AIMS Field DocuMent Classification SNS Fror1 SUMMARY ASSESSMENT STANDARD DISTRIBUTION To Subject SUMMARY ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT b 1 b 3 OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT 12 7 86 12 00 1 Entire Cinco CoMplex now under US Control Of initial Adversary force estiMate of 13 persons nine 9 are confirMed killed as Many as four EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE 11IGHTY DERRINGER EXERCISE EX Page 2 of 3 are estiMated to be at large The location of the Leader cannot be Ho ever l'ecord of GOOCH suggests a c I eaver advei'sary and veteran o several well-known successful operations If his body cannot be •• identified it is highly probable that he is Moving toi iard COMUS 3 r JCi-t tii-iD •i 2 Initial estiMates of the Gray Major's plan are confirMeci to elate events Two stolen devices were intend d for placeMent and detonationone in Montrev the other in CONUS One probable device is located a box is apparently confirMed by radiation readings on the second level of the tower at Cinco North4 Extensive booby trapping of Cinco North tower prevents close apprqach to suspected device as of this ry- rf1 Y ' r ' - - A ff l l V _ r- il _ 'W 'W' ''lvy f ti l fl 1 'fi f' '- - t V 411 4I IIC'tl valid estir1ate 3 No inforMation or evidence indicates the priMary goal of this coMbinect operation of t o states initiated by the Gray Major The extensive booby j · trapping of the North tower device seeMs to indicate that the plan scenarid now unfolding requires tir1e for an event prior to either the tiMed o i acciclenta I detonation of the device It is possible that this i iindo r1ay 1 he intended to allow tiMe for a deMand or for coMpletion of another phase V of the operation perhaps installation of the CONUS device BEHAVIORAL ASSESSMENT CONCLUSIONS The adversary appears to have a high degree of resolve in achieving his goals He is planful and prepared to sacrifice his own MeMbers to act ieve the1•1 · He appears fully rational coherent and cold-hloaded intent 011 pursuin9 his course Making no atteMpt to date to coMMunicate any rationale for his actions to iMpose deMands on anyone or to explictly forMulate a threat as in a verbal coMMUnication to anyone l II His irw1ediate objective in Montrev appears pai t ly to be to buy tirie pre suMab y to obtain sufficient tiMe to fully develop the projected CONUS threat The loss of Men in the 12 7 assault strike Might best be evaluated as a loss of pa1 1ns that the adversary 1 1i l l ingly incurred in order to obt · tiMe to put other pie es in place in CONUS ' ' f RATIOWALE 1 ProM to outset the adversary's plan has been very coMplex and coMprehensive involving a nuMher of nations and a nuMber of phases 2 The adversary has Made none of the traditional Moves in a threat naMely a threat a deNand or a rationale for his actions suggesting that he is i · control within a More coMplex plan ' 3 The adversary has set up the Montrev situation in such a way tha if an j EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE MIGHTY DERRINGER EXERCISE EX Page 3 of when he surfaces in CONUS and Makes an explicit threat and deMand he Must be taken seriously 1END DOCUMENT EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE 1 MIGHTY DERRINGER i HNFIOPJ Oib ii GI 191 tX lfffORICIA i 1014 n 111G iir i d5ic 521 I 5 I EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE