- ·• Dwight' o• Eisenhower Library j Eise·nhowi r Papers 1953-61 U-nn Whi t rnan file 011A f1t 1J a ·--- ·-·-_L__--___ _ _ • November 20 1958 r '· • c - z r •· ••• • t i • t I • • ' MEMORANIDM SUBJECT ' • • ' ti --- --- L • •• • Discussion at the 387th Meeting ot the National Security Council Thursday November 20 1958 Present at the 387th Meeting ot the National Security Council vere the President o't the United States presiding the Acting Secretary or State the Secretary- ot Def'ense and the Director Office ot Civil and Defense bilization Also present and participating in the Coun cil actions below vere the Secretary ot the Treasury the Attorney General the Director treau ot the ' aid get and the Chairman Atomic Energy Commission Also attending the meeting were the U S Ambassador to NATO the Director ot Central IntelJigence the Deputy Secretary or Defense the Secretary of the Army the Secretary ot the Navy the Secretary ot the Air Force the Chairman Joint Chief's of Sta f't the Acting Chief' or Start U S Army the Chief or Naval Operations the Acting Chief ot Staff u s Air Force the Di rector u s Ictormation Agency the Acting Director International Cooperation Administration the Chairman Interdepartmental Intelligence Conference the Chairman Interdepartmental Committee on Inter cal Security Ihe following members of the Net Evaluation Subcommittee Staff also attended the meeting General Gerald C Ihomas Director Brig General Willard w Smith Deputy Director Lt General Thomas F Rickey Director Designate Colonel Charles L Granger USJ C Colonel Jemes O Beckwith USAF Colonel WilJiam R Calhoun USA Colonel IJ oyd D Chapnan USAF Captain Edward L Ia shiell USN Colonel Kenneth R Dyer USA Captain Iavid L Whelchel USN m R J Smith CIA and Colonel S J West USAF Also attencli ng the meeticg vere the Special Assistants to the President for National Security Affairs and for Science and Technology Ma jar John Eisenhower for the White House Staff Secretary the E cecutive Secretary NSC and the Deputy E cecutive Secretary _NSC There follow a SU Il8 rY of the discussion at the meeting and the main points taken 1 REPORT BY 'IBE NET EVAWATION SUBCOMMITI'EE Actions I os 1266 1330 J 430 1463 1532 1641 and 1815 NSC 5816 NSC Mr Gord on Gray introduced General Thomas the Director or the Net Evaluation Subcommittee Sta ff' and explained the genera1 purpose - · '- Dwight D ·Eisenhower Library EisP nhowP r Papers 1953-61 Ann Whi lman file of the meeting A copy of Mr Gray's remarks are included in the Minutes of the Meeting and another is attached to this Memorandum General Thomas smmnarized the methodology of the report that was about to be given He pointed out the change which had been made last year by the President in the directive to the Subcommittee and also referred to the use made by the Subcommittee of the current National Intel 11gence Estimate of Soviet intentions and capabilities General Thomas also pointed out the assumptions under which this year's evaluation had been developed and noted the participation in · the evaluation of representatives from all four of the military services as veil as representatives of each of the other responsible Government agencies · General Thomas then introduced ig General Willard w Smith Deputy Director of the Net Evaluation Subcommittee Staff who discussed the basic assumptions concerning the assumed Soviet attack on the U S which was mounted by the Soviets in mid-1961 with strategic surprise This was followed by General Smith's discussion or the detailed assumptions made by the u s S R with respect to the nature of the attack which it made on the continental u s General Smith followed with a discussion of the detailed assumpti ns under¥ng the U S retaliatory attack on the Soviet Union · ·' Upon the conclusion of General Smith's portion or the report Colonel Wil 11am R Calhoun USA described the Soviet attack on the continental U S Captain Edward L Iashiell US subsequently described the U S retal iatory attack on the Soviet Union as veil as the U S military posture after the attack on the U S by the Soviet Union Colonel Calhoun next expounded the estimate of the damage inflicted on the U S by the Soviet attack and Captain Iashiell described the damage inflicted on the Soviet Union by the U S retal iatory attack Dr R J Smith of the Central Intel 11gence Agency a lso a member of the Subcommittee Staf C' discussed the potentialities of the Soviet clandestine attack on the U S which concluded the formal presentation In his concluding statement General ' Ibomas emphasized the difficulties involved in attempting to achieve realistic assumptions with regard to the evaluation as a vhole There were obviously many uncertainties with respect to the milltary capabilities of the U S at a period as distant as mid-1961 and of course even more uncertainty as to the military capabilities of the Soviet Union at the same time Despite these uncertainties General Themas believed the assumptions were sufficiently realls ic to bear out the essential validity of the evaluation ✓ 2 u -ight D Eisenhower Library Eisenhower Papers 1953-61 Ann Whitman file General ' Dlomaa also invited the Council to take a back mrd look at the previous reports of' the Net Evaluation Subcommittee in relation to the f'indinga of' the report just rendered There was he pointed out an essential Rim1Jarity in the f'indinga of' all the reports since the f'irst one was delivered in 1954 These findings were listed in a chart described as Recurrent Conclusions Mr Gray reminded the President and the Council that this was General Thoma a' last appe ce as Director of' the Sub ommittee Staf'f' and that his successor JCeneral ' Dlomas F Hickey was present this morning Thereaf'ter Mr Gray presented a reconnnendation in substantially the following language You will recall that the 1957 report involved a retaliatory attack confining itself' to a primarily military target system For 1958 the President directed that the exercise concern itself' with the retaliatory objective of' immediately the Russian nation rather than concentrating on targ of' a military character although not entirely ruling out military targets which the Subcommittee believed would icantly contribute to paralysis of' the Russian nation §5z1ng The presentation ou _have just heard has concluded that a substantial reduction of' - th i e bility of' the USSR to recover would be accomplished by concentration of' a U s retaliatory eff'ort against a combi military-urban industrial target system as opposed to as ctly military target system The conclusion also was that su an ef'f'ort would destroy the Soviet nuclear offensive capability_3 A central aim of our policy is to deter the Communists f'rom use of' their milltary power remaining prepared to fight general war should one be f'orced upon the U S There has been no suggestion f'rom any quarter as to a change in this basic policy However as you know NSC 5410 1 the so-called 'war objectives' paper is in the process of' review These matters are inextricably interwoven In the light of' these facts it seems to me that it is important for you Mr President to have bei'ore you f'or your consideration an appraisal of the relative merits f'rom the pointof' view of' effective deterrencepf r eta J atory efforts directed toward I l Primarily a military target sys or 2 What might be felt to be th optimum mix of a combined military-urban ind target system J 3 right D Eisenhower Library Eisenhower Papers 1953-61 Ann Whi trnan file I F SEORE'P Such appraisal should also take into account the requirements of a counter-force ca'f8-city which might conceivably be called upon in the case of unequivocal 1 1trategic varning of impending Soviet attack on the U S The question here might be whether the character and composition of such a force voul d be adequate to the purposes of l or 2 above and vice versa These me tters have been under intensive study in the Department of Defense If' it is agreeable to you I shall be glad to work w l th Mr McElroy and General Tw1 ning to determine the beet way to accomplish such an appraisal relating it as necessary to the review of the so-called War Objectives paper bearing in mind that the knowledge and views of the State Department and other Federal agencies would be importantly involved When Mr Gray bad concluded bis suggested Council action the President said be was convinced that what Mr Gray proposed to have done '11'8 S essential for the obvious reason that in today's resentation of the U S retaliatory attack on the Soviet Union e u s had as targets every city in the u s s R w l th a population f over 25 000 people In view of this very large number of urban targets the President believed that we 1 1116t get back to the formulation of the series of targets in the Soviet Union destruction of which would moat economically pu-al yze the Russian natio Turning to General Twining and addressing him and other members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff the President sai be could remember well when the mill tary used to have no more · O targats in the Soviet Union and believed that destruction of these targets would be su t ficient Now however a great many more targets had been adde9 He accordingly expressed hie approval of the suggested action by Mr Gray arv McElroy expressed hie view that the dispersal of the °tzu dened t ICBM bases introduced a new element in the picture because even if succeeded in destroying the cities and urban centers of the S et Union these missile sites voul d still enable the Soviet Union retain an add'-on capability w l th their longrange missiles In res e to Secretary McElroy's point the President commented that iri this morning's presentation the Soviets delivered all of their ICBM's in the first two hours of their attack on the U S Secretary McElroy agreed that this was the case but said that there vas some doubt as to whether this was a sound assumption as to the Soviet dse of their ICBM'e The President replied that the presentation asJ ed that ve are trying to destroy the w l ll of the Soviet Union to f5 f lt7 - If in the first thirty hours of the nuclear exchange · 4 · right o Eisenhower Library isenhower Papers 1953-61 Ann Whitman file the U S succeeded in accomplishing the degree of devastation in the Soviet Union that had been outlined in this morning's presentation ve vould already have accomplished our purpos 6 if destroying the vill of the Soviet Union to tight One coula no't ' go on to argue that ve must require a 100 per cent pulverization or the Soviet Union There vas obviously a limit - a human limit - to the devastation vhich human beings could endur • ' Secretary McElroy expressed his agreement to the action recommended by Mr Gray and the President brought the meeting to a concl ision vith an expression or warm congratulations to General Thomae and his associates and also a welcome to General · Hickey who WO'll d be taking over henceforth from General 'lhomae 'nle National Security Council a Noted and discussed the Annual Report for 1958 of the Net Evaluation Subcolll llittee pursuant to NSC 581 6 as presented orally by the Director and other members of the Subcommittee Staff b Noted the President's request for an appraisal of the relative merits rem the point of viev of effective deterrence of alternative retaliatory efforts directed tow rd 1 Primarily a military target system or 2 an optimum m 1x of a combined military-urban industrial target system Such an appraisal is to take into account the requirements of a counter-force capacity and whether ·such a counter-force capacity vould be adequate for 1 or 2 above and vice versa 'Ille Secretary of Defense the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Starr and the Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs are to determine the best means of defining and accomplishing such an appraisal relating it as necessary to the ·current review of NSC 5410 1 and the interests of the Department of State and other Executive agencies · · · · NarE 'nle action in b above as approved by the President subsequently transmitted to the Secretary of Defense the Cbainne n Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Special Assistant to the President for Na tione l Security Affairs for appropriate implementation S EVEREIT GLEASON 5 r ight D Eisenhower Library Eisenhower P pers 1953-61 Ann Whitman file ·--- · rcT·J • '- ·_v L You will recall that the 1957 report involved a retaliatory attack confining itlleli to a primarily military arge_t 11ystc1 11- For 1958 the -- esldent dire ted tha the cxe rclse concern _its U with the retallato17 objective of imme ly paralyzing t ie Rw111i a n nation rather than 1 1 i targeta o a concentratf U tary character although not entirely ruling out particular military target which the Subcommittee believed would significantly contribute to para yaia of the Russian nation The preaentation you ha e Jw t heard has concluded that a substantial e USSR to recover would be accom plished reduction of the capability of by the concentration of a u s_l retaliatory effort against a combined I military-urban industrial tatget ystem as ppposed to a strictly military target system The conclusl was that such an effort would destroy the Soviet nuclear offensive capabllity3A central aim of o policy la to deter the Co 11Ilist from use o their military power r mainfng prepared to fight general war should one be forced upon the United States quarter I aa to a change in this basic policy ----NSC 5410 1 review There ha a been no suggestion from any · However a a you know the 10-called war objectives'' paper la in the proceas of These matters a re inextricably interwoven In the light of these facts it 1eem 1 to m e that it ia important for yoa Mr Preddent to have before you for your consideration a n v appraisal of the relative merits from the point of view of effective deterence · · of retaliatory efforts directed toward · · ' _ ' c s •-1 -r - - ' -- _ 1 Primarily a military target ayaterai trV iW1 - z Wlmt might be felt to be tho opttrnmn nix of a cornbiucd 1 military-urban indnatrlal bu-get gyatem I l i -l- vi L-o h 6 Con th -w r enruFMW akab 1 to recimrcments o a in the e of - C- ' colJllter- orce capacity which mightc w be unequivocal otrategic wm rnln The quoaticn n 0 c re might be whether the chara cte r and compomition of isuch a force would be ad equate to the purposes o 1 or Z above and vi ce versa oi De enae U it ia agreeable to you I ah all be glad to work with Mr Mc Elroy and General 11'wining to determine tho boat way to a ccomplisl •· · r l Q 6 - WaA such an appraisal relating it u necea to the review 0£ is 1 fi bearing in mind tb t the knowledg and viewo 0£ the Stnte Department nd other Federal agcndea WO lld be importantly involved • •