· DECLASSIFIED Alt Ority - 'f818 By J J NARA 02te 14 DEPARTMENT OF STATE Wuhln1Io n D C 20520 November 30 1972 SECRET MEMOMNDUM TO FROM SUBJECT Mr • Spiers - Mr Pickering - Mr Garthoff PM DCA - Mr Martin INR - Mr Perez - Mr • Weiss S PC - Mr Weiss PM j PM ISP - Leon Sloss Soviet Civil Defense and US Assured Destruction In assessing vario s SALT positions e almost never take account of Soviet civil defense I realize that there is a view that Soviet CD is ineffective and inconsequential However if that view is not correct and I believe it is at least exaggerated then we are overlooking an important factor When assured destruction is defined in terms of inflicting c sualties on the USSR civil population Soviet civil defense can make a ·lot of difference The following numbers for a 1981 second strike force having 648 on-line SLBMs including more than 250 Trident· issiles with a total 1 MT -equivalent of 3220 delivered on urban targets are illustrative 1 3220 US surviving force 1 MT equivalents No of Soviet cities attacked 60 000 population Casualties millions No evacuation No evacuation in sheiters -Evacuation SECRET •• r 400 106 6 83 1 6 0 EDAT THE NAT ONALARCHIVES • · DECLASSIFIED AtrJiority 'P 'ilt 41 ey-1 _ NARA Date ' F 2 SECRET Note that 3220 1 MTE means something on the order of 10 000 warheads On t he other hand if Assured Destruction is measured in terms of industrial damage it is almost wholly insensitive to Civil Defense In all cases damage to industry is about 70% apparently referring to the industry in or about the targeted cities Much work needs to be done to evaluate SAL proposed force packag es and to review what we mean by assured destruction -how· much destruction of what and how assured cc U - Mr Custer GLA5SIFIBD DY ELi J - StmiECT TO GENER A L DECLASSIFICATION • SC -lCDULE OF EXECUTIVE onorm 116 2 l UTO ATICr LLY DOWNGiUmED 1 T WO YEl R INTERVALS ND DECLASSIFIED ON DEC 31 o f P L 1 From SRI SSC-TN-89 74-65 Evaluation of US Capabilitie·s Aga inst Soviet Civil Defense PM ISP WTL an 30Nov72 SECRET •·