Office of Intelligence T chnica l I ntelligenc Note I ·- '1S i ci TIN000108 September 13 2002 Iraq -Recent Aluminum Tube Procurement Efforts m 1 ct 'I ca j ' 1i li '• · tl ·i ' 8 i f1 g - °F4 i-Ef - ' - -r• Saddam I Huss JS s g 'to liaq's nucl ar weapons gr such po tial indicator a is the aluminum tubes issue discussed in this paper While w e continue to assess that this l · acquisition effort-pi obably is motiv ited by a conventional military rather than nuclear f - application we judge that other indicators collectively do indicate intention to rejuvenate lraq' s 11 1 nuclear weapons Ogram 4 pro econstitrife • 'one Key Judgments i - 1 C f - i •' oL e • -' t Iraq is continuing in its attempt to ·arge num ers o seam ess 7075 T6 aluminum alloy tubes These tubes could be tnodifiedfor use as centrjfage rotors Huwever technical experts at DOE an4 the National Laboratories·believe other conventional military uses are more plausibie The tubes are very sirpilar to those used by Itaq in the past to manufac'fUT'e rocket casings including the Nassr 8J · rocket In 1996 Iraq depfared to the UN and the IA EA an in-country stockpile ofover 65 000 ruch 7075-T6 aluminum qlloy tubes Regardless oftheir end use any Iraqi inventoHes ofsuch tubes including new acquisitions are requjre i to be declared and subjected to UN IAEA - l11f21litmin_ be t r' ' ferisiingJJN Se UdfJ -t Oo -Jq _4' fOl 4fo - _ _ __ • • • _• • I • • • _ _' • • ' Comments eng queries are welcome and may be addressed to DOB Offico ofIntelligence • • - _ J - ' • • l • __ - • • • • ' 1 # Comment •'8 wFt'Our centrifuge expen-s ote that the tubes' specifications and the number of tu'6estlo not match what we would expect tQ see for centrifuge rotors as we understand them One possibility is that Iraq could-modify these tubes or some portion of the tubes to make centrifuge rotors The other is that the tubes are intended for some other specialized-military application Because we observe that the characteristics of these attempted orders align more closely with a rocke_t motor casings application DOE and the National Laboratories assess that this is the more likely int nded end use -ee N'Fr Mor speci f cally several technical aspects of the tubes and their handling seem inconsistent with a gas centrifuge application First is the reported pressure-testing of the tubes Materials intended for use in high-speed rotational equipment such as centrifuges would typically be subjected to a ba of tests such spin testing to determine ultjma t il strength yield streii metallur-gic_ flaws balance Th t cojlduc by Ii v¢ _J9 c d onathe dim ipnal Fnforin to tlf - spe catio tid e amiMf - 7f - • -t · - • • - I '1'• •-•'r J • -r t it • 2 r • b - 1 ln contrast the dimensions of the tubes are consistent with applications to rock et motors previously declared by Iraq According to research by DOE and National Laboratory technical analysts many conventional rocket motors are approximately 80-85 mm in outer diameter 900 izrlength and are composed of high-strength aluminum alloys o o - 8 JNF The Nassr-81 is made at Nassr State Establishment Iraq has manufactured large numbers of these 81 -mm rockets since the 1980s When inspected J ythe IABA in 1996 the lraqis had sixty-six thousand four hundred and 1irty-seven 7075 T6 aluminum tubes with the sam dim mSions as the tubes originally sought by Iraq last year IABA inspectors reportedly reviewed this case and detennined that the factory·was indeed producing rockets for the Nassr-81 Thjs 81-mm rocket was declared by Iraq in its 1996 Full Final and Complete Disclosure on missiles to the UN following the Gulf war -fS#NFt-These procurements are·being conducted at a secmity level consistent with much of Iraq's military and industrial procurement activities and not at a level that we would expect for WMD'procurements e o r e the reported pressures stresses and method of testing are cons1Stenf with rocket motor testing Unlike centrifuges which develop their stresses from the high speed ofroµition solid-fuel rocket motors develop stress from intemal'p sµre d hydrostatic te stin is ·cal for rocket motor cases f ·i sveraI-other features oftlreiatest teportiqg ·als'o appem'W trabk with afi in en use 1 1 soli i- m l i -ogket motor c es 3 • n' o _ · Surface finish ofthe tubes Tube samples obtained purportedly were ano -e on the outside rather than the insj9e We assess that the requirement for anodization is not necessary- and is even problen iatic - for centrifuges Bare aluminum is resistant to UF6 and anocijzation is unnecessary for corrosion resistance either for the aluminum rotors· or for the thousands of feet of aluminum piping in a centrifuge facility Instead anodization would 1ikely introduce uncertainties into the design that would need to be resolved before a centrifuge could be operated In contrast anodization is a standard practice in DllSsile construction in order preclude galling of aluminum parts as they pass e h other during launch