DECLASSIFIED UNDER AUTHORITY OF THE INTERAGENCY SEC11RITY CLASSIFICATION APPEALS PANEL E O 13526 SECTION 5 3 b 3 1SCAP No document -Z- 3X-30-31-746 THE SECRETARY OF DEFIFNSE WASHINGTON D C 20301 30 Rovember 1976 3mEN'Jr Iu-BUM or THE PItESZDnn SUBJECT Resu its of Simulations of Strategic Nuclear Exchange Tho Chalyn a of the JCS has prepared the attached paper comparing the results of STOP RISOP strLtegic nuclear exchange simulations over a ton--year period Such c7lmulations gl ve useful Indieat_ioan of txondp in the r_apaISil itirs of ti e ITS stud Soviet r ys tesus - d rected t earn other frcm a fully generated posture - to desiz c • major azztegoriec of the opponent's taxgct bash Secsetary of Defense SLC D 67 CaTVTR 1 0 X- _-_ i U0 -AA v 7 -O- 6 - 13 THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF SECFL'Tr PN L 5 crt WASHINGTON D C 2030f CM-1199-76 12 November 1976 1AE1r0 a I DV14 FOR THE Sb'OiftiE'1 kRY OF DL1Fr5NSr1 Subject Nuclear Exchange Simulations A U 1 U On 30 September 1976 you requested a brief analysis of previow nuclear exchange simulation results and the Mci 731 ' lau' iCZ 1 o aE ij 3ii c -1 plished a'D 5 r a ' 'n •ararx'c t7 C nds s over th i Ivai t 't l 1l1 ye irs in 'fha G't ICi c1 5 @ t Z ka has been actrGIl - Force to t a s relevant -to each of the simnlat i ons exeii ined aye provided at Enclooinle A Specific dazave and fatality results ara smfimar -Lzed at Enclosure B tr Can the b 5a r related obs a Vii -C•i t C C •' SJ 7 Gi of the df tta p c ented • s-avera l genera' ' t nay be made i Z l' s • ' ' a is ru tiE VCs ' C 7 i 't 'i•i 5u con-1 hued to dea ease C i C°I1'i t T r N v_ ' 7'6' s' ' • iiic v is i771ti l l 1 ti2t 73Ct t C ' of 'SXOP 'iot'al 1P 'q tC 11naC jG J3as This together with insu-Efi -y 11'l3tr¢ ' kb 1 r p - Ga z a o- ' ' 1 1a C c t 1C7' 610 I nuclea r thre at Softer cQ i1vClntional I'ffilitary targets the weapi no 1a_r- pon l i tted Some prof-1 era-L-ion of 51 1'_ impro• oment in demag expc L'tuncies• d rxpacted Satalit ies in t I1w United states have al-most dou'L t_ed s'• nc 1 96 t he re' als in th USSR have roillaiDed relatively cons4ant she increase in the Vnited E O 13526 section 3 3 b 4 5 E O 13526 section 3 3 b fi eeter-y jqiAt Stag rX Sea Dar cunt Nr X - 3 22 _ A 0 3526 section 3 3 b 4 5 E O 13526 section 3 3 b 6 States is a product of both the two-fold increase in Soviet meg•atonnage and the way it is employed in the R ISOP However even without such restraints r- increases comparable Lo tllo tc in the United States would not be expected di_ie pLiPW3 5 y to the 6emography of the Soviet Union e The 1972 SALT agreement has had no perceptible effect on simulation results _ ' t GE6M3v S BROWN GeneraA USAF Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Attachment afs 2 ENCLOSURE A I E O 13526 section 3 3 b 4 5 FORCE TOTALS E O 13526 section 3 3 b 6 YEAR STOP RISOP Wea - O n Weapons Moc atonz Mmgatons 1966 751 3320 1963 1407 5605 1969 1337 5207 197 x 1323 670 3 1972 1442 1974 1 534 8209 3 975 1 548 7844 Total s i l d icate t ec pans which caGtu l lY axriVG l 7903 and detonate 011 targets in the US and the USSR i-rtii sF r-_F-„iB-_7'S TTTI4 cFTo'Nq3 V'f T ST iT r-C AC7 TyL's f5i7TT TT JAcT Enclosure A ENCLOSURE B S UMMARY DYNAMIC NUCLEAR SIMULATIONS 1966-1976 Introduction The data provided belaer represent the results' of the dynamic simulations conducted annually between the effective versions of the STOP and the Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan RIS OP To facilitate comparison a single standard scenario has been used Sconar o Both the United States and tho USSR are in a fully generated posture following a 30 day period of tension The'USSR launcher a preemptive large scale at-thok against US and allied nuclear offensive capabilities C facilities and other high priority military and urban industrial targets The US retaliates with the most severe SIOP respon se available against a comparable range of Soviet targets simulation recul•ts yeia r Da n ti ry Fat l t i e s Conventional us J'SS R t3S_ USSR Ur anjYz clti t rj al US USSR us 1966 1968 1g69 1971 1972 1974 1975 E 0 13526 section 3 3 b 4 5 E O 13526 section 3 3 b 6 CLASSIFIED BY DIRECTOR JOINT STAFF SUBJECT TO GENERAL DECLASSIFICATION SCHEDULE OF EXECUTIVE ORDER 11652 AUTOMATICALLY DOWNGRADED AT nVO YEAR INTERVALS DECLASSIFIED ON 31 DECEMBER 1986 Enclosure B USSR - _ - _ _ _ _ _ SUSPENSE OASD ISA REFERRAL SLJP 7l jU YECT t • ' 1 1 I t I F RD f ' r Z OSO C c t G' y cl tl t NTROL N C DATE try 1 CLASS' FILE OESG DIN OFC ACTION ASST fNFO DIRIOFC AD III IT AO DT IF i t IA TB S D NE ' J s N I'D L - m _ INFO COOFID WIT STATE OJCS c _ _ RVAAA li L' iL' 1 1t GC I iL LA A M RA PA PA E --ACTION REQUIRED Rep fu 6f cDef Signature Itclartir kfi1 Asst Signature Itep for Uepsee Signature Rep far Mil Asst Signature Hep for ASID ISA Signature Repfor XO Signature Ix e ASST B p _ ACTION COPIES ' Direct Reply Appropriate Action Info and Retention Comments Recommendations Other yg q a NF RM O SHEET COVE AT ION MICE OF THE SECRETARY OF OEFEAS£ S A The attached INFORgtATION COVER SKEET asgem-information contains data i ed disclosure of which would eauae Z FTlfiML toey and storage of the Security Pact of which is para-mount arA unauthor GRAVE DANGER 10'70 NATICN Special care in the handling cua- the attached information must be exercised' In aecordenca with the security refutations This cover sheet is NOT A RAPT but a record of persons who hevR road all or any part of the document identified by number abovo ltach person receiving the attached be IaT-information shall- •ign'end fill in the information required law 1 Sp FOY 1 JAa 50 194 • PREYMS EOITIOISS OF THIS FORK APE 083OlfT€ h a rrrsthrr wtr are rervraa This eras is aeeiaraitiret IN O i 111E T i -11Ta KAW ON