A key capability to ensure the U S military maintains its dominance is in its intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance ISR assets The House and Senate Armed Services Committees have both taken an increasing interest in U S military ISR capabilities vis-à-vis China and Russia The House has emphasized in particular the importance of joint airborne ISR capabilities and established a Future of Defense Task Force to review and assess U S defense capabilities to meet emerging threats The Senate has stressed command and control and both legacy and future ISR systems that can provide tactical forces with targeting data needed to perform their mission within a highly contested environment Most recently the House and Senate Armed Services Committees each drafted legislation calling for appropriations to enhance military modernization to include funding for ISR in the Indo-Pacific region Senior military leaders at the Pentagon are also rethinking modernization priorities to meet the demands of the National Defense Strategy NDS and are aiming to build a more lethal force given concerns that China and Russia may surpass the United States in military capability ISR is one of their modernization priorities More specifically the Department of Defense DOD aims to connect ISR sensors across all warfighting domains space air land sea and cyber directly with commanders and weapon systems sharing data at an accelerated speed This will enable U S and allied forces to outthink outpace and outmaneuver its adversaries Congress may consider whether the DOD-wide modernization programs and budget requests for developing advanced sensing capabilities and connecting those sensors to shooters match the strategies identified in the National Security Strategy NSS and NDS The current DOD ISR enterprise does not yet possess the readiness to effectively support operations in the grey zone or support combat operations in a highly contested environment according to senior DOD ISR leaders To meet the demands of the new global strategic environment the DOD ISR enterprise intends to shift from a manpower-intensive force optimized for operations within a permissive environment to an automation-intensive force capable of defeating a peer adversary within a highly contested environment To achieve operational success within a high threat environment the Services have indicated they would like to invest in resilient and collaborative ISR capabilities that enhance situational awareness aid rapid decisionmaking and reliably find fix and target elusive targets deep within enemy territory The objective is to generate an information advantage for U S military forces which is paramount to effective operations both in the grey zone and highly contested environments To achieve an information advantage each military service has highlighted a number of initiatives unique to their specific primary missions and in support of creating an all-domain sensing and sense-making capability In other words the aim of the future DOD ISR enterprise is to gain access to data from multiple domains space air land sea and cyber make rapid sense of that data securely deliver that data to weapons weapon systems and commanders and possess a workforce that can execute its mission in competition and combat at a pace greater than the enemy However each service faces significant challenges with harnessing the exponential growth in data to realize the potential of disruptive technology and shaping the future workforce to employ these warfighting capabilities This report offers Congress a conceptual framework for understanding unclassified DOD ISR modernization initiatives for great power competition Congressional interests include funding levels strategy plans and programs relative to military ISR investments for the new global strategic environment as defined in the NSS and NDS Congress’s decisions on these issues could have significant implications on the U S military’s competitive advantage versus China and Russia and its ability to compete deter and win in this environment Congressional Research Service ISR Design for Great Power Competition Contents Introduction Evolution into Great Power Competition 1 What Is Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR 1 ISR Roles and Responsibilities 3 Intelligence in Military Operations 4 Scoping the Challenge 5 Grey Zone 6 Highly Contested Environment 7 Rethinking Military Modernization Priorities 8 Connecting Sensors to Shooters 9 Joint All Domain Operations JADO 9 Joint All Domain Command and Control 10 Congressional Actions on ISR 11 ISR Design for Great Power Competition 13 Air Force 14 Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 14 ISR Rebalance 14 Future Capability Investments 15 Collaborative Sensing Grid 17 Air Force Distributed Common Ground System 17 Information Warfare 18 Other Views 18 Space Force 19 Space Situational Awareness 19 Ballistic Missile Warning System 20 Army 20 ISR Task Force 21 Space 22 Multi-Domain Sensor System 22 Terrestrial Layer System 23 Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node 23 Distributed Common Ground System—Army 23 Science and Technology Focus 24 Other Views 24 Navy 25 Information Warfare 25 Airborne Platforms 25 Surface Vessels 25 Data Fusion Technology 26 Human Capital 27 Other Views 27 Marine Corps 28 Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations 28 Marine Corps ISR Enterprise 28 Airborne Platforms 29 Surface Vessels 29 Data Fusion Technology 29 Congressional Research Service ISR Design for Great Power Competition Information Warfare 30 Operationalizing ISR for Great Power Competition 30 Data 30 DOD Data Strategy 31 Challenges with Data Formats 31 Keeping Pace with Data 32 Disruptive Technology 33 Human-Machine Teaming 34 Cloud Technology 35 Human Capital 35 Shaping the Future ISR Force 35 Partnering with Industry and Academia 36 Issues for Congress 36 Figures Figure 1 Array of Multi-domain ISR Capabilities 3 Figure 2 Joint Intelligence Process 4 Figure 3 China Anti-Access Area Denial Defensive Layers 8 Figure 4 Joint All Domain Command and Control 11 Figure 5 Air Force ISR Rebalance 15 Figure 6 Army Cross-Functional Teams 21 Figure 7 Maritime Security and Operational Environment 27 Figure 8 How Much Data Is Generated Every Minute 33 Contacts Author Information 37 Congressional Research Service ISR Design for Great Power Competition Introduction Evolution into Great Power Competition The terror attacks on September 11 2001 followed nearly a decade without major conflict and pushed the U S military into counter-terror CT and counterinsurgency COIN operations aimed at defeating enemies in Afghanistan Iraq and other austere locations However the 2017 National Security Strategy NSS and the 2018 National Defense Strategy NDS note that the global strategic environment has changed and that it is now characterized primarily by competition between the United States and an ascending China as well as a reemerging Russia Importantly this competition is marked by Chinese and Russian malign activities occurring below the threshold of armed conflict while they and other competitors have simultaneously fielded warfighting capabilities with increased lethality range and speed This combination of actions and capabilities according to the National Defense Strategy Commission has significantly eroded the military advantage possessed by the United States since the end of World War II in the Pacific and the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 1 An operationally important capability associated with this advantage has been U S intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance ISR assets What Is Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR “The world is not getting any safer and espionage remains our first line of defense ” General Michael V Hayden2 ISR is a military operation intended to help “decision makers anticipate change mitigate risk and shape outcomes ”3 The U S Department of Defense DOD defines ISR as “an integrated operations and intelligence activity that synchronizes and integrates the planning and operation of sensors assets and processing exploitation and dissemination systems in direct support of current and future operations ”4 It is at the intersection between military planning operations and assessment where intelligence is the product of surveillance and reconnaissance operations 1 National Defense Strategy Commission Providing for the Common Defense The Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission 2018 December 12 2019 at https www usip org sites default files 2018-11 providing-for-the-common-defense pdf The commission was created pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2017 to examine and make recommendations with respect to the national defense strategy of the United States More specifically the commission was charged with formally reviewing the National Defense Strategy NDS released by the Department of Defense DOD in January 2018 as well as assessing and offering its views on the broad range of issues that informed that strategy The commission was tasked with reporting its findings to the President Secretary of Defense Committee on Armed Services of the House of Representatives and Committee on Armed Services of the Senate 2 Hayden Michael V Playing to the Edge Penguin Books February 23 2016 3 Brown Jason Strategy for Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Air University Press 2014 4 DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms at https www jcs mil Portals 36 Documents Doctrine pubs dictionary pdf Congressional Research Service 1 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Intelligence The product resulting from the collection processing integration evaluation analysis and interpretation of available information concerning foreign nations hostile or potentially hostile forces or elements or areas of actual or potential operations 5 Surveillance The systematic observation of aerospace cyberspace surface or subsurface areas places persons or things by visual aural electronic photographic or other means 6 Reconnaissance A mission undertaken to obtain by visual observation or other detection methods information about the activities and resources of an enemy or adversary or to secure data concerning the meteorological hydrographic or geographic characteristics of a particular area 7 ISR does not imply that the U S military senses all activity within a given battlespace It involves using a wide-array of platforms sensors and analytic capacity to create an awareness of adversary capabilities dispositions and likely intentions This awareness resulting from analysis is then used by commanders to exercise Command and Control C2 and decide appropriate measures to utilize available military capabilities 5 Ibid Ibid 7 Ibid 6 Congressional Research Service 2 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Figure 1 Array of Multi-domain ISR Capabilities Data Network Platforms Sensors and Operators Source U S Air Force Notes A wide variety of platforms satellites aircraft ships humans etc and sensors imagery communications acoustics etc collect analyze and share data information and intelligence across multiple warfighting domains The focus of ISR is on answering a commander’s information needs such as identifying and locating adversary activity and intentions within a given battlespace Specific intelligence disciplines include but are not limited to Signals Intelligence SIGINT Geospatial Intelligence GEOINT Measurement and Signatures Intelligence MASINT Publicly Available Information PAI and Human Intelligence HUMINT ISR Roles and Responsibilities According to joint military doctrine the primary role of intelligence is to provide information and assessments to facilitate mission accomplishment 8 For instance targeting an adversary’s longrange missiles is of course much easier when U S military commanders know where the missiles are ISR aims to inform commanders to enable decisionmaking support military planning by anticipating adversary actions and defining the operational environment warn friendly forces of threats support deceptive techniques and counter adversary deception identify 8 Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Publication 2-0 Joint Intelligence October 22 2013 Congressional Research Service 3 ISR Design for Great Power Competition adversary vulnerabilities hold targets at risk of being attacked and assess combat effectiveness 9 These roles and responsibilities are accomplished through a detailed joint intelligence process that facilitates an understanding of the wide variety of intelligence operations and their interrelationships Figure 2 Joint Intelligence Process Source CRS Adaptation from Joint Publication 2-01 Joint and National Intelligence Support to Military Operations July 5 2017 Intelligence in Military Operations The most important role of intelligence in military operations is to provide commanders with analysis of key aspects of the operational environment to assist them in their decisionmaking process Using a wide variety of capabilities ranging from above the earth’s atmosphere to below the surface of the ocean ISR sensors collect data on a given area of operations or battlespace in support of a commander’s information needs Such needs may include the location of adversary forces their warfighting capability and their intentions The collected data resulting from multiple sources are then analyzed largely by human operators with support from artificial intelligence and transformed into information This information creates a narrative on observed activity within the battlespace Analysts then derive meaning from information resulting in intelligence and generating a picture of adversary activity that answers the commander’s information needs and ultimately drives decisionmaking Furthermore during the execution of real-time combat operations and in accordance with the direction provided by a commanding officer ISR provides both targeting data for weapon systems to engage enemy forces and threat data to protect forces The following is a simplified hypothetical example of how ISR operations are conducted in support of a commander’s objectives In order to gain control of the airspace within an operational environment air superiority a commander determines the operational objective to 9 Ibid Congressional Research Service 4 ISR Design for Great Power Competition find fix and target enemy air defense systems Via mission analysis analysts determine that an adversary mobile air defense system remains un-located posing a direct threat to aircraft and their achieving air superiority ISR operators at Command and Control C2 centers synchronize available intelligence capabilities assigning collection tasks to appropriate platforms and sensors while also tasking analytic nodes to rapidly make sense of collected data and generate intelligence in support of the commander’s requirement to identify and locate the missing air defense system Platform operators and analysts then collaboratively plan how best to accomplish the commander’s intent The operation begins and an array of ISR assets either operating in a single domain or multiple domains work together to find and fix the missing air defense system A SIGINT sensor collects data on the air defense system finding the general location where it is located Confirming the data an analyst then shares that data with the C2 center and other ISR sensors queuing a full-motion video FMV sensor to image the location Within the FMV field of view imagery analysts fix the air defense system noting its specific geographic location Armed with confirmation of the identity and location of the air defense system the C2 center tasks a strike aircraft to target the air defense system A strike is conducted and additional ISR assets are tasked to conduct a damage assessment confirming that the air defense system no longer poses a threat to achieving air superiority This process largely operating at human-speed can occur simultaneously or sequentially taking from several minutes to days to accomplish The U S military’s goal for the future is to conduct this process at machine speed an accelerated pace achieved by employing artificial intelligence and cloud computing At machine speed this process can be conducted in seconds to single digit minutes enabling U S and allied forces to outthink outpace and outmaneuver its adversary on the battlefield Scoping the Challenge The 2017 NSS stated that China and Russia both seek to assert their influence across the globe with the intent to undermine and supplant American leadership by cleverly operating below the threshold of armed conflict an area of global competition former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford identified as the grey zone 10 Recognizing that U S national security interests had evolved from terrorism to strategic competition the 2018 NDS focused DOD’s strategy to compete with and deter U S great power adversaries by remaining prepared to decisively win a war 11 In support of both grey zone competition and combat operations within a highly contested environment the challenge for the DOD ISR enterprise is twofold The first challenge is to develop and field capabilities that can endure a degradation in mission capacity yet remain operational facilitating collaboration among multiple platforms sensors and disruptive technologies Second the ISR enterprise must overcome challenges in collecting analyzing and sharing an exponential growth in data at machine speed 10 General Joseph Dunford Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in testimony before the U S Congress Senate Committee on Armed Services The Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Budget Request from the Department of Defense 116th Cong 1st sess March 14 2019 11 Department of Defense “Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge ” at https www defense gov Portals 1 Documents pubs 2018National-Defense-Strategy-Summary pdf Congressional Research Service 5 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Grey Zone Then-Chairman Dunford testified that China and Russia innovatively use the grey zone—the competitive space that resides between peace and war—to pursue strategic gains without provoking a conventional conflict and therefore mitigating the United States’ competitive military advantage 12 For example China’s broad lineup of actions include military intimidation paramilitary activities information operations industrial and academic espionage and economic coercion 13 Russia is also an active participant in the grey zone responsible for employing “military intimidation weaponization of social media information and cyber warfare … and funding proxy groups and political organizations hostile to Western institutions ”14 General Dunford also surmised that the collective sum of peer adversary actions in the grey zone undermine U S alliances and partnerships and the health and stability of democracies while imposing gradual and potentially irrevocable losses on the U S strategic position around the globe 15 Military ISR serves a significant role in supporting grey zone operations An array of spy satellites surveillance aircraft and ships and ground-based collection and analysis centers provide early warning to deny an adversary the opportunity to conduct a surprise strategic attack against the U S and its allies or to confirm incidents involving adversary military intimidation or paramilitary activities For example the Chinese Navy shadows and harasses neighbor-state fishing vessels operating in international waters and Russia has deployed paramilitary units to Libya in support of forces opposing the internationally recognized Libyan government 16 It also supports readiness via war plan development conducted by U S combatant commands and informs development and acquisition of future weapon systems intended to ensure continued U S military competitive advantages Military ISR also complements national intelligence gained by the U S Intelligence Community in support of national level policy Fulfilling these missions helps ensure the U S possesses an information advantage over an opposing force and helps strengthen military alliances and partnerships via intelligence sharing and therefore generating transparency and shared awareness on malign adversary actions However grey zone operations may be an area that the U S military finds itself ill-prepared to compete effectively in as it attempts to transform stove-piped ISR operations challenged with 12 General Dunford in testimony before the U S Congress Senate Committee on Armed Services March 14 2019 described the grey zone as possessing five distinct characteristics “political influence economic coercion use of cyber information operations and then military posture ” General Dunford continued declaring that within the military strategy the “competition in the grey zone is really for our partners ” where the adversary seeks “to undermine the credibility of our alliances and partnerships ” and therefore it is “critical for us to overcome in the information space overcome in cyber capabilities and then our military posture the erosion of that relationship we have with our allies ” 13 Morris Lyle J Mazzar Michael J Hornung Jeffrey W Pezard Stephanie Binnendijk Anika Kepe Marta “Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone ” RAND Corporation 2019 at https www rand org content dam rand pubs research_reports RR2900 RR2942 RAND_RR2942 pdf 14 Ibid 15 General Joseph Dunford Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in testimony before the U S Congress Senate Committee on Armed Services The Fiscal Year 2020 National Defense Authorization Budget Request from the Department of Defense 116th Cong 1st sess March 14 2019 16 Grady John “DOD Official U S Committed to Countering Chinese Military Intimidation in South East Asia ” USNI News August 7 2018 at https news usni org 2018 08 07 dod-official-u-s-committed-countering-chinesemilitary-intimidation-south-east-asia and Department of Defense “Russia Deploys Military Fighter Aircraft to Libya ” U S Africa Command May 26 2020 at https www africom mil pressrelease 32887 russia-deploys-military-fighteraircraft-to-l Congressional Research Service 6 ISR Design for Great Power Competition geographic and cyber access to monitor adversary actions and intent into day-to-day military power projection intended to deter adversaries from pursuing strategic gains 17 Stove-piped ISR operations generate challenges in both data sharing and creating a comprehensive picture of the operating environment These challenges are further exacerbated in the grey zone which is wrought with “deception and misinformation ” as adversary “military and paramilitary measures” are combined with economic statecraft political warfare information operations and other tools Countering the utilization of these tools is an especially difficult problem in that such use often occurs in the “seams” between DOD and other U S departments and agencies making them all the more difficult to address 18 Highly Contested Environment While the NSS and NDS point to a multidimensional great power competition instead of the singular challenge of military conflict with China and Russia senior DOD ISR leaders have noted that potential military conflicts with either state would significantly challenge the U S military’s ISR capabilities 19 This is because the highly contested environment is defined by sophisticated anti-access area denial A2 AD capabilities with extended range increased speed and enhanced targeting precision Potential adversary capabilities are designed to create a nonpermissive environment deny the U S military freedom of movement and mitigate the effectiveness of U S combat power within an armed conflict Both China and Russia have fielded advanced warfighting capabilities to include mobile ballistic missiles mobile air and coastal defense weapon systems cyber stealth aircraft remotely piloted aircraft advanced ISR and electronic warfare capabilities they are also pursuing emerging technologies such as hypersonics autonomous systems and artificial intelligence 20 These weapon systems and capabilities may significantly impair the current U S ISR enterprise by forcibly denying platforms and sensors both geographic and virtual access to adversary activity and data Numerous challenges exist for ISR to successfully operate within a highly contested environment For example networks platforms sensors and military personnel must be able to penetrate adversary defenses collect data analyze that data and recognize threats and targets and ultimately share that data with decisionmakers other sensors and weapons at machine-speed 21 An inability to collect analyze and share data at a speed greater than our adversary will degrade Pomerleau Mark “What the New 16th Air Force Means for Information Warfare ” C4ISRNet October 13 2019 at https www c4isrnet com dod air-force 2019 10 14 what-the-new-16th-air-force-means-for-information-warfare Within this context stove-piped intelligence includes collection and analysis of data through a single intelligence discipline e g signals intelligence geospatial intelligence human intelligence and not effectively integrated with other intelligence disciplines therefore limiting comprehensive and shared situational awareness of the battlespace across the joint force 18 National Defense Strategy Commission Providing for the Common Defense The Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission 2018 December 12 2019 at https www usip org sites default files 2018-11 providing-for-the-common-defense pdf 19 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 20 Defense Intelligence Agency China Military Power Modernizing a Force to Fight and Win January 3 2019 at http www dia mil Military-Power-Publications and Defense Intelligence Agency Russia Military Power Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations 2017 at http www dia mil Military-Power-Publications 21 Humans are limited in the speed at which they can process large amounts of data and information in a reasonable time Automating capabilities via artificial intelligence machine learning and computing power speeds processing rates far faster than human capabilities This processing speed is identified as “machine-speed ” 17 Congressional Research Service 7 ISR Design for Great Power Competition battlespace awareness and command and control decisionmaking and will have a negative impact to ensuring U S and allied forces have the freedom to attack and the freedom from attack Figure 3 China Anti-Access Area Denial Defensive Layers Source LaGrone Sam CNO Richardson Navy Shelving A2 AD Acronym USNI News October 3 2016 https news usni org 2016 10 03 cno-richardson-navy-shelving-a2ad-acronym Notes Office of Naval Intelligence image China’s anti-access area denial defensive layers consists of multiple capabilities to include but not limited to anti-ship ballistic missiles ASBM submarines surface-to-surface missiles surface-to-air missiles coastal defense cruise missiles CDCM and fighter and bomber aircraft Operating within this highly contested environment presents a significant challenge for U S and allied military forces Specific challenges for ISR include collecting target-quality data via penetrating and persistent ISR operations rapidly making sense of that data and transmitting that data to a commander weapon or weapon system to complete the find fix target kill chain at machine speed of adversary threat systems Rethinking Military Modernization Priorities A number of senior U S military leaders are rethinking modernization priorities with an aim to build a more lethal force given concerns that China and Russia may surpass the United States in military capability One such investment priority is C4ISR Investments will prioritize developing resilient survivable federated networks and information ecosystems from the tactical level up to strategic planning Investments will also prioritize capabilities to gain and exploit information deny competitors those same advantages and enable us to provide attribution while defending against and holding accountable state or non-state actors during cyberattacks 22 Concepts such as Joint All Domain Operations JADO and Joint All Domain Command and Control JADC2 are at the forefront of DOD pursuits to fulfill this priority Realizing the potential of each concept i e connecting sensors to shooters in real-time depends upon innovative technological advancements and the development of appropriate joint doctrine and 22 Department of Defense Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge undated but released January 2018 at https www defense gov Portals 1 Documents pubs 2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary pdf Congressional Research Service 8 ISR Design for Great Power Competition operational concepts The question is whether the DOD-wide modernization programs and budget requests for connecting ISR sensors to shooters match the strategies identified in the NSS and NDS Connecting Sensors to Shooters The U S military contends that future conflicts within a sophisticated highly-contested A2 AD environment will be won by the side with an information advantage enabling the ability to outpace outthink and outmaneuver adversaries across multiple domains space air land sea and cyber 23 To maintain its information advantage and dominate this new battlefield the U S military is reportedly adopting a network-centric approach connecting every sensor with every shooter so that it can move data at machine speed and overwhelm an adversary by attacking from all domains 24 However the emphasis is placed on the ability to find and fix a target not necessarily finish the target according to the Chief of Staff of the Air Force CSAF who stated “it doesn’t matter as much what mechanism is used to destroy a target as it is to be able to rapidly locate and characterize it ”25 Joint All Domain Operations JADO ISR is likely to play a central role in new approaches to commanding and communicating in military operations Initially called Multi Domain Operations and subsequently renamed JADO senior military officers and defense experts have described this concept as the “new American way of war ” potentially providing the U S a significant military advantage “over everybody in the world for a long time ”26 JADO is defined as “operations conducted across multiple domains and contested spaces to overcome an adversary’s or enemy’s strengths by presenting them with several operational and or tactical dilemmas through the combined application” of combat power 27 It describes how the U S military can counter and defeat a near-peer adversary capable of contesting the United States in all domains by converging capabilities space cyber nuclear deterrence transportation electromagnetic spectrum missile defense etc across domains environments and functions in time and space 28 JADO intends to provide commanders access to an abundance of data information and intelligence to support the integration of warfighting 23 Saltzman Chance Brig Gen USAF MDC2 Overview 2018 C2 Summit at https www mitre org sites default files publications Special-Presentation-Gen%20Chance-Saltzman%20MDC2%20Overview%20for%20MITRE-June2018 pdf 24 Honorable Heather Wilson and General David Goldfein Secretary of the Air Force and Chief of Staff of the Air Force in testimony before the U S Congress Senate Committee on Armed Services Posture of the Department of the Air Force 116th Cong 1st sess April 4 2019 25 Tirpak John A “Goldfein says 2021 Budget Buys Connectivity by Accepting Capacity Risk ” Air Force Magazine January 27 2020 at https www airforcemag com goldfein-says-2021-budget-buys-connectivity-by-acceptingcapacity-risk 26 Clark Colin Gen Hyten on the New American Way of War All Domain Operations Breaking Defense February 18 2020 at https breakingdefense com 2020 02 gen-hyten-on-the-new-american-way-of-war-all-domain-operations 27 U S Army The U S Army in Multi Domain Operations 2028 December 6 2018 https www tradoc army mil Portals 14 Documents MDO TP525-3-1_30Nov2018 pdf 28 Ibid Clark Colin Gen Hyten on the New American Way of War All Domain Operations Breaking Defense February 18 2020 at https breakingdefense com 2020 02 gen-hyten-on-the-new-american-way-of-war-all-domainoperations Congressional Research Service 9 ISR Design for Great Power Competition capabilities across all domains in order to gain physical and psychological advantages control and influence over the operational environment 29 Joint All Domain Command and Control The increased speed and reach of war combined with an exponential growth in data has led the CSAF to advocate for an enhanced command and control C2 system that will focus on situational awareness rapid decisionmaking and the ability to direct forces across all domains 30 In addition Secretary of Defense Esper recently voiced his support for an advanced C2 system and Representative Banks of the House Armed Services Committee Future of Defense Task Force highlighted the need for a “sensing intelligent and distributed command and control environment” to ensure U S military forces overmatch any potential adversary 31 In addition to FY2020 appropriations of $100 8 million for JADC2 RDT E the CSAF singled out a FY2021 budget request of $435 million to begin developing architecture and connectivity that “we need to be able to not only connect the Air Force but to connect the joint force ”32 The Joint Requirements Oversight Council responsible for achieving consensus across the services regarding acquisition priorities appointed the Air Force as the lead service for JADC2 technological testing 33 Recent testing suggests the Air Force intends to pursue the Advanced Battle Management System ABMS as a joint architecture foundation for JADC2 The initial test explored new methods for Air Force and Navy aircraft F-22 F-35 a Navy destroyer and Army air defense radar systems plus a mobile artillery system to share data and provide a fuller picture of the operating environment for a C2 element in Florida According to U S military officials the C2 cell “watched real-time data pour in and out of the command cell They observed information from platforms and people flowing instantly and simultaneously across air land sea and space that provided shared situational awareness updates as events occurred whether the information originated from jets or passing satellites or from sea and ground forces on the move ”34 29 Ibid U S Air Force CSAF Letter to Airmen March 10 2017 at https www af mil News Article-Display Article 1108931 csaf-letter-to-airmen Joint Publication 1-02 Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms defines C2 as “The exercise of authority and direction by a properly designated commander over assigned and attached forces in the accomplishment of the mission ” 31 Mehta Aaron Mark Esper on the ‘Big Pivot Point’ That Will Define the 2022 Budget ” Breaking Defense February 10 2020 at https www defensenews com smr federal-budget 2020 02 10 mark-esper-on-the-big-pivot-point-thatwill-define-the-2022-budget and Future of Defense Task Force Hearing Theories of Victory October 29 2019 at https armedservices house gov 2019 10 future-of-defense-task-force-hearing-theories-of-victory 32 Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Department of Defense Appropriations Act P L 116-93 Department of the Air Force FY 2021 Budget Overview February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 SUPPORT_ FY21%20Budget%20Overview_1 pdf ver 2020-02-10-152806-743 and Naegele Tobias “Here’s how USAF Aims to Spend $30 billion in Legacy Savings ” Air Force Magazine at November 6 2019 https www airforcemag com heres-how-usaf-aims-to-spend-30-billion-in-legacy-savings-2 33 Hitchens Theresa “OSD Joint Staff Grapple with Joint All Domain Command Breaking Defense November 14 2019 at https breakingdefense com 2019 11 osd-joint-staff-grapple-with-joint-all-domain-command 34 Ibid 30 Congressional Research Service 10 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Figure 4 Joint All Domain Command and Control Source 2019 Air Space and Cyber Conference Some analysts take a more skeptical approach to JADC2 They raise questions about technological capabilities and unrealistic ambition of fielding a network that can securely and reliably connect sensors to shooters and support C2 in a lethal electronic warfare-rich environment 35 Others question who would have decisionmaking authority across domains in JADO and question the human role in making JADC2 decisions in real time 36 Moreover not all services are convinced ABMS is a scalable solution to connect the entire joint force Army leaders believe that “ABMS cannot be the sole solution because it doesn’t account for in some cases the scale or the unique requirements of all the other services ”37 Congressional Actions on ISR Congress has taken an increasing interest in U S military capabilities vis-à-vis China and Russia The House Armed Services Committee HASC in its FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act Committee Report highlighted both the importance of airborne ISR capabilities in supporting Shattuck A J “The Pipe Dream of Effective Multi-Domain Battle ” Modern War Institute March 28 2017 at https mwi usma edu pipe-dream-effective-multi-domain-battle 36 Spears Will “A Sailors Take on Multi Domain Operations ” War on the Rocks May 21 2019 at https warontherocks com 2019 05 a-sailors-take-on-multi-domain-operations 37 Freedberg Sydney J Jr “ABMS Can’t be Sole Solution for Joint C2 Army Tells Air Force – Exclusive ” Breaking Defense January 22 2020 at https breakingdefense com 2020 01 abms-cant-be-sole-joint-c2-solution-army-tells-airforce-exclusive 35 Congressional Research Service 11 ISR Design for Great Power Competition U S military operations worldwide and a significant shortfall in the services taking an integrated approach to modernizing the ISR enterprise 38 The committee understands that responsive persistent and precise collection of operational information from the air will continue to provide an asymmetric and decisive advantage to operational commanders and tactical forces The committee also recognizes that to meet the objectives described in the National Defense Strategy the Department of Defense must modernize and adapt its ISR operating concepts and joint force U S military structure to ensure it can maneuver fight and prevail in highly contested environments However the committee notes that there is an apparent lack of an integrated joint approach to the Department’s ISR modernization strategy 39 Furthermore the HASC launched a new bipartisan Future of Defense Task Force to examine how to maintain the DOD technological edge against Russia and China 40 The new group is chartered to “review U S defense assets and capabilities and assess the state of the national security innovation base to meet emerging threats and ensure long-term strategic overmatch of competitors ”41 The effort which began in October 2019 explores disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence biotechnology fifth-generation telecommunications technology 5G and hypersonic weapons 42 Task force findings are expected to be released in May 2020 In March 2020 the Senate Armed Services Committee SASC received posture statement testimony from senior leaders across each of the services who delineated their FY2021 investment strategies in support of implementation of the NDS The committee focused on all domain service initiatives to meet the demands of the NDS and great power competition 43 In consideration of potential cuts to aircraft inventory Ranking Member Reed specifically stated that “any Air Force proposal deserves our careful consideration but we must consider it against the recent history of abrupt Air Force changes of direction” on several aircraft programs to include the unmanned RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper ISR aircraft 44 In addition some Senators focused their questioning on the continued capability of legacy aircraft the implementation of the Air Force’s Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan and cuts to 38 U S Congress Report of the Committee on Armed Services Committee House of Representatives on H R 2500 June 2019 https armedservices house gov _cache files 0 f 0fb5f8dd-a7c9-45bd-a187-c20cc2f66ef5 18AAE9B54DC35E2E04FAFAE121D80E5D fy20-ndaa-committee-report pdf 39 Ibid The joint force consists of all the U S military services and branches Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps and Space Force 40 Gould Joe “Congressional Task Force to Examine Long Term Defense Strategy for Russia China ” Defense News October 22 2019 at https www defensenews com congress 2019 10 22 moulton-banks-helm-new-future-of-defensetask-force 41 Ibid 42 Ibid 43 U S Congress Opening Statement of U S Senator James Inhofe Chairman Senate Armed Services Committee To receive testimony on the posture of the Department of the Army in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2021 March 26 2020 at https www armed-services senate gov imo media doc Inhofe_03-26-20 pdf and Opening Statement of U S Senator Jack Reed Ranking Member Senate Armed Services Committee To receive testimony on the posture of the Department of the Army in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2021 March 26 2020 at https www armed-services senate gov imo media doc Reed_03-26-20 pdf 44 U S Congress Stenographic Transcript Before the Committee on Armed Services Hearing to Receive Testimony on Posture of The Navy in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2021 and the Future Years Defense Program United States Senate March 4 2020 https www armed-services senate gov imo media doc 2007_03-03-2020 pdf and Stenographic Transcript Before the Committee on Armed Services Hearing to Receive Testimony on Posture of The Air Force in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2021 and the Future Years Defense Program United States Senate March 3 2020 https www armed-services senate gov imo media doc 20-07_03-03-2020 pdf Congressional Research Service 12 ISR Design for Great Power Competition unmanned ISR programs across the services They also focused on the need to ensure that command control communications computers and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance C4ISR systems can provide tactical forces with targeting data needed to perform their mission within a highly contested environment 45 Moreover in April 2020 Representative Mac Thornberry ranking member of the HASC released a discussion draft chartering an Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative calling for $6 09 billion in FY2021 to be spent in the Indo-Pacific region on a number of defense capabilities to include ISR programs 46 The draft legislation called for $378 6 million to “enhance indications and warning sensor packages the development of future intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance platforms and interoperable processing exploitation and dissemination architectures for the United States Info-Pacific Command ”47 The aim of this effort is to “enhance U S deterrence of China similar to what the European Deterrence Initiative has done for Europe against Russia ”48 Similarly SASC member Senator Tom Cotton proposed the Forging Operational Resistance to Chinese Expansion FORCE Act 49 The proposal calls for providing the DOD an additional $6 1 billion to “regain the advantage in the Indo-Pacific” and $9 2 billion to support military modernization for great power competition 50 ISR Design for Great Power Competition At the Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel of the 2019 Intelligence National Security Alliance Summit Army Air Force and Navy intelligence leaders discussed the comprehensive challenges facing military intelligence in the new global strategic environment They concluded that the current DOD ISR enterprise and associated operational concepts are not yet postured to contend with great power competition 51 The ISR enterprise’s focus on CT and COIN since Ibid Senator Hawley specifically asked General David H Berger USMC Commandant “From an ISR and C2 standpoint what would you say General are the most important programs for ensuring that Marine Corps fire units have the targeting data they need to perform the sea denial mission ” The General responded “I do not care where I get my fire data solution from or what ISR platform I just need the data ” 46 U S Congress House Armed Services Committee Republicans Fact Sheet Thornberry Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative at https republicans-armedservices house gov sites republicans armedservices house gov files IPDI%20Fact%20Sheet%20 pdf 47 U S Congress House Committee on Armed Services Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative Draft Discussion 116th Cong 2nd sess April 15 2020 at https republicans-armedservices house gov sites republicans armedservices house gov files IPDI%20Legislation pdf 48 U S Congress House Armed Services Committee Republicans Fact Sheet Thornberry Indo-Pacific Deterrence Initiative at https republicans-armedservices house gov sites republicans armedservices house gov files IPDI%20Fact%20Sheet%20 pdf 49 U S Congress Cotton FORCE Act Surges $43 Billion to Thwart Chinese Military Aspirations in Indo-Pacific at https www cotton senate gov files documents Package%20IV%20Summary_FINAL pdf 50 Ibid According to Sen Cotton’s proposal the $6 1 billion to regain the advantage in the Indo-Pacific is intended to fund joint force lethality force design and posture strengthen allies and partners exercises experimentation and innovation and logistics and security enablers The $9 2 billion intends to support naval lethality air superiority ground overmatch and missile defense and advanced technology Although the draft bill does not specifically address intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance ISR focus areas that intend to regain an advantage in the Indo-Pacific and increase military capabilities for great power competition could also support ISR modernization The summary of the bill text is available at https www cotton senate gov files documents Package%20IV%20Summary_FINAL pdf 51 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A According to https www insaonline org about INSA is the leading nonpartisan nonprofit trade association for driving public-private partnerships to advance intelligence and national security priorities The INSA Military Service Priorities panelists discussed the importance of collaboration across military branches in order to have 45 Congressional Research Service 13 ISR Design for Great Power Competition September 11 2001 has generated an ISR capability and process designed for operations in a permissive environment where the U S military controlled the timing and tempo of operations at relatively minimal risk Given adversary advancements in mobile A2 AD weapon systems the U S military now aims to develop and field a resilient ISR enterprise that can execute digital-age intelligence operations at machine speed The primary aim shared by the service intelligence chiefs is to shift from a manpower-intensive permissive environment force to an automation-intensive high-threat environment force that is cost-effective can reliably find and fix elusive targets and can enable an interoperable U S military to gain and maintain the information advantage across the grey zone and highly contested environments 52 Common themes across the services describing the future DOD ISR enterprise are joint all-domain operations an overwhelming abundance of data disruptive technology and human capital However each service faces significant challenges with harnessing data to realize the potential of disruptive technology and shaping the future workforce to employ these warfighting capabilities Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan In 2018 the Secretary of the Air Force and the CSAF approved the Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 This document acknowledged that the current Air Force ISR enterprise was not positioned to meet the full intent of the NDS and that potential adversaries’ development of advanced threat capabilities highlights seams and gaps of past ISR investments which were focused on CT and COIN operations 53 The ISR Dominance Flight Plan reorients the Air Force ISR enterprise from a manpower-intensive capability designed for Cold War and CT COIN operations toward an enterprise operating at machine speed within a potentially highthreat environment The full aim of the ISR Dominance Flight Plan is to meet NDS intent by increasing the role of emerging and disruptive technology and analytic expertise in the development of new ISR capabilities The Air Force contends that it will achieve this through two major efforts 1 generating a balanced ISR enterprise designed to operate within the grey zone and highly contested environments and 2 deploying new tools and trained airmen resulting in increased readiness and lethality 54 ISR Rebalance The Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for ISR and Cyber Effects Operations teamed with the Air Force Studies Analyses and Assessments directorate and two federally funded research and development centers to generate an ISR rebalance review The review intended to provide recommendations aimed at transforming the current CT COIN focused enterprise toward a set of capabilities consisting of updated legacy-manned aircraft and new classified platforms and sensors able to operate successfully against U S great power competitors 55 An initial assessment the most effective integration of emerging technologies and innovative warfare 52 Ibid 53 U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 54 Ibid 55 Based on author discussions with Kenneth Bray Headquarters Air Force ISR and Cyber Effects Operations Acting Congressional Research Service 14 ISR Design for Great Power Competition was concluded in 2018 with focus on geospatial intelligence capabilities an additional assessment consisting of broader options is currently underway 56 Figure 5 Air Force ISR Rebalance Source U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 Notes To position the Air Force ISR enterprise to generate an information advantage the ISR Dominance Flight Plan outlines Air Force resources for future investments The ISR Rebalance Review aims to realign specific investments in CT COIN capabilities toward assets more appropriate for operations within the grey zone and combat operations within a highly contested environment Future Capability Investments Future capability investments called “pathways” by the Air Force intend to drive change and increase readiness and lethality via 10 unique initiatives The first pathway Disruptive Technologies Opportunities is highlighted by three initiatives 57    Machine Intelligence MI MI is about human-machine teaming The goal of this initiative is to create a system in which intelligence analysts use artificial intelligence machine learning AI ML to learn new insights ask new questions and discover and implement new solutions 58 Data Strategy This effort aims to ensure Air Force ISR data are discoverable accessible interoperable with joint data systems and secure A data strategy will directly support automation and serves as the foundation for effective MI 59 Agile Capability Development ACD ACD intends to rapidly develop and field new capabilities and technologies at the precise point in time of need the speed of via prototyping experimenting and software development 60 In support of this pathway ISR Modernization and Automation Development was appropriated $19 million in FY2020 and the Air Force requested an additional $19 3 million for FY2021 both Associate Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance and Cyber Effects Operations and Chris Moore Headquarters Air Force Studies Analyses and Assessments Operations Research Analyst May 29 2019 56 Ibid 57 U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 58 Ibid The DOD AI Strategy defines AI as “the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence ” Machine learning a subfield of AI allows for machines to learn from data 59 Ibid 60 Ibid Congressional Research Service 15 ISR Design for Great Power Competition to support RDT E of algorithmic warfare AI ML deep learning computer vision and to automate ISR analyst workflows 61 This investment will directly tackle the challenge of analysts spending 80% of their time searching for data and 20% making sense of the data 62 In pursuit of the second pathway Bolster Lethality Readiness the Air Force states that the service “requires multi-role cross-domain ISR collection in order to win in the highly contested environment ”63 The Air Force anticipates future investments in “ultra-high ultra-persistent ultrafast air assets hypersonics directed energy long-endurance balloons penetrating persistent ISR space operations publicly available information and cyber operations ”64 This pathway is highlighted by five initiatives 1 High Altitude This initiative intends to “migrate away from less capable traditional ISR systems and reprioritize” toward survivable and “interoperable capabilities ”65 2 Penetrating Persistent and Multi-role Remotely Piloted Aircraft This initiative intends to “repurpose and retool traditional ISR capabilities” with disruptive technology that can successfully penetrate adversary airspace undetected and provide persistent collection on the battlespace 66 3 ISR From For Space Operations This initiative aims to provide “enhanced persistence resilience maneuverability and flexibility” for “future space-based capabilities” to include “U S government owned allied and commercial space systems ”67 It includes generating ISR from the space domain to support joint operations and generating intelligence to support U S Space Force operations 4 Publicly Available Information PAI With the “global rising use of social media ” PAI is quickly becoming an increasingly important source of battle space information providing insights into adversary intent capability and operational execution 68 5 ISR From For Cyberspace Operations ISR-informed cyber capabilities will support lethal and nonlethal actions 69 They include generating ISR from the cyber domain to support joint operations and producing intelligence to support offensive and defensive cyber operations 61 U S Congress Fiscal Year 2020 Department of Defense Appropriations Act P L 116-93 and U S Air Force Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Air Force Justification Book Volume 3b of 3 Research Development Test Evaluation Air Force Vol-III Part 2 February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 RDTE_ FY21%20Air%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20IIIb%20%20updated pdf ver 2020-02-12-125427-660 62 U S Air Force Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Air Force Justification Book Volume 3b of 3 Research Development Test Evaluation Air Force Vol-III Part 2 February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 RDTE_ FY21%20Air%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20IIIb%20%20updated pdf ver 2020-02-12-125427-660 63 U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 64 Ibid 65 Ibid 66 Ibid 67 Ibid 68 Ibid 69 Ibid Congressional Research Service 16 ISR Design for Great Power Competition To support this pathway the Air Force FY2021 budget request aims to fund aircraft and sensor upgrades to the unmanned RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 40 wide-area surveillance platform and the manned RC-135 Rivet Joint signals intelligence platform 70 The Air Force also plans to eliminate some antiquated ISR assets and operations and to retire 24 Global Hawk Block 20 30 aircraft and reduce 10 unmanned MQ-9 combat air patrols 71 Furthermore the Air Force no longer plans to purchase the MQ-9 beyond FY2020 72 This suggests the Air Force may continue to employ the U2 as its primary high-altitude multi-intelligence platform and that it may already have a followon unmanned platform ready to replace the MQ-9 in the coming years The final pathway Foundational Capabilities focuses on workforce development and outreach to industry and academia to drive culture change across the ISR enterprise 73 This pathway is highlighted by two initiatives 1 Human Capital This initiative focuses on force development and talent management of ISR Airmen with the intent to recruit develop and retain a highly capable and competitive workforce 74 2 Partnerships This initiative acknowledges that the Air Force must partner with global commercial academic scientific service and international partnerships to achieve the ISR Flight Plan vision 75 Collaborative Sensing Grid The Collaborative Sensing Grid is a data-centric network of multidomain platforms sensors disruptive technologies and airmen that are interconnected and working together to provide ISR across an operating environment Designs for the sensing grid call for a resilient penetrating and persistent capability that employs manned and unmanned platforms equipped with disruptive technologies capable of collecting fusing and linking commanders to real-time information plus cueing data from sensors-to-sensors and weapons to support rapid targeting of the adversary 76 This initiative is aligned with the Air Force’s development of the Advanced Battle Management System the network intended to support Joint All Domain Command and Control and enable sensor-to-shooter operations Air Force Distributed Common Ground System Given the exponential growth in data the Air Force is rethinking how it conducts intelligence processing exploitation analysis and dissemination The primary entity responsible for this mission is the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System AF DCGS AF DCGS “employs a global communications architecture that connects multiple intelligence platforms and sensors” 70 Department of the Air Force FY 2021 Budget Overview February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 SUPPORT_ FY21%20Budget%20Overview_1 pdf ver 2020-02-10-152806-743 71 U S Air Force The Department of the Air Force FY21 Budget Air and Space Force Design for Great Power Competition undated but released February 2020 72 Cohen Rachel S “Abrupt end to MQ-9 Production Surprise General Atomics ” Air Force Magazine February 26 2020 at https www airforcemag com abrupt-end-to-mq-9-production-surprises-general-atomics 73 U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 74 Ibid The term Airmen encompasses the entirety of the Air Force workforce to include officers enlisted and Department of the Air Force civilians 75 Ibid 76 Ibid Congressional Research Service 17 ISR Design for Great Power Competition with Airmen charged with generating near-real time intelligence 77 The weapon system is undergoing a modernization effort from a closed proprietary based capability to a governmentowned open architecture framework that allows AF DCGS analysts to contend with data growth by capitalizing on AI ML and cloud computing 78 Ongoing modernization aims to speed exploitation via automation and advance human-machine teaming to support analysis AF DCGS was appropriated $25 million for RDT E $116 million for procurement in FY2020 totaling $141 for FY2020 79 The Air Force requested an additional $158 9 million for FY2021 to support development and procurement of its new open architecture network hardware and software capabilities in support of ongoing CT COIN and grey zone operations and in preparation to deliver intelligence in a highly contested fight 80 Information Warfare To contend with the cognitive challenge from the exponential growth in data presented by the new global strategic environment the Air Force created its first Information Warfare command organization known as 16th Air Force 16 AF Air Forces Cyber 81 The change is aimed at modernizing the Air Force for a new approach to warfare one Air Force official described it as shifting from one of attrition to cognition 82 The command consolidates a series of capabilities and disciplines to include ISR wings cyber wings a weather wing and reconnaissance wings encompassing assets like the RQ-4 Global Hawk and U-2 spy plane to provide a more integrated and synchronized information warfare capability 83 Other Views Some analysts have taken a skeptical view of whether the Air Force is serious about ISR The service culture arguably “values ISR significantly below fighters and bombers ” although ISR is identified as one of five service core missions 84 The other core missions are air and space superiority rapid global mobility global strike and command and control Analysts are concerned that service leaders will “fall back on an organizational culture and history that does 77 U S Air Force Air Force Distributed Common Ground System October 13 2015 https www af mil About-Us Fact-Sheets Display Article 104525 air-force-distributed-common-ground-system 78 Brigadier General Gagnon Gregory and Lt Col Smagh Nishawn “How ISR Airmen Can Work Together for Persistent ISR ” C4ISRNet October 8 2019 at https www c4isrnet com opinion 2019 10 08 how-airmen-can-worktogether-for-persistent-isr 79 Fiscal Year 2020 Department of Defense Appropriations Act P L 116-93 80 U S Air Force Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Air Force Justification Book Volume 3b of 3 Research Development Test Evaluation Air Force Vol-III Part 2 February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 RDTE_ FY21%20Air%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20IIIb%20%20updated pdf ver 2020-02-12-125427-660 81 Pomerleau Mark “What the New 16 th Air Force Means for Information Warfare ” C4ISRNet October 13 2019 at https www c4isrnet com dod air-force 2019 10 14 what-the-new-16th-air-force-means-for-information-warfare 82 Ibid 83 Ibid The 557th Weather Wing is the lead Air Force meteorology center It provides environmental information and awareness in support of the Air Force Joint Force combatant commands and the Intelligence Community 84 Stiegel Robert “Is the Air Force Serious About Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ” War on the Rocks June 25 2019 at https warontherocks com 2019 06 is-the-air-force-serious-about-intelligence-surveillance-andreconnaissance Congressional Research Service 18 ISR Design for Great Power Competition not value the ISR mission or capabilities ” and “divert resources from combat-proven ISR capabilities” to support funding for additional fighter and bomber aircraft 85 The Air Force’s vision for a next-generation ISR enterprise depends on disruptive technologies perhaps even leaps in capability to enable a smaller pool of airmen to sift through an exponential increase in data while being expected to generate a greater amount of actionable intelligence One such leap is the application of AI ML but the Intelligence Community and DOD are “still awaiting solid results” from AI ML 86 Air Force analysts understand that achieving the lofty vision of a collaborative sensing grid cannot be reached without harnessing the promise of AI ML and cloud computing technology Space Force The Air Force ISR Dominance Flight Plan was published prior to the establishment of the U S Space Force and therefore incorporated ISR From For Space Operations within its strategy This is a significant challenge and area of investment for the U S military as China and Russia have both initiated significant investments in their space and counter-space capabilities to mitigate U S advantages in the space domain Space Situational Awareness Space Situational Awareness SSA is the intelligence driven capability to detect track and identify objects in earth orbit The space domain has become increasingly congested and contested and to ensure effective SSA “sensors need access to intelligence” in order to prepare the Space Force to fight and win in the space domain and support operations in other domains 87 SSA serves as the foundation for U S space control via surveillance of space objects and activities by gathering intelligence on adversary space operations When paired with sensors and information integration capabilities within the SSA Space Surveillance Network SSA systems can surveil objects in orbit to provide early warning for satellite attack space treaty monitoring and technical intelligence gathering 88 SSA is a significant capability improvement as the U S military is increasingly dependent upon space for intelligence position navigation and timing capabilities communications capabilities and missile warning capabilities The Space Force requested $44 8 million for FY2021 to support RDT E of SSA 89 85 Ibid Ibid 87 Salinas Erin “Space Situational Awareness is Space Battle Management ” Air Force Space Command May 16 2018 at https www afspc af mil News Article-Display Article 1523196 space-situational-awareness-is-space-battlemanagement and CRS Report R43353 Threats to U S National Security Interests in Space Orbital Debris Mitigation and Removal by Steven A Hildreth and Allison Arnold 88 U S Air Force Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Air Force Justification Book Volume 1 of 1 Research Development Test and Evaluation Space Force at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 RDTE_ FY21%20Space%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation pdf ver 2020-02-11083608-887 89 Ibid 86 Congressional Research Service 19 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Ballistic Missile Warning System The Space Force requested $2 3 billion in FY2021 RDT E funding for the development of a next-generation Overhead Persistent Infrared OPIR ballistic missile warning system 90 This amount represents nearly an $800 million increase above FY2020 appropriations 91 The FY2021 request intends to develop the next generation of survivable space-based missile warning OPIR platforms 92 The Space Force contends that this program will deliver improved missile warning capabilities that are more survivable against emerging Chinese and Russian threats 93 Army According to the Army JADO intends to provide commanders access to an abundance of data information and intelligence to support the integration of warfighting capabilities across all domains in order to gain physical and psychological advantages control and influence over the operational environment 94 In effort to achieve JADO capabilities the Secretary of the Army and the Chief of Staff of the Army established eight Cross Functional Teams CFT to drive requirements development and modernization of Army warfighting capabilities 95 90 Ibid Ibid 92 Ibid The FY2021 request intends to implement the direction of the Joint Requirements Oversight Council Memorandum JROCM 130-17 dated December 21 2017 93 Ibid 94 U S Army The U S Army in Multi Domain Operations 2028 December 6 2018 https www tradoc army mil Portals 14 Documents MDO TP525-3-1_30Nov2018 pdf 95 U S Army Army Directive 2017-24 Cross-Functional Team Pilot In Support of Materiel Development October 6 2017 at https armypubs army mil epubs DR_pubs DR_a pdf web ARN6101_AD2017-24_Web_Final pdf 91 Congressional Research Service 20 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Figure 6 Army Cross-Functional Teams Source U S Army “Army Directive 2017-24 Cross-Functional Team Pilot In Support of Materiel Development ” October 6 2017 at https armypubs army mil epubs DR_pubs DR_a pdf web ARN6101_AD2017-24_Web_Final pdf Notes Army Directive 2017-24 established the Cross Functional Teams The CFTs are led by U S Army Futures Command which is responsible for driving requirements development and modernization ISR Task Force The ISR Task Force established in 2019 and led by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence Lieutenant General Scott Berrier performs a complimentary and enabling role to the CFTs by providing intelligence capabilities and resources to support them 96 Its mission is to explore “established requirements for intelligence operations within a multi domain operating environment and develop sensors concepts and techniques ” with emphasis on executing JADO against a peer adversary within a highly contested environment 97 As the task force’s work progresses it will also aim to capitalize on complimentary capabilities across the U S military and the Intelligence Community Lieutenant General Berrier and the ISR Task Force have identified four modernization priorities as the service transitions its focus from COIN CT operations toward great power competition 1 space 2 multidomain sensing system 3 terrestrial layer system TLS and 4 Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node TITAN Together these capabilities are designed to connect sensors to shooters and enable execution of joint all domain operations 98 Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 97 Ibid 98 Ibid 96 Congressional Research Service 21 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Space The Army’s first modernization initiative space is a joint effort between the Army and the National Reconnaissance Office NRO The plan calls for use of NRO prototype satellites for tasking and direct downlink of ISR assets operating in low earth orbit 99 The current intent is to inform requirements development improve partnerships and inform future investments for capabilities that will provide persistent and penetrating satellite-based geospatial and signals intelligence coverage of adversary actions to spark Army intelligence operations in support of long-range fires and maneuver 100 The pursuit of low earth orbit ISR satellites for operations within a highly contested environment suggests the Army plans to field a considerable number of platforms some of which may even be designed as cost-effective attributable capabilities that can be reused or employed as expendable resources An $86 8 million line item is budgeted for this effort in FY2021 101 Multi-Domain Sensor System Operating in the air domain and led by the Army Intelligence and Security Command the MultiDomain Sensor System MDSS is pursuing manned and unmanned aerial systems capable of operating at high and medium altitudes 102 Aircraft would employ various geospatial full-motion video and technical intelligence sensors to identify targets and advanced signals deep in enemy territory and drive long-range precision targeting 103 According to the Commander of the Army Intelligence Center of Excellence the service wants “smart sensors that are tied down to shooters to close that gap to when we see the enemy to when we kill the enemy ”104 Future platform options for MDSS include high-altitude maneuverable balloons gliders and a joint effort with the Navy on the P-8 Poseidon program 105 Sensor options include synthetic aperture radar and moving target identification sensors enabled with AI that can rapidly and reliably identify enemy movements to enable rapid targeting of prioritized targets 106 A $52 million line item is budgeted for MDSS in FY2021 to launch sensor development and prototyping 107 99 Based on CRS discussions with John J Strycula and William Frederick Army G2 ISR Task Force December 20 2019 100 Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 101 U S Army Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Army Justification Book of Research Development Test and Evaluation Army RDT E Budget Activity 4 accessed February 12 2020 at https www asafm army mil Portals 72 Documents BudgetMaterial 2021 Base%20Budget rdte RDTE_BA_4_FY_2021_PB_RDTE_Vol%202_Budget_Activity_4 pdf 102 Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 103 Ibid 104 Pomerleau Mark “The Army Targets Systems to ‘see’ 1000 miles ” C4ISRNet April 2 2019 at https www c4isrnet com c2-comms 2019 04 02 the-army-targets-systems-to-see-1000-miles 105 Based on CRS discussions with John J Strycula and Major William Frederick Army G2 ISR Task Force December 20 2019 106 Ibid 107 U S Army Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Army Justification Book of Research Development Test and Evaluation Army RDT E Budget Activity 4 accessed February 12 2020 at https www asafm army mil Portals 72 Documents BudgetMaterial 2021 Base%20Budget rdte RDTE_BA_4_FY_2021_PB_RDTE_Vol%202_Budget_Activity_4 pdf Congressional Research Service 22 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Terrestrial Layer System Led by the Army Intelligence Center of Excellence the Terrestrial Layer System TLS aims to modernize current ground-based signals intelligence collection systems to converge with electronic warfare and cyber into a combined set of Information Warfare capabilities 108 Senior Army intelligence officials state that TLS “should be able to not only sense the environment but employ some type of action such as electronic attack or cyber capability ”109 Employed by military intelligence electronic warfare units and cyber-electromagnetic activities teams at the Brigade Combat Team level TLS is projected to be fielded on vehicles enabling mobility a necessary attribute to optimize system survivability in a highly contested environment 110 In FY2021 a $22 8 million line item is budgeted for TLS to support RDT E of component level technologies such as antennas radios software architectures plus signals electronic warfare and cyber modernization 111 Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node To leverage the abundance of multidomain data collected via Space MDSS and TLS as well as by commercial Joint and Intelligence Community partners the Army is pursuing development of the Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node TITAN The Army intends that TITAN serve as a ground-based intelligence system designed to rapidly process data and disseminate targetable intelligence directly to tactical weapon systems deployed across the battlefield and generate situational awareness for battlefield commanders 112 This AI ML-assisted mobile intelligence ground station will shorten find fix and target timelines by tying deep sensing to Army longrange precision strike options to defeat A2 AD threats and provide standoff to optimize survivability of soldiers and warfighting capabilities 113 A $30 million line item is budgeted to build two prototypes in FY2022 followed by system fielding in FY2023 and FY2024 114 Distributed Common Ground System—Army According to Lieutenant General Berrier the Army is also emphasizing improving analytic capabilities and data management “We can have the most pristine sensors in the world ” he said “and if you don’t have the right analytics and cloud computing to sort all that data you are in Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 109 Pomerleau Mark “The Army Wants to Build a Better Signals Intelligence Force ” C4ISRNet July 19 2018 at https www c4isrnet com intel-geoint 2018 07 19 the-army-wants-to-build-a-better-signals-intelligence-force 110 Ibid 111 U S Army Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Army Justification Book of Other Procurement Army Communications and Electronics Equipment Budget Activity 2 accessed February 12 2020 at https www asafm army mil Portals 72 Documents BudgetMaterial 2021 Base%20Budget Procurement OPA_BA_2_FY2021_PB_Other_Procurement_BA2_Communications_and_Electronics pdf 112 Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 113 Ibid 114 U S Army Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Army Justification Book of Research Development Test and Evaluation Army RDT E Budget Activity 4 accessed February 12 2020 at https www asafm army mil Portals 72 Documents BudgetMaterial 2021 Base%20Budget rdte RDTE_BA_4_FY_2021_PB_RDTE_Vol%202_Budget_Activity_4 pdf and Amble John Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcastintelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 108 Congressional Research Service 23 ISR Design for Great Power Competition trouble ”115 The Army possesses its own Distributed Common Ground System capability called DCGS-Army DCGS-A a legacy platform developed before the terror attacks on September 11 However this program will serve as the foundation for “capability drops ” or small bundles of capability upgrades that take advantage of agile acquisition resulting in the opportunity to field enhanced analytic tools and improved data management more quickly 116 The first capability drop focuses on delivering DCGS-A enhancements for the battalion It will increase mobility by replacing roughly 500 pounds of equipment with three laptops which act as servers connected to the intelligence architecture to support analytic and intelligence planning functions 117 The second capability drop is designed to fix the data problem The Army currently possesses 13 disparate databases across multiple theaters and is aiming to consolidate data using joint data standards into three cloud ready nodes in the Pacific Europe and in the United States 118 This provides an opportunity to improve data access maximize AI ML capabilities and speed advanced analytics to support sensor to shooter operations In FY2020 the Army received appropriations for $28 8 million in RDT E and $166 6 million in procurement funds to support DCGS-A 119 A $199 6 million line item is budgeted for the program in FY2021 which includes a $30 6 million program reduction 120 Science and Technology Focus To leverage emerging technologies accelerate modernization and support pursuit of Army ISR Task Force lines of effort the Army G-2 established science and technology focus areas to continually refine industry government and academia’s understanding of Army Intelligence areas of interest The focus areas include a foundation rooted in data information and knowledge collection assets analysis automation interoperability and training 121 Other Views Notably missing from the list of Army CFT priorities is ISR Although “intelligence” is listed within the fourth priority the Army emphasis is on network modernization development of a command post common environment and mobility and survivability General John Murray commander of Army Futures Command stated “I get criticized all the time because we don't have an intelligence cross-functional team ” which led to the creation of the Army ISR Task Force 122 The lack of a dedicated ISR CFT may negatively affect the Army’s initiative to develop and field the platforms and sensors necessary to generate target-quality data for long-range precision fires and other associated Army warfighting functions Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 116 Ibid 117 Ibid 118 Ibid 119 Fiscal Year 2020 Department of Defense Appropriations Act P L 116-93 120 U S Army Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Army Justification Book of Research Development Test and Evaluation Army RDT E Budget Activity 4 accessed February 12 2020 at https www asafm army mil Portals 72 Documents BudgetMaterial 2021 Base%20Budget rdte RDTE_BA_4_FY_2021_PB_RDTE_Vol%202_Budget_Activity_4 pdf 121Amble John “Intelligence and the Future Battlefield with Lt Gen Scott Berrier ” Modern War Institute October 25 2019 at https mwi usma edu mwi-podcast-intelligence-future-battlefield-lt-gen-scott-berrier 122 Tressel Ashley “Army has new ISR Task Force ” Inside Defense May 7 2019 at https insidedefense com insider army-has-new-isr-task-force 115 Congressional Research Service 24 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Navy Information Warfare Over the past decade the Navy has arguably generated the most mature Information Warfare capability among the services Organized around the core concept of information naval intelligence and information technology supports the Navy’s Information Warfare priorities of battlespace awareness assured C2 integrated fires and cyber According to Rear Admiral Steven Parode Director Navy Warfare Integration Directorate Office of the Chief of Naval Operations naval intelligence aims to support the service’s Information Warfare implementation plan and build on the service’s previous analytic expertise to ensure U S forces possess advantageous battlespace awareness across the maritime domain 123 To support ISR sensors processor development the Navy requested $280 million for FY2021 down from $342 million requested and $357 million appropriated in FY2020 124 Airborne Platforms The Navy continues its transition away from manned airborne ISR platforms and is expanding its inventory of unmanned airborne ISR platforms The EP-3E ARIES II a manned ISR platform responsible for signals intelligence collection will be replaced by the MQ-4C Triton The MQ4C a long-endurance high-altitude platform akin to the Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk will assume the signals intelligence mission in FY2022 and continue to execute its wide area maritime surveillance mission 125 However the current budget submission reflects an MQ-4C production pause in FY2021 $150 5 million and FY2022 $95 7 million deferring further procurement of the multi-intelligence capable platform and sensor configuration until FY2023 $624 9 million 126 Surface Vessels For surface ships the Navy requested $66 3 million in FY2021 to fund procurement of six Ship Signals Exploitation Equipment systems SSEE this funding will also support procurement of electronic warfare capabilities 127 SSEE is designed to enhance the signals intelligence capabilities of its surface fleet aiding in detection collection processing and display of adversary communications and actions in the battlespace 128 The Navy is also investing in surface unmanned capabilities such as Large and Medium Unmanned Surface Vehicles which are designed to carry 123 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 124 U S Navy Department of the Navy FY 2021 President’s Budget February 10 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres DON_Press_Brief pdf 125 U S Navy Highlights of the Department of the Navy FY 2021 Budget Office of Budget – 2020 February 10 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres Highlights_book pdf 126 U S Navy Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Justification Book Volume 1 of 3 Aircraft Procurement Navy Budget Activities 01−04 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres APN_BA1-4_BOOK pdf 127 U S Navy Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Justification Book Volume 2 of 5 Other Procurement Navy BA 02 February 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres OPN_BA2_BOOK pdf 128 Ibid Congressional Research Service 25 ISR Design for Great Power Competition various payloads to include ISR sensors 129 The service requested $21 5 billion for modernization a 5 1% increase in funding for FY2021 aimed at investing in emerging technology such as unmanned platforms and AI that can connect the force and support intelligence 130 Data Fusion Technology Naval intelligence partnered with the Chief of Naval Research also has a focus on developing and fielding AI ML capabilities The service’s focus is on data and the integration of emerging technologies with an emphasis on getting machines to plow through massive amounts of structured and unstructured data 131 An emerging AI capability called Minotaur and designed by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory is an automated intelligence correlation processor that can be installed on platforms or in control stations to analyze data derived from multiple sensors across domains 132 Fielded on a handful of deployed platforms Minotaur may prove supportive of large-scale navy Information Warfare and information superiority needs within a vast and active maritime security and operational environment It can automatically optimize data collection against an object or target and enable an analyst to quickly filter and prioritize data by varying characteristics such as size speed direction and location of an object or target 133 This set of features enables real-time data fusion at machine speed to find and fix adversary targets and support rapid decisionmaking by commanders Minotaur received $5 million in FY2020 appropriations and the Navy requested an additional $5 million in FY2021 procurement funds 134 129 CRS Report R45757 Navy Large Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles Background and Issues for Congress by Ronald O'Rourke 130 Ibid 131 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 132 Anderson Sharon “Delivering Decisive Understanding to the Commander ” DON CIO April-June 2016 at https www doncio navy mil mobile ContentView aspx ID 7899 TypeID 21 133 Ibid 134 U S Navy Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Justification Book Volume 2 of 5 Other Procurement Navy BA 02 February 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres OPN_BA2_BOOK pdf Congressional Research Service 26 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Figure 7 Maritime Security and Operational Environment Source U S Navy Department of the Navy FY2021 President’s Budget undated but released February 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres DON_Press_Brief pdf Human Capital To ensure sailor readiness the Navy has emphasized investments in human capital in order to produce a digital age workforce The Navy intends to address this critical need by producing “an agile trained and intelligent workforce” able to “sense collect understand and act decisively ”135 To reach this goal the Navy is emphasizing digital age training at all levels beginning at basic training and extending to those sailors and marines pursuing advanced academic degrees 136 In addition to training and educating its workforce for the digital age the Navy intends to generate an “ecosystem of digital innovation centers” and to integrate the “information environment into all its career paths” as information superiority underpins all naval operations in the future 137 The digital “innovation centers will bring together teams of Sailors and Marines to develop solutions through user-centered design in Development-Security-Operations with known tools and libraries ” much like the Air Force Kessel Run initiative 138 Other Views Some analysts argue that while the Navy has placed added emphasis on Information Warfare the funding requests to advance the necessary capabilities have not matched this emphasis Analysts argue that “Information Warfare requirements usually end up ‘bolting on’ to existing programs” 135 U S Navy Information Warfare Community at https www public navy mil bupers-npc enlisted community crypto_it Pages default aspx 136 U S Navy Department of the Navy Information Superiority Vision February 21 2020 at https news usni org 2020 02 21 department-of-the-navy-information-superiority-vision 137 Ibid 138 Ibid Congressional Research Service 27 ISR Design for Great Power Competition and are “not included in initial requirements capability documents or they are the first things sacrificed when cuts are made ”139 The message the Navy is sending is that Information Warfare matters doctrinally but not fiscally 140 This may prove a challenging obstacle to overcome as the Navy not dissimilar from the other services is a platform-centric service Marine Corps Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations The objective of the future Marine Corps operational concept Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations EABO is to “mitigate peer competitors’ anti-access area denial capability by creating a more survivable resilient and persistent forward-postured force ”141 This forwardpostured force which would be located on allied and partnered territory or seized terrain is designed to have a “deterrent effect” capable of holding adversary targets at risk via long-range fires 142 Inherent in executing long-range fires is the need to find and fix targets for engagement a central role for ISR Establishing a contemporary Marine Corps vision the Commandant of the Marine Corps General David H Berger published his planning guidance in 2019 It addresses the criticality of ISR by recognizing that “a likely vision of warfare centers on the recon counter-recon contest This demands an agile stealthy tactical system employing forces that are able to locate target and fire precisely first ”143 Marine Corps ISR Enterprise The Marine Corps ISR Enterprise MCISRE is the “mechanism via personnel equipment and processes that merges disparate nodes of the Marine Corps intelligence effort” into a cohesive set of capabilities designed to support decisionmaking 144 In support of the commandant’s planning guidance the Marine Corps Director of Intelligence is drafting the MCISRE 2025 strategy The strategy aims to pursue innovation and disruptive technologies to accelerate capability development of the MCISRE 145 MCISRE integrates data information and intelligence to aid decisionmaking and aims to promote a culture that embraces technology and human-machine teaming allowing for decisionmaking at machine speed that will outpace and outthink any Captain Butera Tony “Navy Information Warfare Needs More Resources – and Command at Sea ” U S Naval Institute January 2019 at https www usni org magazines proceedings 2019 january navy-information-warfare-needsmore-resources-and-command-sea 140 Ibid 141 U S Marine Corps 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan at https www aviation marines mil portals 11 2019%20avplan pdf 142 Ibid 143 U S Marine Corps Commandant’s Planning Guidance July 17 2019 at https www marines mil Portals 1 Publications Commandant's%20Planning%20Guidance_2019 pdf ver 2019-07-17-090732-937 144 U S Marine Corps Marine Corps Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Enterprise https www candp marines mil Programs Focus-Area-4-Modernization-Technology Part-2-Information-Operations Part-22-ISR MCISRE 145 U S Marine Corps Marine Corps Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance Enterprise at https www candp marines mil Programs Focus-Area-4-Modernization-Technology Part-2-Information-Operations Part-22-ISR MCISRE 139 Congressional Research Service 28 ISR Design for Great Power Competition threat 146 Short of a published MCISRE strategy the Marine Corps has pieced out a general ISR vision to support EABO and pursue fulfilling the requirements of the NDS The Marine Corps’ ISR design is predominantly aimed at developing a networked capability of manned aircraft unmanned aircraft and unmanned surface vessels to support decisionmaking and cue rapid targeting of adversary forces It also possesses a reliance on unmanned Navy MQ-4C Triton area surveillance capabilities plus joint and Intelligence Community collection and analytic capabilities 147 The Corps is also teaming with the Navy on unmanned large and medium surface vessels for ISR Airborne Platforms According to the 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan the F-35 will play a significant role in supporting and conducting long-range fires by employing its sophisticated sensors for collection data fusion and targeting across the force 148 In addition unmanned systems will serve an increasingly important role providing both cost-effective persistent surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities for collection deep in enemy territory and smaller expendable unmanned aircraft systems UAS for the close and mid-range fight while also supporting rear area EABO security requirements 149 The Corps requested $24 9 million in FY2021 procurement funds to support its modernization of unmanned air systems for intelligence 150 Surface Vessels The Marine Corps is teaming with the Navy to invest in surface unmanned capabilities such as Large and Medium Unmanned Surface Vehicles which are designed to carry various payloads to include ISR 151 Data Fusion Technology The Aviation Plan also identifies a key enabling capability composed of AI ML and cloud technology called the Tactical ISR Processing Exploitation and Dissemination System TIPS Block 3 TIPS aims to “fuse information collected from unmanned aircraft with information from other off board data systems” and serve as a “digitally interoperable hub for the collection cataloguing and storage of full motion video multi-intelligence sensor data topological data and target information ”152 Future iterations of TIPS Block 3 will use advanced algorithms to analyze the vast amount of data as it is collected and autonomously cue operators to defined areas of interest suggesting an emphasis on developing a data strategy edge computing cloud 146 Ibid Telephone conversation between the author and Mark Costner Headquarters Marine Corps Intelligence Department Marine Air Ground Task Force Branch January 30 2020 148 U S Marine Corps 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan at https www aviation marines mil portals 11 2019%20avplan pdf 149 Ibid 150 U S Navy Supporting Exhibits M-1 O-1 P-1 R-1 C-1 Department of the Navy FY 2021 Budget Office of Budget-2020 January 22 2020 at https www secnav navy mil fmc fmb Documents 21pres Supp_Book pdf 151 CRS Report R45757 Navy Large Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles Background and Issues for Congress by Ronald O'Rourke 152 U S Marine Corps 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan at https www aviation marines mil portals 11 2019%20avplan pdf 147 Congressional Research Service 29 ISR Design for Great Power Competition technology and AI ML capabilities for operating within an integrated information environment 153 Information Warfare Lieutenant General Lori Reynolds the Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Information has prioritized network modernization and all domain ISR for the future Marine Corps information environment 154 Network modernization will adopt AI and incorporate “a mobile cloud” capability All domain ISR modernization will cover a “range of capabilities” by incorporating new AI ML tools and using new intelligence sources to include publicly available information and intelligence support to space and cyber 155 These capabilities will be integrated within a series of “Marine Expeditionary Force Information Groups ” which will serve as the Marine’s focal point for all information warfare capabilities within a deployed force 156 Furthermore the Marines will integrate its Information Groups with the “U S Navy’s distributed maritime operations concept” with the intent to “deter frustrate the adversary’s understanding ” and enable naval power projection against an adversary 157 Operationalizing ISR for Great Power Competition The military services have highlighted a number of focus areas to ensure ISR rapidly delivers decision-quality and target-quality insights to support operational planning operations and assessment Common elements within each service’s ISR modernization revolve around data disruptive technology and human capital while remaining dependent upon a data-centric architecture that connects sensors to shooters Simply stated the DOD ISR enterprise intends to gain access to all domain data make rapid sense of that data securely deliver that data to weapons weapon systems and commanders and ensure a workforce that can execute its mission in the grey zone and highly contested environments at a pace greater than the enemy Data “Data is the currency of future warfare and we must be able to fight at the speed the future will demand ”158 General David L Goldfein USAF Data a critical strategic operational and tactical asset is the foundational element to generating intelligence National security experts advocate that the ability to harness the power of data is 153 Ibid Strout Nathan “The Marine Corps’ 4 Priorities in the Information Environment ” C4ISRNet January 6 2020 at https www c4isrnet com information-warfare 2020 01 06 the-marine-corps-4-priorities-in-the-informationenvironment 155 Ibid 156 Pomerleau Mark “The Navy and Marines want an Integrated Force for Information Warfare ” C4ISRNet December 5 2019 at https www c4isrnet com information-warfare 2019 12 05 the-navy-and-marines-want-anintegrated-force-for-information-warfare 157 Ibid The U S Navy’s Distributed Maritime Operations concept and the Marine Corps’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations build on the vision of distributed lethality to connect ships submarines aircraft and satellites in networks to inform command and control elements and connect sensors with shooters 158 General David L Goldfein Chief of Staff of the Air Force “Fireside Chat with General David L Goldfein ” Center for New American Studies Washington DC January 20 2020 154 Congressional Research Service 30 ISR Design for Great Power Competition fundamental to building and deploying the most effective military in the world 159 Data is not scarce in military ISR However DOD faces significant challenges with harnessing the power of data and making sense of all the data collected Three contributing factors include 1 lack of a DOD data strategy 2 data formats leading to limitations in data discovery and 3 contending with the sheer abundance of data generated across the globe DOD Data Strategy To address the first challenge DOD continues to develop its department-wide data strategy which may be approved very soon by Defense Secretary Esper 160 The strategy will address policies guidance processes and tools to generate data that is discoverable accessible usable and trusted 161 According to Thomas Sasala the Navy’s Chief Data Officer the strategy will focus on “managing and governing information and data by organization or by programs or systems” by grouping “information together and managing like information as a dataset” across “12 information domains ”162 Examples of information domains are “medical information legal information and financial management ”163 However Congress may consider whether the DOD data strategy includes ISR data and is interoperable with data generated from the intelligence community Once the strategy is published the services will execute their implementation plans Challenges with Data Formats Data formats are not standardized neither within a service across the services nor between the elements of the intelligence community Data exists in both structured and unstructured formats and includes various intelligence disciplines e g geospatial intelligence signals intelligence human intelligence publicly available information such as social media and operational data F-35 carrier strike group 164 In addition the data are stored across numerous information technology systems at varying classification levels leading to added challenges with discovering high value data relative to a particular problem set Adding to the complexity each intelligence organization has developed its own unique lexicon for its data For example two analysts possessing different training and expertise and operating under differing organizational standards may both reference a Russian missile differently One will identify the missile as an SS-27 the other may call it an intercontinental ballistic missile They are both correct but the lack of data standardization and specificity impedes discovery research and analytics These factors lead an analyst to spend 80% of their time searching for 159 The White House National Security Strategy December 18 2017 at https www whitehouse gov wp-content uploads 2017 12 NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905 pdf 160 Doubleday Justin “Congress Shift ‘Chief Data Officer’ Away from CMO’s Office as Pentagon Finalizes Data Strategy ” Inside Defense January 6 2020 at https insidedefense com daily-news congress-shifts-chief-data-officeraway-cmos-office-pentagon-finalizes-data-strategy 161 U S Navy Chief Information Officer Data Strategy at https www doncio navy mil TagResults aspx ID 23 162 Sasala Thomas “Interview with Thomas Sasala DON Chief Data Officer Talks about Building an Enterprise Data Architecture ” CHIPS January-March 2020 at “https www doncio navy mil CHIPS ArticleDetails aspx ID 13186 163 Ibid 164 Structured data is highly organized and formatted in a way so it is easily searchable in relational databases Unstructured data has no predefined format or organization making it much more difficult to collect process and analyze Congressional Research Service 31 ISR Design for Great Power Competition data and 20% of their time making sense of the data negatively affecting analyst attempts to discover high-value data in order to generate rapid and accurate insights 165 Keeping Pace with Data Across the globe the volume of data has doubled every two years since 2014 and all signs point to its continued exponential growth 166 In 2017 the Pentagon collected 22 terabytes of data per day and the 3 7 billion users across the globe produced 2 5 quintillion bytes of data per day 167 Intelligence analysts are contending with having access to too much data which can have a debilitating effect when attempting to discover high-value data in order to generate insights especially rapidly It is this challenge that has led DOD toward developing disruptive technology such as AI ML that allows for human-machine teaming to ultimately help analysts make sense of the tidal wave of data 165 U S Air Force Department of Defense Fiscal Year FY 2021 Budget Estimates Air Force Justification Book Volume 3b of 3 Research Development Test Evaluation Air Force Vol-III Part 2 February 10 2020 at https www saffm hq af mil Portals 84 documents FY21 RDTE_ FY21%20Air%20Force%20Research%20Development%20Test%20and%20Evaluation%20Vol%20IIIb%20%20updated pdf ver 2020-02-12-125427-660 166 International Data Corporation The Digital Universe of Opportunities Rich Data and the Increasing Value of the Internet of Things April 2014 at https www emc com leadership digital-universe 2014iview index htm 167 Mehta Aaron “Pentagon Tech Advisers Target How the Military Digests Data ” Defense News April 6 2017 at https www defensenews com pentagon 2017 04 06 pentagon-tech-advisers-target-how-the-military-digests-data and DOMO Data Never Sleeps 5 0 at https www domo com learn data-never-sleeps-5 aid ogsm072517_1 sf100871281 1 Congressional Research Service 32 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Figure 8 How Much Data Is Generated Every Minute Source DOMO Data Never Sleeps 5 0 https www domo com learn data-never-sleeps-5 aid ogsm072517_1 sf100871281 1 Notes Data in this chart are current as of 2017 In 2017 90% of all data was created in the previous two years—2 5 quintillion bytes of data per day Disruptive Technology Artificial intelligence is the sum of data algorithms and computing power 168 Algorithms can automate tasks for a variety of intelligence functions and speed intelligence processes across the 168 CRS Report R45178 Artificial Intelligence and National Security by Kelley M Sayler Congressional Research Service 33 ISR Design for Great Power Competition spectrum of conflict However significant advances in AI ML and cloud technology may be needed to achieve the DOD’s vision for all domain sensor-to-shooter operations Human-Machine Teaming To maintain pace with the demands for intelligence former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon stated that “we are going to have to make machines integrated into all of our processes ”169 This perspective mirrors that of DOD ISR leaders who have advocated for human-machine teaming technology to provide the force better scalability capacity flexibility and collaboration Efforts to advance computing development and training initiatives will give ISR analysts the time and data they need to become more precise and effective in their analysis on warfighter problems 170 A prime example of DOD efforts to produce disruptive technology and enable human-machine teaming is Project Maven Launched in 2017 Project Maven has led the DOD’s AI ML development of computer vision algorithms to improve target characterization and identification of objects within full-motion video and imagery In addition Project Maven is pursuing capabilities to support perception natural language processing recognition and classification detection and tracking of objects 171 DOD has suggested that such AI-enhanced tools could allow human analysts to process up to two to three times as much data within the same time period providing more time-sensitive targeting data and a reduction of collateral damage and civilian casualties 172 Project Maven received $221 million dollars in FY2020 appropriations and DOD requested $800 million for FY2021 RDT E to support both Project Maven and the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center 173 Rear Admiral Parode also suggested a concerted focus on developing human-machine interfaces that spark and capture an analyst’s intellectual curiosity by captivating their interest while simultaneously not creating a training burden 174 Such interfaces may be able to capitalize on human-machine interface technology produced by commercial video game companies However a significant challenge exists with algorithm development and the fielding of AI ML capabilities trust must be earned Commanders and operators alike must gain trust and confidence in an algorithm’s performance Much the same way the U S military gains trust and confidence in its junior workforce training exercise and experimentation will provide opportunities to gain trust and confidence in AI ML performance Corrigan Jack “Spy Agencies Turn to AI to Stay Ahead of Adversaries ” Nextgov June 27 2019 at https www nextgov com emerging-tech 2019 06 spy-agencies-turn-ai-stay-ahead-adversaries 158081 170 U S Air Force Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan 2018-2028 July 24 2018 171 Stone Adam “The Pentagon’s top AI Official explains ‘Computer Vision’ ” C4ISRNet September 13 2019 at https www c4isrnet com thought-leadership 2019 09 13 the-pentagons-top-ai-official-explains-computer-vision 172 CRS Report R45392 U S Ground Forces Robotics and Autonomous Systems RAS and Artificial Intelligence AI Considerations for Congress coordinated by Andrew Feickert 173 Fiscal Year 2020 Department of Defense Appropriations Act P L 116-93 and Department of Defense “Defense Budget Overview Irreversible Implementation of the National Defense Strategy ” Office of the Under Secretary of Defense Comptroller Chief Financial Officer May 13 2020 at https comptroller defense gov Portals 45 Documents defbudget fy2021 fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book pdf 174 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 169 Congressional Research Service 34 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Cloud Technology Cloud technology is likely the only way to achieve the enormous computing power required to run AI ML tools at the scale of America’s defense and intelligence operations 175 Lieutenant General Jack Shanahan who leads the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center stated that DOD AI efforts will be limited until its own enterprise cloud platform is up and running 176 Data algorithms and computer power must all come together for intelligence analysts to capitalize on the potential AI ML can play in helping human analysts make sense of the immense amount of data collected In addition these same capabilities must also come together for the U S military to achieve a sensor-to-shooter network in support of joint all domain operations according to senior defense leaders 177 Human Capital “All of our investments in data science machine learning and artificial intelligence are designed to unleash the incredible talent of the individual Marine ” 178 General David H Berger USMC Shaping the Future ISR Force To harness the power of data algorithms computer power and networked operations the services are pursuing changes to workforce culture recruiting force development talent management and retention 179 The changes are intended to ensure military readiness for digital age military operations in the grey zone and in highly contested fights This is a significant challenge for all services as each competes for a small pool of potential servicemembers who possess the aptitude and skill sets to advance the DOD’s use of data and disruptive technology U S military ISR leaders are pursuing a competency-based assessment recruitment and training methodology Competency examples include critical thinking capacity plus skill sets and tradecraft possessed and then shaping intelligence operators with specific training and education designed to improve necessary competencies This process is not new to the military the services have long screened its members for unique skill sets that support specific functions What is new is the emphasis on human-machine teaming with AI ML in mind to include initiatives such as the Air Force’s computer language initiative The initiative rewards airmen with data skills the same way the services compensate troops with proficiency in languages like Arabic and Farsi 180 The goal is to attract and retain airmen the services need for their increasing Corrigan Jack “Spy Agencies Turn to AI to Stay Ahead of Adversaries ” Nextgov June 27 2019 at https www nextgov com emerging-tech 2019 06 spy-agencies-turn-ai-stay-ahead-adversaries 158081 176 Konkel Frank “Without JEDI Pentagon’s Artificial Intelligence Efforts May be Hindered ” Nextgov March 29 2019 at https www nextgov com it-modernization 2019 03 without-jedi-pentagons-artificial-intelligence-efforts-maybe-hindered 155934 177 Hitchens Theresa “New Joint Warfighting Plan Will Help Define ‘Top Priority’ JADC2 Hyten ” Breaking Defense January 29 2020 at https breakingdefense com 2020 01 new-joint-warfighting-plan-will-help-define-toppriority-jadc2-hyten 178 U S Marine Corps Commandant’s Planning Guidance July 17 2019 at https www marines mil Portals 1 Publications Commandant's%20Planning%20Guidance_2019 pdf ver 2019-07-17-090732-937 179 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 180 Vanden Brook Tom “Artificial Intelligence Young Officer Mike Kaanan Helping Air Force Lead the Charge ” 175 Congressional Research Service 35 ISR Design for Great Power Competition reliance on technology 181 However the challenges with human capital does not end at the young operator executing the mission Senior DOD leaders must also be educated on the importance of data and both the possibilities and limitations of cloud computing and AI ML Education at the senior level will help DOD leaders ask the tough questions on design architecture and integration and determine where to invest money for science and technology and RDT E According to Lieutenant General Shanahan “We need far more national security professionals who understand what this technology can do or equally important what it cannot do ”182 Furthermore “We desperately need more people who grasp the societal implications of new technology who are capable of looking at this new data-driven world through geopolitical international relations humanitarian and even philosophical lenses ”183 Partnering with Industry and Academia To achieve these goals the services are partnering with industry and academia With industry the military is not only pursuing AI ML development but pursuing optimal human-machine interfaces tuned to produce human enjoyment much like a video game according to Rear Admiral Parode 184 In addition the military has much to learn from academia on how young American’s are learning in the digital age and then using that data to optimize military training and education at its technical training courses 185 Issues for Congress Potential policy and oversight issues for Congress include the following DOD Modernization Do DOD-wide modernization programs and budget requests for developing advanced sensing capabilities and connecting those sensors to shooters match the strategies identified in the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy Defense Funding Levels In response to the current global strategic environment and DOD emphasis on Joint All Domain Operations and Joint All Domain Command and Control should military intelligence funding levels in coming years be increased reduced or maintained at about the current level DOD Doctrine Development In response to the global strategic environment what efforts are underway to develop joint and service military doctrine for ISR in support of Joint All Domain Operations within both the grey zone and highly contested environments Operational Concept Development Are U S military services moving at the appropriate speed in their efforts to develop new operational ISR concepts in response to the global strategic environment What are the potential merits of these new operational ISR concepts and what USA Today March 31 2019 at https www usatoday com story news politics 2019 03 29 air-force-pushing-artificialintelligence-ai-research 1907314002 181 Ibid 182 U S Navy Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Director Tells Naval War College Audience to ‘Dive in’ on AI December 12 2019 at https www navy mil submit display asp story_id 111692 183 Ibid 184 Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Intelligence National Security Alliance 2019 Summit Military Service Intelligence Priorities Panel September 24 2019 at https www youtube com watch v 6I8dt2gL9A 185 Ibid Congressional Research Service 36 ISR Design for Great Power Competition steps are the services taking in terms of experiments and exercises to test and refine these concepts Data What is the DOD data strategy and when will it be published How and when will the services implement the strategy Will the strategy address ISR data If so will it emphasize data interoperability between services and mission areas i e intelligence and operational data Service Interoperability To what degree are the U S military services coordinating ISR interoperability with other services How will the services connect their unique data architectures Human Capital Do the services have the necessary human capital resources funding and skill sets to design acquire integrate test evaluate and field AI ML for future DOD ISR operations How are each of the services changing technical training in their school houses to ensure development of a digital age workforce Joint All Domain Command and Control What is the relative priority for JADC2 compared with other major DOD programs What role will humans have in the decision to engage if sensors are linked to shooters in real time Innovation and Speed in Defense Acquisition Policy What are the impacts of Section 804 Authorities on DOD ISR innovation and acquisition Is it supporting service needs Are there any pitfalls with Joint Staff and Office of the Secretary of Defense-Staff oversight aimed at joint interoperability What else does DOD need to drive ISR innovation across the department Effects of COVID-19 Response and Recovery Efforts What impact might COVID-19 response and recovery efforts have on military ISR funding requests across the Future Years Defense Program What effect might COVID-19 have on potential ISR funding intended to support the Indo-Pacific and European Defense Initiatives Author Information John R Hoehn Coordinator Analyst in Military Capabilities and Programs Nishawn S Smagh National Defense Fellow Acknowledgments This report was originally written by Nishawn S Smagh during his military fellowship with the Congressional Research Service Congressional Research Service 37 ISR Design for Great Power Competition Disclaimer This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service CRS CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of Congress Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role CRS Reports as a work of the United States Government are not subject to copyright protection in the United States Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without permission from CRS However as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use copyrighted material Congressional Research Service R46389 · VERSION 3 · NEW 38