Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation “Five Years after the Revolution of Dignity Ukraine’s Progress Russia’s Malign Activities” June 18 2019 Dr Alina Polyakova Director Global Democracy and Emerging Technology Fellow Center on the United States and Europe Foreign Policy Program Brookings Institution Dear Chairman Johnson Ranking Member Shaheen Distinguished Members of the Subcommittee It is an honor and privilege to address you on Ukraine’s progress and Russian malign activities five years after Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of the Donbas Thank you for inviting me to speak Ukraine remains a key arena of contestation between Russia and the West In the new and uncertain environment of geostrategic competition ensuring and committing to Ukraine’s success as a democratic society in which Ukrainians are free to determine their path should continue to be a top priority for the United States and our allies Ukraine is a large European country with a population of 45 million people It is rich in natural resources and human capital and its success or failure can tip the balance in the accelerating competition between Russia and the West An unstable Ukraine means a Europe that is less secure and less able to defend itself from future threats For these reasons the United States must continue to support Ukraine’s democratic path its Euro-Atlantic future and its ability to defend itself militarily against continued Russian aggression Deterrence of an increasingly aggressive Russia must start in Ukraine The Kremlin seeks to prevent Ukraine from moving toward the West by keeping it in a permanent “grey zone ” To achieve that goal Russia continues to destabilize Ukraine through conventional and nonconventional military means while seeking to undermine Ukraine’s democratic and economic reform process Russia continues to occupy and militarize Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquartered in Sevastopol is serving as the operational naval base for consolidating and increasing Russian dominance over the Black Sea Over the last two years Russia has engaged in a significant military buildup in Crimea Beginning in January 2017 Russia began deploying S-400 surface-to-air missile systems in Crimea 1 Since then at least five S-400 armed battalions have been positioned in Crimea including in Kerch Sevastopol Feodosia Dzhankoy and Yevpatoriya 2 The S400 system has a range of approximately 250 miles 400 kilometers Combined with additional capabilities currently present in Crimea and surrounding waters including anti-ship cruise “Russia Deploys Second S-400 Division To Annexed Crimea ” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty January 13 2018 https www rferl org a russia-deploys-s400-division-crimea 28973635 html 2 Patrick Tucker “EXCLUSIVE US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea ” Defense One June 12 2019 https www defenseone com threats 2019 06 exclusive-satellite-photos-detail-russian-military-buildup-crimea 157642 1 1 missiles coastal defense cruise missile systems radar systems and combat aircraft Russia now has military dominance in the critical Black Sea region In November 2018 Moscow used these capabilities to open a new front against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait In that attack the Russian coast guard fired on and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels and detained 24 Ukrainian crew members as they transited the Kerch Strait The Ukrainian servicemen remain in Russian custody This event followed a months-long Russian effort to control the Sea of Azov through regular harassment and detention of Ukrainian commercial ships and foreign vessels seeking passage to Ukrainian ports Russia stepped up these aggressive efforts since opening the bridge over the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland by land in May 2018 Today with its naval military dominance and completion of the Kerch Strait bridge Russia has a stranglehold on the Sea of Azov Vessels seeking passage to Ukraine’s two key Sea of Azov ports Mariupol and Berdyansk must pass through the Kerch Strait and navigate increasingly hostile waters facing detentions long shipment delays and harassment As a result since 2014 Ukraine has incurred an estimated $400 million in losses due to the obstruction of ports and Russian aggression in the Black Sea region 3 Russia is de facto engaged in an economic blockade of Ukraine via the sea In Ukraine’s east continued Russian military operations in the Donbas have cost over 13 000 Ukrainian lives and displaced over 1 5 million Ukrainians since 2014 4 The situation in Ukraine’s Donbas is far from a frozen conflict – it is low intensity open warfare On average ten to twelve Ukrainians were killed or injured every month in the Donbas since the beginning of this year 5 Since the beginning of the conflict in 2014 more than 4 000 Ukrainian servicemen have lost their lives 6 According to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights OHCHR there were 40 000-43 000 “conflict related casualties in Ukraine” between April 2014 and January 2019 The Minsk process which was designed to bring a peaceful solution to the conflict has stalled While the dialogue remains an important platform for the Trilateral Contact Group Moscow has little interest or incentive in changing the current status quo In addition to military aggression Russia has also used Ukraine as a test-lab for its arsenal of political warfare This includes information warfare cyber-attacks the use of energy supplies to exert political pressure and the export of corruption to gain a foothold in politics While Russian interference in Western elections came as a surprise to many Russia has a long track record of intervening in Ukraine’s elections since 2004 Ukraine’s experience is thus a bellwether for assessing the Russian tactics that may be deployed against the West 7 Ahead of Ukraine’s presidential elections this spring the Russian media spread disinformation narratives claiming that Ukraine’s presidential candidates were U S puppets that the election systems are controlled by Ukraine’s intelligence agencies and that Western governments are interfering in Ukraine’s electoral David Bond Roman Olearchyk and Max Seddon “Russian bridge to Crimea strangles Ukraine ports ” Financial Times May 16 2019 https www ft com content f5c68dd4-765c-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab 4 “Report on the Human Rights Situation in Ukraine 16 February to 15 May 2019 ” Geneva Switzerland Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights June 2019 https www ohchr org EN Countries ENACARegion Pages UAReports aspx 5 Ibid 6 “Report on the Human Rights Situation in Ukraine 16 November 2018 to 15 February 2019 ” Geneva Switzerland Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights March 2019 https www ohchr org Documents Countries UA ReportUkraine16Nov2018-15Feb2019 pdf 7 Alina Polyakova and Spencer Boyer “The Future of Political Warfare Russia the West and the Coming Age of Global Digital Competition ” Washington DC United States Brookings Institution March 2018 https www brookings edu wpcontent uploads 2018 03 fp_20180316_future_political_warfare pdf 3 2 process 8 Disinformation against then-candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed that he was linked to the Notre Dame fire in Paris9 and that he was a drug addict 10 And in a new and worrying tactic a Russian operator confessed to being tasked with identifying Ukrainians who would be willing to “rent out” their Facebook accounts for the spread of disinformation 11 Of course Russian political warfare does not stop when the ballot box closes Russian disinformation on social media platforms targeted Ukraine well before Moscow launched its information warfare against elections in the U S and Europe and Ukraine remains its top target 12 Russian state media social media trolls and bots spread and amplify false stories about Ukraine to undermine the legitimacy of the government and to divide Ukrainian society Some recent stories claim that Ukrainian children are forced to play with stuffed Adolf Hitler dolls13 and that Ukraine’s national church “is becoming the Christian version of ISIS ”14 There have been at least 15 known Russian-attributed cyber-attacks on Ukraine since 2014 15 A December 2015 cyber-attack caused a blackout affecting over 230 000 Ukrainians 16 The malware used in that attack BlackEnergy has been detected in electric utilities in the United States 17 In June 2017 the “NotPetya” virus which the United States attributed to the Russian military 18 originated in Ukraine and spread to 64 countries including the United States and affected major international companies logistical operators government agencies telecommunication providers and financial institutions Russia has continued to aggressively use natural gas as a tool of political warfare against Ukraine Gazprom Russia’s state owned natural gas monopoly shut off gas exports to Ukraine in 2006 and 2009 In 2009 the gas dispute affected gas supplies to Europe and left Ukrainians without gas for almost three weeks in the middle of winter before reaching a negotiated resolution The current gas transit contract between Ukraine and Russia expires at the end of 2019 Europe imports approximately a third of its gas from Russia 19 41 percent of which is delivered via transit pipelines in Ukraine 20 Negotiations between Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz to renew the transit contract ““Ukraine will turn into a banana republic” Ukrainian Elections on Russian TV ” EU vs Disinfo April 2 2019 https euvsdisinfo eu ukraine-will-turn-into-a-banana-republic-ukrainian-elections-on-russian-tv 9 “Volodymyr Zelensky - the cause of the fire in Notre Dame ” EU vs Disinfo April 15 2019 https euvsdisinfo eu report vladimirzelensky-the-cause-of-the-fire-in-notre-dame 10 Pavel Kalashnik “У Facebook з’явились ролики про «Зеленського-наркомана» але довести причетність до них штабу опонента неможливо — ЧЕСНО ” Hromadske April 9 2019 https hromadske ua posts u-facebook-zyavilis-roliki-pro-zelenskogo-narkomanaale-dovesti-prichetnist-do-nih-shtabu-oponenta-nemozhlivo-chesno 11 Michael Schwirtz and Sheera Frenkel “In Ukraine Russia Tests a New Facebook Tactic in Election Tampering ” The New York Times March 29 2019 https www nytimes com 2019 03 29 world europe ukraine-russia-election-tampering-propaganda html 12 “Ukraine Under Information Fire ” EU vs Disinfo January 7 2019 https euvsdisinfo eu ukraine-under-information-fire 13 “Fake Ukrainian Children Forced to Play with Stuffed Hitler Toy ” StopFake Org August 15 2018 https www stopfake org en fakeukrainian-children-forced-to-play-with-stuffed-hitler-toy 14 “Fake Kiev Patriarchate Becomes a Christian LIH ” StopFake Org November 5 2018 https www stopfake org fejk-kievskijpatriarhat-stanovitsya-hristianskim-igilom 15 Council on Foreign Relations “Cyber Operations Tracker ” https www cfr org interactive cyber-operations 16 Kim Zetter “Inside the Cunning Unprecedented Hack of Ukraine’s Power Grid ” Wired March 3 2016 https www wired com 2016 03 inside-cunning-unprecedented-hack-ukraines-power-grid 17 U S Department of Homeland Security “Russian Government Cyber Activity Targeting Energy and Other Critical Infrastructure Sectors ” March 15 2018 https www us-cert gov ncas alerts TA18-074A 18 “Statement from the Press Secretary ” The White House February 15 2018 https www whitehouse gov briefingsstatements statement-press-secretary-25 19 European Commission “EU imports of energy products – recent developments ” June 2019 https ec europa eu eurostat statisticsexplained pdfscache 46126 pdf 20 “Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets Volume 11 Issue 4 Fourth Quarter of 2018 ” Brussels Belgium European Commission Directorate-General for Energy 2019 https ec europa eu energy sites ener files quarterly_report_on_european_gas_markets_q4_2018 pdf 8 3 have stalled as Gazprom seems unlikely to sign a new contract raising concerns of a potential gas crisis in January 2020 that could also affect supplies to Europe 21 The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is part of Russia’s energy warfare against Ukraine Nord Stream 2 when completed would allow Russia to circumvent Ukraine as a transit route for Europe-bound natural gas enabling Russia to shut off gas to Ukraine without affecting the lucrative European market It would also deprive Ukraine of approximately $3 billion22 in gas transit fees In addition to the economic effects Nord Stream 2 has a military and security objective Currently the line of contact in the Donbas tracks with the gas transit pipelines in Ukraine It makes sense from Moscow’s perspective to avoid any damage to gas pipelines delivering gas to Europe via Ukraine This means that Ukraine’s gas pipelines are de facto acting as a deterrent on further Russian military aggression When Russian gas is no longer flowing via Ukraine that deterrent will also disappear Despite Russia’s determination to see Ukraine fail economically politically and militarily Kyiv has made significant strides the last five years It reformed its energy sector set up an anti-corruption infrastructure and stabilized its economy The economy contracted 17 percent between 2014 and 2015 but returned to growth in 201623 and is forecast by the IMF to grow by 2 7 percent this year 24 The government pushed through painful reforms by raising gas prices to market levels as required by the IMF thus removing a core opportunity for graft The government also launched a transparent online bidding system for public procurement Taken together these economic reforms returned up to $6 billion in annual revenues 25 Lastly one of the most tangible reforms may concern healthcare where primary care is now free and of higher quality These reforms have been achieved through the so-called “sandwich model” of top-down pressure from international institutions such as the IMF and EBRD Western governments including the United States and bottom-up pressure from Ukraine’s thriving and active civil society and reformers in parliament Earlier this year Ukraine held its presidential elections in which a newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy defeated the incumbent Petro Poroshenko with 73 percent of the popular vote The elections were free and fair leading to a peaceful and democratic transfer of power with Poroshenko’s resignation A significant and important milestone for any post-Soviet country For the first time in Ukraine’s history there was no viable pro-Russian candidate The overwhelming support for President Zelenskiy united the country – there was no significant ethnic linguistic or regional divide in the voting The new president has a mandate to reform his country and weed out corruption which remains a top concern for Ukrainians and the international community That’s the good news The bad news is that Ukraine’s new president inherits embattled anti-corruption institutions which have been under constant political attack The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine NABU is meant to investigate high-level corruption and is supported by Ukrainian civil society watchdogs Since 2015 NABU has sent 189 cases to court but convictions remain elusive because Ukraine has failed to reform its judicial sector Former U S Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch has rightfully called Vanessa Dezem “Ukraine Warns of Gas Crisis as Negotiations With Russia Drag On ” Bloomberg June 15 2019 https www bloomberg com news articles 2019-06-15 ukraine-warns-of-gas-crisis-as-negotiations-with-russia-drag-on 22 Vladimir Soldatkin “Gazprom says gas transit via Ukraine to Europe may fall to 10-15 bcm per year ” Reuters April 10 2018 https www reuters com article us-russia-ukraine-gas gazprom-says-gas-transit-via-ukraine-to-europe-may-fall-to-10-15-bcm-peryear-idUSKBN1HH2HL 23 Neil Buckley “Ukraine’s Painful Reforms Start to Bear Fruit ” Financial Times September 11 2018 https www ft com content 3bfd84d2-9405-11e8-95f8-8640db9060a7 24 “Ukraine ” International Monetary Fund https www imf org en Countries UKR 25 Neil Buckley “Ukraine’s Painful Reforms Start to Bear Fruit ” 21 4 for replacing the head of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office SAPO who was recorded coaching suspects on how to avoid corruption charges In 2016 Ukraine launched an e-declaration system which requires public officials to declare their income and assets This system hailed for its transparency was meant to empower anti corruption agencies and civil society to investigate and hold public servants accountable if they held assets that far exceeded their public incomes However the agency charged with verification the National Agency on the Prevention of Corruption has failed to verify asset declarations for more than two years Until the Ukrainian government makes a serious effort to tackle corruption it will remain a threat to Ukraine’s development an obstacle to its European path and a vulnerability that the Kremlin will exploit While with their votes Ukrainians have closed the door to the East they must still work to keep the door to the West open The United States has led the international effort to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression support its democratic development and exert costs on Russia This Administration rightfully approved the sale of 210 Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine last spring 26 U S troops have exercised together with Ukrainian soldiers and U S special operations forces continue to train Ukrainian military forces in Western Ukraine This legislative body has consistently authorized hundreds of millions in military aid to Ukraine with $250 million authorized in the 2019 NDAA 27 These funds and programs have gone a long way to secure Ukraine Since 2014 the U S government has sanctioned 762 individuals and entities under the combined authorities of Ukraine-related executive orders CAATSA and cyber-related authorities 28 This is significant Most recently on March 15 2019 the United States in coordination with the European Union Canada and Australia sanctioned six Russian individuals and eight entities in connection with the Kerch attack and illegitimate elections in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic Coordination of sanctions with U S allies is an important signal of continued Western unity These most recent sanctions however are neither commensurate with the degree of Russian aggression nor do they signal strong Western resolve to impose significant costs on Russia Sanctions against Russian entities and individuals should continue to be a core tool of a U S strategy to deter further Russian aggression It is critical that future sanctions especially those against Russian energy companies be coordinated with European allies However sanctions should comprise one part of a broader U S strategy The United States should continue to put pressure on Kyiv to institute judicial and anti-corruption reforms and remain steadfast on the conditionality of assistance with the EU and international institutions Continued high-level bilateral engagement with the Ukrainian government will also send a signal to Russia that Ukraine remains a priority to the United States Other elements of this strategy should be increased U S investment in countering Russian influence in Ukraine and Eastern Europe supporting independent media and civil society in the region and closing loopholes in our financial system that enable illicit activities The Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act of 2019 DASKA calls for the establishment of a National “News Release Ukraine – Javelin Missiles and Command Launch Units ” Defense Security Cooperation Agency March 1 2018 https www dsca mil major-arms-sales ukraine-javelin-missiles-and-command-launch-units 27 United States 2018 John S McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 Washington D C U S G P O https www congress gov bill 115th-congress house-bill 5515 text 28 The total number of sanctions is searchable at “Sanctions List Search ” Office of Foreign Assets Control https sanctionssearch ofac treas gov 26 5 Fusion Center to Respond to Hybrid Threats a Countering Russian Influence Fund to be used in countries vulnerable to Russian malign influence and closer coordination with allies sections 704 705 706 These efforts are long overdue Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has assured Ukraine’s Western orientation As Ukraine’s new president and following parliamentary elections in July new parliament take up the reigns of governing their country they will need continued international support Ukraine will also need continued U S commitment to its territorial integrity and resolve to impose costs on Russia for escalation Ukraine cannot be permanently relegated to the “grey zone ” Moscow sees a successful democratic Ukraine as a threat to President Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime It is in Russia’s interest to see Ukraine’s democratic and economic reforms fail It should be our mission to ensure that they do not 6