MEMORANDUM THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON ACTION 27870 April 28 1971 SECRET MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM Henry A Kissinger SUBJECT Policy Options Toward Pakistan I do not normally bother you with tactical judgments But in the case of the present situation in Pakistan policy depends on the posture adopted toward several major problems The purpose of this memo is to seek your guidance on the general direction we should be following The Situation Three weeks after the West Pakistani military crackdown these three judgments seem to characterize the situation we must deal with --The West Pakistani military seem likely to regain physical control of the main towns and connecting arteries The resistance is too poorly organized and equipped to prevent that now - -Physical control does not guarantee restoration of essential services like food distribution and normal economic life because that requires Bengali cooperation which may be withheld --Suppression of the resistance even if achieved soon · will leave widespread discontent and hatred in East Pakistan with all that implies for the possibility of effective cooperation between the populace and the military for eventual emergence of an organized resistance movement and for the unity of Pakistan - -Tension between India and Pakistan is at its highest since 1965 and there is danger of a new conflict if the present situation drags on Those judgments suggest that there will probably be an interim period perhaps of some length in which a the West Pakistanis attempt to reestablish effective administration but b even they may recognize the need to move toward greater East Pakistani autonomy in order to draw the necessary Bengali cooperation SECRET SECRET - 2 - What we seem to £ace therefore is a period of transition to greater East Pakistani autonomy and perhaps eventual independence How prolonged and how violent this period is will depend heavily on the judgments made in East and West Pakis an --In the East leaders of the resistance will be faced with the problem of weighing the political disadvantages of cooperating with a West Pakistani a chninistration against the need to restore essential services especially food distribution Without that restoration ' large-scale starvation seems rmavoidable --The West Pakistanis on their part face serious financial difficulties within the next several months They have told us that unless they receive emergency foreign exchange help they will have to default on outstanding external loan repayments and restrict imports to the point of stagnating the economy and possibly bringing on a financial crash It may well be that as these costs become apparent to a wider group in West Pakistan the pressure on President Yahya to let East Pakistan go will mount · Outside actors will also play roles of varying significance - -India will be the most important By training and equipping a relatively small Bengali resistance force India can help keep active resistance alive and increase the chances of a prolonged guerrilla war From all indications ' the Indians intend to follow such a course They could also make it difficult for Yahya to negotiate a political transition in East Pakistan by J ii ecognizing a Bengali government They seem more cautious on this --The US will be an important £actor from outside the area a We stlll have influence in West Pakistan and remain important to India b US economic support- -multiplied by US leadership in ·the World Bank consortium of aid donors--remains crucial to West Pakistan Neither Moscow nor Peking can duplicate this assistance c Our military supply while relatively small and unlikely to affect the outcome of the fighting is an important symbolic element in our posture SECRET SECRET - 3 - --The USSR is concerned that instability will work to China's advantage and ha s shown perhaps more inclination in recent years than the US toward trying to settle disputes in the subcontinent In the short run ' Soviet interests seem to parallel our own although they would certainly like to use this situation to undercut our position in India --Communist China could a be West Pakistan's main ally in threatening India with diversionary military moves and b eventually enter the contest with India for control of the East Pakistani resistance movement For the moment · the Chinese seem to have cast their lot with the West Pakistanis The Options The options are most clearly understood in terms of decisions on our ongoing programs There 9-re three each described in terms of concrete actions that would be taken Option 1 would be essentially a posture of supporting whatever political and military program President Yahya chooses to pursue in the East Specifically --On ec onomic assistance · we would support debt relief and go on with our full development aid program as soon as the West Pakistanis could assure us that the money would go for development purposes not to financing the war effort We would not concern ourselves that most of the aid would go to the West --On food ssistance · we would proceed with all shipments at the request of the govermnent and state no conditions about how they distribute or withhold food from specific areas in East Pakistan --On military assistance · we would allow all shipments but ammunition to proceed We would delay ammunition without taking any formal action Optipn_2 would be to try to maintain a posture of genuine neutrality SP ecifi cally SECRET SECRET - 4 - --On economic assistance ' we would delay all further aid until the IMF and World Bank were satisfied that Pakistan has a satisfactory development plan revised to take account of the recent disruption in economic activity and to assure equitable allocation of resources between E st and West Pakistan --On food assistance instead of deferring to the West Pakistani government on distribution · we would insist before resuming shipments on assural' l ce th t food would be distributed equitably throughout East Pakistan in the cyclone disaster area and in the countryside as well as in the army- controlled towns --On military assistance · we would have to defer all deliveries of _ammunition · death-dealing equipment and spare parts for it Non-lethal equipment and spares might continue Option 3 would be to make a serious effort to help Yahya end the war and establish an arrangement that could be transitional to East Pakistani autonomy Such an effort would have to carry with it the understood possibility that ' if the political effort broke down US aid might have to be reduced by virtue of our being unable to operate in the East But our approach for the time being would be to support emergency help for the Pakistani economy to tide them over while we work with them in restructuring their development program in both West and East We would not withhold aid now for the sake of applying pressure We would face that question only after giving the West Pakistanis every chance to negotiate a settlement in the face of the costs of not doing so Specifically --On economic assistance we would state our willingness to help in the context of a West Pakistani effort to negotiate a viable settlement We would have to point out that it will be beyond US--or World Bank or IMF- -financial capacity to help Pakistan if the situation drags on and Pakistan faces a financial crisis We would also have to point out that US assistance legislation requires that economic aid be reduced to the extent that there is a possibility of its diversion to military purposes We would back World Bank and IMF efforts to provide short-term emergency assistance while helping West Pakistan to reshape the rationale for the development lending program- -but with the intent of providing a framework to move ahead not of SECRET SECRET - 5 - seeking a facade for cutting aid To justify this approach Yahya would have to produce an achninistration in East Pakistan that would have enough Bengali acceptance to win popular cooperation in restoring essential services and preventing a further constitutional crisis soon In the meantime · we would continue to process any loans whose development purposes have not been disrupted by the war --On food assistance we would allow shipments to resume as soon as food could be unloaded and move into the distribution system We would not stipulate destination · except perhaps for that amount committed to the cyclone disaster area It would be implicit in our overall approach however · that our objective would be the broad distribution that would come with restoring essential services --On milita y assistance we would take a line similar to that on economic aid In practical terms this would amount to l allowing enough shipments of non-lethal spares and equipment to continue to avoid giving Yahya the impression we are cutting off military assistance but holding shipment of more controversial items in order not to provoke the Congress to force cutting off all aid Comment on the Options My own recommendation is to try to work within the range described by Option 3 above --Option 1 would have the advantage of preserving our relationship with West Pakistan It would have the disadvantage of encouraging the West Pakistanis in actions that would drag out the present situation and increase the political and economic costs to them and to us --Option 2 would have the advantage of creating a posture that would be publicly defensible The disadvantage would be that the necessary cutback in military and economic assistance would tend to favor East Pakistan We would be doing enough to disrupt our relationship with West Pakistan but not enough to help the East or promote a political settlement --Option 3 would have the advantage of making the most of the relationship with Yahya while engaging in a se ious effort to move the situation toward conditions less damaging to US and Pakistani SECRET SECRET - 6 - interests Its disadvantage is that it might lead to a situation in which progress toward a political settlement had broken down the US had alienated its elf from the 600 million people in India and East Pakistan and the US was unable to influence the West Pakistani government to make the concession necessary for a political settlement If I may have your guidance on the general approach you wish taken I shall calibrate our posture accordingly on other decisions as they come up Prefer Option 1- -unqualified backing for West Pakistan_ _ _ _ _ __ Prefer Option 2- -neutrality which in effect leans toward the East _ __ Prefer Option 3- -an effort to hel settlement I- ----- SECRET