S S s s 9306307 9306307 THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF STATE WASHINGTON WASHINGTON eECRET SECRETDECL OADR March March 31 31 1993 1993 DECL OADR DECLASSIFIED DECLASSIFIED 13526 FER PER E O E 0 13526 o u· o ' l ·f ' o' J O o u- ov-jX-lh 8 1 TO TO THE PRESIDENT FROM Christopher Warren Christopher Warren THE PRESIDENT FROM 10 ' D O • W Russian the Russian of the Yeltsin of Boris Yeltsin President Boris with President Meeting with SUBJECT SUBJECT Meeting Federation Federation I I SETTING SETTING the Yeltsin directly Boris Yeltsin will engage you will Vancouver you At Vancouver At engage Boris directly on on the your of problem policy problem of your important foreign most important toughest and toughest and most foreign policy and its Russia and of Russia transformation ongoing the -Presidency Presidency -- the ongoing transformation of its United the of national security the national implications for implications for the security of the United States States by signalling Your Your Annapolis Annapolis speech speech will will set set the the stage stage by signalling your your personal personal commitment commitment to to aa broad broad and and sustained sustained American American commitment commitment to to the the support support of of democracy democracy and and market market economic economic we that we stringencies budgetary the despite Russia in reform reform in Russia despite the budgetary stringencies that approach we have phased the Yeltsin meet you When confront confront When you meet Yeltsin the phased approach we have put aa credible to put you to will allow developed developed will allow you credible and and innovative innovative to hold out will it But immediately table the on program program on the table immediately But it will also also hold out to both on support substantial more even of prospect the Yeltsin Yeltsin the prospect of even more substantial support on both few next few the next tracks over multilateral G-7 bilateral and the bilateral the and multilateral G-7 tracks over the also are we fashion this in support our phasing By months months By phasing our support in this fashion we are also economic the economic take the to take Russians to the Russians expect the we expect that we signalling signalling that support our if essential be will that steps stabilization stabilization steps that will be essential if our support is is to to effective be be effective you Vancouver you hold center will hold While economics While economics will center stage stage at at Vancouver international and security on Yeltsin engage to need also will will also need to engage Yeltsin on security and international to limit political crisis Russian political issues issues The The Russian crisis is is certain certain to limit would they would when even agreements new reach to ability Yeltsin's Yeltsin's ability to reach new agreements even when they probe to important be will It benefit Russia's to be clearly clearly be to Russia's benefit It will be important to probe on us on with us to cooperate Yeltsin's ability of Yeltsin's the limits the limits of ability to cooperate with of export and Bosnia as such issues sensitive politically politically sensitive issues such as Bosnia and export of afr-art k-Olalogu'e -·open • t need also We technolo_gx - missile missile technology We also need to open a fTairk ialogue with with the the Russians Russians on on the the behavior behavior of of their their military military forces forces in in some some Of the other new independent states of the former Soviet bf the other new independent states of the former Soviet be not be will not host of Union Union These These and and aa host of other other questions questions will public our in and Russians the With Vancouver at resolved resolved at Vancouver With the Russians and in our public SECRET photocopy PHOTOCOPY WJC wjc HANDWRITING handwriting SE€RB¥ - 2 - need we need comment comment we of beginning the the beginning of that and Russia and that Russia represents Vancouver represents that Vancouver underscore that to underscore to engagement Administration's Clinton the the Clinton Administration's engagement haul long haul the long this for in this are in we we are for the only only with with Yeltsin Yeltsin at at Vancouver Vancouver has seized Yeltsin Yeltsin has seized the the initiative initiative in in Russia's Russia's gravest gravest His Union His the of collapse the since crisis political political crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Soviet Union the with confrontation successful far thus and courageous courageous and thus far successful confrontation with the many ordinary rallied many buoyed supporters has buoyed Congress Congress has supporters and and rallied ordinary Russians Russians Yeltsin impeach Yeltsin to impeach failure to Congress' failure the Congress' despite the However despite However All over from far is Russia in crisis political the the political crisis in Russia is far from over All eyes eyes will will Congress the which referendum 25 April the on focus now now focus on the April 25 referendum which the Congress has has but which been forced been forced to to accept accept but which it it is is trying trying to to control control by by referendum the of wording the and rules ground the setting setting the ground rules and the wording of the referendum the Congress these actions will ignore Yeltsin will questions questions Yeltsin ignore these actions of of the Congress political the of heating-up further a for stage the setting setting the stage for a further heating-up of the political not Moreover it vote approaches the vote atmosphere atmosphere as as the approaches Moreover it is is still still not the in participate will regions Russia's of all whether clear clear whether all of Russia's regions will participate in the plebiscite plebiscite the the means the wrangling Behind the Behind wrangling over over the means of of conducting conducting the over disagreements intractable more even lie referendum referendum lie even more intractable disagreements over Russia's Russia’s future future constitution constitution federal federal arrangements arrangements and and the the these now Until reform economic of pace of economic reform Until now these issues nature nature and and pace issues the the Kremlin the confines within the been fought have been have fought out out within confines of of the Kremlin and and the 25 April The dramatically now change will now parliament This parliament This will change dramatically The April 25 town and place in take place to take supposed is referendum referendum is supposed to in every every city city town and will instruments governing instruments will key governing the country village across village across the country The The key law by law which by regions which and regions republics and Russia's eighty-nine be Russia's be eighty-nine republics these to is It referendum the conducting for responsible are are responsible for conducting the referendum It is to these of strongholds are organs governing whose of many -entities entities -- many of whose governing organs are strongholds of turn will battle for the the old old guard guard -— that that the the battle for Russia's Russia's future future will turn background the With With April April 25 25 looming looming in in the the background the Vancouver Vancouver summit summit has has assumed assumed extraordinary extraordinary importance importance for for Yeltsin Yeltsin Yeltsin's gratitude you Yeltsin's to you Kozyrev expressed Foreign Foreign Minister Minister Kozyrev expressed to gratitude will Yeltsin will week Yeltsin past week the past him over the support for for the support given given him over the personal a establishing by support this reinforce to seek seek to reinforce this support by establishing a personal the of the open discussion on aa frank based on you based with you rapport with rapport frank and and open discussion of Russians the reason this For Russia in situation internal internal situation in Russia For this reason the Russians kept small be kept meetings be the meetings that the asked that have asked have small by Kozyrev Yeltsin Yeltsin will will repeat repeat the the warning warning sounded sounded by Kozyrev that that time against race a in is reform economic Russian Russian economic reform is in a race against time and and that that if if must act partners wish we and we and our our partners wish to to influence influence the the outcome outcome we we must act that will stress He will prospects He Russian economic to improve now to now improve Russian economic prospects stress that promises general by helped be not will reformers the and he he and the reformers will not be helped by general promises that perception that The perception be defined to be the specifics with the with specifics to defined later later The figured has aid of promises past honor to failed has West the the West has failed to honor past promises of aid has figured last point last one point debate -political debate Russian political the Russian heavily in heavily in the — at at one Congress the to acknowledge to constrained felt Yeltsin week week Yeltsin felt constrained to acknowledge to the Congress that that it it had had been been aa mistake mistake to to rely rely on on U S U S assistance assistance You You can can SECRET SECRET SEGRE'f OECR'E -- 33 -- president the Russian therefore expect therefore expect the Russian president pass to pass come has time the that message message that the time has come to measures concrete on decisions decisions on concrete measures PHOTOCOPY WJC HANDWRITING Kozyrev's repeat Kozyrev's to repeat to to intentions from from intentions to the specifics Yeltsin the You You will will want want to to explain explain to to Yeltsin specifics of of our our the for prospects of view our and package economic bilateral bilateral economic package and our view of prospects for the summit G-7 early an for press to him expect We process G-7 G-7 process We expect him to press for an early G-7 summit on be on will be possibility will this possibility that this We We have have informed informed the the Russians Russians that and foreign G-7 of meeting 13-14 April the of agenda the the agenda of the April 13-14 meeting of G-7 foreign and be will be it will time it same time the same At the finance finance ministers ministers in in Tokyo Tokyo At to failed that summit a that Yeltsin to stress to important important to stress to Yeltsin that a summit that failed to the to good than harm more do would results concrete deliver deliver concrete results would do more harm than good to the reform cause cause of of Russian Russian reform more taken on has taken policy has In In foreign foreign affairs affairs Russian Russian policy on aa more have critics hardline critics have nationalist nationalist coloration coloration as as Yeltsin's Yeltsin's hardline too being too for being Kozyrev for pounded pounded him him and and Foreign Foreign Minister Minister Kozyrev domestic deepening The States United the to accommodating accommodating to the United States The deepening domestic further even further maneuver even of maneuver crisis crisis has has limited limited Yeltsin's Yeltsin’s freedom freedom of have that II START and Bosnia as such issues on especially especially on issues such as Bosnia and START II that have parliament the parliament sparked sparked criticism criticism from from the that could to avoid On On Bosnia Bosnia Yeltsin Yeltsin will will seek seek to avoid decisions decisions that could that will he II START On travails domestic his to add add to his domestic travails On START II he will argue argue that objective treaty the give to now mood no in is parliament parliament is in no mood now to give the treaty objective be debate should consideration consideration and and that that the the ratification ratification debate should be April his if or -summer or spring this later until deferred deferred until later this spring or summer -- or if his April parliament new a is there until succeeds plebiscite 25 25 plebiscite succeeds until there is a new parliament strong the strong connection the Yeltsin Yeltsin is is likely likely to to note note in in this this connection Ukraine before II START ratifying to parliament in opposition opposition in parliament to ratifying START II before Ukraine lesser on Even NPT the to adhered and I START ratified has has ratified START I and adhered to the NPT Even on lesser the and HEU uranium enriched highly involving -agreements agreements -- involving highly enriched uranium HEU and the the - SSD weapons nuclear of dismantlement secure and safe safe and secure dismantlement of nuclear weapons SSD -- the these lest now closure to come to reluctant be may Russians Russians may be reluctant to come to closure now lest these political controversy accords accords become become caught caught up up in in domestic domestic political controversy to cooperation and to reform and to reform Given Given Yeltsin's Yeltsin’s commitment commitment to cooperation with work with to work ways find to interest our in be will it us with with us it will be in our interest to find ways to There issues hot domestically these of management the in him him in the management of these domestically hot issues There need will you which on however matters sensitive certain are are certain sensitive matters however on which you will need markers firm down lay to to lay down firm markers on proposal on our proposal to our agree to Yeltsin agree that Yeltsin urge that to urge need to will need You will You space the to access for return in ol con 1 tech missile missile technology control in return for access to the space law - -3' Ircnv u e U r aun I Unless this this deal delTI 1s is cone conciudellG launch mjc Unless selling are that enterprises Russian the on san tions 'equires sanctions on the Russian enterprises that are selling absent would absent turn would in turn This in missile missile technology technology to to India India This under available funds of cutoff a to lead waiver presidential presidential waiver lead to a cutoff of funds available under Act Support FREEDOM the the FREEDOM Support Act involvement growing involvement the growing involves the The The second second sensitive sensitive issue issue involves independent new the in conflicts in forces military Russian of of Russian military forces in conflicts in the new independent has involvement has this involvement While this Union the former states states of of the former Soviet Soviet Union While apparent without commanders local by undertaken been often often been undertaken by local commanders without apparent where number of been aa number sanction sanction from from Moscow Moscow there there have have been of cases cases where PHOTOCOPY PHOTOCOPY S'ECRE •GE€RE -- 4 -- WJC WJC HANDWRITING HANDWRITING it it has has had had Moscow's Moscow's tacit tacit approval approval Yeltsin Yeltsin should should understand understand that Russian failure to respect the independence that Russian failure to respect the independence and and territorial new states jeopardize public public territorial integrity integrity of of the the new states would would jeopardize and Congressional support for him and Russian reform and Congressional support for him and Russian reform In judgment both In our our judgment both of of these these issues issues could could best best be be raised raised in your initial one-on-one meeting with Yeltsin The in your initial one-on-one meeting with Yeltsin The intimacy intimacy of of this this meeting meeting will will allow allow for for aa freer freer discussion discussion and and greater greater candor candor II II TOPICS TOPICS oo Stress Stress our our strong strong support support economic reform economic reform in in Russia Russia leadership leadership in in that that effort effort oo Stress Stress the the importance importance of of U S -Russian IF S -Russian partnership partnership oo Emphasize Emphasize the the importance importance we we attach attach to to the the economic economic agenda agenda and outline a package of bilateral assistance and outline a package of bilateral assistance measures measures explaining explaining to to Yeltsin Yeltsin that that while while we we believe believe this this package package is substantial we are prepared to go to Congress is substantial we are prepared to go to Congress and and the the American people to seek additional funding American people to seek additional funding oo Stress Stress the the importance importance of of GOR GOR cooperation cooperation with with the the G-7 G-7 to to put a package of macroeconomic assistance in place put a package of macroeconomic assistance in place and and to to adopt adopt economic economic policies policies to to make make it it effective effective The The ability ability of of the the G-7 G-7 to to provide provide support support is is linked linked to to the the GOR's GOR's ability to stabilize its economy ability to stabilize its economy oo Express Express appreciation appreciation for for Russia's Russia's willingness willingness to to work work closely with us bilaterally and at the UN in closely with us bilaterally and at the UN in seeking seeking aa negotiated settlement regional negotiated settlement to to end end aa number number of of regional conflicts including those in the Middle East conflicts including those in the Middle East and and ex-Yugoslavia ex-Yugoslavia oo Seek Seek Yeltsin's Yeltsin's cooperation cooperation on on aa number number of of arms arms control control issues including the sharing of HEU proceeds issues including the sharing of HEU proceeds and and draft draft security security assurances assurances for for Ukraine Ukraine for for and and building democracy building democracy and and market market President Yeltsin's President Yeltsin's an an active active and and that that benefits benefits effective effective both both sides sides Propose that as soon as Ukraine ratifies START the U S Propose and Russia call a Lisbon II foreign ministers meeting to I exchange instruments of ratification provide security The assurances and discuss implementation of the treaty forum would continue to meet periodically forum would continue to meet 0 Stress Stress the the importance importance of of Russian agreement Russian agreement to to our our technology technology 0 Express Express concern concern regarding regarding certain certain Russian Russian military military in the new independent states of the in the new independent states of the former former Soviet Soviet o o non-proliferation non-proliferation and and press press for for proposal on the control proposal on the control of of missile missile SECRIJ 1 HSECRET actions actions Union Union