EXERCISE MIGHTY DERRINGER I HAZARDS AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS PRIOR TO MONTREV DISABLEMENT Hazard prediction has centered around a variety of yields ranging from near zero to lOkT Fallout dose and exposure rate plots have been made for O lkT lkT and lOkT In order to be prepared for the worst situation a lOkT has been the bases for most of our emergency planning Current wind predictions indicate for a lOkT surface detonation a potential area of concern out 100 miles 20 rad 1-year exposure with the potential for lethal effects out to approximately 35 miles The State Department has been alerted to the fact that both Lathrop Wells and Mercury fall within that 35 mile distance and are not in the projected down wind trajectory but could be affected by slight wind shifts Current wind projections indicate little or no concern for the country of Montrev Current wind out of the north would push any cloud out of Montrev after crossing only 1-1 2 mile of unoccupied Montrev territory and into the U S with the current winds no pre-evacuation is expected to be required of Montrev City inspite of its proximity The Science Advisor of Montrev was given a through briefing on the projected dose levels within the City of Montrev should the winds shift in that direction follow up information will be given to the Science Advisor on the morning of 12 10 86 At this time it is our understanding that there is no intention to evacuate the city Should it become necessary El Jefe has stated that he can perform the evacuation in 1-1 2 hours The small village of Taco Caliente is immediately down wind of the Working Point and in the fallout field The Montrevian Government should be advised again that evacuation of Taco Caliente is required to prevent radiation induced fatalities for even the smallest nuclear yield I I i EXERCISE MIGHTY DERRINGER Cl Ilo J