S - STEM II 90063 Thu rsda y December 3 1981 2 30 - 3 30 The Cabinet Room Monitoring Overseas Direct Employment MODE and Civil Defense SUBJECT PARTICIPANTS Preside n t Ron ald Reagan Vic e Pr e sident George Bush St at e Under Secretary Walter J Stoe ssel Richard Kennedy Def ense Deputy Secretary Frank C Carlucci Justice Attorney General William French Smith Commerce Secretary Malcolm H Baldrige CIA Admiral Bobby Inman 0MB William Schneider JCS General David C Jones AID g -Peter McPherson R Thomas Rollis ICA Charles Z Wick FEMA Major General Bennett L Lewis White House · Edwin Meese III James A Baker III RADM James W Nance Janet Colson NSC Colonel Horace Russell Major Chris Shoemaker CRET RPvi PW rm DP Pmh l qR 7 DECLASSIFIED IN PART NLS By MD5'-01 -tt --1q z_f µef NARA Date lp p£ s ---MINUTES OF MEETING Mr 1eese asked Admiral Nance to start the meeting Issue 1 The MODE System Admiral Nance opened the meeting by outlining the Monitoring overseas Direct Employment MODE system He explained that four Presidents since 1968 have placed emphasis on reducing the staffing size of U S missionsabroad He clearly indicated how State controls every mission size and how agencies were complaining He further explained that in response to the complaints the President had asked for a new look at the MODE system and an interagency group recommended the following three options 1 Abolish MODE system and discontinue Presidential overseas personnel ceilings 2 Abolish MODE system retain Presidential overseas personnel ceilings 3 Modify MODE system retain Presidential overseas personnel ceilings Admiral Nance then asked Under Secretary Stoessel to comment on the issue Mr Meese interceded and said Secretary Haig could not be present and the President would not be asked to make a decision now Under Secretary Stoessel confirmed Secretary Haig's strong interest in the MODE system and that Haig believes central control through the MODE system at State is necessary He indicated that the system needs to be streamlined but one must have an orderly system to monitor overseas presence and to preserve the roles of the Ambassadors and the Secretary of State He then outlined the third option which would maintain a central data base at State and revise the appeal mechanism to include a Presidentially-designated decision authority in the Executive Office He then said that other options would take away the authority of State and would weaken the authority of the Ambassadors Deputy Secretary Carlucci said that the MODE system is bureaucracy at its worst ·and violates what the President advocates He then said there is a process the budget process to control the level of overseas personnel He complained that time after time a Presidential decision is later frustrated by the MODE staff He indicated that 0MB had even agreed to increases in staffing that were blocked by MODE He then told the President that Cap cannot be accountable for carrying out decisions if his implementation efforts are frustrated by MODE Deputy Secretary Carlucci finally said that Defense supports overseas control Defense supports the Ambassador's authority and abolishing MODE does not undermine anybody's authority T k • -- _ £ bt v · - i _ t · C R _ _ _ E 3 Aci r iral Inman opened with the comment that for the first time y e sterday he saw Secretary Haig'smemo with the Ambassadors vi ews an d this captures the bure a uc r-atics He _s aid onE i Ambassador cited as requiring to pperate if fectivit i c 0 1 1_ wouldn I t know the MODE s ystem if he ·S t uinbled - over lt- MODE -- - ·· · - --- -- - ····· - · - · - • c·· · · ' ·• • '·- - -•- - - ' 7 ·• r _ • - • i ----- - --' • - - - ' · - Secretary Baldrige said that if the pr blems fi had could be d i s cu ssed with Secreta r y Haig Under Secreta± y st6es se1 · the problems would be res o lved but he must go throUgh the State Department MODE syst'em He then said the odds ·o Lstreamlining the MODE system are essentially zero4 He remarked that under the MODE system Commerce can't move quickly enough tc · exploit emerging foreign commercial opportunities He then noted t hat Commerce is about to lose people in the large foreign industrial cities l ven though they are acceptable to the Ambassadors He closed by' indicating he supports Option 2 or At torney General Smith said he aligned himself with immigration and naturalization in supporting Option 2 He noted that more flexibility is needed Mr McPherson said he was going to break the chain of no support for State and support Option 3 He then noted that AID has more people under the MODE system than other agencies and it has always been comfortable to live with the MODE system r 1 r McPherson then emphasized that the Ambassadors must have control and that the MODE system can prevent our overseas presence from becoming a problem General Jones said if Defense had as many people in overseas missions as AID Defense would not have problems either He then said our military advisors have been sharply reduced from 3000 in 1972 to only 600 in 1981 General Jones indicated that the Soviets have 20 000 military advisors He then said military advisors in Latin America are down from 500 to 100 He pointed out that the U S is losing touch with the emerging military leadership in the Philippines because we-have no military advisors there to develop personal bonds He noted his support for Option 2 and restoring our overseas influence Mr Wick _said he supports State and had no problem 4 Mr Schneider said overseas employment levels could be controlled by the budget p o ess and he would change from an annual review o f personne l ceilings to one e v ery three years He noted that on balance the number of overseas personnel did not warrant an a nnual review but ad h oc interim rev iews would be conducted vice President Bush said an agency must be able to have a special appeal He indicated that some Ambassadors have a very bad opinion about intelligence and the President must maintain a system with flexibility for those circumstances beyond just state Department interest especially intelligence Vice President Bush then said Chiefs of Missions either do or do not like intelligen c e personnel and without a special appeal system Ambassadors ·can override an NSC decision Mr Meese said the President had heard all the views Deputy Secretary Carlucci said Agriculture was unable to attend but they also support Option 2 Vice President Bush said a response was needed from Stoessel Under Secretary Stoessel said an Ambassador's prejudice plays a role but can be overcome with an appeal process He then said central control is necessary and the three year 0MB review is not adequate He noted that the drawdown of personnel was from the previous Administration and indicated that he believes the MODE system can handle any problem He further stated that some kind of system for worldwide management of resources is necessary Admiral Nance said after Secretary Haig's views are presented to the President the NSC staff will send a decision memorandum to the President for a position Issue 2 Civil Defense Mr Meese began the discussion of civil defense by reminding the NSC that civil defense was a part of the President's strategic force modernization decisions In the past civil defense has been given short shrift and therefore it is essential that we now devote our attention to it Mr Meese then turned to General Lewis to describe the program and FEMA's position General Lewis began by providing a brief background of the issue The NSC paper for discussion was the product of an interagency group and therefore represents a general consensus of the strategic importance of civil defense He pointed out that many state and local civil defense officials are looking - RET SEGR£T 5 for guidance to follow u p on the President's October 2 announcemen t s Moreover Congress was waiting for a p rogram it held some of FEM A's budgets hostage last year because it could not get an overall civil defense program from the Administration The consensus now exists that we need to move ahead with civil defense a program which has gone downhill since the Cuban missile crisis Ther is great asym 'Tletry i n civil defense capabilities between the Soviet Union and the U S The main reason however that a civil defense program is needed is that it will save scores of milli on s of Ai 'Tle rican lives General Lewis then outlined the three options presented in the civil defense paper Option 1 was essenti-ally a continuation of our current program to ensure · the survival of 40 percent of the population Options 2 and 3 are similar in that they both acknowledge that an effective civil defense program has three important components population protection industrial protection for defense and population-support industries and blast sheltering for key workers Option 3 has a price tag of some $7 3 billion over five years Both options need $250 million in FY 83 The difference between Options 2 and 3 is that Option 2 defers the decision on industrial protection and blast shelters until 1984 General Lewis then referred to a chart graphically depicting the three options He summarized the arguments for an enhanced civil defense program by reminding the President that civil defense was part of his platform and was referred to in his October 2 speech Civil defense is crucial and can save million of lives An effective program is also useful in dealing with natural disasters Deputy Secretary Carlucci agreed with the importance of civil defense He pointed out that the issue was one of priorities Civil defense is one important need but DOD has other unmet needs as well The DOD is hesitant to make a $7 billion commitment to civil defense now and supports Option 2 Deputy Secretary Carlucci argued that Option 2 would redeem the President's commitment to civil defense and allow for a balanced program Mr Meese asked in whose budget civil defense money is located Deputy Secretary Carlucci and General Lewis responded that it was in FEMA's budget 6 Mr Sc h n ei d er a gree d with Deputy Secretary Carlucci that the i s sue one o f p riori t i es Opti o n 2 with an affi r mati v e de c isio i n 19 8 4 to p r o ceed with blas t sheltering and ind us t rial protection would mean a $7 billion commitment He s Dec u l at e d th at th e resources for c i vil defense will p r o b b l y come f r o m the n ational security budget -De p u ty Secretary Carlucci then asked if he could change his vo te Unde r Secretary Sto e ssel agreed that civil defense is an i mpo rtan t p ar t o f our strategic nuclear deterrent although the maj or p ortion of o ur deterrent remains our offensi v e forc e s Funding is the key civil defense issue The most cost- e ffec t ive program would appear to be population rel oca tion The Department of State supports Option 2 General Jones said that in isolation one could make a strong case for civ il defense The JCS however put the priority on other systems The JCS supports Option 2 Mr Wick said that ICA supports a civil defense program bec a use of its high deterrent value He added that as a private citizen he would prefer to have an 80 percent chance for surv ival as opposed to 40 percent He then said that we must do wha t ever has to be done in order to develop an effective program within responsible resource constraints He asked if we knew what the economic impact of civil defense would be Secretary Baldrige added that much to his chagrin we do not have a credible civil defense program It is es§ential that we show our commitment to a credible program and the beginnings of effective program implementation The Department of Commerce supported Option 2 Mr Meese reiterated the issue of priority He said that for the foreseeable future we need to demonstrate our commitment to ci v il defense but avoid a major increase in expenditures Option 2 therefore appears to be the right balance The President then pointed require investment of some that there was no question has a tremendous advantage advantage in weapons out that both Options 2 and 3 $237 million in FY 83 He added in his mind that the Soviet Uni o n in civil defense just as it has an Deputy Secretary Carlucci said that the Soviet Union is already at Option 3 S T 7 Admiral N pointed out that the Soviet population distribution gi es-Lhe sovie s a further advantage all our population is co ncen trated in relatively fewer targets The President then said that it was obvious that n o one wanted Opt i on l -Mr Schneider said that Option 1 is attractive in that it doe sn't carry with it any substantial budgetary increases General Lewis agreed saying that Option 1 holds us where He characterized Option 1 as not a meaningful civil defense program we are now Secretary Baldrige argued that Option 1 would not help the credibilit y problem The President said that Option 2 does not yet commit us to the most expensive program He lamented that it was a shame we did not have extensive caves near our population centers Attorney General Smith asked what the $237 million would buy General Lewis responded that it would greatly increase our current system of improving population relocation to the point where we could expect in five years to have the capacity to protect 80 percent of the population Deputy Secretary Carlucci added that it would buy no blast shelters General Lewis continued that the money would also be used to improve the responsiveness of state and local civil defense systems Mr Wick asked if FEMA could determine the net cost of the program by considering what the economic impact would be of civil defense expenditures The President pointed out that the Soviets already have underground factories Mr Meese then suggested that we submit a brief Options Paper to the President for his decision The President agreed and said he would like to stew about the issue He then asked if evacuation of cities is practical s 8 Admiral Na n ce responded by saying that JCS estimates that if the Sovietsevacuate their cities prior to a nuclear attack their losses would b e 15 million a number less than they lost in the Second World War or in the purges The U S on the other hand would lose some 150 million people An effective civil defense program can cut that down to less t h an 40 million The President asked how we could care for all the evacuees that leave high-risk areas Mr Meese said that it would be just like a weekend in New Yor k State General Lewis said that it can be done He related the explanations given to him by Dr Edward Teller and outlined some systems that could be put in place early to help with the evacuation itself and to beef-up the host areas He then said that the evacuees would not have to stay in host areas very long nature would take care of most of the radiation and decontamination operations would also be conducted Mr Meese then said that the most important element in the program now is the psychological advantage it would offer The President then said that he did not need an Options Paper He then approved Option 2 The Vice President then related a story about Soviet Ambassador Malik who was in Japan in the Hiroshima bombings The President responded with a joke about the country boy who wanted to be far enough away from a nuclear blast that he could say What was that The meeting adjourned at 3 20 p m s