n 't _ _ GLOBAL EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR MR PETER LUNN ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS DIVISION DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY r· ' n • ·• G OBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM OBJECT IVES 1 TO REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIGNIFICANT PARAMETERS RELATING TO THE LONG-TERM GLOBAL EFFECTS OF A LARGE-SCALE NUCLEAR EXCHANGE 2 TO DEVELOP A REASONABLE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY FOR GLOBAL EFFECTS 3 TO PROVIDE A SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR ESTIMATING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH AN EXCHANGE r · _ ·O I ¾- GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM ORGANIZATION COGNIZANT ADDST ------ ------------ DR M GILLESPIE PROGRAM COOROINATOR --------------- MR PETER LUNN RAAE DUST------ -------------------FIRES-------------------------ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS-----------BIOMEDICAL EFFECTS------------SCENARIOS POLICY-------------- DR GEORGE ULLRICH SPSS DR MICHAEL FRANKEL SPTD DR LEON WITTWER RAAE DR DAVID AUTON BEHR COL RICHARD WALKER NASW f_ '- GLOBAL EFFttTS PROGRAM SCOPE EXCHANGE SCENARIO SOURCE FUNCTIONS-------- DUST · 1 FI RES I FIREBALL CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION-------- MESOSCALEJ IGLOBAL I APPLICATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS _ - n ' GLOBAL EFFEC'fJ PROGRAM EXCHANGE SCENARIOS t DEVELOP GENERIC EXCHAtiGE SCENARIOS TO PLACE SOURCE TERMS IN CONTEXT OF TARGETING FACTORS • APPLY SCIENTIFIC BOUNDS TO THE SCENARIOS WITH • CONSIDERATION FOR THRESHOLD EFFECTS I I' •- ' r' ' GLOBAL EFFE _ PROGRAM DUST SOURCE FUNCTION I TOTAL DUST SWEEP-UP 1 1 COAGULATION SCAVENGING RAINOUT 1 1 CHARACTERIZE MASS DISTRIBUTION MECHANISM AND EFFECTS OF HUMIDITY ON COALESCENSE AND RAINOUT LOFTING - • • I -- i n GLOBAL EFFEt fS PROGRAM FIRES SOURCE FUNCTION I TOTAL IGNITION AREA----------------- FUEL LOADING TOTAL IGNITED AREA FIRE SPREAD I PARTICULATE PRODUCTION-- ----------- REACTION KINETICS NON-FLAME CONTRIBUTIONS I PARTICULATE LOFTING----------------- LARGE-SCALE FIRE CHARACTERISTICS SCAVENGING1 COAGULATION RAINOUT ATMOSPHERIC INJECTION EXPERIMENTS ---- ' GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM CHEMISTRY I CHEMICAL KINETICS OF FIRES AND FIREBALLS I CHEMICAL CONSEQUENCES OF MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION PROCESSES INCLUDING OPTICAL AND INFRARED ABSORPTIONJ EMISSIONJ SCATTERING - GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION • FULLY-COUPLED 3-D GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL GCM 1 INCLUDE --- PARTICULATE SOURCE FUNCTIONS - HORIZONTAL ADVECTION PROCESSES - VERTICAL MIXING - SOLAR RADIATION - PARTICULATE SCAVENGING - INHOMOGENEITIES - PARTICULATE RADIATIVE CIRCULATION FEEDBACKS - SEASONAL DIFFERENCES AND PARTICULATE SPREADING FY 84 GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM • NEW OR REDIRECTED EFFORT NASA LANGLEY 100K SAi PALOMAR LANL SOK 70K 40K IDA 75K • SUPPORTING EFFORTS SAi IRT • ADDITIONAL 400 - 600K PLANNED 200K 350K MESOSCALE TRANSPORT DIFFUSION SOURCE TERMS POLICY IMPLICATIONS GLOBAL TRANSPORT DIFFUSION CHEMISTRY THERMAL BALANCE SCOPING SOVIET VIEW DUST SMOKE OBSCURATION ESTIMATES -t _ ' FY 85 GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM SOURCE PLUME DYNAMICS • FIRES EARLY-TIME SCAVENGING • MICROSCALE PHYSICS CHEMISTRY • MESOSCALE TRANSPORT DIFFUSION THERMAL BALANCE GLOBAL TRANSPORT DIFFUSION • • 1 40% SPTD 10% RAAE 40% RAAE BEHR SPSS 10% RAAE NASW NATA EXCHANGE SCENARIOS IMPLICATIONS GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM NOT INCLUDING REDIRECTED EFFORTS $l-2M • I ---- n ' GLOBAL EFFECTS PROGRAM 1 PARTICIPANTS· PLANNED AND POTENTIAL AASL AFGL AFWL LANL LLNL NASA AMES NASA LANGLEY NCAR BERKELEY RESEARCH CRT HARVARD IDA IRT MIT MRC PALOMAR CORP PDl PENN STATE PRINCETON PSR RDA SAi · SRI U MIAMI ' · 0 GLOBAL EFFECTS SUMMARY 1 VERY LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL PARAMETERS t SERIOUS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONSEQUENCES STABILITY OF ATMOSPHERE WEATHER AND CLIMATE 1 RESEARCH WILL REDUCE UNCERTAINTIES BUT NOT SOLVE ALL OF THE PROBLEMS · 1 I • r ' 0 P O T E N T I A L G L O B A L · ' ' E F F E C T S SOLAR 50 Km RADIATION 271° K ·STRATOSPHERE DUST 80° K OZONE DEPLETION 20 Km SMOKE HEATING ATMOSPHERIC TROPOSPHERE l Mt 0 Km UV TRAUMA FIRES COOLING -2- -3- 288° K -1- -4-