Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Message Text SECRET PAGE 01 STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 ORIGIN NODS-00 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 001 R DRAFTED BY IO UNP RBARRY HFO APPROVED BY THE ACTING SECRETARY T D J NYE DRAFT AF WEDMONDSON S PKREISBURG DRAFT IO GHELMAN DRAFT P GMOOSE DRAFT ACDA RWILLIAMSON DRAFT S S DANDERSON ------------------121422 202216Z 65 O 202153Z AUG 77 ZFF6 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO USDEL SECRETARY AIRCRAFT IMMEDIATE USDEL SECRETARY IMMEDIATE INFO WHITE HOUSE IMMEDIATE S E C R E T STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 NODIS CHEROKEE E O 11652 GDS TAGS PGOV TECH US SF SUBJECT CONTINGENCY STATEMENT ON SOUTH AFRICAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOR LAGOS CONFERENCE 1 THE FOLLOWING IS A CONTINGENCY STATEMENT FOR ANDY YOUNG'S USE AT THE LAGOS CONFERENCE PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT SAG HAS NEITHER GIVEN THE ASSURANCES WE HAVE REQUESTED NOR FLATLY REFUSED TO GIVE THEM BY THE TIME THE ISSUE ARISES AT THE LAGOS CONFERENCE AS YOU KNOW THIS IS SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 THE WAY THE SITUATION STANDS AT PRESENT 2 IF YOU AND THE WHITE HOUSE CONCUR IN THIS TEXT WE PROPOSE SENDING IT TO BOWDLER IN PRETORIA WITH INSTRUCTIONS TO TELL SAG THAT IF WE DON'T HAVE THE ASSURANCES WE REQUESTED BY MONDAY ANDY WILL MAKE THE STATEMENT TO THE LAGOS CONFERENCE Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 3 BEGIN TEXT PRESIDENT CARTER HAS MADE THE CURBING OF THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS ONE OF HIS TOP FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES BECAUSE OF HIS DEEP CONVICTION OF ITS IMPORTANCE FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITIES TO INCREASING NUMBERS OF COUNTRIES WOULDTHREATEN REGIONAL STABILITY ENDANGER WORLD SECURITY AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE RISK OF A GLOBAL NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST 4 WE HAVE ADOPTED NEW POLICIES IN THE FIELD OF NONPROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR EXPORTS DESIGNED TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITIES WHILE MEETING THE WORLD'S LEGITIMATE ENERGY NEEDS BUT WE CANNOT ACHIEVE THIS GOAL ALONE ALL NATIONS REGARDLESS OF POLITICAL PERSUASION OR IDEOLOGY MUST REFRAIN FROM CONTRIBUTING TO OTHER NATION'S EFFORTS TO ACQUIRE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY THIS IS A KEY PROVISION OF THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY TO WHICH 1O2 NATIONS HAVE ADHERED THE UNITED STATES HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ALL STEPS IT CAN TOGETHER WITH OTHERS OR INDEPENDENTLY TO URGE THE WIDEST POSSIBLE ADHERENCE TO THIS TREATY 5 IT HAS LONG BEEN A SOURCE OF CONCERN TO US THAT SOUTH AFRICA IS NOT A PARTY TO THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY AND SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 HAS HAD FOR SOME TIME A PILOT URANIUM ENRICHMENT PLANT NOT UNDER INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS IN ORDER TO USE OUR INFLUENCE AS A SUPPLIER TO CREATE AND STRENGTHEN SAFEGUARDS AGAINST NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION WE CONTINUED UNDER STRICT INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS A LIMITED PROGRAM OF PEACEFUL NUCLEAR COOPERATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA WHILE IT IS OUR FIRM DETERMINATION TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD WE WOULD VIEW WITH PARTICULAR CONCERN SOUTH AFRICA'S ACQUISITION OF A NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITY THE INTRODUCTION OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES INTO THE ALREADY TENSE SITUATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA WOULD HAVE TO BE REGARDED WITH UTMOST SERIOUSNESS 6 RECENTLY OUR CONCERN OVER SOUTH AFRICA'S NUCLEAR PLANS HAS GREATLY INCREASED 7 WE HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING INTENSIVE AND URGENT DISCUSSIONS WITH THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR NON-PROLIFERATION POLICY WE HAVE SOUGHT FIRM ASSURANCES WHICH WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE TO US AND MADE PUBLIC TO THE WORLD COMMUNITY WE HAVE ASKED THE SOUTH AFRICANS AT A MINIMUM TO Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 --PROVIDE FIRM ASSURANCES THAT THEY ARE NOT MAKING PREPARATIONS TO TEST NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES --MAKE A SOLEMN PLEDGE THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE OR INTEND TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES FOR ANY PURPOSE PEACEFUL OR OTHERWISE --ASSURE US THAT THERE WILL BE NO NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE TESTING OF ANY KIND IN SOUTH AFRICA WE HAVE ALSO INTENSIFIED OUR EFFORTS TO GET SOUTH AFRICA TO PLACE ALL ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIES UNDER FULL INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS AND TO DECLARE PUBLICLY ITS INTENTION TO SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 ADHERE TO THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY WITHOUT DELAY 8 AT THIS STAGE OF OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT WE HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED THE ASSURANCES THAT WE HAVE REQUESTED WE CONTINUE TO HOPE THEY WILL BE FORTHCOMING AND THAT THERE WILL BE A PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT FROM SOUTH AFRICA THIS WEEK WE ARE MONITORING SOUTH AFRICAN PERFORMANCE CLOSELY WE HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF SOUTH AFRICAN VIOLATION OF SUCH PLEDGES WOULD BE EXTREMELY GRAVE BOTH IN TERMS OF U S SOUTH AFRICAN RELATIONS AND SOUTH AFRICAN TIES WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD 9 IF ADEQUATE SOUTH AFRICAN ASSURANCES ARE NOT FORTHCOMING IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE WE SHALL UNILATERALLY SUSPEND ALL FORMS OF NUCLEAR COOPERATION WITH SOUTH AFRICA FORTHWITH AND INSTITUTE OTHER IMMEDIATE STEPS UNILATERALLY AND IN CONCERT WITH OTHER NATIONS INCLUDING AN URGENT MEETING OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL 1O SOUTH AFRICA NOW HAS A SERIOUS CHOICE TO MAKE IT CAN CHOOSE TO DEFY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND TO REFUSE TO RESOLVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ITS PEACEFUL NUCLEAR INTENTIONS OR IT CAN TAKE THE FAR MORE PROMISING PATH OPEN TO IT PROVIDE THE URGENT ASSURANCES WE HAVE REQUESTED FOLLOWED BY PROMPT ADHERENCE TO THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY RAPID PROGRESS IN THE NAMIBIAN AND RHODESIAN NEGOTIATIONS AND AN END TO THE SYSTEM OF APARTHEID THIS WOULD MARK A DECISIVE TURNING POINT IN SOUTH AFRICA'S RELATIONS WITH US AND THE WORLD 11 THIS IS THE OUTCOME WE PRAY FOR END TEXT SECRET Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 SECRET PAGE 05 12 STATE 199063 TOSEC 090013 PROPOSED TEXT APPROVE DISAPPROVE BRACKETED PORTION PARA 9 APPROVE DISAPPROVE 13 WE HAVE DELIBERATELY OMITTED FROM THE STATEMENT ANY MENTION OF OUR INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION REGARDING SOUTH AFRICA'S NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES SHOULD YOU CONSIDER IT DESIRABLE HOWEVER WE COULD ADD A SECOND SENTENCE TO PARAGRAPH 6 ABOVE AS FOLLOWS WE HAVE OBTAINED EVIDENCE THROUGH NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS THAT CERTAIN RECENT SOUTH AFRICAN ACTIVITIES IN THE KALAHARI DESERT BEAR SOME OF THE EARMARKS OF PREPARATION FOR A NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVE TEST APPROVE DISAPPROVE 14 AFTER FOREGOING WAS DRAFTED WE GOT TELEPHONED STATUS REPORT FROM BOWDLER IN PRETORIA SAYING THAT HE HAD JUST RECEIVED CRYPTIC CALL FROM BRAND FOURIE TO EFFECT THAT THERE WAS NO PROBLEM WITH THE FIRST THREE POINTS I E THE THREE REQUESTED AFFIRMATIONS WE HAD PUT TO HIM AND THAT REGARDING THE LAST PARAGRAPH CONCERNING NPT ADHERENCE FOURIE WANTED TO TALK TO BOWDLER ON SUNDAY FOURIE THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SAY SOMETHING PUBLIC EARLY NEXT WEEK BOWDLER ESTIMATED HE WOULD SEE FOURIE SOMETIME BETWEEN 0900 AND 1300 GMT AUGUST 21 CHRISTOPHER SECRET NNN Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Message Attributes Automatic Decaptioning X Capture Date 01-Jan-1994 12 00 00 am Channel Indicators n a Current Classification UNCLASSIFIED Concepts NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION POLICIES TOSEC DIPLOMATIC COMMUNICATIONS NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS NUCLEAR TESTS CAT-B CHEROKEE 08 20 77 Control Number n a Copy SINGLE Sent Date 20-Aug-1977 12 00 00 am Decaption Date 01-Jan-1960 12 00 00 am Decaption Note Disposition Action RELEASED Disposition Approved on Date Disposition Case Number n a Disposition Comment 25 YEAR REVIEW Disposition Date 22 May 2009 Disposition Event Disposition History n a Disposition Reason Disposition Remarks Document Number 1977STATE199063 Document Source CORE Document Unique ID 00 Drafter RBARRY HFO Enclosure n a Executive Order GS Errors N A Expiration Film Number P840072-1176 Format TEL From STATE Handling Restrictions n a Image Path ISecure 1 Legacy Key link1977 newtext t19770840 aaaabhkb tel Line Count 204 Litigation Code IDs Litigation Codes Litigation History Locator TEXT ON-LINE ON MICROFILM Message ID 14b28457-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc Office ORIGIN NODS Original Classification SECRET Original Handling Restrictions n a Original Previous Classification n a Original Previous Handling Restrictions NODIS Page Count 4 Previous Channel Indicators n a Previous Classification SECRET Previous Handling Restrictions NODIS Reference n a Retention 0 Review Action RELEASED APPROVED Review Content Flags Review Date 13-Oct-2004 12 00 00 am Review Event Review Exemptions n a Review Media Identifier Review Release Date n a Review Release Event n a Review Transfer Date Review Withdrawn Fields n a SAS ID 1537653 Secure OPEN Status NATIVE Subject CONTINGENCY STATEMENT ON SOUTH AFRICAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOR LAGOS CONFERENCE TAGS PGOV TECH MNUC PARM PPDC US SF CARTER JIMMY To SECRETARY AIRCRAFT WHITE HOUSE MULTIPLE Type TE vdkvgwkey odbc SAS SAS dbo SAS_Docs 14b28457-c288-dd11-92da-001cc4696bcc Review Markings Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Markings Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009 Margaret P Grafeld Declassified Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 22 May 2009